Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 7, 2021
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Saturday, March 6, 2021 |
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Monday, March 8, 2021 ]
DAY 158
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/08/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.33°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.094
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.53 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 213 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 94.61 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -126
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-03-08 07:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 23.93006 | 14.72 | 19.32503 | 213.13605666667 | 0.44000000000005 | 0.74000000000005 | 9.79 | 10.53 | T | T | -8.06994 | -18.06994 | 66 | 443.88128699056 | 94.607107137293 | 0.094116027823486 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-08 02:58:27 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 23.93006 | 14.72 | 19.32503 | 213.13605666667 | 0.44000000000005 | 0.74000000000005 | 9.79 | 10.53 | T | T | -8.06994 | -18.06994 | 66 | 443.88128699056 | 94.607107137293 | 0.094116027823486 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 27.46 | 19.12 | 23.29 | 211.92902090605 | 0.2002 | 0.5002 | 9.79 | 10.2902 | T | T | -4.54 | -14.54 | 66 | 443.40836091608 | 93.9710997905 | 0.18153960492819 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.74 | 19.46 | 24.1 | 212.44111650569 | 0.2621 | 0.5621 | 9.79 | 10.3521 | T | T | -3.26 | -13.26 | 66 | 443.60918108301 | 94.240829721448 | 0.22294489173733 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-07 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.7 | 20.38 | 24.54 | 213.26677600319 | 0.4444 | 0.7444 | 9.79 | 10.5344 | T | T | -3.3 | -13.3 | 66 | 443.93241689074 | 94.67603531359 | 0.22157477250568 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 26.18 | 19.57 | 22.875 | 213.14401841389 | 0.4357 | 0.7957 | 9.79 | 10.5857 | T | T | -5.82 | -11.82 | 66 | 443.88440165454 | 94.611305079897 | 0.14530429245027 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.42 | 19.93 | 24.175 | 213.11380268078 | 0.4488 | 0.8088 | 9.79 | 10.5988 | T | T | -3.58 | -9.58 | 66 | 443.87258081763 | 94.595373603779 | 0.21211943962279 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.42 | 19.62 | 24.02 | 213.34665658209 | 0.4965 | 0.8565 | 9.79 | 10.6465 | T | T | -3.58 | -9.58 | 66 | 443.96365323172 | 94.71816106096 | 0.21211943962279 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.63 | 20.04 | 24.335 | 213.85260132313 | 0.5257 | 0.8857 | 9.79 | 10.6757 | T | T | -3.37 | -9.37 | 66 | 444.16134971883 | 94.985060044564 | 0.21918866049586 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.61 | 19.78 | 24.195 | 213.67998582951 | 0.4739 | 0.8439 | 9.79 | 10.6339 | T | T | -3.39 | -9.39 | 66 | 444.09392925044 | 94.893984509207 | 0.21850963223975 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-06 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 24.65 | 19.63 | 22.14 | 213.88298663832 | 0.4688 | 0.8688 | 9.79 | 10.6588 | T | T | -7.35 | -12.35 | 66 | 444.17321461022 | 95.00109372558 | 0.10880436790558 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.77 | 19.55 | 24.16 | 213.05538738295 | 0.4793 | 0.8993 | 9.79 | 10.6893 | T | T | -3.23 | -13.23 | 66 | 443.84972532587 | 94.56457516912 | 0.22397563473912 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.29 | 19.52 | 24.405 | 212.84338241937 | 0.4368 | 0.8568 | 9.79 | 10.6468 | T | T | -2.71 | -12.71 | 66 | 443.76674805245 | 94.452815660726 | 0.24226564185699 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.33 | 19.44 | 24.385 | 213.2557747316 | 0.5068 | 0.9268 | 9.79 | 10.7168 | T | T | -2.67 | -12.67 | 66 | 443.92811447906 | 94.670233978369 | 0.24370527876761 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 24.64 | 19.17 | 21.905 | 214.95923361549 | 0.5768 | 0.9568 | 9.79 | 10.7468 | T | T | -7.36 | -20.36 | 66 | 444.59287862771 | 95.569344460715 | 0.10858968898017 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 24.76 | 19.1 | 21.93 | 215.01182919843 | 0.5373 | 0.9473 | 9.79 | 10.7373 | T | T | -7.24 | -19.24 | 66 | 444.61335798437 | 95.597131386276 | 0.11118593303863 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-05 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 24.53 | 18.85 | 21.69 | 215.06381829687 | 0.5292 | 0.9692 | 9.79 | 10.7592 | T | T | -7.47 | -18.47 | 66 | 444.63359850312 | 95.624599437159 | 0.10624824396896 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 22:58:43 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 25.07 | 18.83 | 21.95 | 216.80877242384 | 0.5082 | 0.9682 | 9.74 | 10.7082 | T | T | -6.93 | -13.93 | 66 | 445.31140013608 | 96.547418009843 | 0.11809713029274 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 18:59:48 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 25.57 | 18.54 | 22.055 | 217.34489795499 | 0.517 | 0.987 | 9.74 | 10.727 | T | T | -6.43 | -16.43 | 66 | 445.51904759724 | 96.831291937025 | 0.12987246709151 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 25.63 | 19.46 | 22.545 | 217.0398996576 | 0.5168 | 1.0068 | 9.74 | 10.7468 | T | T | -6.37 | -13.37 | 66 | 445.40095299463 | 96.669778145353 | 0.13133814909343 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 25.4 | 18.94 | 22.17 | 216.9494048857 | 0.4179 | 0.9279 | 9.74 | 10.6679 | T | T | -6.6 | -16.6 | 66 | 445.3658960349 | 96.62186610116 | 0.12578116636091 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 27.59 | 20.15 | 23.87 | 216.84375784198 | 0.4076 | 0.9376 | 9.74 | 10.6776 | T | T | -4.41 | -11.41 | 66 | 445.32495900859 | 96.565937572249 | 0.1855115209966 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-04 02:58:45 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 27.77 | 19.79 | 23.78 | 216.57713306054 | 0.3243 | 0.8643 | 9.73 | 10.5943 | T | T | -4.23 | -11.23 | 66 | 445.22159608359 | 96.424816856419 | 0.19109916256106 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.49 | 19.61 | 24.55 | 219.37942332382 | 0.2414 | 0.8414 | 9.68 | 10.5214 | T | T | -2.51 | -21.51 | 66 | 446.30447462591 | 97.910018270273 | 0.24950965559944 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.5 | 19.78 | 24.64 | 219.56424746579 | 0.275 | 0.845 | 9.68 | 10.525 | T | T | -2.5 | -20.5 | 66 | 446.3756249465 | 98.008128178448 | 0.24987484878115 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.85 | 19.79 | 24.82 | 220.13019109846 | 0.2599 | 0.9299 | 9.67 | 10.5999 | T | T | -2.15 | -21.15 | 66 | 446.59328427507 | 98.308665010758 | 0.26283304065722 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.12 | 21.49 | 25.305 | 219.55360852154 | 0.2702 | 0.8202 | 9.64 | 10.4602 | T | T | -2.88 | -21.88 | 66 | 446.37153026035 | 98.002480209944 | 0.23619884991631 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.99 | 21.43 | 25.21 | 219.63249577539 | 0.2702 | 0.8602 | 9.67 | 10.5302 | T | T | -3.01 | -20.01 | 66 | 446.40188952739 | 98.044361115753 | 0.23161649151159 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-03 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.66 | 21.08 | 24.87 | 219.53250955408 | 0.1974 | 0.8274 | 9.64 | 10.4674 | T | T | -3.34 | -22.34 | 66 | 446.36340942335 | 97.991279443825 | 0.22020946971567 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 30.12 | 19.47 | 24.795 | 225.47396919409 | 0.3287 | 1.0887 | 9.76 | 10.8487 | T | T | -1.88 | -23.88 | 66 | 448.63312514147 | 101.1550914376 | 0.27305875371362 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 30.12 | 19.58 | 24.85 | 226.29954251298 | 0.3715 | 1.1915 | 9.69 | 10.8815 | T | T | -1.88 | -24.88 | 66 | 448.94580329386 | 101.59622989852 | 0.27305875371362 