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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 30, 2021

[ Monday, March 29, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 31, 2021 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.198
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 221 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 101.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-31 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021181-10429.8900414.8499622.37221.3889929166700.534.985.51TF-2.1099618.8900488459.17248991588 101.655735117510.1983359329878191 1113124.5WETL
2021-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2021181-10335.3927.2531.32223.962905316440.00670.53674.985.5167TF3.3913.3989460.59923115417103.15714199580.38817553856257912113126WETL
2021-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2021181-10331.3117.7724.54224.044004548090.0110.5414.985.521TF-0.699.3189460.62751110797103.200832193650.24131716089243911113124.5WETL
2021-03-30 04:00:08FORECAST2021181-10335.2216.0925.655223.771643059920.01290.54294.985.5229TF3.2213.2289460.53251339416103.054117204730.38151940692584912113126WETL
2021-03-30 00:00:03FORECAST2021181-10435.7518.1626.955220.023578744940.01580.38584.985.3658TF3.7515.7588458.69052654683100.922731187230.40237750766678912112124WETL
2021-03-29 20:01:28FORECAST2021181-10435.8917.9926.94220.000897904830.01380.44384.985.4238TF3.8922.8988458.68250655079100.910563294410.40793661319295912112124WETL
2021-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2021181-10435.741927.37219.995562253390.01190.44194.985.4219TF3.7422.7488458.68061978531100.90770084440.40198116865797912112124WETL
2021-03-29 12:00:06FORECAST2021181-10435.7920.0727.93220.282578673970.01180.44184.985.4218TF3.7922.7988458.78207674904101.061698915680.40396386336563912112124WETL
2021-03-29 07:57:31FORECAST2021181-10435.8820.7628.32220.501193991680.01180.48184.985.4618TF3.8817.8888458.8593051101101.179024650970.40753890483018912112124WETL
2021-03-29 04:00:08FORECAST2021181-10435.8519.1727.51221.003373246990.01150.55154.985.5315TF3.8521.8588459.03654336489101.448624527280.40634635286071912113126WETL
2021-03-29 00:00:07FORECAST2021181-10434.9819.9127.445230.807921568920.01170.30174.985.2817TF2.986.9888462.45203136946106.737592185710.372182259764912112124WETL
2021-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2021181-10435.6619.6727.665226.011891097170.01291.29294.986.2729TT3.6621.6688460.79192429104.144454211090.39881411619062912114128WETL
2021-03-28 16:00:07FORECAST2021181-10435.6419.4227.53226.238484669070.01291.33294.986.3129TT3.6421.6488460.87081381936104.266714546690.39802338388077912114128WETL
2021-03-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021181-10435.2720.7728.02231.698917828870.01211.40214.986.3821TT3.2721.2788462.75822119402107.220579067070.38347355762419912114128WETL
2021-03-28 08:00:06FORECAST2021181-10435.4520.6428.045232.235106826960.01231.50234.986.4823TT3.4520.4588462.94214821748107.511419245990.390532736378629121151210WETL
2021-03-28 00:00:06FORECAST2021181-10435.2821.4528.365232.461160318160.01581.42584.986.4058TT3.2824.2888463.01961551707107.634077073170.38386474539418912114128WETL
2021-03-27 20:00:06FORECAST2021181-10436.5721.4629.015232.705645225350.01511.43514.986.4151TT4.5735.5788463.10334910988107.766763660640.43518240924748912114128WETL
2021-03-27 16:00:04FORECAST2021181-10435.5320.828.165233.217960483630.01681.47684.986.4568TT3.5337.5388463.27864331944108.044900330580.39368192008245912114128WETL
2021-03-27 12:00:07FORECAST2021181-10433.8220.7927.305233.363204603550.01961.51964.986.4996TT1.8232.8288463.32829867905108.123776563250.328190685663349121151210WETL
2021-03-27 08:00:06FORECAST2021181-10432.9320.5926.76233.53563500670.02271.55274.996.5427TT0.9328.9388463.38722457601108.217429745350.295947040831779121151210WETL
2021-03-27 04:00:08FORECAST2021181-10435.3220.7628.04233.698047151150.01881.51884.996.5088TT3.3231.3288463.44270326311108.305654719040.385430676103619121151210WETL
2021-03-26 23:57:22FORECAST2021181-10433.721.5727.635234.6116659320.02121.49124.686.1712TT1.731.788463.75436199418108.802183450690.32376067207284912114128WETL
2021-03-26 20:00:06FORECAST2021181-10434.0217.7425.88234.458656657370.02041.47044.676.1404TT2.0230.0288463.70221702395108.718998892480.3356277276218912114128WETL
2021-03-26 16:00:04FORECAST2021181-10434.1522.2328.19234.769676011250.02561.47564.676.1456TT2.1532.1588463.8081899534108.888098486730.34049677446969912114128WETL
2021-03-26 12:00:06FORECAST2021181-10434.3722.2228.295235.13341038530.02891.51894.676.1889TT2.3731.3788463.93201819655109.085917625490.348797178173659121151210WETL
2021-03-26 08:00:06FORECAST2021181-10430.323.6626.98234.90963227240.0431.5034.686.183TT-1.724.388463.85584963215108.964207064490.21024632041395911115127.5WETL
2021-03-26 04:00:08FORECAST2021181-10430.323.6626.98234.775756334230.0431.4934.686.173TT-1.729.388463.81026085405108.891404787580.21024632041395911114126WETL
2021-03-26 00:00:06FORECAST2021181-10434.4422.1628.3228.915061368010.04171.62174.185.8017TF2.4425.4488461.79924784386105.712803159880.351453689072999121151210WETL
2021-03-25 20:01:25FORECAST2021181-10434.1119.3826.745230.419930396660.03951.77954.25.9795TT2.1132.1188462.31848192898106.527392427160.338995727554889121151210WETL
2021-03-25 16:00:06FORECAST2021181-10434.1519.3826.765229.947257464060.03881.62884.25.8288TF2.1527.1588462.15560646234106.271414227660.340496774469699121151210WETL
2021-03-25 12:00:07FORECAST2021181-10431.0519.4225.235230.272140965510.07581.74584.215.9558TT-0.9527.0588462.26757708592106.447344674510.23308866754983911115127.5WETL
2021-03-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021181-10429.4718.7124.09229.945624069740.13271.63274.255.8827TF-2.5323.4788462.1550432819106.270529844430.18656395446798911115127.5WETL
2021-03-25 04:01:26FORECAST2021181-10429.5118.7224.115230.519584693460.13271.66274.346.0027TT-2.4919.5188462.35279623928106.581374570940.18766602693141911115127.5WETL
2021-03-25 00:00:06FORECAST2021181-10432.4823.0927.785236.400668719760.14261.67263.555.2226TF0.4826.4888464.36254591113109.77561638180.280217210025739121151210WETL
2021-03-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021181-10432.4823.1427.81234.053090764810.14261.79264.286.0726TT0.4825.4888463.56390364447108.498564414990.280217210025739121151210WETL
2021-03-24 15:57:43FORECAST2021181-10431.7723.0627.415233.168530825050.13831.75834.215.9683TT-0.2327.7788463.26174036761108.018059388970.256253250347419121151210WETL
2021-03-24 12:00:07FORECAST2021181-10431.4422.2326.835234.493980419990.11491.50494.225.7249TF-0.5631.4488463.71425702521108.738201907340.24548975596178911115127.5WETL
2021-03-24 08:00:00FORECAST2021181-10431.4422.2326.835235.16642876930.11491.50494.45.9049TF-0.5629.4488463.94325317734109.103878001330.24548975596178911115127.5WETL
2021-03-24 04:00:00FORECAST2021181-10429.7122.5326.12237.855769249740.11411.71414.556.2641TT-2.2929.7188464.85518343454110.568487245550.19323636231119911115127.5WETL
2021-03-23 23:59:59FORECAST2021181-10430.8421.4626.15234.245530500740.21811.39814.435.8281TF-1.1637.8488463.62955067051108.603150052630.22655774975765911114126WETL
2021-03-23 20:00:07FORECAST2021181-10430.8521.8226.335234.193625667380.20911.35914.445.7991TF-1.1533.8588463.61184751891108.574939472810.22686638880891911114126WETL
2021-03-23 15:57:41FORECAST2021181-10432.3422.6127.475230.357526695180.17781.08784.395.4778TF0.3447.3488462.29698982272106.493591174190.27540732843368912114128WETL
2021-03-23 12:00:06FORECAST2021181-10437.1127.9232.515223.90057347930.0030.4734.374.843TF5.1160.1188460.05467332445103.006505189180.45704693646584912112124WETL
2021-03-23 08:01:21FORECAST2021181-10430.127.8128.955224.14862754240.00270.47274.334.8027TF-1.950.188460.14149642695103.140084899410.20438424904554911112123WETL
2021-03-23 04:00:08FORECAST2021181-10430.428.9929.695224.523325359240.00150.47154.344.8115TF-1.657.488460.27254329505103.341921992160.21321393367587911112123WETL