Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 9, 2021
[
Wednesday, December 8, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Friday, December 10, 2021 ]
DAY 70
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.38°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 73
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.30 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 41 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.92 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-10 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 21.43004 | 19.32998 | 20.38001 | 68.062527916667 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 8.97 | 10.3 | T | T | -10.56996 | 73.43004 | 23 | 335.73846197768 | 22.851208441054 | 0.12092660188803 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 21.43004 | 19.32998 | 20.38001 | 68.062527916667 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 8.97 | 10.3 | T | T | -10.56996 | 73.43004 | 23 | 335.73846197768 | 22.851208441054 | 0.12092660188803 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 24.4 | 20.93 | 22.665 | 27.744473652567 | 0.5409 | 0.7909 | 8.97 | 9.7609 | T | T | -7.6 | 76.4 | 23 | 307.46821514663 | 8.5305437941375 | 0.18679807236541 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 28.45 | 21.02 | 24.735 | 28.053436308478 | 0.5822 | 0.8322 | 8.97 | 9.8022 | T | T | -3.55 | 80.45 | 23 | 307.69604647994 | 8.6319314422953 | 0.30595787123594 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:35:37 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 28.45 | 21.02 | 24.735 | 30.730324225144 | 0.5822 | 0.7622 | 8.97 | 9.7322 | T | T | -3.55 | 73.45 | 23 | 309.66253591242 | 9.516030128969 | 0.30595787123594 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.88 | 20.1 | 23.99 | 31.136513308406 | 0.8238 | 1.0038 | 8.97 | 9.9738 | T | T | -4.12 | 72.88 | 23 | 309.95976299315 | 9.6510662855067 | 0.28734626836886 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 24.03 | 21.1 | 22.565 | 31.319934717754 | 0.8297 | 1.0097 | 8.97 | 9.9797 | T | T | -7.97 | 69.03 | 23 | 310.0938803351 | 9.7121200884704 | 0.17755971646711 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.03 | 21.17 | 23.1 | 31.744664699155 | 0.9043 | 1.0843 | 8.97 | 10.0543 | T | T | -6.97 | 70.03 | 23 | 310.40420223032 | 9.8536773210102 | 0.20319651175416 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.82 | 20.34 | 24.08 | 32.673886193231 | 0.9317 | 1.1117 | 8.97 | 10.0817 | T | T | -4.18 | 72.82 | 23 | 311.08195616846 | 10.164256432616 | 0.28541868862503 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:49 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.82 | 20.34 | 24.08 | 32.673886193231 | 0.9317 | 1.1117 | 8.97 | 10.0817 | T | T | -4.18 | 72.82 | 23 | 311.08195616846 | 10.164256432616 | 0.28541868862503 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.85 | 20.62 | 24.235 | 43.8190194128 | 0.9277 | 1.2677 | 8.97 | 10.2377 | T | T | -4.15 | 75.85 | 23 | 319.08753629688 | 13.982102947376 | 0.28638170956117 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.81 | 20.72 | 24.265 | 44.380810971029 | 0.9412 | 1.4312 | 8.97 | 10.4012 | T | T | -4.19 | 78.81 | 23 | 319.4851041752 | 14.179008016459 | 0.28509802430228 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.88 | 20.54 | 24.21 | 34.618525508455 | 1.005 | 1.765 | 8.97 | 10.735 | T | T | -4.12 | 84.88 | 23 | 312.49516751522 | 10.818121927895 | 0.28734626836886 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.83 | 20.23 | 24.03 | 34.732149255425 | 0.9342 | 1.8042 | 8.97 | 10.7742 | T | T | -4.17 | 84.83 | 23 | 312.57752469716 | 10.856489241673 | 0.28573952440496 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.32 | 20.72 | 24.02 | 34.561915890075 | 0.9222 | 1.7322 | 8.97 | 10.7022 | T | T | -4.68 | 84.32 | 23 | 312.45412665172 | 10.799013244844 | 0.26959942941183 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 28.14 | 20.41 | 24.275 | 34.285414170402 | 0.902 | 1.662 | 8.97 | 10.632 | T | T | -3.86 | 85.14 | 23 | 312.25358349966 | 10.705743436478 | 0.29576940291775 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 28.05 | 20.34 | 24.195 | 50.272572250813 | 0.9207 | 1.7007 | 8.97 | 10.6707 | T | T | -3.95 | 86.05 | 23 | 323.62058254818 | 16.269239118004 | 0.29284089387277 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.63 | 20.23 | 23.93 | 50.378174003879 | 0.9033 | 1.7433 | 8.97 | 10.7133 | T | T | -4.37 | 85.63 | 23 | 323.69414222611 | 16.307119821104 | 0.27935560401268 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.59 | 20.18 | 23.885 | 50.307197757959 | 0.8642 | 1.7142 | 8.97 | 10.6842 | T | T | -4.41 | 85.59 | 23 | 323.64470402982 | 16.281658128944 | 0.27808717468813 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.78 | 20.5 | 24.14 | 32.200056888019 | 0.9402 | 1.8602 | 7.9 | 9.7602 | T | T | -4.22 | 88.78 | 23 | 310.73655526274 | 10.005734756647 | 0.28413706200774 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 28.3 | 20.34 | 24.32 | 31.901672887731 | 0.8641 | 1.8041 | 7.9 | 9.7041 | T | T | -3.7 | 90.3 | 23 | 310.51883292525 | 9.9060702334611 | 0.30100855516357 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 24.4 | 19.54 | 21.97 | 31.594279346148 | 0.769 | 1.699 | 7.9 | 9.599 | T | T | -7.6 | 86.4 | 23 | 310.29436395484 | 9.8035268143246 | 0.18679807236541 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.04 | 19.43 | 23.235 | 32.017772480658 | 0.7891 | 1.7291 | 7.9 | 9.6291 | T | T | -4.96 | 88.04 | 23 | 310.60356711562 | 9.9448343435886 | 0.26093641951366 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.49 | 20.94 | 23.715 | 33.328989084822 | 0.832 | 1.782 | 8.12 | 9.902 | T | T | -5.51 | 83.49 | 23 | 311.55881346027 | 10.383940293097 | 0.24434581763874 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.84 | 19.66 | 22.75 | 34.211911186951 | 0.8153 | 1.7653 | 8.36 | 10.1253 | T | T | -6.16 | 85.84 | 23 | 312.20024902699 | 10.680967192255 | 0.22549455927424 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 23.18 | 19.64 | 21.41 | 29.393031447366 | 0.7068 | 1.6168 | 8.5 | 10.1168 | T | T | -8.82 | 86.18 | 23 | 308.68180821219 | 9.0730940960108 | 0.15744838973347 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.86 | 19.91 | 23.885 | 30.345611209271 | 0.7065 | 1.7465 | 8.51 | 10.2565 | T | T | -4.14 | 90.86 | 23 | 309.38074094549 | 9.3883476803681 | 0.28670305854887 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.97 | 19.64 | 23.305 | 31.455968609646 | 0.7053 | 1.8553 | 8.4 | 10.2553 | T | T | -5.03 | 90.97 | 23 | 310.19330767862 | 9.7574309492612 | 0.25879322348099 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.04 | 19.65 | 23.345 | 31.863048452853 | 0.6778 | 1.8878 | 8.41 | 10.2978 | T | T | -4.96 | 90.04 | 23 | 310.49063770687 | 9.8931782334114 | 0.26093641951366 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.33 | 20.11 | 23.22 | 31.629891665074 | 0.7537 | 2.0437 | 8.42 | 10.4637 | T | T | -5.67 | 89.33 | 23 | 310.32037822949 | 9.8153999448636 | 0.23962829318385 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 27.09 | 20.26 | 23.675 | 30.975135048614 | 0.5062 | 1.8062 | 8.67 | 10.4762 | T | T | -4.91 | 90.09 | 23 | 309.84171187248 | 9.5973888689436 | 0.26247283546583 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.4 | 15.47 | 18.935 | 28.925787992813 | 0.3717 | 1.7517 | 8.41 | 10.1617 | T | T | -9.6 | 85.4 | 23 | 308.33836077116 | 8.9189300537182 | 0.14036123036374 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 23.38 | 15.58 | 19.48 | 30.658033105615 | 0.3953 | 1.7553 | 8.54 | 10.2953 | T | T | -8.62 | 79.38 | 23 | 309.60960505022 | 9.492021521446 | 0.16204061900308 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 23.39 | 19.92 | 21.655 | 33.082366763586 | 0.6108 | 1.9108 | 8.56 | 10.4708 | T | T | -8.61 | 79.39 | 23 | 311.37938722263 | 10.30116709072 | 0.16227249191462 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.25 | 15.1 | 20.675 | 35.252034563165 | 0.7316 | 1.9616 | 8.58 | 10.5416 | T | T | -5.75 | 80.25 | 23 | 312.95404684778 | 11.03226687616 | 0.23728827580032 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 23.55 | 16.58 | 20.065 | 36.798636030466 | 0.7241 | 2.0541 | 9 | 11.0541 | T | T | -8.45 | 75.55 | 23 | 314.0712235569 | 11.557392643313 | 0.16601173974771 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 24.79 | 16.45 | 20.62 | 36.265147397788 | 0.7241 | 1.7541 | 8.84 | 10.5941 | T | T | -7.21 | 73.79 | 23 | 313.6863575156 | 11.375881991979 | 0.19685084178863 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.32 | 16.05 | 20.685 | 35.234092671701 | 0.4167 | 1.5667 | 8.67 | 10.2367 | T | T | -6.68 | 80.32 | 23 | 312.94106087969 | 11.026194339815 | 0.21102458840297 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.67 | 17.72 | 22.195 | 34.410461265669 | 0.4473 | 1.6073 | 8.38 | 9.9873 | T | T | -5.33 | 79.67 | 23 | 312.34429599969 | 10.74791129905 | 0.24971220482592 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 26.68 | 17.51 | 22.095 | 35.064676003212 | 0.4473 | 1.6673 | 8.52 | 10.1873 | T | T | -5.32 | 79.68 | 23 | 312.81841143536 | 10.96887624482 | 0.25001215904707 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.87 | 13.77 | 18.32 | 38.311802547955 | 0.6625 | 2.2625 | 8.47 | 10.7325 | T | T | -9.13 | 74.87 | 23 | 315.16000958419 | 12.074348058201 | 0.15050068067939 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:20 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.87 | 13.78 | 18.325 | 37.064903411666 | 0.6625 | 2.2625 | 8.57 | 10.8325 | T | T | -9.13 | 79.87 | 23 | 314.26311749515 | 11.648132095807 | 0.15050068067939 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.82 | 12.3 | 17.56 | 41.27018863887 | 0.6685 | 2.2485 | 8.83 | 11.0785 | T | T | -9.18 | 68.82 | 23 | 317.27664042403 | 13.094066801007 | 0.14939945525512 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.66 | 11.71 | 17.185 | 39.223060928579 | 0.6241 | 1.8241 | 8.91 | 10.7341 | T | T | -9.34 | 72.66 | 23 | 315.81368173074 | 12.387179280604 | 0.14591165951687 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 22.71 | 14.23 | 18.47 | 40.485812128444 | 0.6224 | 1.8324 | 8.91 | 10.7424 | T | T | -9.29 | 73.71 | 23 | 316.71699260772 | 12.822544660602 | 0.14699568475894 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.65 | 18.95 | 22.3 | 39.111188963833 | 0.5282 | 1.7082 | 9.09 | 10.7982 | T | T | -6.35 | 76.65 | 23 | 315.73351416262 | 12.34871313463 | 0.22014353353597 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 24.7 | 21.84 | 23.27 | 31.729117034527 | 0.2449 | 1.0649 | 8.8 | 9.8649 | T | T | -7.3 | 75.7 | 23 | 310.39284848999 | 9.8484910164193 | 0.19450242591922 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.93 | 24.02 | 24.975 | 31.404965032999 | 0.1612 | 0.9912 | 8.59 | 9.5812 | T | T | -6.07 | 75.93 | 23 | 310.15603312558 | 9.7404393750826 | 0.22805468493301 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:22 | FORECAST | 2022 | 70 | 150 | 25.94 | 24.49 | 25.215 | 29.244248174779 | 0.0999 | 0.9299 | 8.57 | 9.4999 | T | T | -6.06 | 84.94 | 23 | 308.57248925133 | 9.0239704555752 | 0.22834014717834 | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |