MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 7, 2021

[ Monday, December 6, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 8, 2021 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.587
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-08 07:00:05OBSERVATION20226814834.4699631.2699232.8699437.22433501.397.659.04TT2.4699696.4699625316.5245548964 11.782416067190.5869418611737892 33141214WETL
2021-12-08 03:00:10OBSERVATION20226814834.4699631.2699232.8699437.22433501.397.659.04TT2.4699696.4699625316.5245548964 11.782416067190.5869418611737892 33141214WETL
2021-12-07 12:27:39FORECAST20226814838.2932.5635.42526.8284013333330.12071.51077.659.1607TT6.29100.2925308.995682312668.28986017535120.725448574021819243152240WETL
2021-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20226814838.8232.8335.82542.7558040.12951.51957.659.1695TT6.82100.8225320.4502183305213.7011067266970.742719294578029243151220WETL
2021-12-07 07:00:13FORECAST20226814838.7732.9235.84542.5934303333330.14641.53647.659.1864TT6.77100.7725320.3357663630413.6441991478590.741114406457929243151220WETL
2021-12-07 03:00:08FORECAST20226814838.5731.8735.2242.6066050.17091.56097.659.2109TT6.57100.5725320.3450545209213.6488152016760.734643519967139243151220WETL
2021-12-06 23:00:01FORECAST20226814837.5332.2534.8923.8023253333330.20580.52587.658.1758TT5.53104.5325306.766540523487.3017569989210.699726889591359243132224WETL
2021-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20226814838.132.2235.1623.7684320.20090.52097.658.1709TT6.1105.125306.74147603687.29076391476030.719120988425519243132224WETL
2021-12-06 15:00:01FORECAST20226814837.5231.5934.55523.8399906666670.14510.46517.658.1151TT5.52104.5225306.794391913737.31397543980890.699381306476239243122216WETL
2021-12-06 11:00:01FORECAST20226814837.9231.6634.7923.9480894124330.1570.4777.658.127TT5.92104.9225306.874310045477.34905341534760.71306221773069243122216WETL
2021-12-06 07:00:03FORECAST20226814837.9231.4934.70524.6534621824220.15040.69047.658.3404TT5.92100.9225307.395258484847.5783573801120.71306221773069243132224WETL
2021-12-06 03:00:05FORECAST20226814836.8531.153425.2292054615030.13110.91117.658.5611TT4.85103.8525307.819778629897.7660484401680.675831654313159233132221WETL
2021-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20226814836.0231.0733.54521.6056557337220.13731.05737.658.7073TT4.02107.0225305.137609395096.59269814000130.64566254320579233142228WETL
2021-12-05 19:00:04FORECAST20226814837.131.2134.15521.9509539994470.17231.10237.658.7523TT5.1107.125305.394266305386.70369549136420.684708049272029233142228WETL
2021-12-05 15:00:03FORECAST20226814837.1630.3533.75521.9672351355080.18581.00587.658.6558TT5.16108.1625305.406362362426.70893337389550.686822875976089233142228WETL
2021-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20226814837.1830.4733.82522.1242081026980.17851.00857.658.6585TT5.18107.1825305.522959645776.75945353935510.687526460567889233142228WETL
2021-12-05 07:00:17FORECAST20226814836.5530.6833.61521.729466419220.2731.1137.658.763TT4.55106.5525305.229662585096.63247770329240.665047029857699233142228WETL
2021-12-05 03:00:10FORECAST20226814836.9530.5533.7522.484650628840.28851.37857.659.0285TT4.95105.9525305.790515352536.87559290331470.679394576555659233142228WETL
2021-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20226814836.6830.3233.521.5783929984880.24631.52637.28.7263TT4.68104.6825305.117335674156.58394177982850.669737739952859233152235WETL
2021-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20226814836.3330.5133.4223.1756762997870.26651.67657.28.8765TT4.33100.3325306.302777745867.09877402676380.657050305668269233152235WETL
2021-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20226814835.8129.7632.78523.1207845612490.24881.67887.28.8788TT3.8199.8125306.262118964167.08102047184190.637872861191759233152235WETL
2021-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20226814833.6929.231.44524.48644286130.21291.66297.28.8629TT1.6997.6925307.271991782077.52399806964940.556546747273489233152235WETL
2021-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20226814833.3828.4830.9325.8778001768650.23791.73797.579.3079TT1.3895.3825308.297272229597.978055205830.544362508299549233152235WETL
2021-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20226814831.6528.329.97525.6442187243870.12231.35237.689.0323TT-0.3592.6525308.125400851747.90163517398130.475921361121859223142224WETL
2021-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20226814832.426.2829.3425.4761842996150.09681.18687.658.8368TT0.499.425308.001696500127.84670798463130.505623708566299233142228WETL
2021-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20226814834.3722.628.48524.833527259050.0860.9567.588.536TT2.3796.3725307.528094891847.63700732742050.58307142407099233132221WETL
2021-12-03 15:00:05FORECAST20226814834.1822.6528.41525.2319065535820.12161.16167.558.7116TT2.1896.1825307.821768797877.76693010546630.575692714312139233142228WETL
2021-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20226814834.3320.0727.226.2896292008460.15831.12837.578.6983TT2.3394.3325308.600051535638.11298092623380.581520349315089233142228WETL
2021-12-03 07:00:17FORECAST20226814834.3520.0627.20524.7798817310670.15831.25837.548.7983TT2.3599.3525307.488526224537.61952931350410.582296046705129233142228WETL
2021-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20226814829.5720.0124.7927.0212887129210.16181.52187.549.0618TT-2.4387.5725309.137191676568.35328530819390.394742866603299223152230WETL
2021-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20226814834.1223.3928.75525.9285644549450.05371.72377.319.0337TT2.1293.1225308.33461156477.99467384964580.573356944135589233152235WETL
2021-12-02 19:00:04FORECAST20226814834.1523.4628.80526.6696445391930.05531.74537.299.0353TT2.1594.1525308.87916039188.23769741321390.574525156121589233152235WETL
2021-12-02 15:00:04FORECAST20226814834.0725.529.78527.1684004477340.05912.13917.089.2191TT2.0794.0725309.245071729988.40169394524810.571408498467469233152235WETL
2021-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20226814835.9927.631.79525.4170715157220.10991.90997.078.9799TT3.9993.9925307.958166024997.82739472970770.644553364016679233152235WETL
2021-12-02 07:00:08FORECAST20226814835.926.4531.17526.696476512170.10431.83436.938.7643TT3.991.925308.898857418968.24651109172120.641218510100629233152235WETL
2021-12-02 03:00:20FORECAST20226814835.9326.5931.2625.0765395900310.10431.83436.918.7443TT3.93100.9325307.707272029417.71623358918590.642331338945949233152235WETL
2021-12-01 23:00:06FORECAST20226814832.3929.613129.3680666468140.56833.23836.9710.2083TT0.39106.3925310.853333745879.1291614228330.505227516272459233152235WETL
2021-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20226814833.129.3431.2228.1748139006180.52513.13517.0210.1551TT1.1106.125309.98201516388.73368558977850.533321084679749233152235WETL
2021-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20226814835.1527.3631.25524.2974145874160.52512.90516.979.8751TT3.15104.1525307.13241852477.46252370613050.61303075358659233152235WETL
2021-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20226814839.0130.4434.72520.395255800930.05752.22757.189.4075TT7.01116.0125304.236151048336.20497412452120.748770441820139243152240WETL
2021-12-01 07:00:07FORECAST20226814839.0430.3234.6820.1091549445720.05752.22757.289.5075TT7.04116.0425304.022669093666.11363895946670.749718969168119243152240WETL
2021-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20226814839.1732.3535.7619.8303932867650.06032.22037.319.5303TT7.17112.1725303.814514210676.0247613030250.753807247673339243152240WETL
2021-11-30 23:00:07FORECAST20226814838.0726.7332.419.5112438847280.0980.5387.337.868TT6.07118.0725303.57602025185.92314576868810.718115496128379243132224WETL
2021-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20226814838.425.2431.8217.9456533574850.08250.88257.288.1625TT6.4122.425302.403281320465.42682446074320.729079527910859243132224WETL
2021-11-30 15:00:06FORECAST20226814838.4524.7131.5817.4810872226090.08250.88257.117.9925TT6.45125.4525302.05438998355.28023913727360.730722013584479243132224WETL
2021-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20226814829.8927.4228.65516.5181301779830.11431.77436.858.6243TT-2.11117.8925301.329892316044.9774063877940.407028306367479223153245WETL
2021-11-30 10:16:43FORECAST20226814829.8927.4228.65516.5181301779830.11431.77436.858.6243TT-2.11117.8925301.329892316044.9774063877940.407028306367479223153245WETL
2021-11-30 07:00:16FORECAST20226814828.3227.4227.8727.8748186522950.10641.76647.028.7864TT-3.68117.3225309.76254152688.63457467033350.347850656900149223152230WETL
2021-11-30 03:00:14FORECAST20226814827.3126.9727.1427.943810250.07221.95226.98.8522TT-4.69110.3125309.81302992458.65735652118780.311555368576049223152230WETL