MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 18, 2021

[ Wednesday, March 17, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, March 19, 2021 ]

DAY 169 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/19/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.685
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 67

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 197 in
SWE DAY: 76
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 87.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-19 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021169-11641.3625.8400433.60002197.458594583330.299999999999950.299999999999951.531.83FF9.3667.3676443.60060139814 87.5927513083990.6850208139882291 3112125DRYL
2021-03-19 00:00:01FORECAST2021169-11525.3825.3825.38199.023470913970.00520.00521.11.1052FF-6.6251.3877444.7955947554188.5247631154660.10102383555232911111121.5DRYL
2021-03-18 12:01:10FORECAST2021169-11537.2126.1231.665198.679350711750.34720.34721.11.4472FF5.2163.2177444.6617130032588.3451004258620.51016401436433913112125DRYL
2021-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2021169-11536.7526.9931.87198.48425233070.32690.32691.11.4269FF4.7562.7577444.5857569688688.2432715688440.4899885089257912112124DRYL
2021-03-18 04:00:08FORECAST2021169-11537.6526.832.225198.419097122260.32740.32741.11.4274FF5.6563.6577444.5603822467288.2092696617190.52943871337732913112125DRYL
2021-03-18 00:00:06FORECAST2021169-11637.0227.1732.095201.568410952040.39370.39371.531.9237FF5.0248.0276445.2029446429389.7388501028440.50183085841742913112125DRYL
2021-03-17 19:59:59FORECAST2021169-11637.727.3232.51201.256517355140.3580.3681.531.898FF5.757.776445.0819286202989.5756388918310.53162550790993913112125DRYL
2021-03-17 16:00:01FORECAST2021169-11637.1226.2131.665201.610705294250.30630.31631.531.8463FF5.1257.1276445.2193476444989.760986689250.50621706020318913112125DRYL
2021-03-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021169-11637.0426.0931.565201.266744271960.27390.28391.531.8139FF5.0457.0476445.085898227389.5809896575710.50270813344962913112125DRYL
2021-03-17 08:00:06FORECAST2021169-11636.9726.8231.895201.18995833110.30220.31221.531.8422FF4.9756.9776445.0560910252289.5408164083660.49963764138275913112125DRYL
2021-03-17 04:00:09FORECAST2021169-11636.9227.232.06201.236207711240.29150.30151.531.8315FF4.9255.9276445.074045068289.5650129802280.49744443529973912112124DRYL
2021-03-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021169-11637.3527.5132.43203.142787147290.40790.41791.531.9479FF5.3545.3576445.8123479815590.5635629136490.5163016008907913112125DRYL
2021-03-16 19:58:07FORECAST2021169-11640.5427.8434.19202.968745148190.48740.49741.532.0274FF8.5464.5476445.745100235690.4723236507730.65233115725743913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-16 16:01:09FORECAST2021169-11640.427.6834.04203.0203644890.53520.54521.532.0752FF8.465.476445.7650484323490.4993826091920.64662637737315913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021169-11639.9428.0533.995202.512951712920.51480.52481.532.0548FF7.9465.9476445.5688461699690.23346222920.62765526008321913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-16 08:00:04FORECAST2021169-11639.3428.1833.76203.039745646260.37160.38161.531.9116FF7.3459.3476445.772537568690.5095426440180.6024439102572913112125DRYL
2021-03-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021169-11639.9828.2234.1203.304707272960.37830.38831.531.9183FF7.9859.9876445.8748852919890.6484630346520.62931804954449913112125DRYL
2021-03-16 00:00:06FORECAST2021169-11640.3628.3534.355201.563971252880.27910.28911.471.7591FF8.3657.3676445.2012226935989.7365264527570.64499030663012913112125DRYL
2021-03-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021169-11641.0529.2435.145201.536606026260.26870.27871.51.7787FF9.0567.0576445.1906085876389.7222042895150.67281473822534913112125DRYL
2021-03-15 15:58:00FORECAST2021169-11640.4227.9534.185201.603165406790.27360.27361.51.7736FF8.4267.4276445.2164235813589.7570402850910.64744340059445913112125DRYL
2021-03-15 12:00:05FORECAST2021169-11640.3527.0833.715202.253528864930.38460.38461.51.8846FF8.3567.3576445.4684369103790.0975633630660.6445808696916913112125DRYL
2021-03-15 08:00:06FORECAST2021169-11641.8928.1335.01202.019024456640.37960.37961.511.8896FF9.8968.8976445.3776153458189.9747513669860.70542340437377914112126DRYL
2021-03-15 04:00:08FORECAST2021169-11640.8328.1334.48201.763780084540.39960.39961.521.9196FF8.8367.8376445.2786998648389.8411136758590.6640379105684913112125DRYL
2021-03-15 00:00:06FORECAST2021169-11641.4529.5435.495202.318869693970.40550.40551.531.9355FF9.4569.4576445.493733223190.1317885614420.68852778335235913112125DRYL
2021-03-14 20:00:06FORECAST2021169-11641.4130.0935.75201.23689110570.40850.40851.792.1985FF9.4183.4176445.0743103466189.5653705251650.68697121462726913112125DRYL
2021-03-14 16:00:05FORECAST2021169-11641.4630.1635.81201.138642653990.40850.40851.82.2085FF9.4684.4676445.0361677735889.513970717910.68891640147194913112125DRYL
2021-03-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021169-11642.4631.9637.21201.406126918730.58230.58231.792.3723FF10.4685.4676445.1399897219689.6539212665440.72665987964611914113129DRYL
2021-03-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021169-11636.5432.134.32201.149836842460.70140.70141.792.4914FF4.5475.5476445.0405141256289.5198268046550.48078335639538912113126DRYL
2021-03-14 04:00:08FORECAST2021169-11642.2429.8536.045201.464696691240.71960.71961.792.5096FF10.2485.2476445.1627137140189.6845710966420.71855361327488914113129DRYL
2021-03-13 23:00:06FORECAST2021169-11640.3230.5335.425204.20400987280.51760.52761.82.3276FF8.3281.3276446.2217490985391.1202704583760.64335155948547913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-13 19:00:07FORECAST2021169-11640.4330.2435.335205.744068807240.59580.60581.82.4058FF8.4387.4376446.8139174876491.929313383610.64785165768574913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-13 15:00:05FORECAST2021169-11640.4930.2835.385205.892537651590.59580.60581.842.4458FF8.4989.4976446.8708829490392.0073800929820.65029761041057913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-13 10:58:18FORECAST2021169-11641.5130.6636.085204.604212680190.2090.2291.792.019FF9.5183.5176446.3758539973291.3303801665710.69085632994946913112125DRYL
2021-03-13 07:00:08FORECAST2021169-11641.5630.736.13204.595953675520.2090.2291.822.049FF9.5684.5676446.3726753098791.3260431997170.69279095592612913112125DRYL
2021-03-13 02:58:10FORECAST2021169-11641.1430.6435.89204.165285640890.1970.2171.771.987FF9.1481.1476446.2068293604391.0999447712860.67637826131568913112125DRYL
2021-03-12 23:00:06FORECAST2021169-11636.3629.0832.72206.725186822690.23040.25041.822.0704FF4.3687.3676447.189961259792.4454282866430.47290118722562912112124DRYL
2021-03-12 19:00:06FORECAST2021169-11636.4229.1832.8206.316946850770.23040.30041.72.0004FF4.4289.4276447.0336045188192.2306084240150.47552755121097912112124DRYL
2021-03-12 15:00:06FORECAST2021169-11637.0927.5332.31206.246299477660.24520.26521.762.0252FF5.0991.0976447.0065299707992.1934426488240.50490125445723913112125DRYL
2021-03-12 11:01:03FORECAST2021169-11633.5726.8630.215210.695207616440.90851.01851.832.8485FF1.5785.5776448.702062392694.5393741937340.35392460667094912114128DRYL
2021-03-12 07:00:08FORECAST2021169-11634.0327.1130.57210.991128485890.90851.01851.792.8085FF2.0368.0376448.8141632475294.6958067840430.37290556570768912114128DRYL
2021-03-12 03:00:08FORECAST2021169-11634.7727.9531.36212.070183506990.99491.11491.772.8849FF2.7774.7776449.2222182182395.2666382529550.40407912719554912114128DRYL
2021-03-11 23:00:06FORECAST2021169-11639.4628.2233.84210.449952867970.52230.562322.5623FF7.4696.4676448.6090910207394.4097620614570.60752429974569913113127.5DRYL
2021-03-11 19:00:06FORECAST2021169-11639.2830.3134.795210.059915504680.33850.44852.132.5785FF7.2893.2876448.4611159912394.2037041322530.59989712686934913112125DRYL
2021-03-11 15:00:06FORECAST2021169-11639.3432.4735.905209.137583348690.17180.28182.152.4318FF7.3491.3476448.1106115723293.7167703771390.6024439102572913112125DRYL
2021-03-11 11:00:06FORECAST2021169-11638.7233.9536.335209.1654394050.0660.3262.072.396FF6.7292.7276448.1212094531693.731469681970.57593604175958913112125DRYL
2021-03-11 07:00:08FORECAST2021169-11633.2832.6232.95208.879466387740.01780.27781.942.2178FF1.2888.2876448.0123748914493.580585802430.34213878884851912112124DRYL
2021-03-11 03:00:08FORECAST2021169-11632.9932.8732.93208.410612326260.06820.14821.942.0882FF0.9990.9976447.8337689912593.3333100158420.33050469897946912112124DRYL