Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 7, 2021
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Monday, December 6, 2021 |
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Wednesday, December 8, 2021 ]
DAY 68
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.87°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.587
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.04 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.35 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-08 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.46996 | 31.26992 | 32.86994 | 37.224335 | 0 | 1.39 | 7.65 | 9.04 | T | T | 2.46996 | 96.46996 | 25 | 316.5245548964 | 11.78241606719 | 0.58694186117378 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:10 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.46996 | 31.26992 | 32.86994 | 37.224335 | 0 | 1.39 | 7.65 | 9.04 | T | T | 2.46996 | 96.46996 | 25 | 316.5245548964 | 11.78241606719 | 0.58694186117378 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.29 | 32.56 | 35.425 | 26.828401333333 | 0.1207 | 1.5107 | 7.65 | 9.1607 | T | T | 6.29 | 100.29 | 25 | 308.99568231266 | 8.2898601753512 | 0.72544857402181 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.82 | 32.83 | 35.825 | 42.755804 | 0.1295 | 1.5195 | 7.65 | 9.1695 | T | T | 6.82 | 100.82 | 25 | 320.45021833052 | 13.701106726697 | 0.74271929457802 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.77 | 32.92 | 35.845 | 42.593430333333 | 0.1464 | 1.5364 | 7.65 | 9.1864 | T | T | 6.77 | 100.77 | 25 | 320.33576636304 | 13.644199147859 | 0.74111440645792 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.57 | 31.87 | 35.22 | 42.606605 | 0.1709 | 1.5609 | 7.65 | 9.2109 | T | T | 6.57 | 100.57 | 25 | 320.34505452092 | 13.648815201676 | 0.73464351996713 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.53 | 32.25 | 34.89 | 23.802325333333 | 0.2058 | 0.5258 | 7.65 | 8.1758 | T | T | 5.53 | 104.53 | 25 | 306.76654052348 | 7.301756998921 | 0.69972688959135 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.1 | 32.22 | 35.16 | 23.768432 | 0.2009 | 0.5209 | 7.65 | 8.1709 | T | T | 6.1 | 105.1 | 25 | 306.7414760368 | 7.2907639147603 | 0.71912098842551 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.52 | 31.59 | 34.555 | 23.839990666667 | 0.1451 | 0.4651 | 7.65 | 8.1151 | T | T | 5.52 | 104.52 | 25 | 306.79439191373 | 7.3139754398089 | 0.69938130647623 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.92 | 31.66 | 34.79 | 23.948089412433 | 0.157 | 0.477 | 7.65 | 8.127 | T | T | 5.92 | 104.92 | 25 | 306.87431004547 | 7.3490534153476 | 0.7130622177306 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.92 | 31.49 | 34.705 | 24.653462182422 | 0.1504 | 0.6904 | 7.65 | 8.3404 | T | T | 5.92 | 100.92 | 25 | 307.39525848484 | 7.578357380112 | 0.7130622177306 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.85 | 31.15 | 34 | 25.229205461503 | 0.1311 | 0.9111 | 7.65 | 8.5611 | T | T | 4.85 | 103.85 | 25 | 307.81977862989 | 7.766048440168 | 0.67583165431315 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.02 | 31.07 | 33.545 | 21.605655733722 | 0.1373 | 1.0573 | 7.65 | 8.7073 | T | T | 4.02 | 107.02 | 25 | 305.13760939509 | 6.5926981400013 | 0.6456625432057 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.1 | 31.21 | 34.155 | 21.950953999447 | 0.1723 | 1.1023 | 7.65 | 8.7523 | T | T | 5.1 | 107.1 | 25 | 305.39426630538 | 6.7036954913642 | 0.68470804927202 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.16 | 30.35 | 33.755 | 21.967235135508 | 0.1858 | 1.0058 | 7.65 | 8.6558 | T | T | 5.16 | 108.16 | 25 | 305.40636236242 | 6.7089333738955 | 0.68682287597608 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 37.18 | 30.47 | 33.825 | 22.124208102698 | 0.1785 | 1.0085 | 7.65 | 8.6585 | T | T | 5.18 | 107.18 | 25 | 305.52295964577 | 6.7594535393551 | 0.68752646056788 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.55 | 30.68 | 33.615 | 21.72946641922 | 0.273 | 1.113 | 7.65 | 8.763 | T | T | 4.55 | 106.55 | 25 | 305.22966258509 | 6.6324777032924 | 0.66504702985769 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.95 | 30.55 | 33.75 | 22.48465062884 | 0.2885 | 1.3785 | 7.65 | 9.0285 | T | T | 4.95 | 105.95 | 25 | 305.79051535253 | 6.8755929033147 | 0.67939457655565 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.68 | 30.32 | 33.5 | 21.578392998488 | 0.2463 | 1.5263 | 7.2 | 8.7263 | T | T | 4.68 | 104.68 | 25 | 305.11733567415 | 6.5839417798285 | 0.66973773995285 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 36.33 | 30.51 | 33.42 | 23.175676299787 | 0.2665 | 1.6765 | 7.2 | 8.8765 | T | T | 4.33 | 100.33 | 25 | 306.30277774586 | 7.0987740267638 | 0.65705030566826 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 35.81 | 29.76 | 32.785 | 23.120784561249 | 0.2488 | 1.6788 | 7.2 | 8.8788 | T | T | 3.81 | 99.81 | 25 | 306.26211896416 | 7.0810204718419 | 0.63787286119175 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 33.69 | 29.2 | 31.445 | 24.4864428613 | 0.2129 | 1.6629 | 7.2 | 8.8629 | T | T | 1.69 | 97.69 | 25 | 307.27199178207 | 7.5239980696494 | 0.55654674727348 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 33.38 | 28.48 | 30.93 | 25.877800176865 | 0.2379 | 1.7379 | 7.57 | 9.3079 | T | T | 1.38 | 95.38 | 25 | 308.29727222959 | 7.97805520583 | 0.54436250829954 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 31.65 | 28.3 | 29.975 | 25.644218724387 | 0.1223 | 1.3523 | 7.68 | 9.0323 | T | T | -0.35 | 92.65 | 25 | 308.12540085174 | 7.9016351739813 | 0.47592136112185 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 32.4 | 26.28 | 29.34 | 25.476184299615 | 0.0968 | 1.1868 | 7.65 | 8.8368 | T | T | 0.4 | 99.4 | 25 | 308.00169650012 | 7.8467079846313 | 0.50562370856629 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.37 | 22.6 | 28.485 | 24.83352725905 | 0.086 | 0.956 | 7.58 | 8.536 | T | T | 2.37 | 96.37 | 25 | 307.52809489184 | 7.6370073274205 | 0.5830714240709 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.18 | 22.65 | 28.415 | 25.231906553582 | 0.1216 | 1.1616 | 7.55 | 8.7116 | T | T | 2.18 | 96.18 | 25 | 307.82176879787 | 7.7669301054663 | 0.57569271431213 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.33 | 20.07 | 27.2 | 26.289629200846 | 0.1583 | 1.1283 | 7.57 | 8.6983 | T | T | 2.33 | 94.33 | 25 | 308.60005153563 | 8.1129809262338 | 0.58152034931508 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.35 | 20.06 | 27.205 | 24.779881731067 | 0.1583 | 1.2583 | 7.54 | 8.7983 | T | T | 2.35 | 99.35 | 25 | 307.48852622453 | 7.6195293135041 | 0.58229604670512 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 29.57 | 20.01 | 24.79 | 27.021288712921 | 0.1618 | 1.5218 | 7.54 | 9.0618 | T | T | -2.43 | 87.57 | 25 | 309.13719167656 | 8.3532853081939 | 0.39474286660329 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.12 | 23.39 | 28.755 | 25.928564454945 | 0.0537 | 1.7237 | 7.31 | 9.0337 | T | T | 2.12 | 93.12 | 25 | 308.3346115647 | 7.9946738496458 | 0.57335694413558 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.15 | 23.46 | 28.805 | 26.669644539193 | 0.0553 | 1.7453 | 7.29 | 9.0353 | T | T | 2.15 | 94.15 | 25 | 308.8791603918 | 8.2376974132139 | 0.57452515612158 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 34.07 | 25.5 | 29.785 | 27.168400447734 | 