Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 5, 2021

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DAY 156 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.07°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.62°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.683 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -11 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.27 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.48 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.41 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 211 in SWE DAY: 64 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 93.22 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-06 07:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	156	-128	37.07006	24.17	30.62003	210.98218958333	0.26999999999998	0.47999999999998	11.41	11.89	T	T	5.07006	-10.92994	64	441.85492146557	93.223518808978	0.68315773526273	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-06 03:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	156	-128	37.07006	24.17	30.62003	210.98218958333	0.26999999999998	0.47999999999998	11.41	11.89	T	T	5.07006	-10.92994	64	441.85492146557	93.223518808978	0.68315773526273	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-05 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	32.89	23.11	28	211.11056356698	0.2612	0.4712	11.41	11.8812	T	T	0.89	-15.11	64	441.90579477703	93.290981378894	0.44308927291452	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-05 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	33.8	23.29	28.545	211.51615861782	0.33	0.54	11.41	11.95	T	T	1.8	-14.2	64	442.06641903745	93.504190808737	0.49671435628298	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-05 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.28	24.28	29.78	211.50019970337	0.3452	0.5552	11.41	11.9652	T	T	3.28	-12.72	64	442.06010209506	93.495799873997	0.58362293281239	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-04 22:58:40	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.59	25.54	32.065	213.13600234265	0.3223	0.4823	11.41	11.8923	T	T	6.59	-8.41	64	442.7062640073	94.356643322566	0.7586293585413	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-04 18:59:47	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	36.4	26.09	31.245	213.07395159966	0.2942	0.4542	11.41	11.8642	T	T	4.4	-10.6	64	442.68180216762	94.323960889115	0.64699098214094	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-04 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.64	26.27	32.455	213.02665229817	0.2981	0.4581	11.41	11.8681	T	T	6.64	-8.36	64	442.66315309806	94.299049600232	0.76093528541274	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-04 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	36.3	25.61	30.955	213.42377921943	0.3487	0.5087	11.41	11.9187	T	T	4.3	-10.7	64	442.81966192631	94.508245760981	0.64146757307949	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-04 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	39.95	25.67	32.81	213.47802539219	0.3487	0.5087	11.41	11.9187	T	T	7.95	-9.05	64	442.84102824191	94.536828271732	0.8168929603314	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-04 02:58:45	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	40.4	25.56	32.98	213.69557220039	0.3716	0.5216	11.41	11.9316	T	T	8.4	-8.6	64	442.92668533835	94.651471466202	0.83406123626263	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-03 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.11	26.3	32.205	217.15570866065	0.4253	0.5253	11.41	11.9353	T	T	6.11	-19.89	64	444.28273879827	96.478532989431	0.73589124507657	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-03 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.04	26.28	32.16	217.09354952346	0.3857	0.4857	11.41	11.8957	T	T	6.04	-19.96	64	444.25848314384	96.445651011604	0.73248651103878	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-03 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.99	26.69	31.34	217.56971788361	0.4596	0.5496	11.41	11.9596	T	T	3.99	-22.01	64	444.4441952568	96.697598177032	0.62416077706602	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-03 11:00:07	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.59	27.06	31.325	216.76867081386	0.343	0.403	11.41	11.813	T	T	3.59	-22.41	64	444.13164708034	96.273826803976	0.60145983584522	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-03 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.8	27.28	32.54	216.83222604079	0.3806	0.4706	11.41	11.8806	T	T	5.8	-20.2	64	444.15646794458	96.307435654838	0.72064781453008	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-03 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.63	27.4	32.515	217.36978756805	0.4544	0.5144	11.41	11.9244	T	T	5.63	-23.37	64	444.36624707917	96.59179673001	0.7121110664163	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-02 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	34.91	27.95	31.43	221.77970268056	0.4733	0.6433	11.42	12.0633	T	T	2.91	-25.09	64	446.07641114292	98.930693836088	0.56210918162016	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-02 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.33	27.16	31.245	221.51353104835	0.4377	0.5377	11.42	11.9577	T	T	3.33	-24.67	64	445.973732161	98.789216165793	0.58651255916575	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-02 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.35	26.9	31.125	221.69341126567	0.4565	0.5465	11.42	11.9665	T	T	3.35	-25.65	64	446.04313077222	98.884823232513	0.5876671085459	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-02 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.53	27.31	31.42	222.055467734	0.4387	0.5787	11.42	11.9987	T	T	3.53	-25.47	64	446.18271771355	99.077312076708	0.59802279078168	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-02 06:58:53	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.25	27.49	31.37	221.82898991897	0.4308	0.5708	11.43	12.0008	T	T	3.25	-24.75	64	446.09541668541	98.956895690807	0.58188697488434	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-02 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	35.16	27.49	31.325	221.78018135895	0.4275	0.5275	11.44	11.9675	T	T	3.16	-24.84	64	446.07659573647	98.930948302417	0.57666965390367	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-01 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.15	29.32	33.235	225.27351756407	0.304	0.424	11.43	11.854	T	T	5.15	-24.85	64	447.41777703168	100.79137645262	0.68736629917823	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-01 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.5	29.42	33.46	225.81639878771	0.2706	0.5106	11.44	11.9506	T	T	5.5	-27.5	64	447.62513672507	101.08109638211	0.70550104547284	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-01 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.6	29.42	33.51	225.2178628962	0.1905	0.3805	11.44	11.8205	T	T	5.6	-27.4	64	447.39650293116	100.76168425739	0.71059190238373	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-01 10:58:54	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.2	28.37	32.785	225.37855740932	0.3438	0.4938	11.45	11.9438	T	T	5.2	-25.8	64	447.45792051499	100.84742062704	0.68998631714534	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-01 07:00:46	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	37.24	28.37	32.805	225.52801489612	0.3438	0.5138	11.43	11.9438	T	T	5.24	-27.76	64	447.51502080161	100.92717427758	0.6920754222092	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-01 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	34.99	28.68	31.835	225.81979449968	0.4065	0.4165	11.43	11.8465	T	T	2.99	-33.01	64	447.62643285647	101.08290908027	0.56677867052837	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-28 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	40.95	28	34.475	226.9586283158	0.1297	0.1497	11.03	11.1797	T	T	8.95	-21.05	64	448.06049178079	101.69119461707	0.85358624073257	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-28 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	40.99	28	34.495	226.89175786808	0.1191	0.1391	11.03	11.1691	T	T	8.99	-19.01	64	448.03503923838	101.65545763929	0.8549436250644	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-28 14:58:47	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	41.54	29.01	35.275	226.87187528209	0.0936	0.1136	11.02	11.1336	T	T	9.54	-19.46	64	448.02747060172	101.6448324333	0.87275168702755	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-28 10:58:57	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	42.33	27.44	34.885	227.27943233407	0.1661	0.1861	11.04	11.2261	T	T	10.33	-25.67	64	448.18253760548	101.86267272902	0.89558215955266	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-28 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	42.34	27.44	34.89	227.6969833809	0.1661	0.1861	11.08	11.2661	T	T	10.34	-28.66	64	448.34124072715	102.08594803882	0.89585082687781	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-28 02:58:57	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	42.5	30.15	36.325	227.60127185874	0.1602	0.1802	11.17	11.3502	T	T	10.5	-19.5	64	448.30487748613	102.03476029632	0.90008175617033	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-27 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	44.08	27.62	35.85	225.7614855433	0.2275	0.2475	10.88	11.1275	T	T	12.08	-25.92	64	447.60417497929	101.05178347871	0.93533855788893	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-27 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	44.79	27.86	36.325	225.4234604984	0.1537	0.1937	10.89	11.0837	T	T	12.79	-21.21	64	447.47507803433	100.87138057729	0.9476369276287	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-27 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	44.6	28.1	36.35	225.59209958244	0.1537	0.2037	10.89	11.0937	T	T	12.6	-21.4	64	447.53949773996	100.96137494123	0.94454320370288	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-02-27 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	43.4	31.9	37.65	225.11387307972	0.013	0.073	10.89	10.963	T	T	11.4	-24.6	64	447.35674456977	100.70620941843	0.92156969013109	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2021-02-27 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	43.45	31.84	37.645	225.41238363944	0.013	0.073	10.89	10.963	T	T	11.45	-25.55	64	447.47084573626	100.86546994656	0.92265208272891	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2021-02-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	42.34	24.17	33.255	226.04934313183	0.709	1.269	10.85	12.119	T	T	10.34	-21.66	64	447.71402485171	101.20546122864	0.89585082687781	89	5	1	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2021-02-26 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.94	23.46	31.2	219.24127770873	0.8096	1.0296	10.11	11.1396	T	T	6.94	-26.06	64	445.09435089477	97.583054191108	0.77451516259671	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-02-26 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.66	25.29	31.975	216.27931695068	0.4778	0.7878	10.05	10.8378	T	T	6.66	-26.34	64	443.94040051982	96.015126591237	0.76185427858736	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-02-26 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	38.7	31.49	35.095	215.65666685382	0.4038	0.7138	10.05	10.7638	T	T	6.7	-28.3	64	443.69671595603	95.686154857064	0.76368645286542	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-02-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	33.88	29.99	31.935	220.0541557147	0.2745	0.5145	10.15	10.6645	T	T	1.88	-39.12	64	445.40952478386	98.014216923597	0.5014456964151	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-26 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	33.88	31.21	32.545	220.14409660644	0.2222	0.4622	10.25	10.7122	T	T	1.88	-42.12	64	445.44435723346	98.061945611596	0.5014456964151	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-26 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	156	-128	33.93	33.29	33.61	221.91090909351	0.0271	0.1371	10.61	10.7471	T	T	1.93	-38.07	64	446.12700009308	99.000448161817	0.5044027229811	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L