MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 9, 2021

[ Wednesday, December 8, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, December 10, 2021 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 73

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 41 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-10 07:00:07OBSERVATION20227015021.4300419.3299820.3800168.0625279166671.081.338.9710.3TT-10.5699673.4300423335.73846197768 22.8512084410540.1209266018880316 1214128WETL
2021-12-10 03:00:07OBSERVATION20227015021.4300419.3299820.3800168.0625279166671.081.338.9710.3TT-10.5699673.4300423335.73846197768 22.8512084410540.1209266018880316 1214128WETL
2021-12-09 11:00:01FORECAST20227015024.420.9322.66527.7444736525670.54090.79098.979.7609TT-7.676.423307.468215146638.53054379413750.186798072365411612132212WETL
2021-12-09 09:37:03FORECAST20227015028.4521.0224.73528.0534363084780.58220.83228.979.8022TT-3.5580.4523307.696046479948.63193144229530.305957871235941622132215WETL
2021-12-09 09:35:37FORECAST20227015028.4521.0224.73530.7303242251440.58220.76228.979.7322TT-3.5573.4523309.662535912429.5160301289690.305957871235941622132215WETL
2021-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20227015027.8820.123.9931.1365133084060.82381.00388.979.9738TT-4.1272.8823309.959762993159.65106628550670.287346268368861622142220WETL
2021-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20227015024.0321.122.56531.3199347177540.82971.00978.979.9797TT-7.9769.0323310.09388033519.71212008847040.177559716467111612142216WETL
2021-12-08 15:00:01FORECAST20227015025.0321.1723.131.7446646991550.90431.08438.9710.0543TT-6.9770.0323310.404202230329.85367732101020.203196511754161612142216WETL
2021-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20227015027.8220.3424.0832.6738861932310.93171.11178.9710.0817TT-4.1872.8223311.0819561684610.1642564326160.285418688625031622141210WETL
2021-12-08 10:37:49FORECAST20227015027.8220.3424.0832.6738861932310.93171.11178.9710.0817TT-4.1872.8223311.0819561684610.1642564326160.285418688625031622141210WETL
2021-12-08 07:00:06FORECAST20227015027.8520.6224.23543.81901941280.92771.26778.9710.2377TT-4.1575.8523319.0875362968813.9821029473760.286381709561179022141210WETL
2021-12-08 03:00:11FORECAST20227015027.8120.7224.26544.3808109710290.94121.43128.9710.4012TT-4.1978.8123319.485104175214.1790080164590.285098024302289022141210WETL
2021-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20227015027.8820.5424.2134.6185255084551.0051.7658.9710.735TT-4.1284.8823312.4951675152210.8181219278950.287346268368869022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 19:00:01FORECAST20227015027.8320.2324.0334.7321492554250.93421.80428.9710.7742TT-4.1784.8323312.5775246971610.8564892416730.285739524404969022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20227015027.3220.7224.0234.5619158900750.92221.73228.9710.7022TT-4.6884.3223312.4541266517210.7990132448440.269599429411839022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 12:27:39FORECAST20227015028.1420.4124.27534.2854141704020.9021.6628.9710.632TT-3.8685.1423312.2535834996610.7057434364780.295769402917759022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20227015028.0520.3424.19550.2725722508130.92071.70078.9710.6707TT-3.9586.0523323.6205825481816.2692391180040.292840893872779022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 07:00:14FORECAST20227015027.6320.2323.9350.3781740038790.90331.74338.9710.7133TT-4.3785.6323323.6941422261116.3071198211040.279355604012689022151212.5WETL
2021-12-07 03:00:08FORECAST20227015027.5920.1823.88550.3071977579590.86421.71428.9710.6842TT-4.4185.5923323.6447040298216.2816581289440.278087174688139022151212.5WETL
2021-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20227015027.7820.524.1432.2000568880190.94021.86027.99.7602TT-4.2288.7823310.7365552627410.0057347566470.284137062007749022151212.5WETL
2021-12-06 19:00:03FORECAST20227015028.320.3424.3231.9016728877310.86411.80417.99.7041TT-3.790.323310.518832925259.90607023346110.301008555163579022152225WETL
2021-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20227015024.419.5421.9731.5942793461480.7691.6997.99.599TT-7.686.423310.294363954849.80352681432460.186798072365419012152220WETL
2021-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20227015027.0419.4323.23532.0177724806580.78911.72917.99.6291TT-4.9688.0423310.603567115629.94483434358860.260936419513669022152225WETL
2021-12-06 07:00:04FORECAST20227015026.4920.9423.71533.3289890848220.8321.7828.129.902TT-5.5183.4923311.5588134602710.3839402930970.244345817638749012151210WETL
2021-12-06 03:00:05FORECAST20227015025.8419.6622.7534.2119111869510.81531.76538.3610.1253TT-6.1685.8423312.2002490269910.6809671922550.225494559274249012151210WETL
2021-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20227015023.1819.6421.4129.3930314473660.70681.61688.510.1168TT-8.8286.1823308.681808212199.07309409601080.157448389733479012152220WETL
2021-12-05 19:00:05FORECAST20227015027.8619.9123.88530.3456112092710.70651.74658.5110.2565TT-4.1490.8623309.380740945499.38834768036810.286703058548879022152225WETL
2021-12-05 15:00:05FORECAST20227015026.9719.6423.30531.4559686096460.70531.85538.410.2553TT-5.0390.9723310.193307678629.75743094926120.258793223480999022152225WETL
2021-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20227015027.0419.6523.34531.8630484528530.67781.88788.4110.2978TT-4.9690.0423310.490637706879.89317823341140.260936419513669022152225WETL
2021-12-05 07:00:18FORECAST20227015026.3320.1123.2231.6298916650740.75372.04378.4210.4637TT-5.6789.3323310.320378229499.81539994486360.239628293183859012152220WETL
2021-12-05 03:00:11FORECAST20227015027.0920.2623.67530.9751350486140.50621.80628.6710.4762TT-4.9190.0923309.841711872489.59738886894360.262472835465839022152225WETL
2021-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20227015022.415.4718.93528.9257879928130.37171.75178.4110.1617TT-9.685.423308.338360771168.91893005371820.140361230363749012152220WETL
2021-12-04 19:00:04FORECAST20227015023.3815.5819.4830.6580331056150.39531.75538.5410.2953TT-8.6279.3823309.609605050229.4920215214460.162040619003089012152220WETL
2021-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20227015023.3919.9221.65533.0823667635860.61081.91088.5610.4708TT-8.6179.3923311.3793872226310.301167090720.162272491914629012151210WETL
2021-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20227015026.2515.120.67535.2520345631650.73161.96168.5810.5416TT-5.7580.2523312.9540468477811.032266876160.237288275800329012151210WETL
2021-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20227015023.5516.5820.06536.7986360304660.72412.0541911.0541TT-8.4575.5523314.071223556911.5573926433130.166011739747719012151210WETL
2021-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20227015024.7916.4520.6236.2651473977880.72411.75418.8410.5941TT-7.2173.7923313.686357515611.3758819919790.196850841788639012151210WETL
2021-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20227015025.3216.0520.68535.2340926717010.41671.56678.6710.2367TT-6.6880.3223312.9410608796911.0261943398150.211024588402979012151210WETL
2021-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20227015026.6717.7222.19534.4104612656690.44731.60738.389.9873TT-5.3379.6723312.3442959996910.747911299050.249712204825929022151212.5WETL
2021-12-03 15:00:05FORECAST20227015026.6817.5122.09535.0646760032120.44731.66738.5210.1873TT-5.3279.6823312.8184114353610.968876244820.250012159047079022151212.5WETL
2021-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20227015022.8713.7718.3238.3118025479550.66252.26258.4710.7325TT-9.1374.8723315.1600095841912.0743480582010.150500680679399012151210WETL
2021-12-03 07:00:20FORECAST20227015022.8713.7818.32537.0649034116660.66252.26258.5710.8325TT-9.1379.8723314.2631174951511.6481320958070.150500680679399012151210WETL
2021-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20227015022.8212.317.5641.270188638870.66852.24858.8311.0785TT-9.1868.8223317.2766404240313.0940668010070.149399455255129012151210WETL
2021-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20227015022.6611.7117.18539.2230609285790.62411.82418.9110.7341TT-9.3472.6623315.8136817307412.3871792806040.145911659516879012151210WETL
2021-12-02 19:00:04FORECAST20227015022.7114.2318.4740.4858121284440.62241.83248.9110.7424TT-9.2973.7123316.7169926077212.8225446606020.146995684758949012151210WETL
2021-12-02 15:00:04FORECAST20227015025.6518.9522.339.1111889638330.52821.70829.0910.7982TT-6.3576.6523315.7335141626212.348713134630.220143533535979012151210WETL
2021-12-02 11:00:04FORECAST20227015024.721.8423.2731.7291170345270.24491.06498.89.8649TT-7.375.723310.392848489999.84849101641930.194502425919229012142216WETL
2021-12-02 07:00:09FORECAST20227015025.9324.0224.97531.4049650329990.16120.99128.599.5812TT-6.0775.9323310.156033125589.74043937508260.228054684933019012142216WETL
2021-12-02 03:00:22FORECAST20227015025.9424.4925.21529.2442481747790.09990.92998.579.4999TT-6.0684.9423308.572489251339.02397045557520.228340147178349012132212WETL