Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 11, 2021

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DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/12/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.58°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 7.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 13.88°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.029 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -100 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.84 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 395.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 55.54 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-12 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	134	-150	20.58008	7.17998	13.88003	140.59683166667	0.21000000000004	0.21000000000004	6.84	7.05	T	T	-11.41992	-100.41992	42	395.03844737828	55.541154087905	0.029206485674743	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-12 03:00:18	OBSERVATION	2021	134	-150	20.58008	7.17998	13.88003	140.59683166667	0.21000000000004	0.21000000000004	6.84	7.05	T	T	-11.41992	-100.41992	42	395.03844737828	55.541154087905	0.029206485674743	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-11 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.86	8.3	14.08	142.30119987732	0.2944	0.2944	6.84	7.1344	T	T	-12.14	-101.14	42	395.91475618244	56.339144853896	0.023533822592758	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-11 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	20.76	8.49	14.625	142.99932082077	0.4172	0.4172	6.84	7.2572	T	T	-11.24	-100.24	42	396.27260454306	56.666713309537	0.030788504564179	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-11 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	21.97	8.49	15.23	143.18842100718	0.4476	0.4476	6.84	7.2876	T	T	-10.03	-99.03	42	396.36942584515	56.755512222289	0.043356337981682	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 22:59:59	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	21.82	8.38	15.1	144.31905413082	0.4277	0.4477	6.84	7.2877	T	T	-10.18	-94.18	42	396.94735274249	57.287066487527	0.041603687657886	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	20.8	8.62	14.71	143.77615447391	0.3445	0.3645	6.84	7.2045	T	T	-11.2	-95.2	42	396.67005490134	57.031695088671	0.031149667501815	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	18.9	8.11	13.505	143.54880564672	0.3198	0.3398	6.84	7.1798	T	T	-13.1	-97.1	42	396.5538178874	56.924826932382	0.017434275834664	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.85	7.87	13.86	143.63816120573	0.2894	0.3094	6.84	7.1494	T	T	-12.15	-96.15	42	396.59951085956	56.96682447496	0.02346206925622	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.84	8.17	14.005	143.42728133754	0.3027	0.3227	6.84	7.1627	T	T	-12.16	-95.16	42	396.49165841701	56.867720639763	0.023390499625173	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.54	7.87	13.705	144.18117026553	0.3719	0.4019	6.84	7.2419	T	T	-12.46	-95.46	42	396.8769617724	57.222184799772	0.021327111590085	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-09 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.26	7.8	13.53	148.52026677399	0.4772	0.5272	6.84	7.3672	T	T	-12.74	-94.74	42	399.08033369459	59.271517624575	0.019541969922958	87	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.45	8.05	13.75	149.70832053699	0.6117	0.6617	6.84	7.5017	T	T	-12.55	-94.55	42	399.67939882347	59.835331551097	0.020738880001703	87	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-02-09 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.07	7.54	13.305	147.52687581267	0.3435	0.4135	6.84	7.2535	T	T	-12.93	-94.93	42	398.57803588392	58.800972401505	0.018404124591266	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-09 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.21	8.32	13.765	147.18769729107	0.3072	0.3572	6.84	7.1972	T	T	-12.79	-94.79	42	398.4062433418	58.640497543864	0.019236903134702	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-09 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.5	6.88	13.19	146.22973053748	0.1998	0.2498	6.84	7.0898	T	T	-12.5	-94.5	42	397.92023699611	58.187769031351	0.02106395992694	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-09 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	18.68	4.59	11.635	145.28689143805	0.0661	0.1361	6.84	6.9761	T	T	-13.32	-95.32	42	397.44074928525	57.742930994463	0.016244115378199	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	17.9	2.54	10.22	144.03986558153	0.1325	0.2225	6.84	7.0625	T	T	-14.1	-93.1	42	396.80479886093	57.155709890034	0.012567723079685	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.19	4.44	11.815	144.92945198679	0.264	0.344	6.84	7.184	T	T	-12.81	-91.81	42	397.25867045019	57.574481405347	0.01911601238966	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	21.08	5.15	13.115	143.90022552074	0.1611	0.2211	6.84	7.0611	T	T	-10.92	-88.92	42	396.73346060722	57.090034453002	0.033776794066864	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.9	3.33	11.615	145.7170410189	0.3284	0.3784	6.84	7.2184	T	T	-12.1	-91.1	42	397.6596474368	57.945787157108	0.023822679988597	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.86	3.34	11.6	145.08482303864	0.286	0.336	6.84	7.176	T	T	-12.14	-91.14	42	397.33783641826	57.647689683301	0.023533822592758	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-08 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.65	2.29	10.97	147.42473289018	0.4703	0.5503	6.86	7.4103	T	T	-12.35	-97.35	42	398.52631648214	58.752635757087	0.022065117844424	87	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-02-07 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	19.98	-0.94	9.52	140.36875668551	0.1782	0.3482	6.67	7.0182	T	T	-12.02	-93.02	42	394.9208935137	55.434554811649	0.024409319162384	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	18.18	-0.01	9.085	140.70853651777	0.1507	0.3307	6.67	7.0007	T	T	-13.82	-94.82	42	395.09599718719	55.59337954824	0.013795004046692	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	16.95	0.07	8.51	141.33773500726	0.1527	0.4227	6.68	7.1027	T	T	-15.05	-95.05	42	395.41985242081	55.887746318063	0.0090803108244432	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	12.9	-6.71	3.095	142.6330488659	0.0566	0.3966	6.68	7.0766	T	T	-19.1	-106.1	42	396.08493709106	56.494802187157	0.0019451150493826	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	8.89	-7.86	0.515	142.76818618802	0.025	0.355	6.75	7.105	T	T	-23.11	-111.11	42	396.15419798131	56.55821629656	0.00032990462428822	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-07 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	9.31	-4.12	2.595	141.6967379824	0.0304	0.1804	6.77	6.9504	T	T	-22.69	-108.69	42	395.60440334251	56.055853485106	0.00040191685972635	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	11.5	-3.18	4.16	140.56756761421	0.0024	0.1624	6.36	6.5224	T	F	-20.5	-98.5	42	395.02336797801	55.527473987441	0.0010768161828011	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	11.5	-1.39	5.055	139.6574928409	0.0022	0.1222	6.25	6.3722	T	F	-20.5	-100.5	42	394.55385795132	55.102402592186	0.0010768161828011	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	11.5	-1.39	5.055	139.46400711701	0.0022	0.1322	6.22	6.3522	T	F	-20.5	-103.5	42	394.45389816877	55.012121261542	0.0010768161828011	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	11.32	0.08	5.7	142.28383473997	0.0036	0.1636	6.22	6.3836	T	F	-20.68	-100.68	42	395.90584693215	56.331002097483	0.00099580155994339	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	11.32	0.08	5.7	143.97984677988	0.0036	0.2436	6.44	6.6836	T	T	-20.68	-115.68	42	396.77414001185	57.127479885124	0.00099580155994339	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-06 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	13.23	0.56	6.895	143.32954527949	0.0037	0.2037	6.42	6.6237	T	T	-18.77	-106.77	42	396.44165267261	56.821801807414	0.0022262212972766	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	16.5	5.74	11.12	141.16360414455	0.1196	0.2596	5.2	5.4596	T	F	-15.5	-87.5	42	395.33027718439	55.806246754812	0.0077472728869548	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	16.5	5.74	11.12	140.10348900139	0.1196	0.2296	5.06	5.2896	T	F	-15.5	-88.5	42	394.78408418353	55.310627596333	0.0077472728869548	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	17.06	10.05	13.555	138.02002584725	0.0053	0.0553	5.08	5.1353	T	F	-14.94	-80.94	42	393.70634630862	54.339360093741	0.0094352007485328	87	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-05 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	20.91	13.25	17.08	141.87240088728	0.1925	0.3525	5.11	5.4625	T	F	-11.09	-80.09	42	395.69464422267	56.138149194106	0.032160920303253	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	20.91	13.25	17.08	142.4654498363	0.1925	0.2925	5.36	5.6525	T	F	-11.09	-84.09	42	395.99900581971	56.416176498831	0.032160920303253	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-05 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	23.08	15.56	19.32	143.61461193338	0.1937	0.2737	5.7	5.9737	T	F	-8.92	-77.92	42	396.58746968013	56.955755555754	0.058241853636211	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-04 23:02:27	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	29.71	22.37	26.04	153.44687538401	0.2237	0.4137	7	7.4137	T	T	-2.29	-70.29	42	401.55277882101	61.617019211851	0.23710547030449	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-04 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	29.72	22.3	26.01	153.35786050038	0.2193	0.3793	6.96	7.3393	T	T	-2.28	-65.28	42	401.50838012637	61.574466149155	0.23750301367766	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-04 14:55:17	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	27.59	20.29	23.94	153.10259095163	0.1989	0.3089	6.91	7.2189	T	T	-4.41	-65.41	42	401.38100152319	61.452471291959	0.16145642718906	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-04 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	25.94	22.88	24.41	151.92277846965	0.0183	0.0483	6.7	6.7483	T	T	-6.06	-66.06	42	400.79120509504	60.889313464238	0.1148809693573	87	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-04 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	25.4	22.78	24.09	150.51999303313	0.0101	0.0401	6.43	6.4701	T	F	-6.6	-64.6	42	400.08763898885	60.221188633244	0.10194502971064	87	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-02-04 02:55:21	FORECAST	2021	134	-150	27.28	27.02	27.15	148.85622580546	0.0003	0.0103	6.16	6.1703	T	F	-4.72	-53.72	42	399.24992129353	59.430836436884	0.15188079657772	87	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L