MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 4, 2021

[ Friday, December 3, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 5, 2021 ]

DAY 65 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2021 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.627
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 100

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 20 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-05 07:00:13OBSERVATION20226514536.1423.6600629.9000319.5849345833331.05000000000011.10000000000018.019.1100000000001TT4.14100.1428306.96672126882 6.01192315531010.6268774629648894 33142228WETL
2021-12-05 03:00:08OBSERVATION20226514536.1423.6600629.9000319.5849345833331.05000000000011.10000000000018.019.1100000000001TT4.14100.1428306.96672126882 6.01192315531010.6268774629648894 33142228WETL
2021-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20226514535.6524.7630.20518.9999663075510.60170.65178.018.6617TT3.6599.6528306.534125653315.82413805952770.603697096447079433132221WETL
2021-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20226514532.4925.128.79519.791904015890.97431.02438.019.0343TT0.4996.4928307.119625385126.07848214701840.448954314521779423142224WETL
2021-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20226514534.7824.9329.85520.358995003861.08151.13158.019.1415TT2.7898.7828307.538167158656.26116800867930.561674312728929433142228WETL
2021-12-03 23:00:01FORECAST20226514535.2924.8630.07520.546035548221.05211.10218.019.1121TT3.29102.2928307.676080361556.32152368444550.586424707717369433142228WETL
2021-12-03 19:00:01FORECAST20226514535.6324.7730.220.6020915047420.9761.0268.019.036TT3.63102.6328307.717400119616.33962203486530.602742503253179433142228WETL
2021-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20226514533.3724.3128.8420.2819371222710.95021.00028.019.0102TT1.37100.3728307.48132994056.23631700012540.492279723013759423142224WETL
2021-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20226514535.3623.6929.52521.2303264551510.97461.02468.019.0346TT3.36102.3628308.180080110486.54276370772030.589797474580749433142228WETL
2021-12-03 07:00:15FORECAST20226514534.8323.4229.12520.0112175812730.93960.98968.018.9996TT2.83100.8328307.281561362176.14907818313150.564113159552739433132221WETL
2021-12-03 03:00:07FORECAST20226514533.2723.228.23520.0938865068910.93540.98548.018.9954TT1.2795.2728307.342578745546.17570689604810.487342159559089423132218WETL
2021-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20226514532.8622.1727.51519.531388712760.74630.75638.018.7663TT0.8692.8628306.927149757645.9947134684160.467126580394289423132218WETL
2021-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20226514532.4121.6827.04519.564327349770.72910.73918.018.7491TT0.4193.4128306.951492732016.00529948430960.445037891462449423132218WETL
2021-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20226514532.820.7726.78518.9347855387570.52430.53438.018.5443TT0.893.828306.485883372665.80324447231770.464174055392589423132218WETL
2021-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20226514532.4621.0526.75518.7120346226180.51460.52468.018.5346TT0.4693.4628306.32095830675.73188837746860.447485052007519423132218WETL
2021-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20226514531.9721.2626.61518.3976279644620.37090.38098.018.3909TT-0.03000000000000191.9728306.088012348695.63129337557280.423603355570659423122212WETL
2021-12-02 03:00:17FORECAST20226514531.4821.0126.24518.3132044170850.34520.35528.018.3652TT-0.5295.4828306.025430699025.60430626921750.399999068955759423122212WETL
2021-12-01 23:00:05FORECAST20226514530.8321.4226.12521.052786391720.37010.40018.038.4301TT-1.17101.8328308.049400939596.48529823607840.369255810226489423122212WETL
2021-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20226514530.3122.7626.53521.2098678099980.41710.44718.038.4771TT-1.69100.3128308.165024435636.53613943194460.345239168848769423122212WETL
2021-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20226514529.8722.2226.04521.0080061686440.36030.40038.038.4303TT-2.1399.8728308.01643094546.47081108134490.325388517779469423122212WETL
2021-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20226514533.3624.2628.8120.4663082624680.57940.60948.038.6394TT1.36104.3628307.617301946176.29579052849910.491785900940129423132218WETL
2021-12-01 07:00:07FORECAST20226514533.1425.6229.3820.2210446583260.66890.69898.048.7389TT1.14105.1428307.436408323326.21668534230110.480926339581929423132218WETL
2021-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20226514533.525.6329.56519.4188817185780.66730.70738.068.7673TT1.5101.528306.843987214465.95856709377450.498700211236239423132218WETL
2021-11-30 23:00:07FORECAST20226514532.2126.529.35517.5209572124550.67910.70918.088.7891TT0.21102.2128305.437497844915.35155733081980.435271092476079423132218WETL
2021-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20226514533.2427.230.2216.4111563124870.61640.65648.088.7364TT1.24104.2428304.611913898494.99903373363390.485861234333429423133227WETL
2021-11-30 15:00:06FORECAST20226514535.9229.6432.7816.2009814897890.49930.52938.048.5693TT3.92106.9228304.455301999444.93247471216120.616521108085059433133231.5WETH
2021-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20226514535.9528.7532.3514.6956155222140.24520.305288.3052TT3.95104.9528303.331130340274.45763766739910.617938435539999433123221WETH
2021-11-30 10:16:43FORECAST20226514535.9528.7532.3514.6956155222140.24520.305288.3052TT3.95104.9528303.331130340274.45763766739910.617938435539999433123221WETH
2021-11-30 07:00:15FORECAST20226514536.3528.7632.55528.5166075833330.24520.29528.188.4752TT4.35106.3528313.492659307388.93974714572410.636678430770099433122214WETL
2021-11-30 03:00:13FORECAST20226514532.2428.8830.5628.5582089166670.17730.22738.138.3573TT0.24101.2428313.522710300088.95364706086930.436733747398779423122212WETL
2021-11-29 23:00:05FORECAST20226514534.2426.0130.12519.2064240.27870.35878.048.3987TT2.24103.2428306.686878602035.89035822566710.535204518818389433122214WETL
2021-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20226514534.5326.2530.3919.2059866666670.27480.33488.068.3948TT2.53107.5328306.686555114555.8902178883760.549446745813139433122214WETL
2021-11-29 15:00:04FORECAST20226514534.722630.3619.1952720.27340.36347.978.3334TT2.72107.7228306.678629559025.88677971097270.558744610162129433122214WETL
2021-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20226514541.9632.2937.12518.7166653333330.23730.33737.948.2773TT9.96114.9628306.324387840745.73337105065340.851838551051079453122218WETL
2021-11-29 07:00:11FORECAST20226514541.9132.2737.0918.25129750.23730.35738.18.4573TT9.91107.9128305.979531691365.58452346180960.850401177864399453122218WETL
2021-11-29 03:00:17FORECAST20226514540.1329.434.76518.2792321666670.08030.20038.288.4803TT8.13107.1328306.000243897025.59344950125020.793221044829619443122216WETL
2021-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20226514532.2222.227.2120.7185743037931.01231.05238.879.9223TT0.22100.2228307.803242674966.37724435430940.435758546753539423142224WETL
2021-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20226514531.9621.826.8820.5659573180341.01231.05238.779.8223TT-0.039999999999999102.9628307.690765696266.32795515446260.423118576585289423142224WETL
2021-11-28 15:00:06FORECAST20226514533.5324.2428.88519.2527093333331.08971.11978.669.7797TT1.53106.5328306.721112986455.90521243472470.500181970742559433142228WETL
2021-11-28 11:00:07FORECAST20226514542.5431.463718.9264040.24980.27988.779.0498TT10.54113.5428306.479679359895.80055822935570.867838182763629453122218WETL
2021-11-28 07:00:15FORECAST20226514542.5531.4637.00518.9920005833330.24980.27988.999.2698TT10.55114.5528306.528230405565.82158433067060.868103199944729453122218WETL
2021-11-28 03:00:09FORECAST20226514537.0229.0633.0419.3744485833330.17640.20648.999.1964TT5.02104.0228306.811136731545.94429659339940.667328142954579433122214WETL
2021-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20226514536.2727.2631.76522.6980613333330.11140.31147.858.1614TT4.27110.2728309.25815865797.01956065305080.632954865531829433122214WETL
2021-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20226514537.0726.2531.6622.4831666666670.07670.40678.348.7467TT5.07113.0728309.100565567716.94955953241970.669574246727129433122214WETL
2021-11-27 15:00:05FORECAST20226514540.0730.835.43522.1796573333330.0220.3627.818.172TT8.07120.0728308.877840285276.85080465538740.791092382335889443122216WETL
2021-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20226514541.1734.8738.0222.0826786666671.04422.04427.819.8542TT9.17112.1728308.806637897576.81927775482580.828045741763329443152240WETL
2021-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20226514536.0235.5935.80521.6391629166670.37811.38817.578.9581TT4.02104.0228308.480782042186.67526589927150.621239364634399433142228WETL
2021-11-27 03:00:17FORECAST20226514536.2535.8636.05522.9717718931130.13591.14597.638.7759TT4.25105.2528309.458759891077.10881604254330.63202200163339433142228WETL