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 30.56 | 22.75 | 26.655 | 226.31975484945 | 0.4368 | 1.1868 | 9.68 | 10.8668 | T | T | -1.44 | -24.44 | 66 | 448.95345030691 | 101.60703481228 | 0.29013386931769 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 27.28 | 16.26 | 21.77 | 225.19289218422 | 0.2995 | 0.9095 | 9.73 | 10.6395 | T | T | -4.72 | -22.72 | 66 | 448.52652015483 | 101.00498429499 | 0.17612843808208 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 06:58:53 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 26.97 | 16.14 | 21.555 | 225.14281984914 | 0.2995 | 0.9295 | 9.74 | 10.6695 | T | T | -5.03 | -22.03 | 66 | 448.50752107018 | 100.97824801729 | 0.16705077706151 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-02 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.95 | 21.13 | 25.54 | 224.88801308575 | 0.2699 | 0.8899 | 9.71 | 10.5999 | T | T | -2.05 | -19.05 | 66 | 448.41080159105 | 100.842214216 | 0.26659742312623 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 26.23 | 17.57 | 21.9 | 232.08516380804 | 0.5096 | 1.1996 | 9.72 | 10.9196 | T | T | -5.77 | -23.77 | 66 | 451.11875106953 | 104.69796923885 | 0.14662159899341 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 22.64 | 17.8 | 20.22 | 233.05590449035 | 0.5096 | 1.1596 | 9.85 | 11.0096 | T | T | -9.36 | -28.36 | 66 | 451.48022103705 | 105.22013127329 | 0.071531364024231 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 25.69 | 17.76 | 21.725 | 233.16927927873 | 0.6107 | 1.1007 | 9.8 | 10.9007 | T | T | -6.31 | -28.31 | 66 | 451.52237975759 | 105.2811478663 | 0.13281517906204 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 10:58:54 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 23.46 | 17.76 | 20.61 | 231.96655911637 | 0.4617 | 1.0317 | 9.77 | 10.8017 | T | T | -8.54 | -30.54 | 66 | 451.07452568856 | 104.63420562902 | 0.085346560701659 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 07:00:46 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 23.4 | 17.75 | 20.575 | 232.27652072832 | 0.4617 | 1.0317 | 9.77 | 10.8017 | T | T | -8.6 | -32.6 | 66 | 451.19007625813 | 104.80086110038 | 0.084272620920226 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-03-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 28.12 | 23.09 | 25.605 | 231.45738293329 | 0.3358 | 1.1458 | 9.61 | 10.7558 | T | T | -3.88 | -30.88 | 66 | 450.88451235436 | 104.36054923469 | 0.20225485153701 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.46 | 22.19 | 25.825 | 239.99860540625 | 1.137 | 1.537 | 9.22 | 10.757 | T | T | -2.54 | -18.54 | 66 | 454.03962167042 | 108.96887600009 | 0.24841577734821 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.45 | 22.26 | 25.855 | 238.07114129199 | 0.9437 | 1.3337 | 9.22 | 10.5537 | T | T | -2.55 | -16.55 | 66 | 453.33358907757 | 107.92564493769 | 0.24805171922838 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 14:58:47 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 30.49 | 22.41 | 26.45 | 238.60272659851 | 0.894 | 1.354 | 9.21 | 10.564 | T | T | -1.51 | -15.51 | 66 | 453.52865478133 | 108.21317362138 | 0.28738421903022 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 10:58:57 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 26.94 | 23.52 | 25.23 | 232.76282637486 | 0.2897 | 0.7697 | 9.23 | 9.9997 | T | T | -5.06 | -26.06 | 66 | 451.37118287754 | 105.06243227074 | 0.16618855305676 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 30.79 | 25.68 | 28.235 | 232.33928261731 | 0.2212 | 0.7012 | 9.27 | 9.9712 | T | T | -1.21 | -25.21 | 66 | 451.21346218559 | 104.83461211147 | 0.29925403380441 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-28 02:58:57 | FORECAST | 2021 | 158 | -126 | 29.11 | 25.79 | 27.45 | 231.54504028502 | 0.1009 | 0.6109 | 9.36 | 9.9709 | T | T | -2.89 | -16.89 | 66 | 450.91724166094 | 104.40765088559 | 0.23584460024853 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |