MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 31, 2021

[ Tuesday, March 30, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 1, 2021 ]

DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.959
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 31

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 219 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 100.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-01 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021182-10354.5799225.3700639.97499218.5855208333300.165.355.51TF22.5799230.5799289458.71103517206 100.267590535080.9590213560696890 5112127WETL
2021-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2021182-10236.5636.5636.56219.9750720.00010.16015.355.5101TF4.56-4.4490459.72748555054101.128586734360.41201356446151902112124WETL
2021-03-31 12:00:03FORECAST2021182-10248.4938.0443.265220.218321333330.00510.16515.355.5151TF16.497.4990459.81282952774101.259209446130.85892012689761905112127WETL
2021-03-31 08:00:03FORECAST2021182-10244.6928.6336.66220.324536742910.00650.16655.355.5165TF12.693.6990459.85007864568101.31625554880.74599900248203904112126WETL
2021-03-31 04:00:08FORECAST2021182-10248.628.6538.625220.687274702770.01080.17085.355.5208TF16.67.690459.97721297375101.511117556550.86158249735111905112127WETL
2021-03-30 23:57:06FORECAST2021182-10349.0325.5137.27223.218571918670.00990.17995.355.5299TF17.0330.0389460.33940384453102.756304324070.87166105129587905112127WETL
2021-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2021182-10349.0629.139.08223.203915921350.00810.17815.355.5281TF17.0630.0689460.33428288638102.748414573090.87234474133014905112127WETL
2021-03-30 16:00:05FORECAST2021182-10349.2229.2239.22223.186076869820.00150.17155.355.5215TF17.2230.2289460.32804947869102.738811436290.87594843826911905112127WETL
2021-03-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021182-10345.6129.5937.6223.223167784790.00180.17185.355.5218TF13.6126.6189460.34100964877102.758778435050.7769825761991904112126WETL
2021-03-30 08:00:05FORECAST2021182-10345.5229.6937.605223.301883999130.00230.17235.355.5223TF13.5222.5289460.36851033178102.801155690960.77404969095525904112126WETL
2021-03-30 04:00:09FORECAST2021182-10348.929.6639.28222.934346223960.00250.17255.355.5225TF16.929.989460.2400584182102.603316529540.86866912723073905112127WETL
2021-03-30 00:00:04FORECAST2021182-10348.3828.7538.565219.265035391770.00470.02475.355.3747TF16.3821.3889458.95106352902100.631921187780.85622334194052905111123.5WETL
2021-03-29 20:01:31FORECAST2021182-10348.6429.4839.06219.221681770610.00440.07445.355.4244TF16.6428.6489458.93576188008100.608669544030.86254211159439905111123.5WETL
2021-03-29 16:00:06FORECAST2021182-10348.7128.4838.595219.217531472920.00330.07335.355.4233TF16.7128.7189458.93429694525100.606443684590.8642105164308905111123.5WETL
2021-03-29 12:00:06FORECAST2021182-10344.4829.5237219.616815022220.00250.07255.355.4225TF12.4824.4889459.07516176865100.820624883440.73862326965994904111123WETL
2021-03-29 07:57:32FORECAST2021182-10348.3230.1839.25219.709347325020.00170.11175.355.4617TF16.3223.3289459.1077862208100.87027206240.85473784332005905112127WETL
2021-03-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021182-10348.4730.1539.31220.208821014330.00180.18185.355.5318TF16.4727.4789459.28375514457101.138334231420.85843236382282905112127WETL
2021-03-29 00:00:07FORECAST2021182-10348.1829.7338.955230.032583868310.00260.282655.2826TF16.1812.1889462.69976132058106.436021651820.85123175685394905112127WETL
2021-03-28 20:00:04FORECAST2021182-10347.5328.1837.855225.290359814110.00270.31275.966.2727TF15.5326.5389461.06139330108103.872687193190.834219923301904112126WETL
2021-03-28 16:00:07FORECAST2021182-10347.5929.7938.69225.514752669070.00310.35315.966.3131TF15.5926.5989461.13936331745103.993729464510.83584084600554904112126WETL
2021-03-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021182-10342.2329.4335.83231.172805828870.00180.42185.966.3818TF10.2320.2389463.09075688797107.053989623210.65334149562355903112125WETL
2021-03-28 08:00:06FORECAST2021182-10341.2628.134.68231.737038826970.00170.42176.066.4817TF9.2618.2689463.28382062157107.360020727290.61365177914835903112125WETL
2021-03-28 00:00:06FORECAST2021182-10346.5529.4538231.807838984830.00230.43235.986.4123TF14.5527.5589463.30802679572107.398432475840.80629461544083904112126WETL
2021-03-27 20:00:06FORECAST2021182-10346.3728.0637.215232.060906558680.0020.42266.422TF14.3739.3789463.39451359111107.535750918270.80087074070688904112126WETL
2021-03-27 16:00:05FORECAST2021182-10346.3730.2838.325232.56611515030.0020.4326.036.462TF14.3741.3789463.56700434628107.809977312670.80087074070688904112126WETL
2021-03-27 12:00:07FORECAST2021182-10345.5229.337.41232.746236603550.00190.41196.096.5019TF13.5235.5289463.6284487757107.907776634890.77404969095525904112126WETL
2021-03-27 08:00:07FORECAST2021182-10343.7129.3836.545232.990717673370.0040.4146.136.544TT11.7129.7189463.71180309758108.040545797320.71067052595109904112126WETL
2021-03-27 04:00:09FORECAST2021182-10349.2828.2238.75232.924076484480.0040.4146.16.514TT17.2837.2889463.68908732422108.004352440930.87728135101198905112127WETL
2021-03-26 23:57:22FORECAST2021182-10344.3528.3936.37234.081180598670.0040.4145.766.174TF12.3533.3589464.08296007398108.633087189840.73400290713122904112126WETL
2021-03-26 20:00:06FORECAST2021182-10346.1127.8136.96233.873067324030.00380.44385.76.1438TF14.1133.1189464.01220465465108.519957578370.79287701327053904112126WETL
2021-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2021182-10346.1329.2737.7234.180588011250.00450.46455.696.1545TF14.1335.1389464.11674391915108.687131996850.79349856027998904112126WETL
2021-03-26 12:00:06FORECAST2021182-10345.5629.2337.395234.61205438530.00160.49165.76.1916TF13.5633.5689464.26327996833108.921761889030.77535587492208904113129WETL
2021-03-26 08:00:06FORECAST2021182-10345.629.2337.415234.38696427240.00160.52165.666.1816TF13.626.689464.18685414982108.799347599330.7766577726983904113129WETL
2021-03-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021182-10344.9528.8736.91234.315189667560.00020.54025.636.1702TF12.9530.9589464.16247501879108.760318370590.754977482109904113129WETL
2021-03-26 00:00:07FORECAST2021182-10342.0526.7334.39228.581114062840.00350.63355.175.8035TF10.0524.0589462.2003941465105.650281014290.64608747317053903113127.5WETL
2021-03-25 20:01:25FORECAST2021182-10337.3127.0232.165230.218242318560.00380.62385.365.9838TF5.3126.3189462.76350299962106.536600269750.44401752035376902113126WETL
2021-03-25 16:00:06FORECAST2021182-10343.427.0235.21229.585220795140.00250.66255.175.8325TF11.427.489462.54604567396106.193736023970.69903374787664904113129WETL
2021-03-25 12:00:07FORECAST2021182-10340.6525.0432.845230.061414389860.00460.84465.125.9646TF8.6524.6589462.7096616073106.451639201230.58803760684094903113127.5WETL
2021-03-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021182-10340.2924.6732.48229.779166355470.00541.05544.835.8854TF8.2920.2989462.61270755129106.298762286580.572735434883219031141210WETL
2021-03-25 04:01:26FORECAST2021182-10340.2924.7232.505230.353470354010.00541.02544.986.0054TF8.2917.2989462.80991160621106.609869252720.572735434883219031141210WETL
2021-03-25 00:00:06FORECAST2021182-10343.7524.634.175236.062282053101.263.965.22TF11.7526.7589464.7546357578109.711039911740.712156528530869041141212WETL
2021-03-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021182-10343.7523.7733.76233.7284254314801.214.866.07TF11.7525.7589463.9630065261108.44134297380.712156528530869041141212WETL
2021-03-24 15:57:43FORECAST2021182-10341.6524.6733.16233.038854025220.00021.18024.795.9702TF9.6526.6589463.72820879349108.066690356410.62977979782359031141210WETL
2021-03-24 12:00:07FORECAST2021182-10329.1924.7726.98234.529332224210.00391.17394.555.7239TF-2.8117.1989464.23519803379108.876770989840.15287478589512901114126WETL
2021-03-24 08:00:00FORECAST2021182-10328.0324.7326.38235.189713578460.00251.17254.735.9025TF-3.9714.0389464.45921524861109.23602980320.12497285373805901114126WETL
2021-03-24 04:00:00FORECAST2021182-10326.323.2924.795237.8557692497401.135.136.26TT-5.713.389465.3597943695110.688511867660.090293652213677901114126WETL