MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 12, 2021

[ Thursday, February 11, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 13, 2021 ]

DAY 135 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 12.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 4.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 8.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.003
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -111

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 398.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-13 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021135-14912.810024.301968.55599145.296625416670.0899999999999180.299999999999925.826.1199999999999TF-19.18998-111.1899843398.20598631057 57.8579860316420.002543329196051289 1112123WETL
2021-02-13 03:00:07OBSERVATION2021135-14912.810024.301968.55599145.296625416670.0899999999999180.299999999999925.826.1199999999999TF-19.18998-111.1899843398.20598631057 57.8579860316420.002543329196051289 1112123WETL
2021-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2021135-14918.128.9213.52144.250750557810.42440.63445.826.4544TT-13.88-105.8843397.6747894860157.3648868612750.016602826493277891113124.5WETL
2021-02-12 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14918.897.4713.18144.095808025990.4480.6585.826.478TT-13.11-105.1143397.5959745393957.2919132191340.021064213294209891113124.5WETL
2021-02-12 03:00:18FORECAST2021135-14917.28.9213.06144.558413332130.5050.7155.826.535TT-14.8-106.843397.831197047857.5098466192520.012353987987869891113124.5WETL
2021-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2021135-14918.069.0313.545144.838773099550.61450.90455.826.7245TT-13.94-106.9443397.9736180891757.6420105700240.016291905535748891113124.5WETL
2021-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2021135-14915.387.9611.67145.120444612870.63980.92985.826.7498TT-16.62-109.6243398.1166033929957.7748584921560.006639000534844891113124.5WETL
2021-02-11 14:59:58FORECAST2021135-14914.87.4111.105145.053970641950.60460.89465.826.7146TT-17.2-110.243398.0828683400257.7435006972570.0053918367389912891113124.5WETL
2021-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2021135-14912.047.289.66148.095576901830.64860.93865.826.7586TT-19.96-112.9643399.62064370959.1820497719650.0018721846763083891113124.5WETL
2021-02-11 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14915.578.3711.97149.334190001930.74391.16395.826.9839TT-16.43-108.4343400.2434656490959.7700337462710.0070997054801815891114126WETL
2021-02-11 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-14915.578.3711.97149.588726198440.74391.19395.827.0139TT-16.43-107.4343400.3712136345759.8910198541180.0070997054801815891114126WETL
2021-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2021135-14915.77.9511.825150.134973788920.65591.10595.826.9259TT-16.3-102.343400.6450886380760.1508398813370.007430952720429891114126WETL
2021-02-10 19:00:05FORECAST2021135-14914.938.0311.48150.937420255580.7861.1465.826.966TT-17.07-104.0743401.0467269135460.5329583622720.0056516756183843891114126WETL
2021-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2021135-14916.317.7912.05150.132167745320.72451.06455.826.8845TT-15.69-104.6943400.6436827281260.1495045814410.0091735993309473891114126WETL
2021-02-10 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-14916.387.6212150.149228820490.71141.02145.826.8414TT-15.62-103.6243400.6522306712460.1576234604960.0093948181504762891114126WETL
2021-02-10 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14916.537.0811.805149.469538963190.63710.95715.826.7771TT-15.47-102.4743400.311405590859.8343612353650.0098846093741101891113124.5WETL
2021-02-10 03:00:08FORECAST2021135-14915.627.9711.795150.984338238220.71891.11895.826.9389TT-16.38-103.3843401.0701848502160.5553164466880.0072255351656298891114126WETL
2021-02-09 23:00:06FORECAST2021135-14916.276.8811.575153.940531841710.54191.05195.846.8919TT-15.73-102.7343402.5425922590261.9676207412930.0090492449267116891114126WETL
2021-02-09 19:00:06FORECAST2021135-14915.564.379.965154.965225003880.53071.17075.847.0107TT-16.44-103.4443403.0503918977962.4587946683440.0070747726901773891114126WETL
2021-02-09 15:00:06FORECAST2021135-14910.894.687.785151.799964459420.38840.77845.846.6184TT-21.11-108.1143401.4775332328360.9442752760.0011657034467281891113124.5WETL
2021-02-09 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-14915.435.4310.43150.431903740670.29940.63945.846.4794TT-16.57-103.5743400.7938026147660.2921747348030.006757603978638891113124.5WETL
2021-02-09 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14915.12.738.915147.97276109470.1520.3825.846.222TF-16.9-103.943399.5587803887959.1238159537580.0060082066918329891112123WETL
2021-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-14914.080.657.365146.407310054960.09170.21175.846.0517TF-17.92-104.9243398.7685569588158.3826317588370.0041359899576246891112123WETL
2021-02-08 23:00:06FORECAST2021135-14912.152.167.155146.75096842570.21390.41395.846.2539TF-19.85-104.8543398.9423014133758.5451690783910.0019569856641127891112123WETL
2021-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2021135-14912.712.447.575147.999410070060.2320.5525.846.392TF-19.29-103.2943399.5722053337259.1364506697840.0024453089582454891113124.5WETL
2021-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2021135-14912.712.447.575147.159841013070.25570.45575.846.2957TF-19.29-100.2943399.1488189632758.7386767391880.0024453089582454891112123WETL
2021-02-08 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-14911.870.266.065146.184957857750.03140.39145.846.2314TF-20.13-103.1343398.6560608170358.2775194502760.0017476875450674891112123WETL
2021-02-08 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14911.930.276.1145.559255878110.03140.35145.846.1914TF-20.07-103.0743398.3391540454257.9819508499660.0017907397405249891112123WETL
2021-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-1494.66-1.611.525149.594714543540.13920.66925.866.5292TT-27.34-116.3443400.374218102959.8938668676986.3850239435559E-5891113124.5WETL
2021-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2021135-1492.82-7.82-2.5141.468363084530.05760.38765.676.0576TF-29.18-114.1843396.2547329806956.0575084392772.4277930822769E-5891112123WETL
2021-02-07 19:00:06FORECAST2021135-1492.83-7.82-2.495142.51331788850.09960.40965.676.0796TF-29.17-116.1743396.7892272273456.547749274582.4409141064496E-5891112123WETL
2021-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2021135-1496.82-1.972.425143.48335855840.12120.52125.686.2012TF-25.18-112.1843397.2841347718157.0036619590270.00018644977924309891113124.5WETL
2021-02-07 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-1499.8-4.682.56142.669872478410.00230.35235.716.0623TF-22.2-120.243396.8691827581656.6212756947160.00073074853578242891112123WETL
2021-02-07 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-1499.8-4.762.52142.805714279340.00230.30235.796.0923TF-22.2-125.243396.9385340992156.6850908870330.00073074853578242891112123WETL
2021-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-14911.11-3.923.595141.732654737760.00230.13235.85.9323TF-20.89-121.8943396.3900521845656.1814144077570.0012782158420623891112123WETL
2021-02-06 23:00:06FORECAST2021135-14913.32-1.825.75140.5675676142100.085.425.5TF-18.68-109.6843395.7928362640355.6356362727620.0031005600849454891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 19:00:06FORECAST2021135-14918.071.359.71139.657492840900.045.315.35TF-13.93-106.9343395.3251069898655.2101132992650.016343377380336891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2021135-14918.071.359.71139.4640071170100.045.295.33TF-13.93-109.9343395.2255263336955.1197356174260.016343377380336891111121.5WETL
2021-02-06 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-14912.180.566.37143.953153048640.09770.14775.315.4577TF-19.82-112.8243397.5233824983757.22474432120.0019807115083515891112123WETL
2021-02-06 07:00:07FORECAST2021135-14912.260.566.41145.721512474260.09770.18775.575.7577TF-19.74-127.7443398.4213824613158.0585664543470.0020452638772526891112123WETL
2021-02-06 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-14912.23-0.116.06143.412464686510.00370.09375.515.6037TF-19.77-118.7743397.2480065330556.970315708710.0020208360943533891112123WETL
2021-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2021135-14925.3311.1718.25142.231545969190.07140.22144.294.5114TF-6.67-86.6743396.6452405919956.4154657707210.11122943315912891112123WETL
2021-02-05 19:00:06FORECAST2021135-14925.3310.117.715140.743287652330.0440.1844.134.314TF-6.67-87.6743395.8830224036255.7178780988280.11122943315912891112123WETL
2021-02-05 15:00:06FORECAST2021135-14924.1810.0217.1138.06696855360.00260.02264.14.1226TF-7.82-80.8243394.5050629143554.4681181156320.086155559280209891111121.5WETL
2021-02-05 11:00:06FORECAST2021135-14917.3913.7115.55142.845887100890.06630.29634.214.5063TF-14.61-86.6143396.9590389533856.7039660620110.01314485428042891112123WETL
2021-02-05 07:00:08FORECAST2021135-14918.5715.2816.925143.376732871230.05910.28914.44.6891TF-13.43-89.4343397.2297947703156.9535101732760.01910025845127891112123WETL
2021-02-05 03:00:07FORECAST2021135-14917.9717.8617.915144.099612686760.03070.24074.744.9807TF-14.03-84.0343397.5979102357657.2937048700390.015834863267779891112123WETL