Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 8, 2021
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Sunday, March 7, 2021 |
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Tuesday, March 9, 2021 ]
DAY 159
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/09/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.82°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.203
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.83 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 214 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 95.08 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -125
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-03-09 06:58:23 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 28.32998 | 15.31994 | 21.82496 | 213.79550416667 | 0 | 0.47 | 9.36 | 9.83 | T | T | -3.67002 | -17.67002 | 67 | 444.72223473463 | 95.079614389216 | 0.20250258865975 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-09 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 28.32998 | 15.31994 | 21.82496 | 213.79550416667 | 0 | 0.47 | 9.36 | 9.83 | T | T | -3.67002 | -17.67002 | 67 | 444.72223473463 | 95.079614389216 | 0.20250258865975 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.53 | 22.51 | 27.02 | 213.27876186027 | 0.0615 | 0.5315 | 9.36 | 9.8915 | T | T | -0.47 | -14.47 | 67 | 444.5210530189 | 94.806899808696 | 0.32914252597568 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-08 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.1 | 19.48 | 25.29 | 213.5653989494 | 0.0944 | 0.5644 | 9.36 | 9.9244 | T | T | -0.9 | -14.9 | 67 | 444.63268117911 | 94.958155941956 | 0.31039187923988 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-08 02:58:27 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.39 | 17.36 | 24.375 | 213.61499078121 | 0.1039 | 0.5739 | 9.36 | 9.9339 | T | T | -0.61 | -14.61 | 67 | 444.65198601326 | 94.984329893069 | 0.32298737016044 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.38 | 20.58 | 26.48 | 211.63565109506 | 0.1349 | 0.3649 | 9.36 | 9.7249 | T | T | 0.38 | -10.62 | 67 | 443.87958813139 | 93.940745641993 | 0.36745971401876 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.73 | 18.14 | 25.435 | 211.3606687679 | 0.0792 | 0.3092 | 9.36 | 9.6692 | T | T | 0.73 | -10.27 | 67 | 443.77197421016 | 93.795941249511 | 0.38365618194963 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33 | 18.6 | 25.8 | 211.32618257546 | 0.0732 | 0.3032 | 9.36 | 9.6632 | T | T | 1 | -10 | 67 | 443.75847278539 | 93.777784039254 | 0.39629264904849 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.78 | 19.23 | 26.005 | 212.2060366483 | 0.0626 | 0.2926 | 9.36 | 9.6526 | T | T | 0.78 | -10.22 | 67 | 444.10256815327 | 94.241245853139 | 0.38598739720215 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.92 | 19.95 | 25.935 | 212.79714265802 | 0.0793 | 0.3693 | 9.36 | 9.7293 | T | T | -0.079999999999998 | -9.08 | 67 | 444.33330778168 | 94.552858283727 | 0.34653032146206 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.05 | 21.45 | 26.75 | 213.88023314409 | 0.1279 | 0.5979 | 9.36 | 9.9579 | T | T | 0.049999999999997 | -8.95 | 67 | 444.75519681994 | 95.124345187896 | 0.35240110582788 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.71 | 20.08 | 26.395 | 213.41602951388 | 0.0595 | 0.5895 | 9.36 | 9.9495 | T | T | 0.71 | -7.29 | 67 | 444.57452077647 | 94.879329047148 | 0.38272486804118 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33.08 | 20.48 | 26.78 | 213.41019038463 | 0.068 | 0.608 | 9.36 | 9.968 | T | T | 1.08 | -4.92 | 67 | 444.57224672989 | 94.876247814349 | 0.40005846752099 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33.52 | 20.28 | 26.9 | 213.60031951104 | 0.0622 | 0.6522 | 9.36 | 10.0122 | T | T | 1.52 | -4.48 | 67 | 444.64627511559 | 94.976586434083 | 0.42092786720031 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33.68 | 20.67 | 27.175 | 214.27874569294 | 0.1052 | 0.7252 | 9.36 | 10.0852 | T | T | 1.68 | -3.32 | 67 | 444.91013491053 | 95.334785654707 | 0.42857548834881 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.01 | 19.48 | 26.745 | 213.84350235132 | 0.0364 | 0.6064 | 9.36 | 9.9664 | T | T | 2.01 | -2.99 | 67 | 444.74090832315 | 95.104953474727 | 0.44443052506154 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33.91 | 19.03 | 26.47 | 214.15045101883 | 0.0584 | 0.6584 | 9.36 | 10.0184 | T | T | 1.91 | -6.09 | 67 | 444.86027221303 | 95.267027934782 | 0.43961536780831 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.01 | 18.01 | 26.01 | 213.21549483735 | 0.0367 | 0.6767 | 9.35 | 10.0267 | T | T | 2.01 | -6.99 | 67 | 444.49640331181 | 94.773520585551 | 0.44443052506154 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 29.34 | 19.84 | 24.59 | 213.16653066054 | 0.0609 | 0.6609 | 9.35 | 10.0109 | T | T | -2.66 | -11.66 | 67 | 444.47732347205 | 94.747689001817 | 0.2390172716185 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.59 | 19.13 | 26.86 | 213.37731216237 | 0.0395 | 0.7095 | 9.35 | 10.0595 | T | T | 2.59 | -6.41 | 67 | 444.55944168958 | 94.858898764128 | 0.47249810224352 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.24 | 16.98 | 24.11 | 215.10533830038 | 0.0247 | 0.7247 | 9.35 | 10.0747 | T | T | -0.76 | -16.76 | 67 | 445.23100709024 | 95.771566401964 | 0.31644593387438 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.12 | 19.79 | 25.455 | 215.18294314737 | 0.0289 | 0.6489 | 9.42 | 10.0689 | T | T | -0.88 | -15.88 | 67 | 445.26109767321 | 95.812593466347 | 0.3112536590737 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.14 | 19.76 | 25.45 | 215.23561225603 | 0.0286 | 0.6486 | 9.44 | 10.0886 | T | T | -0.86 | -14.86 | 67 | 445.28151626891 | 95.840439780434 | 0.31211647378812 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 22:58:43 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.27 | 18.36 | 25.315 | 216.85279561111 | 0.0086 | 0.6586 | 9.36 | 10.0186 | T | T | 0.27 | -9.73 | 67 | 445.90713314479 | 96.696208405385 | 0.362416159424 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 18:59:48 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.51 | 17.32 | 24.915 | 217.45856152047 | 0.0206 | 0.7206 | 9.33 | 10.0506 | T | T | 0.51 | -11.49 | 67 | 446.14081644772 | 97.017140180289 | 0.37344981350398 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.97 | 19.76 | 26.365 | 217.15254325409 | 0.0208 | 0.7308 | 9.34 | 10.0708 | T | T | 0.97 | -8.03 | 67 | 446.02281024242 | 96.85498759348 | 0.39488293686506 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.65 | 20.53 | 26.59 | 216.98492089692 | 0.0066 | 0.5866 | 9.39 | 9.9766 | T | T | 0.65 | -12.35 | 67 | 445.95813312304 | 96.766190239041 | 0.37993501088577 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 32.69 | 20.53 | 26.61 | 216.87963457723 | 0.0066 | 0.5966 | 9.39 | 9.9866 | T | T | 0.69 | -6.31 | 67 | 445.91749429339 | 96.710423213945 | 0.38179423153789 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 02:58:45 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.29 | 21.18 | 27.735 | 216.59776792163 | 0.0072 | 0.4972 | 9.4 | 9.8972 | T | T | 2.29 | -4.71 | 67 | 445.8086447796 | 96.56115737943 | 0.45795441683508 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.25 | 20.8 | 27.525 | 219.42447345707 | 0.0112 | 0.4212 | 9.41 | 9.8312 | T | T | 2.25 | -15.75 | 67 | 446.89672437926 | 98.060078436609 | 0.45601907672174 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.24 | 20.19 | 27.215 | 219.61329021525 | 0.0114 | 0.4714 | 9.37 | 9.8414 | T | T | 2.24 | -14.76 | 67 | 446.96912736624 | 98.160360685538 | 0.45553540286751 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 33.95 | 19.32 | 26.635 | 220.23555703629 | 0.0193 | 0.4893 | 9.43 | 9.9193 | T | T | 1.95 | -15.05 | 67 | 447.20749389733 | 98.490991529282 | 0.44154039996377 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.81 | 20.45 | 27.63 | 219.61780625378 | 0.015 | 0.495 | 9.28 | 9.775 | T | T | 2.81 | -15.19 | 67 | 446.97085864479 | 98.162759434935 | 0.48318793412388 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.81 | 20.26 | 27.535 | 219.69718864715 | 0.015 | 0.495 | 9.35 | 9.845 | T | T | 2.81 | -13.19 | 67 | 447.0012876128 | 98.204926210188 | 0.48318793412388 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 34.63 | 22.64 | 28.635 | 219.87683179175 | 0.0553 | 0.4353 | 9.39 | 9.8253 | T | T | 2.63 | -15.37 | 67 | 447.07012602113 | 98.300362898264 | 0.47444046167906 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.97 | 19.92 | 25.945 | 226.81908114799 | 0.1704 | 0.7904 | 9.53 | 10.3204 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | -20.03 | 67 | 449.70644462804 | 102.00200255686 | 0.34878405050043 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.93 | 19.72 | 25.825 | 227.6721855265 | 0.1704 | 0.9204 | 9.43 | 10.3504 | T | T | -0.07 | -21.07 | 67 | 450.02721537608 | 102.45867967107 | 0.34698063622253 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 31.98 | 20.43 | 26.205 | 228.29138712769 | 0.2061 | 0.9361 | 9.44 | 10.3761 | T | T | -0.02 | -20.02 | 67 | 450.2596027671 | 102.79038928326 | 0.34923544004165 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 27.74 | 19.91 | 23.825 | 227.67397296907 | 0.2694 | 0.7394 | 9.47 | 10.2094 | T | T | -4.26 | -23.26 | 67 | 450.02788673239 | 102.45963691924 | 0.18280696603466 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 06:58:53 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 27.8 | 19.57 | 23.685 | 227.70198470509 | 0.2694 | 0.7694 | 9.47 | 10.2394 | T | T | -4.2 | -22.2 | 67 | 450.0384074308 | 102.47463856551 | 0.18475369442269 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 28.86 | 21.96 | 25.41 | 228.34585243656 | 0.3802 | 0.8402 | 9.44 | 10.2802 | T | T | -3.14 | -18.14 | 67 | 450.28002620515 | 102.81957641897 | 0.22123263555254 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 25.63 | 17.9 | 21.765 | 236.57895432323 | 0.3729 | 1.2729 | 9.32 | 10.5929 | T | T | -6.37 | -26.37 | 67 | 453.33501234124 | 107.2495231778 | 0.12254909494335 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 25.48 | 18.02 | 21.75 | 235.33084887787 | 0.1995 | 1.0895 | 9.42 | 10.5095 | T | T | -6.52 | -30.52 | 67 | 452.87598696265 | 106.57569044832 | 0.11886891912219 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 27.34 | 20.22 | 23.78 | 234.41224137001 | 0.1098 | 1.0198 | 9.29 | 10.3098 | T | T | -4.66 | -28.66 | 67 | 452.53721271775 | 106.0802623365 | 0.17015733844004 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 10:58:55 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 23.79 | 20.62 | 22.205 | 232.97705070539 | 0.0867 | 0.7767 | 9.41 | 10.1867 | T | T | -8.21 | -35.21 | 67 | 452.00634247177 | 105.3071045692 | 0.082693468826454 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 07:00:46 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 22.64 | 20.1 | 21.37 | 233.33590097702 | 0.0843 | 0.7743 | 9.41 | 10.1843 | T | T | -9.36 | -38.36 | 67 | 452.13926099203 | 105.50032183066 | 0.063278248775317 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 159 | -125 | 27.81 | 26.79 | 27.3 | 232.26810345866 | 0.0753 | 0.8153 | 9.32 | 10.1353 | T | T | -4.19 | -31.19 | 67 | 451.74339128798 | 104.92558074444 | 0.18507939473898 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |