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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 13, 2021

[ Friday, February 12, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 14, 2021 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 4.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.066
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -108

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.55 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 402.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-14 07:00:08OBSERVATION2021136-14820.580084.3019612.44102152.8540250.550000000000070.850000000000075.696.5400000000001TT-11.41992-108.4199244402.74571155378 61.5613030624840.06559346614519589 1113124.5WETL
2021-02-14 03:00:07OBSERVATION2021136-14820.580084.3019612.44102152.8540250.550000000000070.850000000000075.696.5400000000001TT-11.41992-108.4199244402.74571155378 61.5613030624840.06559346614519589 1113124.5WETL
2021-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2021136-14820.0912.4916.29146.67924663790.26340.56345.696.2534TF-11.91-108.9144399.660795402358.6219443803140.058980418981942891113124.5WETL
2021-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14819.316.1412.725149.079465052090.50480.80485.696.4948TT-12.69-109.6944400.8656949710259.7608433640150.049543972692011891113124.5WETL
2021-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-14818.537.0112.77150.242296956490.64210.94215.696.6321TT-13.47-110.4744401.446795532760.3142886666560.04134981381266891113124.5WETL
2021-02-12 22:59:39FORECAST2021136-14820.439.7315.08146.809308999240.77341.40345.697.0934TT-11.57-103.5744399.7262745719258.6835381587460.063510116433067891114126WETL
2021-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2021136-14820.479.5515.01147.359871895840.83841.46845.697.1584TT-11.53-103.5344400.0032129221458.944422214130.064060297438437891114126WETL
2021-02-12 15:00:01FORECAST2021136-14819.929.6614.79147.238960929830.81261.44265.697.1326TT-12.08-104.0844399.9424267435758.8871073454770.05681235379457891114126WETL
2021-02-12 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-14820.978.4214.695150.825709573180.81131.44135.697.1313TT-11.03-103.0344401.7376976664960.5923733128440.071252977528591891114126WETL
2021-02-12 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14819.757.6613.705150.376000357590.7431.4035.697.093TT-12.25-103.2544401.513501017760.3779943726150.054707346186505891114126WETL
2021-02-12 03:00:18FORECAST2021136-14819.947.6813.81150.578472051570.70351.42355.697.1135TT-12.06-105.0644401.614472327960.474493596930.057064125989198891114126WETL
2021-02-11 23:00:04FORECAST2021136-14819.77.0213.36150.402196218070.631.535.697.22TT-12.3-105.344401.5265676468360.3904776139880.05410006515253891115127.5WETL
2021-02-11 19:00:06FORECAST2021136-14819.75612.875151.057176097250.64341.57345.697.2634TT-12.25-108.2544401.8529924867560.7027782512780.054707346186505891115127.5WETL
2021-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2021136-14819.556.4813.015152.467431529640.81141.70145.697.3914TT-12.45-108.4544402.5539861880661.3763723261090.052310088289561891115127.5WETL
2021-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2021136-14817.294.7811.035155.636646944450.77241.71245.697.4024TT-14.71-113.7144404.1201717243962.8959084897980.030607513420036891115127.5WETL
2021-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14819.865.2412.55156.219239870280.68671.84675.697.5367TT-12.14-106.1444404.4067123457963.1761092010980.056062266681522891115127.5WETL
2021-02-11 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-14819.865.2412.55156.55040365330.68671.87675.697.5667TT-12.14-105.1444404.5694019541163.3355031816880.056062266681522891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2021136-14819.646.1512.895157.880363032840.7721.8625.717.572TT-12.36-100.3644405.2213895746963.9765000947220.053378361121383891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 19:00:05FORECAST2021136-14818.458.7513.6158.953724718940.8681.9985.717.708TT-13.55-103.5544405.7459812913464.4948350160.04057524957997891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2021136-14823.185.4114.295159.111200074850.88291.92295.717.6329TT-8.82-99.8244405.8228251091464.5709567208820.1105796131016891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-148225.0713.535158.805361958430.84131.84135.717.5513TT-10-10044405.6735560541164.4231359061370.087995414077155891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14819.944.5712.255159.207418440990.91451.85455.717.5645TT-12.06-100.0644405.8697620072864.6174770324360.057064125989198891115127.5WETL
2021-02-10 03:00:08FORECAST2021136-14819.763.3511.555160.882159615320.9352.0255.727.745TT-12.24-101.2444406.6848934612365.428343942970.054829444512883891115127.5WETL
2021-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2021136-14820.697.6114.15161.190912726850.71161.73165.747.4716TT-11.31-100.3144406.8347918540865.5780714279990.067152546347804891115127.5WETL
2021-02-09 19:00:06FORECAST2021136-14824.445.1914.815158.585634698310.32181.46185.747.2018TT-7.56-96.5644405.5662431406164.3169800806650.13896629464001891114126WETL
2021-02-09 15:00:06FORECAST2021136-14824.456.8615.655155.565155846820.34631.07635.766.8363TT-7.55-101.5544404.0849805564962.8615429756310.13920976802279891114126WETL
2021-02-09 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-14822.187.8615.02155.273838523520.47061.08065.746.8206TT-9.82-99.8244403.9415148359962.7215495475910.091199369245291891114126WETL
2021-02-09 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14817.699.0913.39153.574096362930.52020.87025.746.6102TT-14.31-104.3144403.1023188770561.9060743633450.033787587454315891113124.5WETL
2021-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-14822.4110.8716.64152.838516397670.64560.80565.766.5656TT-9.59-100.5944402.7380239139261.5538820719350.095417728852341891113124.5WETL
2021-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2021136-14814.565.510.03152.234318226620.44760.78765.786.5676TT-17.44-108.4444402.438286041561.2649181038170.01488100926358891113124.5WETL
2021-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2021136-14814.625.269.94154.502352776390.5115.776.77TT-17.38-106.3844403.561066233862.351134222070.01513203995616891114126WETL
2021-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2021136-14814.396.0810.235153.739030751260.51470.93475.756.6847TT-17.61-103.6144403.1839090298561.9851033887550.014189079749225891113124.5WETL
2021-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-14813.333.058.19146.246275546360.00420.36425.746.1042TF-18.67-107.6744399.4426625930858.4170016985580.010468572366521891112123WETL
2021-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14813.333.918.62145.625991957030.00450.32455.746.0645TF-18.67-107.6744399.1297425847758.123664683460.010468572366521891112123WETL
2021-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-14810.370.45.385149.671596792750.00450.61455.796.4045TF-21.63-123.6344401.1618147066560.0425293794220.0041913063897615891113124.5WETL
2021-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2021136-1480.22-7.88-3.83144.019572438850.10460.34465.696.0346TF-31.78-131.7844398.3170422898457.3654501256918.6211590231089E-5891112123WETL
2021-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2021136-1480.3-7.8-3.75145.135859664180.10460.35465.76.0546TF-31.7-133.744398.8821322333157.892101166368.9293772360277E-5891112123WETL
2021-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2021136-1482.07-3.78-0.855144.6527733950.05080.32085.86.1208TF-29.93-127.9344398.637779638857.6640604047780.00019071289909095891112123WETL
2021-02-07 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-14812.57-0.366.105142.683827418430.00090.06095.875.9309TF-19.43-125.4344397.6387487534556.7366186020190.0083534299251611891111121.5WETL
2021-02-07 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14812.57-0.366.105142.820087948670.00090.03095.935.9609TF-19.43-130.4344397.7080475294256.8006983260470.0083534299251611891111121.5WETL
2021-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-14814.580.67.59141.746762986680.00090.03095.775.8009TF-17.42-125.4244397.1615305079356.2963613323350.014964286056074891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 23:00:06FORECAST2021136-14816.183.299.735140.61635221620.00280.00285.375.3728TF-15.82-111.8244396.5843332705755.7662422906010.023054382510608891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 19:00:06FORECAST2021136-14818.56.0312.265139.706650746510.00280.00285.225.2228TF-13.5-106.544396.1186270566155.3404066843860.041057963779351891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2021136-14818.56.0312.265139.484102883380.00110.00115.25.2011TF-13.5-109.544396.0045335387855.2363370984090.041057963779351891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2021136-14813.719.5211.615144.590198352010.03450.13455.235.3645TF-18.29-117.2944398.6061062630857.6345359689030.011691058096901891112123WETL
2021-02-06 07:00:07FORECAST2021136-14811.479.8510.66146.157113622010.02270.12275.535.6527TF-20.53-134.5344399.3977126145558.3748168629770.0059571913274929891112123WETL
2021-02-06 03:00:07FORECAST2021136-1486.36.156.225143.454497036650.00180.00185.475.4718TF-25.7-130.744398.0303768877957.0992475217480.0010143986580826891111121.5WETL