0.0591 | 2.1391 | 7.08 | 9.2191 | T | T | 2.07 | 94.07 | 25 | 309.24507172998 | 8.4016939452481 | 0.57140849846746 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 35.99 | 27.6 | 31.795 | 25.417071515722 | 0.1099 | 1.9099 | 7.07 | 8.9799 | T | T | 3.99 | 93.99 | 25 | 307.95816602499 | 7.8273947297077 | 0.64455336401667 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 35.9 | 26.45 | 31.175 | 26.69647651217 | 0.1043 | 1.8343 | 6.93 | 8.7643 | T | T | 3.9 | 91.9 | 25 | 308.89885741896 | 8.2465110917212 | 0.64121851010062 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:20 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 35.93 | 26.59 | 31.26 | 25.076539590031 | 0.1043 | 1.8343 | 6.91 | 8.7443 | T | T | 3.93 | 100.93 | 25 | 307.70727202941 | 7.7162335891859 | 0.64233133894594 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 32.39 | 29.61 | 31 | 29.368066646814 | 0.5683 | 3.2383 | 6.97 | 10.2083 | T | T | 0.39 | 106.39 | 25 | 310.85333374587 | 9.129161422833 | 0.50522751627245 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 33.1 | 29.34 | 31.22 | 28.174813900618 | 0.5251 | 3.1351 | 7.02 | 10.1551 | T | T | 1.1 | 106.1 | 25 | 309.9820151638 | 8.7336855897785 | 0.53332108467974 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 35.15 | 27.36 | 31.255 | 24.297414587416 | 0.5251 | 2.9051 | 6.97 | 9.8751 | T | T | 3.15 | 104.15 | 25 | 307.1324185247 | 7.4625237061305 | 0.6130307535865 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 39.01 | 30.44 | 34.725 | 20.39525580093 | 0.0575 | 2.2275 | 7.18 | 9.4075 | T | T | 7.01 | 116.01 | 25 | 304.23615104833 | 6.2049741245212 | 0.74877044182013 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 39.04 | 30.32 | 34.68 | 20.109154944572 | 0.0575 | 2.2275 | 7.28 | 9.5075 | T | T | 7.04 | 116.04 | 25 | 304.02266909366 | 6.1136389594667 | 0.74971896916811 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 39.17 | 32.35 | 35.76 | 19.830393286765 | 0.0603 | 2.2203 | 7.31 | 9.5303 | T | T | 7.17 | 112.17 | 25 | 303.81451421067 | 6.024761303025 | 0.75380724767333 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.07 | 26.73 | 32.4 | 19.511243884728 | 0.098 | 0.538 | 7.33 | 7.868 | T | T | 6.07 | 118.07 | 25 | 303.5760202518 | 5.9231457686881 | 0.71811549612837 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.4 | 25.24 | 31.82 | 17.945653357485 | 0.0825 | 0.8825 | 7.28 | 8.1625 | T | T | 6.4 | 122.4 | 25 | 302.40328132046 | 5.4268244607432 | 0.72907952791085 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 38.45 | 24.71 | 31.58 | 17.481087222609 | 0.0825 | 0.8825 | 7.11 | 7.9925 | T | T | 6.45 | 125.45 | 25 | 302.0543899835 | 5.2802391372736 | 0.73072201358447 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 29.89 | 27.42 | 28.655 | 16.518130177983 | 0.1143 | 1.7743 | 6.85 | 8.6243 | T | T | -2.11 | 117.89 | 25 | 301.32989231604 | 4.977406387794 | 0.40702830636747 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 10:16:43 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 29.89 | 27.42 | 28.655 | 16.518130177983 | 0.1143 | 1.7743 | 6.85 | 8.6243 | T | T | -2.11 | 117.89 | 25 | 301.32989231604 | 4.977406387794 | 0.40702830636747 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 28.32 | 27.42 | 27.87 | 27.874818652295 | 0.1064 | 1.7664 | 7.02 | 8.7864 | T | T | -3.68 | 117.32 | 25 | 309.7625415268 | 8.6345746703335 | 0.34785065690014 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 68 | 148 | 27.31 | 26.97 | 27.14 | 27.94381025 | 0.0722 | 1.9522 | 6.9 | 8.8522 | T | T | -4.69 | 110.31 | 25 | 309.8130299245 | 8.6573565211878 | 0.31155536857604 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |