Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 6, 2021
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Sunday, February 7, 2021 ]
DAY 129
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/07/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.23°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.208
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -66
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.33 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 389.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.45 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-02-07 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 27.15998 | 21.30008 | 24.23003 | 137.25530291667 | 1.1799999999999 | 2.8699999999999 | 3.46 | 6.3299999999999 | T | T | -4.84002 | -65.84002 | 37 | 389.38494964203 | 53.445149214307 | 0.20774112142503 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-07 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 27.15998 | 21.30008 | 24.23003 | 137.25530291667 | 1.1799999999999 | 2.8699999999999 | 3.46 | 6.3299999999999 | T | T | -4.84002 | -65.84002 | 37 | 389.38494964203 | 53.445149214307 | 0.20774112142503 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 30.31 | 22.29 | 26.3 | 138.56038888241 | 0.6478 | 2.3378 | 3.46 | 5.7978 | T | T | -1.69 | -62.69 | 37 | 390.07501562123 | 54.048945857792 | 0.31862707202579 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 27.05 | 22.53 | 24.79 | 139.52478101488 | 0.8923 | 2.5823 | 3.46 | 6.0423 | T | T | -4.95 | -65.95 | 37 | 390.58347156219 | 54.496073337745 | 0.20433028917618 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-06 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 28.6 | 22.2 | 25.4 | 139.22038743608 | 0.8924 | 2.5824 | 3.46 | 6.0424 | T | T | -3.4 | -64.4 | 37 | 390.42312079892 | 54.35485814163 | 0.25540171811243 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 23:00:00 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 28.66 | 22.28 | 25.47 | 135.11912867971 | 0.8073 | 1.1973 | 3.46 | 4.6573 | T | F | -3.34 | -61.34 | 37 | 388.25049654497 | 52.460068802621 | 0.25750425322236 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 28.23 | 23.24 | 25.735 | 135.24745310287 | 0.8423 | 1.2323 | 3.46 | 4.6923 | T | F | -3.77 | -61.77 | 37 | 388.31881941471 | 52.519131317752 | 0.24263669401335 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 33.54 | 23.69 | 28.615 | 135.26073107166 | 0.8578 | 1.2478 | 3.46 | 4.7078 | T | F | 1.54 | -56.46 | 37 | 388.32588763895 | 52.525243456097 | 0.45218188343947 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.38 | 23.47 | 26.425 | 135.61085119731 | 0.8478 | 1.2378 | 3.46 | 4.6978 | T | F | -2.62 | -60.62 | 37 | 388.5121801222 | 52.686467446895 | 0.28341664034086 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.31 | 23.34 | 26.325 | 136.02702209056 | 0.8586 | 1.3986 | 3.46 | 4.8586 | T | F | -2.69 | -63.69 | 37 | 388.73340161258 | 52.878247008494 | 0.28084354596509 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-05 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.31 | 22.88 | 26.095 | 137.46128228177 | 0.8685 | 1.7285 | 3.46 | 5.1885 | T | F | -2.69 | -64.69 | 37 | 389.49401359521 | 53.540346549873 | 0.28084354596509 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 23:02:24 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.23 | 22.46 | 25.845 | 145.41312295254 | 0.9421 | 2.8121 | 3.46 | 6.2721 | T | T | -2.77 | -65.77 | 37 | 393.66110559296 | 57.243490749223 | 0.27791675136601 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.7 | 22.76 | 26.23 | 145.8969356648 | 0.9173 | 2.8473 | 3.46 | 6.3073 | T | T | -2.3 | -62.3 | 37 | 393.91193740833 | 57.470544589658 | 0.29532088444232 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 14:55:14 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 29.79 | 23.02 | 26.405 | 145.39710024456 | 0.8733 | 2.7833 | 3.46 | 6.2433 | T | T | -2.21 | -65.21 | 37 | 393.65279337501 | 57.235974659898 | 0.29870990129669 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 30.29 | 22.67 | 26.48 | 147.40456893134 | 0.7843 | 2.6043 | 3.46 | 6.0643 | T | T | -1.71 | -63.71 | 37 | 394.69159319354 | 58.179344155516 | 0.31785076024713 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 30.5 | 23.26 | 26.88 | 146.82650744147 | 0.7514 | 2.4514 | 3.46 | 5.9114 | T | T | -1.5 | -62.5 | 37 | 394.39300798025 | 57.907347921075 | 0.32604134182158 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-04 02:55:21 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 30.65 | 24.17 | 27.41 | 146.21865008126 | 0.7216 | 2.3316 | 3.46 | 5.7916 | T | T | -1.35 | -60.35 | 37 | 394.07855910853 | 57.621634938817 | 0.33194383919822 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 22:55:44 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 31.45 | 19.3 | 25.375 | 134.24607046098 | 1.0087 | 2.5787 | 3.1 | 5.6787 | T | T | -0.55 | -58.55 | 37 | 387.78506867277 | 52.058621652761 | 0.3641006000162 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 19:02:26 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.58 | 22.4 | 27.49 | 132.09265431877 | 0.8722 | 2.3422 | 3.1 | 5.4422 | T | F | 0.58 | -55.42 | 37 | 386.63265908425 | 51.071334184764 | 0.41115004274078 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 14:55:45 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.84 | 22.09 | 27.465 | 130.84976065191 | 0.629 | 1.979 | 3.1 | 5.079 | T | F | 0.84 | -55.16 | 37 | 385.96464478151 | 50.503381389762 | 0.42218666032171 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 31.75 | 25.24 | 28.495 | 129.72244977871 | 0.2815 | 1.5615 | 3.1 | 4.6615 | T | F | -0.25 | -56.25 | 37 | 385.3569258777 | 49.989444464049 | 0.37642545338877 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.56 | 25.9 | 29.23 | 129.42051182193 | 0.2296 | 1.3696 | 3.13 | 4.4996 | T | F | 0.56 | -58.44 | 37 | 385.19385930931 | 49.851986422476 | 0.41030385974368 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.76 | 25.31 | 29.035 | 129.47438420663 | 0.2342 | 1.3042 | 3.21 | 4.5142 | T | F | 0.76 | -59.24 | 37 | 385.22296314512 | 49.876505935466 | 0.41878383984034 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 23:02:25 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 34.36 | 27.18 | 30.77 | 126.04849744658 | 0.0303 | 0.9603 | 3.07 | 4.0303 | T | F | 2.36 | -57.64 | 37 | 383.36422482392 | 48.322484513829 | 0.48765700235755 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 34.12 | 26.63 | 30.375 | 126.5992854561 | 0.021 | 1.121 | 3.06 | 4.181 | T | F | 2.12 | -56.88 | 37 | 383.66415085726 | 48.571607353649 | 0.47725130831816 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 34.7 | 26.72 | 30.71 | 126.27848135891 | 0.0029 | 0.9229 | 3.06 | 3.9829 | T | F | 2.7 | -56.3 | 37 | 383.4895112601 | 48.426473098994 | 0.5024111117869 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-02-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 35.77 | 28.1 | 31.935 | 131.05988743692 | 0.056 | 0.976 | 3.08 | 4.056 | T | F | 3.77 | -55.23 | 37 | 386.07772916985 | 50.599303726903 | 0.54872762890308 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.39 | 28.48 | 30.435 | 131.96534873885 | 0.0552 | 1.0452 | 3.21 | 4.2552 | T | F | 0.39 | -56.61 | 37 | 386.56433343925 | 51.013097072313 | 0.40312853512134 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-02 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.39 | 28.7 | 30.545 | 133.01011723834 | 0.0552 | 0.8852 | 3.52 | 4.4052 | T | F | 0.39 | -57.61 | 37 | 387.12441395636 | 51.49146368616 | 0.40312853512134 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 38.98 | 29.62 | 34.3 | 133.42315565683 | 0.0106 | 0.8106 | 3.89 | 4.7006 | T | F | 6.98 | -51.02 | 37 | 387.34542637547 | 51.680849116257 | 0.68141607732283 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 38.97 | 27.55 | 33.26 | 133.39328111059 | 0.0106 | 0.6906 | 4.05 | 4.7406 | T | F | 6.97 | -52.03 | 37 | 387.32944860451 | 51.667146020111 | 0.68102764475036 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 41.1 | 32.22 | 36.66 | 131.1729703247 | 0.0119 | 0.5919 | 3.72 | 4.3119 | T | F | 9.1 | -45.9 | 37 | 386.13856225704 | 50.650942168164 | 0.75876003871072 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 38.14 | 30.43 | 34.285 | 133.88939459153 | 0.0105 | 0.6605 | 3.72 | 4.3805 | T | F | 6.14 | -52.86 | 37 | 387.59462738844 | 51.894810007968 | 0.64813018974326 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 38.15 | 30.43 | 34.29 | 136.11157713342 | 0.0105 | 0.6605 | 4.02 | 4.6805 | T | F | 6.15 | -51.85 | 37 | 388.77831945927 | 52.917230216883 | 0.64853384372693 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-02-01 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 36.88 | 30.08 | 33.48 | 137.15767478718 | 0.014 | 0.694 | 4.1 | 4.794 | T | F | 4.88 | -57.12 | 37 | 389.3332366173 | 53.400041451795 | 0.59607576766462 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 37.48 | 25.44 | 31.46 | 138.60179165593 | 0.0082 | 0.6182 | 4.82 | 5.4382 | T | F | 5.48 | -50.52 | 37 | 390.09686998021 | 54.068125098626 | 0.62113990798704 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 37.49 | 25.44 | 31.465 | 140.14861586201 | 0.0082 | 0.6482 | 5.02 | 5.6682 | T | F | 5.49 | -51.51 | 37 | 390.91171287574 | 54.785735483783 | 0.62155367903312 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 37.53 | 25.03 | 31.28 | 139.88909248573 | 0.004 | 0.654 | 4.89 | 5.544 | T | F | 5.53 | -56.47 | 37 | 390.77522341471 | 54.665191369392 | 0.62320736606508 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.38 | 23.04 | 27.71 | 145.58427462846 | 0.0028 | 1.0828 | 5 | 6.0828 | T | F | 0.38 | -63.62 | 37 | 393.74987410244 | 57.323789806252 | 0.40270744572556 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.47 | 23.12 | 27.795 | 149.87218019973 | 0.0028 | 1.4728 | 5.19 | 6.6628 | T | T | 0.47 | -56.53 | 37 | 395.96126601248 | 59.343578211936 | 0.40650125518932 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-31 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 32.03 | 22.41 | 27.22 | 152.0085704072 | 0.002 | 1.472 | 5.7 | 7.172 | T | T | 0.030000000000001 | -58.97 | 37 | 397.05410485532 | 60.355626853368 | 0.38804370104699 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 36.3 | 29.66 | 32.98 | 152.73300743988 | 0.3187 | 1.4787 | 6.28 | 7.7587 | T | T | 4.3 | -52.7 | 37 | 397.42333556489 | 60.699661267616 | 0.57146501372124 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 36.56 | 30.37 | 33.465 | 151.2486646795 | 0.153 | 1.373 | 6.03 | 7.403 | T | T | 4.56 | -57.44 | 37 | 396.66606566371 | 59.995212755307 | 0.58253785491438 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 35.57 | 28.55 | 32.06 | 147.41187669483 | 0.1094 | 1.3494 | 5.63 | 6.9794 | T | T | 3.57 | -52.43 | 37 | 394.69536505594 | 58.182784485647 | 0.54010159521988 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 24.91 | 20.88 | 22.895 | 147.19332332488 | 0.0014 | 1.8214 | 4.67 | 6.4914 | T | T | -7.09 | -68.09 | 37 | 394.58252965323 | 58.079913865598 | 0.14475318069937 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 07:02:21 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 22.52 | 21.6 | 22.06 | 150.94428829016 | 0.0009 | 1.8209 | 5.18 | 7.0009 | T | T | -9.48 | -69.48 | 37 | 396.51042832841 | 59.850984403656 | 0.093490171860342 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-01-30 02:55:50 | FORECAST | 2021 | 129 | -155 | 21.32 | 21.08 | 21.2 | 154.13163805038 | 0.0009 | 2.0209 | 5.27 | 7.2909 | T | T | -10.68 | -73.68 | 37 | 398.13426972357 | 61.365087156486 | 0.073474096127144 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |