Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 4, 2021
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Sunday, December 5, 2021 ]
DAY 65
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2021 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.90°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.627
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 100
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.11 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 20 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.01 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-05 07:00:13 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.14 | 23.66006 | 29.90003 | 19.584934583333 | 1.0500000000001 | 1.1000000000001 | 8.01 | 9.1100000000001 | T | T | 4.14 | 100.14 | 28 | 306.96672126882 | 6.0119231553101 | 0.62687746296488 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.14 | 23.66006 | 29.90003 | 19.584934583333 | 1.0500000000001 | 1.1000000000001 | 8.01 | 9.1100000000001 | T | T | 4.14 | 100.14 | 28 | 306.96672126882 | 6.0119231553101 | 0.62687746296488 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.65 | 24.76 | 30.205 | 18.999966307551 | 0.6017 | 0.6517 | 8.01 | 8.6617 | T | T | 3.65 | 99.65 | 28 | 306.53412565331 | 5.8241380595277 | 0.60369709644707 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.49 | 25.1 | 28.795 | 19.79190401589 | 0.9743 | 1.0243 | 8.01 | 9.0343 | T | T | 0.49 | 96.49 | 28 | 307.11962538512 | 6.0784821470184 | 0.44895431452177 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 34.78 | 24.93 | 29.855 | 20.35899500386 | 1.0815 | 1.1315 | 8.01 | 9.1415 | T | T | 2.78 | 98.78 | 28 | 307.53816715865 | 6.2611680086793 | 0.56167431272892 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.29 | 24.86 | 30.075 | 20.54603554822 | 1.0521 | 1.1021 | 8.01 | 9.1121 | T | T | 3.29 | 102.29 | 28 | 307.67608036155 | 6.3215236844455 | 0.58642470771736 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.63 | 24.77 | 30.2 | 20.602091504742 | 0.976 | 1.026 | 8.01 | 9.036 | T | T | 3.63 | 102.63 | 28 | 307.71740011961 | 6.3396220348653 | 0.60274250325317 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.37 | 24.31 | 28.84 | 20.281937122271 | 0.9502 | 1.0002 | 8.01 | 9.0102 | T | T | 1.37 | 100.37 | 28 | 307.4813299405 | 6.2363170001254 | 0.49227972301375 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.36 | 23.69 | 29.525 | 21.230326455151 | 0.9746 | 1.0246 | 8.01 | 9.0346 | T | T | 3.36 | 102.36 | 28 | 308.18008011048 | 6.5427637077203 | 0.58979747458074 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 34.83 | 23.42 | 29.125 | 20.011217581273 | 0.9396 | 0.9896 | 8.01 | 8.9996 | T | T | 2.83 | 100.83 | 28 | 307.28156136217 | 6.1490781831315 | 0.56411315955273 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.27 | 23.2 | 28.235 | 20.093886506891 | 0.9354 | 0.9854 | 8.01 | 8.9954 | T | T | 1.27 | 95.27 | 28 | 307.34257874554 | 6.1757068960481 | 0.48734215955908 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.86 | 22.17 | 27.515 | 19.53138871276 | 0.7463 | 0.7563 | 8.01 | 8.7663 | T | T | 0.86 | 92.86 | 28 | 306.92714975764 | 5.994713468416 | 0.46712658039428 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.41 | 21.68 | 27.045 | 19.56432734977 | 0.7291 | 0.7391 | 8.01 | 8.7491 | T | T | 0.41 | 93.41 | 28 | 306.95149273201 | 6.0052994843096 | 0.44503789146244 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.8 | 20.77 | 26.785 | 18.934785538757 | 0.5243 | 0.5343 | 8.01 | 8.5443 | T | T | 0.8 | 93.8 | 28 | 306.48588337266 | 5.8032444723177 | 0.46417405539258 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.46 | 21.05 | 26.755 | 18.712034622618 | 0.5146 | 0.5246 | 8.01 | 8.5346 | T | T | 0.46 | 93.46 | 28 | 306.3209583067 | 5.7318883774686 | 0.44748505200751 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 31.97 | 21.26 | 26.615 | 18.397627964462 | 0.3709 | 0.3809 | 8.01 | 8.3909 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 91.97 | 28 | 306.08801234869 | 5.6312933755728 | 0.42360335557065 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 31.48 | 21.01 | 26.245 | 18.313204417085 | 0.3452 | 0.3552 | 8.01 | 8.3652 | T | T | -0.52 | 95.48 | 28 | 306.02543069902 | 5.6043062692175 | 0.39999906895575 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 30.83 | 21.42 | 26.125 | 21.05278639172 | 0.3701 | 0.4001 | 8.03 | 8.4301 | T | T | -1.17 | 101.83 | 28 | 308.04940093959 | 6.4852982360784 | 0.36925581022648 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 30.31 | 22.76 | 26.535 | 21.209867809998 | 0.4171 | 0.4471 | 8.03 | 8.4771 | T | T | -1.69 | 100.31 | 28 | 308.16502443563 | 6.5361394319446 | 0.34523916884876 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 29.87 | 22.22 | 26.045 | 21.008006168644 | 0.3603 | 0.4003 | 8.03 | 8.4303 | T | T | -2.13 | 99.87 | 28 | 308.0164309454 | 6.4708110813449 | 0.32538851777946 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.36 | 24.26 | 28.81 | 20.466308262468 | 0.5794 | 0.6094 | 8.03 | 8.6394 | T | T | 1.36 | 104.36 | 28 | 307.61730194617 | 6.2957905284991 | 0.49178590094012 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.14 | 25.62 | 29.38 | 20.221044658326 | 0.6689 | 0.6989 | 8.04 | 8.7389 | T | T | 1.14 | 105.14 | 28 | 307.43640832332 | 6.2166853423011 | 0.48092633958192 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.5 | 25.63 | 29.565 | 19.418881718578 | 0.6673 | 0.7073 | 8.06 | 8.7673 | T | T | 1.5 | 101.5 | 28 | 306.84398721446 | 5.9585670937745 | 0.49870021123623 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.21 | 26.5 | 29.355 | 17.520957212455 | 0.6791 | 0.7091 | 8.08 | 8.7891 | T | T | 0.21 | 102.21 | 28 | 305.43749784491 | 5.3515573308198 | 0.43527109247607 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.24 | 27.2 | 30.22 | 16.411156312487 | 0.6164 | 0.6564 | 8.08 | 8.7364 | T | T | 1.24 | 104.24 | 28 | 304.61191389849 | 4.9990337336339 | 0.48586123433342 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.92 | 29.64 | 32.78 | 16.200981489789 | 0.4993 | 0.5293 | 8.04 | 8.5693 | T | T | 3.92 | 106.92 | 28 | 304.45530199944 | 4.9324747121612 | 0.61652110808505 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.95 | 28.75 | 32.35 | 14.695615522214 | 0.2452 | 0.3052 | 8 | 8.3052 | T | T | 3.95 | 104.95 | 28 | 303.33113034027 | 4.4576376673991 | 0.61793843553999 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 10:16:43 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 35.95 | 28.75 | 32.35 | 14.695615522214 | 0.2452 | 0.3052 | 8 | 8.3052 | T | T | 3.95 | 104.95 | 28 | 303.33113034027 | 4.4576376673991 | 0.61793843553999 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.35 | 28.76 | 32.555 | 28.516607583333 | 0.2452 | 0.2952 | 8.18 | 8.4752 | T | T | 4.35 | 106.35 | 28 | 313.49265930738 | 8.9397471457241 | 0.63667843077009 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.24 | 28.88 | 30.56 | 28.558208916667 | 0.1773 | 0.2273 | 8.13 | 8.3573 | T | T | 0.24 | 101.24 | 28 | 313.52271030008 | 8.9536470608693 | 0.43673374739877 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 34.24 | 26.01 | 30.125 | 19.206424 | 0.2787 | 0.3587 | 8.04 | 8.3987 | T | T | 2.24 | 103.24 | 28 | 306.68687860203 | 5.8903582256671 | 0.53520451881838 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 34.53 | 26.25 | 30.39 | 19.205986666667 | 0.2748 | 0.3348 | 8.06 | 8.3948 | T | T | 2.53 | 107.53 | 28 | 306.68655511455 | 5.890217888376 | 0.54944674581313 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 34.72 | 26 | 30.36 | 19.195272 | 0.2734 | 0.3634 | 7.97 | 8.3334 | T | T | 2.72 | 107.72 | 28 | 306.67862955902 | 5.8867797109727 | 0.55874461016212 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 41.96 | 32.29 | 37.125 | 18.716665333333 | 0.2373 | 0.3373 | 7.94 | 8.2773 | T | T | 9.96 | 114.96 | 28 | 306.32438784074 | 5.7333710506534 | 0.85183855105107 | 94 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 41.91 | 32.27 | 37.09 | 18.2512975 | 0.2373 | 0.3573 | 8.1 | 8.4573 | T | T | 9.91 | 107.91 | 28 | 305.97953169136 | 5.5845234618096 | 0.85040117786439 | 94 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 40.13 | 29.4 | 34.765 | 18.279232166667 | 0.0803 | 0.2003 | 8.28 | 8.4803 | T | T | 8.13 | 107.13 | 28 | 306.00024389702 | 5.5934495012502 | 0.79322104482961 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 32.22 | 22.2 | 27.21 | 20.718574303793 | 1.0123 | 1.0523 | 8.87 | 9.9223 | T | T | 0.22 | 100.22 | 28 | 307.80324267496 | 6.3772443543094 | 0.43575854675353 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 31.96 | 21.8 | 26.88 | 20.565957318034 | 1.0123 | 1.0523 | 8.77 | 9.8223 | T | T | -0.039999999999999 | 102.96 | 28 | 307.69076569626 | 6.3279551544626 | 0.42311857658528 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 33.53 | 24.24 | 28.885 | 19.252709333333 | 1.0897 | 1.1197 | 8.66 | 9.7797 | T | T | 1.53 | 106.53 | 28 | 306.72111298645 | 5.9052124347247 | 0.50018197074255 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 42.54 | 31.46 | 37 | 18.926404 | 0.2498 | 0.2798 | 8.77 | 9.0498 | T | T | 10.54 | 113.54 | 28 | 306.47967935989 | 5.8005582293557 | 0.86783818276362 | 94 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 42.55 | 31.46 | 37.005 | 18.992000583333 | 0.2498 | 0.2798 | 8.99 | 9.2698 | T | T | 10.55 | 114.55 | 28 | 306.52823040556 | 5.8215843306706 | 0.86810319994472 | 94 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-11-28 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 37.02 | 29.06 | 33.04 | 19.374448583333 | 0.1764 | 0.2064 | 8.99 | 9.1964 | T | T | 5.02 | 104.02 | 28 | 306.81113673154 | 5.9442965933994 | 0.66732814295457 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.27 | 27.26 | 31.765 | 22.698061333333 | 0.1114 | 0.3114 | 7.85 | 8.1614 | T | T | 4.27 | 110.27 | 28 | 309.2581586579 | 7.0195606530508 | 0.63295486553182 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 37.07 | 26.25 | 31.66 | 22.483166666667 | 0.0767 | 0.4067 | 8.34 | 8.7467 | T | T | 5.07 | 113.07 | 28 | 309.10056556771 | 6.9495595324197 | 0.66957424672712 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 40.07 | 30.8 | 35.435 | 22.179657333333 | 0.022 | 0.362 | 7.81 | 8.172 | T | T | 8.07 | 120.07 | 28 | 308.87784028527 | 6.8508046553874 | 0.79109238233588 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 41.17 | 34.87 | 38.02 | 22.082678666667 | 1.0442 | 2.0442 | 7.81 | 9.8542 | T | T | 9.17 | 112.17 | 28 | 308.80663789757 | 6.8192777548258 | 0.82804574176332 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.02 | 35.59 | 35.805 | 21.639162916667 | 0.3781 | 1.3881 | 7.57 | 8.9581 | T | T | 4.02 | 104.02 | 28 | 308.48078204218 | 6.6752658992715 | 0.62123936463439 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-27 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 65 | 145 | 36.25 | 35.86 | 36.055 | 22.971771893113 | 0.1359 | 1.1459 | 7.63 | 8.7759 | T | T | 4.25 | 105.25 | 28 | 309.45875989107 | 7.1088160425433 | 0.6320220016333 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |