Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 10, 2021

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DAY 161 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.85°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.57°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.382 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -6 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.27 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 208 in SWE DAY: 69 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.50 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 92.10 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-11 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	161	-123	32.28008	22.85006	27.56507	207.67675	0.059999999999945	0.079999999999945	9.19	9.2699999999999	T	T	0.28008	-5.71992	69	443.50090950249	92.104827507521	0.38232441145195	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-03-11 03:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	161	-123	32.28008	22.85006	27.56507	207.67675	0.059999999999945	0.079999999999945	9.19	9.2699999999999	T	T	0.28008	-5.71992	69	443.50090950249	92.104827507521	0.38232441145195	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-03-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	36.48	22.74	29.61	210.22678298534	0.0732	0.0932	9.19	9.2832	T	T	4.48	-1.52	69	444.49773360606	93.44532858028	0.57876476356477	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-10 06:58:28	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.92	22.96	28.44	210.71644068642	0.0705	0.0905	9.19	9.2805	T	T	1.92	-4.08	69	444.68840609568	93.703158147001	0.45823363644387	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-10 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	29.37	23.07	26.22	210.76546929536	0.0715	0.0915	9.19	9.2815	T	T	-2.63	-8.63	69	444.70748475606	93.728981723772	0.25961259048238	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-09 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	35.1	19.83	27.465	214.27561803765	0.077	0.117	9.19	9.307	T	T	3.1	0.1	69	446.06724451809	95.581334505464	0.51398592872051	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-09 18:59:42	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.7	20.69	27.195	214.33960388026	0.0819	0.1219	9.19	9.3119	T	T	1.7	-1.3	69	446.0919189858	95.615165209603	0.44789674818018	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-09 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.45	21.47	27.46	214.38395320868	0.0917	0.1317	9.19	9.3217	T	T	1.45	-1.55	69	446.10901879222	95.638615010721	0.43619346594601	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-09 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.68	21.55	27.115	214.51459630324	0.0862	0.1262	9.19	9.3162	T	T	0.68	-2.32	69	446.15937976255	95.707699236668	0.40053968649085	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-09 06:58:23	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.57	21.97	27.27	214.6272925205	0.121	0.191	9.19	9.381	T	T	0.57	-8.43	69	446.20280905499	95.767300822512	0.39550602995611	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-09 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.61	21.41	27.01	214.64521664648	0.1111	0.1911	9.19	9.3811	T	T	0.61	-3.39	69	446.20971525826	95.776781001376	0.39733448288535	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.24	21.07	26.655	213.77503450737	0.0725	0.2325	9.19	9.4225	T	T	0.24	0.24	69	445.87406909361	95.316744506426	0.38051241673952	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.03	20.93	26.48	213.92433125151	0.0826	0.2726	9.19	9.4626	T	T	0.030000000000001	0.030000000000001	69	445.93170848443	95.395642521374	0.37106205925924	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.04	20.99	26.515	213.75336807084	0.0506	0.2306	9.19	9.4206	T	T	0.039999999999999	0.039999999999999	69	445.86570245853	95.305295607779	0.37151036924135	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	31.84	22.15	26.995	214.75645041318	0.205	0.365	9.19	9.555	T	T	-0.16	-0.16	69	446.2525668321	95.835617240632	0.36257802728294	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	31.07	22.42	26.745	215.35201842665	0.2618	0.4718	9.19	9.6618	T	T	-0.93	-1.93	69	446.48179696099	96.150756166306	0.3289185330989	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-08 02:58:27	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	30.92	22.41	26.665	215.55543445262	0.2598	0.5098	9.19	9.6998	T	T	-1.08	-2.08	69	446.56001101193	96.258437182845	0.32250970894352	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-03-07 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	32.6	20.79	26.695	213.25581211415	0.169	0.469	8.95	9.419	T	T	0.6	3.6	69	445.67344124629	95.042451650687	0.39687715643706	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-07 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.76	22.06	27.91	212.55520794593	0.1004	0.3404	8.95	9.2904	T	T	1.76	6.76	69	445.40230764563	94.672580121215	0.45071269317718	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-07 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.17	22.57	28.37	212.31043981812	0.092	0.272	8.95	9.222	T	T	2.17	7.17	69	445.30746866785	94.543424527164	0.47001409671912	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-07 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.52	22.27	28.395	213.19558897324	0.0934	0.2734	8.95	9.2234	T	T	2.52	7.52	69	445.65015385903	95.01064702799	0.48654862065199	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-07 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.6	22.3	28.45	213.77210266644	0.0835	0.2935	9.01	9.3035	T	T	2.6	8.6	69	445.87293697114	95.315195258382	0.49033222062997	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-07 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	35.32	21.92	28.62	214.49840291741	0.0382	0.2682	9.19	9.4582	T	T	3.32	9.32	69	446.15313836039	95.699135634896	0.52438290360622	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-06 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.78	22.2	28.49	214.0562253074	0.0272	0.2072	9.25	9.4572	T	T	2.78	10.78	69	445.98261099192	95.46535426167	0.49884798320545	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-06 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.8	21.73	27.765	214.16969280339	0.044	0.244	9.26	9.504	T	T	1.8	12.8	69	446.02638840488	95.52533458688	0.45259137791601	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-06 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	33.29	22.39	27.84	214.21263486015	0.0245	0.1745	9.31	9.4845	T	T	1.29	10.29	69	446.04295278523	95.548036176924	0.42873191432371	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-06 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	35.37	22.22	28.795	214.97138337043	0.0233	0.2433	9.34	9.5833	T	T	3.37	10.37	69	446.33533307719	95.949323998708	0.52674379370719	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-06 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	30.34	21.83	26.085	214.41357010027	0.0239	0.1439	9.29	9.4339	T	T	-1.66	5.34	69	446.1204371284	95.654275619392	0.29823461376102	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-06 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	38.05	21.85	29.95	214.55156886076	0.0236	0.1736	9.32	9.4936	T	T	6.05	15.05	69	446.17362910003	95.727252107713	0.64985902683923	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-05 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	36.61	20.27	28.44	213.44083135378	0.0119	0.1219	9.35	9.4719	T	T	4.61	14.61	69	445.74496313823	95.140175503986	0.5847859853875	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-03-05 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.28	22.44	28.36	213.49169543961	0.0055	0.1555	9.31	9.4655	T	T	2.28	7.28	69	445.76461950466	95.167044385044	0.475206442971	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-05 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.27	22.56	28.415	213.69048392431	0.0055	0.1355	9.38	9.5155	T	T	2.27	13.27	69	445.84141672956	95.272068094438	0.47473422411996	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-05 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	26.76	20.84	23.8	216.55234268535	0.1222	0.2322	9.41	9.6422	T	T	-5.24	-9.24	69	446.94274132839	96.786497680874	0.16999135846057	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-05 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	26.77	20.84	23.805	216.51556374212	0.1222	0.2122	9.4	9.6122	T	T	-5.23	-13.23	69	446.92863846661	96.767006110096	0.17029183410333	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-05 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	27.26	20.92	24.09	216.7107210916	0.1292	0.2092	9.42	9.6292	T	T	-4.74	-11.74	69	447.00345637521	96.870441361512	0.18542963728292	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-04 22:58:43	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	30.14	19.79	24.965	217.29763886395	0.0327	0.0727	9.37	9.4427	T	T	-1.86	3.14	69	447.228240995	97.181640801491	0.29006090101981	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-03-04 18:59:49	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	30.06	19.79	24.925	217.92159557362	0.0327	0.0827	9.39	9.4727	T	T	-1.94	2.06	69	447.46684401373	97.512688613765	0.28682104540265	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-03-04 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	30.39	19.82	25.105	217.78780247444	0.0583	0.1083	9.41	9.5183	T	T	-1.61	5.39	69	447.41571295405	97.441684916795	0.30029429809678	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-04 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	29.44	19.91	24.675	217.93210386703	0.093	0.113	9.33	9.443	T	T	-2.56	0.44	69	447.47085918133	97.518265760574	0.26231100482635	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-04 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	28.72	19.9	24.31	217.88038154671	0.093	0.113	9.34	9.453	T	T	-3.28	5.72	69	447.45109530083	97.490815367641	0.2352562223574	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-04 02:58:45	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	28.94	20.39	24.665	217.60226650981	0.094	0.104	9.25	9.354	T	T	-3.06	7.94	69	447.34477881281	97.343237780999	0.24335608146282	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-03 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.33	19.95	27.14	220.58070648753	0.1281	0.1581	9.18	9.3381	T	T	2.33	1.33	69	448.47946731867	98.925917746303	0.47756804643592	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-03 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	34.26	19.14	26.7	220.61041334024	0.105	0.135	9.19	9.325	T	T	2.26	2.26	69	448.49074148026	98.94172785723	0.47426204076027	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-03 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	31.97	18.69	25.33	221.28993059803	0.0328	0.1328	9.26	9.3928	T	T	-0.030000000000001	-1.03	69	448.74839553509	99.303501303938	0.36837589082313	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-03-03 11:00:07	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	28.53	23.19	25.86	220.11835791382	0.0017	0.0917	9.12	9.2117	T	T	-3.47	-2.47	69	448.30388994263	98.679916100551	0.22838220664466	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-03 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	24.37	23.18	23.775	220.19175050911	0.0004	0.0904	9.19	9.2804	T	T	-7.63	-4.63	69	448.33177463023	98.718958264685	0.10786660611093	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-03-03 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	161	-123	25.95	25.82	25.885	220.79477669034	0.0106	0.1706	9.13	9.3006	T	T	-6.05	-5.05	69	448.56069090317	99.039857580029	0.14678105892727	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L