MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 22, 2021

[ Sunday, February 21, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 23, 2021 ]

DAY 145 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/23/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.370
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -116

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 200 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 86.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-23 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021145-13931.120.5725.835200.431029583332.33.8710.0613.93TT-0.9-115.953430.7745251221 86.3405815884940.3700918066775390 21151210WETL
2021-02-23 03:00:07OBSERVATION2021145-13931.120.5725.835200.431029583332.33.8710.0613.93TT-0.9-115.953430.7745251221 86.3405815884940.3700918066775390 21151210WETL
2021-02-22 11:00:03FORECAST2021145-13930.5118.2824.395198.777490299561.2912.86110.0612.921TT-1.49-116.4953430.0711237301785.4884586253930.340225966525629021151210WETL
2021-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2021145-13929.3918.6224.005200.86217106171.74173.311710.0613.3717TT-2.61-117.6153430.9574439464386.563047826280.286320951220779021151210WETL
2021-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2021145-13929.9819.2224.6203.647910155122.55824.128210.0614.1882TT-2.02-117.0253432.1345230088288.0032925166270.314219703436069021151210WETL
2021-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2021145-13932.2519.225.725207.936415219633.06184.201810.0614.2618TT0.25-111.7553433.9303749836390.2299266290040.430453568017239021151210WETL
2021-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2021145-13932.0419.4225.73207.592685408013.01214.152110.0614.2121TT0.039999999999999-111.9653433.7871549011590.051040381430.419263597115339021151210WETL
2021-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2021145-13931.3919.425.395207.064499244252.7343.87410.0613.934TT-0.61-112.6153433.5668345235289.776299479530.385077411800039021151210WETL
2021-02-21 11:00:06FORECAST2021145-13934.4219.226.81208.249376402942.91354.053510.0614.1135TT2.42-109.5853434.0606661559490.392863048020.547711500797629031151212.5WETL
2021-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.5618.3524.955209.843113646762.64734.077310.0614.1373TT-0.44-115.4453434.7225623383591.2235360535760.393944165400039021151210WETL
2021-02-21 03:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.518.4724.985212.894187311972.91384.653810.0614.7138TT-0.5-115.553435.9822555069692.8180879685950.390808181134719021151210WETL
2021-02-20 23:00:04FORECAST2021145-13931.618.0424.82207.661523004392.86864.568610.0614.6286TT-0.4-112.453433.8158471125390.0868595148280.39603866145259021151210WETL
2021-02-20 19:00:06FORECAST2021145-13931.619.1825.39206.309946569972.69264.412610.0614.4726TT-0.4-112.453433.2515775200689.384109809520.39603866145259021151210WETL
2021-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2021145-13931.619.0525.325205.842382598822.64854.258510.0614.3185TT-0.4-112.453433.0559228396389.141262955840.39603866145259021151210WETL
2021-02-20 11:00:04FORECAST2021145-13931.6919.0825.385207.159516397532.644.210.0614.26TT-0.31-112.3153433.6064904906989.8257108768810.400762175854619021151210WETL
2021-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.5218.7925.155208.429853443652.70684.286810.0614.3468TT-0.48-113.4853434.135754808790.4868517494280.391852731697819021151210WETL
2021-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.9518.525.225208.523128247272.75634.426310.0614.4863TT-0.050000000000001-112.0553434.1745489106590.5354351441950.414487260369199021151210WETL
2021-02-19 23:00:05FORECAST2021145-1393219.8225.91205.601860890772.60794.287910.0314.3179TT0-10953432.9551846803689.016391652590.417139267749719021151210WETL
2021-02-19 18:59:22FORECAST2021145-13931.9820.6626.32205.806518034842.38974.209710.0314.2397TT-0.02-110.0253433.0409055208189.1226409318910.416078005261989021151210WETL
2021-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2021145-13931.8920.3926.14204.876180888192.21953.959510.0313.9895TT-0.11-110.1153432.6508735380588.6398586284140.411309998907489021151210WETL
2021-02-19 11:00:05FORECAST2021145-13931.8221.4626.64208.619447221762.56484.214810.0314.2448TT-0.18-111.1853434.2145994748390.5856097180580.407610545175429021151210WETL
2021-02-19 07:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.6220.9826.3210.44881858942.82034.500310.1414.6403TT-0.38-116.3853434.9734162671991.5396415712280.397087039890879021151210WETL
2021-02-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021145-13931.4820.9826.23210.170471226922.71244.422410.3214.7424TT-0.52-111.5253434.8581860684491.394349882890.389764417613399021151210WETL
2021-02-18 23:00:06FORECAST2021145-13931.5718.4925.03200.379825631852.85584.695810.6115.3058TT-0.43-112.4353430.7527876974186.314168489240.394467504560739021151210WETL
2021-02-18 19:00:06FORECAST2021145-13932.5219.1925.855199.828813918782.68164.511610.6215.1316TT0.52-111.4853430.5186897350786.0300391396280.444921894740899021151210WETL
2021-02-18 15:00:06FORECAST2021145-13932.5119.1825.845200.971349880532.52334.463310.6415.1033TT0.51-111.4953431.0037330691686.6194020384550.44438459740569021151210WETL
2021-02-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021145-13931.9124.0427.975207.572468000733.43325.183210.6815.8632TT-0.09-111.0953433.7787271267490.0405209559140.412368450940119021151210WETL
2021-02-18 07:00:08FORECAST2021145-13932.7725.0228.895208.785091646433.77185.551810.7216.2718TT0.77-109.2353434.2834534670690.6719106326470.458384676541159021151210WETL
2021-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021145-13933.2526.1629.705210.191566113413.76765.727610.8516.5776TT1.25-107.7553434.8669217797491.4053593398020.484354206653189021151210WETL
2021-02-17 23:00:06FORECAST2021145-13934.423.4728.935202.508463095272.59274.682710.2414.9227TT2.4-111.653431.6540703793987.413602381350.546634042062439031151212.5WETL
2021-02-17 19:00:06FORECAST2021145-13932.4623.5528.005202.683435167922.81644.906410.2715.1764TT0.46-106.5453431.727938486687.5041016304280.441699662840489021151210WETL
2021-02-17 15:00:06FORECAST2021145-13932.4722.9827.725203.473877630922.93434.864310.2115.0743TT0.47-113.5353432.0612314066787.9131741283040.442236439562789021151210WETL
2021-02-17 11:00:06FORECAST2021145-13936.2628.2232.24198.152343844531.13632.626310.3412.9663TT4.26-105.7453429.8044212688185.1667534691550.644348519525769031151212.5WETL
2021-02-17 06:59:32FORECAST2021145-13933.8728.1631.015199.297150961481.13632.606310.6213.2263TT1.87-110.1353430.292501320685.7560695932810.517980751936199031151212.5WETL
2021-02-17 03:00:07FORECAST2021145-13932.9327.1230.025198.846178999720.97632.386310.7413.1263TT0.93-104.0753430.1004021622985.5238215562150.467026972758599021151210WETL
2021-02-16 23:00:07FORECAST2021145-13934.5724.9529.76192.527554791241.96493.44499.9513.3949TT2.57-102.4353427.385608149282.2835060899320.555780704340419031151212.5WETL
2021-02-16 19:00:07FORECAST2021145-13934.5724.9529.76194.203470156831.96493.584910.0613.6449TT2.57-100.4353428.1099153618983.1404311718260.555780704340419031151212.5WETL
2021-02-16 15:00:06FORECAST2021145-13933.1123.7628.435194.145581539071.91183.53189.8213.3518TT1.11-105.8953428.0849480865783.1108011943910.476767967501969021151210WETL
2021-02-16 11:00:06FORECAST2021145-13932.0521.7726.91197.954498542751.58823.26829.6812.9482TT0.049999999999997-103.9553429.719927462385.0649927546280.41979504989029021151210WETL
2021-02-16 07:00:08FORECAST2021145-13932.1321.7726.95197.731305952381.58823.248210.0713.3182TT0.13-113.8753429.6245576048984.950224844430.424051859274979021151210WETL
2021-02-16 03:00:08FORECAST2021145-13932.7222.0827.4199.248594392172.09943.839410.1914.0294TT0.72-102.2853430.2718283951785.7310570142880.455687794284539021151210WETL
2021-02-15 23:00:06FORECAST2021145-13931.7919.7925.79197.664569878142.80275.42279.7215.1427TT-0.21-106.2153429.5960308794584.9159146651420.406027562613889021151210WETL
2021-02-15 19:00:06FORECAST2021145-13931.7919.7925.79194.816688665262.62355.11359.6514.7635TT-0.21-109.2153428.3741703030483.4544373681670.406027562613889021151210WETL
2021-02-15 14:59:36FORECAST2021145-13932.6420.2626.45193.729276666442.65355.02359.614.6235TT0.64-111.3653427.9052882386282.8977819722120.451377077373189021151210WETL
2021-02-15 11:00:06FORECAST2021145-13933.7523.4728.61200.651422813620.70624.95629.6614.6162TT1.75-105.2553430.8680555816586.4542883973970.511474941829999031151212.5WETL
2021-02-15 07:00:08FORECAST2021145-13933.7526.4830.115202.9125158030.38634.636310.1814.8163TT1.75-107.2553431.8246000374187.6226159792160.511474941829999031151212.5WETL
2021-02-15 02:59:38FORECAST2021145-13928.3226.9727.645205.83457661130.14734.407310.2914.6973TT-3.68-111.6853433.0526544093789.1372097707490.23894605217678901115127.5WETL