Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 5, 2021
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Saturday, December 4, 2021 |
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Monday, December 6, 2021 ]
DAY 66
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2021 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.26°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.07°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.237
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 98
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.11 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.35 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-06 07:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 27.26006 | 18.87008 | 23.06507 | 23.800805416667 | 0 | 1.05 | 8.06 | 9.11 | T | T | -4.73994 | 98.26006 | 27 | 308.96965270191 | 7.3537265836131 | 0.23723563081062 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:04 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 27.26006 | 18.87008 | 23.06507 | 23.800805416667 | 0 | 1.05 | 8.06 | 9.11 | T | T | -4.73994 | 98.26006 | 27 | 308.96965270191 | 7.3537265836131 | 0.23723563081062 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 30.78 | 22.45 | 26.615 | 20.096262741233 | 0.0277 | 1.0777 | 8.06 | 9.1377 | T | T | -1.22 | 101.78 | 27 | 306.23812043045 | 6.1542417295517 | 0.36954665714151 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 30.59 | 19.62 | 25.105 | 19.716190822573 | 0.0379 | 1.0879 | 8.06 | 9.1479 | T | T | -1.41 | 101.59 | 27 | 305.95641915253 | 6.0322951434023 | 0.36178876366377 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 30.33 | 19.22 | 24.775 | 19.758162776464 | 0.0419 | 1.0919 | 8.06 | 9.1519 | T | T | -1.67 | 101.33 | 27 | 305.98754123755 | 6.0457516473413 | 0.35126460368627 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.85 | 18.76 | 24.305 | 18.070318694155 | 0.0183 | 0.6183 | 8.06 | 8.6783 | T | T | -2.15 | 100.85 | 27 | 304.73338990849 | 5.5066294723964 | 0.332136851593 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.77 | 18.4 | 24.085 | 18.108719695082 | 0.0268 | 0.6268 | 8.06 | 8.6868 | T | T | -2.23 | 100.77 | 27 | 304.76198355779 | 5.5188493339653 | 0.32898932434776 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.83 | 20.69 | 25.26 | 18.12331498894 | 0.035 | 0.635 | 8.06 | 8.695 | T | T | -2.17 | 100.83 | 27 | 304.7728505825 | 5.523494371184 | 0.33134884858312 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.83 | 20.72 | 25.275 | 19.125577693285 | 0.0361 | 0.6361 | 8.06 | 8.6961 | T | T | -2.17 | 100.83 | 27 | 305.51812917464 | 5.8432107162367 | 0.33134884858312 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.84 | 21.23 | 25.535 | 19.928178016023 | 0.0348 | 1.0048 | 8.06 | 9.0648 | T | T | -2.16 | 96.84 | 27 | 306.11357312205 | 6.100285778297 | 0.33174275709196 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.67 | 21.14 | 25.405 | 20.470652288237 | 0.0264 | 1.1064 | 8.06 | 9.1664 | T | T | -2.33 | 99.67 | 27 | 306.5153443004 | 6.2745690341828 | 0.32507191184203 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.65 | 20.84 | 25.245 | 20.65965273812 | 0.0263 | 1.0763 | 8.06 | 9.1363 | T | T | -2.35 | 102.65 | 27 | 306.65519318049 | 6.3353898014499 | 0.32429072508405 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.48 | 21.6 | 25.54 | 20.774299414424 | 0.0406 | 1.0206 | 8.06 | 9.0806 | T | T | -2.52 | 103.48 | 27 | 306.73999206576 | 6.372308437552 | 0.31768210175716 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.32 | 21.3 | 25.31 | 20.427509830806 | 0.0348 | 0.9848 | 8.06 | 9.0448 | T | T | -2.68 | 100.32 | 27 | 306.48341208357 | 6.2606929133162 | 0.3115147513696 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.27 | 20.67 | 24.97 | 21.450911368676 | 0.0491 | 1.0191 | 8.06 | 9.0791 | T | T | -2.73 | 102.27 | 27 | 307.23994828034 | 6.5905768994782 | 0.30959813322253 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.55 | 20.48 | 25.015 | 20.25268659233 | 0.0667 | 1.0067 | 8.06 | 9.0667 | T | T | -2.45 | 101.55 | 27 | 306.35397951358 | 6.2044911334018 | 0.32039643037336 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.55 | 20.8 | 25.175 | 20.455072095136 | 0.0961 | 1.0361 | 8.06 | 9.0961 | T | T | -2.45 | 95.55 | 27 | 306.50381290606 | 6.2695575904274 | 0.32039643037336 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.61 | 20.29 | 24.95 | 19.726844770319 | 0.0441 | 0.7941 | 8.02 | 8.8141 | T | T | -2.39 | 93.61 | 27 | 305.96431933884 | 6.0357106328535 | 0.32273067069799 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 31.23 | 18.77 | 25 | 19.781018952185 | 0.0459 | 0.7759 | 8.02 | 8.7959 | T | T | -0.77 | 95.23 | 27 | 306.00448763186 | 6.0530805692994 | 0.38812842694235 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 31.5 | 19.27 | 25.385 | 19.587335846676 | 0.1365 | 0.6565 | 8.02 | 8.6765 | T | T | -0.5 | 96.5 | 27 | 305.86085282135 | 5.9909992465625 | 0.39940476863129 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 31.71 | 19.81 | 25.76 | 18.773068814573 | 0.0152 | 0.5252 | 8.02 | 8.5452 | T | T | -0.29 | 95.71 | 27 | 305.25622123773 | 5.7305960473725 | 0.40823417001925 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 31.87 | 21.08 | 26.475 | 18.544458195149 | 0.0332 | 0.4032 | 8.02 | 8.4232 | T | T | -0.13 | 94.87 | 27 | 305.08624214369 | 5.6576590633488 | 0.41499299846092 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:19 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.03 | 21.03 | 26.53 | 18.460886804504 | 0.0332 | 0.3832 | 8.02 | 8.4032 | T | T | 0.030000000000001 | 98.03 | 27 | 305.02407957978 | 5.6310150057703 | 0.4217770774046 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.64 | 20.07 | 26.355 | 21.47409973249 | 0.0981 | 0.4681 | 8.06 | 8.5281 | T | T | 0.64 | 105.64 | 27 | 307.257067201 | 6.5980689045867 | 0.44783795033775 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.66 | 20.09 | 26.375 | 21.638417320484 | 0.0981 | 0.5181 | 8.06 | 8.5781 | T | T | 0.66 | 103.66 | 27 | 307.37834656429 | 6.6511809382387 | 0.44869686756531 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 33.63 | 19.59 | 26.61 | 21.031581665548 | 0.0452 | 0.4052 | 8.07 | 8.4752 | T | T | 1.63 | 104.63 | 27 | 306.93020207595 | 6.4552276105835 | 0.49056671958277 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 33.26 | 20.39 | 26.825 | 20.537476930935 | 0.0198 | 0.5998 | 8.06 | 8.6598 | T | T | 1.26 | 108.26 | 27 | 306.56479815905 | 6.2960674700281 | 0.4745582202412 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.3 | 21.03 | 26.665 | 20.283786609061 | 0.0207 | 0.6907 | 8.07 | 8.7607 | T | T | 0.3 | 108.3 | 27 | 306.37700900271 | 6.2144858725334 | 0.43327699813666 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.31 | 21.04 | 26.675 | 19.457239235659 | 0.0154 | 0.6854 | 8.1 | 8.7854 | T | T | 0.31 | 105.31 | 27 | 305.76433388464 | 5.9493297941254 | 0.43370407073517 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 39.33 | 20.97 | 30.15 | 17.615660446966 | 0.0595 | 0.7395 | 8.11 | 8.8495 | T | T | 7.33 | 112.33 | 27 | 304.39463617694 | 5.3621125527709 | 0.72413733185155 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.08 | 27.17 | 34.125 | 16.285580155478 | 0.0454 | 0.6754 | 8.11 | 8.7854 | T | T | 9.08 | 116.08 | 27 | 303.40137963309 | 4.9410674872973 | 0.78383205612106 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.16 | 29.14 | 35.15 | 15.982606649025 | 0.0464 | 0.5464 | 8.07 | 8.6164 | T | T | 9.16 | 119.16 | 27 | 303.17466019767 | 4.8455213398912 | 0.78636985287372 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 44.28 | 31.26 | 37.77 | 14.084168855547 | 0.1102 | 0.3602 | 8.06 | 8.4202 | T | T | 12.28 | 120.28 | 27 | 301.7500531894 | 4.2498987012897 | 0.87135897485619 | 91 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 10:16:43 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 44.28 | 31.26 | 37.77 | 14.084168855547 | 0.1102 | 0.3602 | 8.06 | 8.4202 | T | T | 12.28 | 120.28 | 27 | 301.7500531894 | 4.2498987012897 | 0.87135897485619 | 91 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 44.34 | 31.53 | 37.935 | 27.876023583333 | 0.1102 | 0.3602 | 8.23 | 8.5902 | T | T | 12.34 | 121.34 | 27 | 311.94496101614 | 8.695785089988 | 0.87272347154099 | 91 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 43.9 | 30 | 36.95 | 28.033572916667 | 0.1317 | 0.3117 | 8.18 | 8.4917 | T | T | 11.9 | 115.9 | 27 | 312.05937026816 | 8.7481391107415 | 0.86248229518874 | 91 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 38.34 | 24.95 | 31.645 | 19.095888 | 0.2062 | 0.4862 | 8.12 | 8.6062 | T | T | 6.34 | 112.34 | 27 | 305.49607929395 | 5.8337189146364 | 0.68711548904353 | 91 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.72 | 26.45 | 34.085 | 18.798774666667 | 0.0179 | 0.2879 | 8.12 | 8.4079 | T | T | 9.72 | 120.72 | 27 | 305.27532816449 | 5.738802105457 | 0.8036433083854 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.69 | 26.55 | 34.12 | 18.791996 | 0.0179 | 0.2879 | 8.06 | 8.3479 | T | T | 9.69 | 120.69 | 27 | 305.27028976414 | 5.7366380641665 | 0.80273992412724 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.24 | 32.9 | 37.07 | 18.213841333333 | 0.145 | 0.385 | 8.04 | 8.425 | T | T | 9.24 | 127.24 | 27 | 304.8402435865 | 5.5523118286993 | 0.78889023946064 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.48 | 33.18 | 37.33 | 17.730542833333 | 0.145 | 0.385 | 8.22 | 8.605 | T | T | 9.48 | 120.48 | 27 | 304.48026891784 | 5.3986004499527 | 0.79634626560978 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 03:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 41.3 | 29.53 | 35.415 | 17.8903335 | 0.0045 | 0.0845 | 8.4 | 8.4845 | T | T | 9.3 | 119.3 | 27 | 304.59933451922 | 5.4493836784269 | 0.790769062471 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.65 | 22.39 | 27.52 | 20.715020970459 | 0.0259 | 1.0459 | 8.9 | 9.9459 | T | T | 0.65 | 103.65 | 27 | 306.69614960419 | 6.35321717061 | 0.4482673786389 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.69 | 22.1 | 27.395 | 20.562185318034 | 0.0185 | 1.0385 | 8.8 | 9.8385 | T | T | 0.69 | 106.69 | 27 | 306.58308157959 | 6.3040181388135 | 0.44998569311889 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 15:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.67 | 23.37 | 28.02 | 19.249046666667 | 0.022 | 1.122 | 8.68 | 9.802 | T | T | 0.67 | 110.67 | 27 | 305.60980902512 | 5.8826974757156 | 0.44912641661937 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.26 | 25.34 | 28.8 | 18.924982666667 | 0.0112 | 0.2612 | 8.8 | 9.0612 | T | T | 0.26 | 117.26 | 27 | 305.36911932989 | 5.7791052902534 | 0.43156949156981 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 32.28 | 25.41 | 28.845 | 18.990469916667 | 0.0112 | 0.2612 | 9.02 | 9.2812 | T | T | 0.28 | 118.28 | 27 | 305.41777417222 | 5.8000270524328 | 0.43242308711062 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 66 | 146 | 29.08 | 28.04 | 28.56 | 19.374448583333 | 0.0044 | 0.1844 | 9.02 | 9.2044 | T | T | -2.92 | 104.08 | 27 | 305.7028947249 | 5.9228250156237 | 0.30236239493987 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |