Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 29, 2021

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DAY 90 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/30/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 16.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 12.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.043 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -148 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.98 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.23 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 106 in SWE DAY: 3 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 170 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-30 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2022	90	170	16.23992	9.64994	12.94493	106.19893458333	0.019999999999982	0.24999999999998	9.98	10.23	T	T	-15.76008	-147.76008	3	341.15216969193	36.229996952075	0.042684422775006	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-30 03:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	90	170	16.23992	9.64994	12.94493	106.19893458333	0.019999999999982	0.24999999999998	9.98	10.23	T	T	-15.76008	-147.76008	3	341.15216969193	36.229996952075	0.042684422775006	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-29 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.27	14.79	18.03	109.12685813376	0.0192	0.2492	9.98	10.2292	T	T	-10.73	-142.73	3	343.0545017409	37.436459943627	0.11591828215476	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-29 07:00:10	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.2	12.6	16.9	109.44922321118	0.0193	0.2493	9.98	10.2293	T	T	-10.8	-142.8	3	343.26308568771	37.569878085594	0.1145007995905	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-29 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	90	170	17.23	12.28	14.755	109.52537683588	0.0306	0.2606	9.98	10.2406	T	T	-14.77	-146.77	3	343.31233539535	37.601412906583	0.052943435883114	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-28 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.77	6.64	13.705	108.18460453156	0.0277	0.0877	9.98	10.0677	T	T	-11.23	-139.23	3	342.44384339531	37.04715177199	0.10606290352897	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-12-28 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.44	10.69	15.565	108.30657647234	0.0433	0.1033	9.98	10.0833	T	T	-11.56	-139.56	3	342.52297368439	37.097490642881	0.099897952218174	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-28 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.65	10.83	15.74	108.36799605839	0.05	0.11	9.98	10.09	T	T	-11.35	-139.35	3	342.56281086105	37.122845337143	0.10379015236881	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-28 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	15.99	10.61	13.3	108.53224346047	0.0509	0.1109	9.98	10.0909	T	T	-16.01	-144.01	3	342.66931235764	37.190669235231	0.040365767715838	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-28 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.81	10.69	15.75	108.87033612084	0.0395	0.1095	9.98	10.0895	T	T	-11.19	-139.19	3	342.88839899363	37.330375250372	0.10682839403413	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-28 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.71	10.37	15.54	109.06741257599	0.0395	0.1395	9.98	10.1195	T	T	-11.29	-139.29	3	343.01601927642	37.411869694594	0.10492208726759	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.07	9.71	14.89	111.57988395807	0.0123	0.1023	9.98	10.0823	T	T	-11.93	-137.93	3	344.63742743841	38.454604161184	0.093300732139547	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.76	9.95	14.855	111.66609090058	0.0076	0.1176	9.98	10.0976	T	T	-12.24	-138.24	3	344.69287716716	38.490506154532	0.088025031596633	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.96	9.48	14.72	111.68494132504	0.0051	0.1151	9.98	10.0951	T	T	-12.04	-138.04	3	344.70500045375	38.498357750124	0.091402684770591	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.01	10.43	15.22	112.02389903507	0.0099	0.1399	9.98	10.1199	T	T	-11.99	-137.99	3	344.92289553061	38.639607623806	0.092261867010238	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 07:00:09	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.28	9.97	15.125	111.5869264017	0.0135	0.1135	9.98	10.0935	T	T	-11.72	-136.72	3	344.64195770987	38.457536769907	0.097004585164984	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-27 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.56	9.57	14.565	111.89419631047	0.0137	0.1537	9.98	10.1337	T	T	-12.44	-142.44	3	344.83953977873	38.585543159614	0.084741023952235	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.25	11.42	15.835	109.21527902089	0.0107	0.1607	9.91	10.0707	T	T	-11.75	-129.75	3	343.11173082334	37.473043417211	0.096468974500677	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.21	11.82	16.515	109.85540698145	0.0327	0.2427	9.91	10.1527	T	T	-10.79	-127.79	3	343.52566084417	37.738151280607	0.11470254062875	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.86	9.43	14.645	110.23050465163	0.0295	0.2795	9.91	10.1895	T	T	-12.14	-129.14	3	343.76790009317	37.8937091103	0.089702078947677	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	22.98	7.88	15.43	111.55756242557	0.0211	0.2411	9.91	10.1511	T	T	-9.02	-126.02	3	344.62306788113	38.44530940844	0.15445041080665	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.99	6.78	14.385	112.43945245819	0.004	0.194	10.03	10.224	T	T	-10.01	-131.01	3	345.18977343466	38.812949119159	0.13122164292852	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-26 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.54	7.99	14.765	113.03229169861	0.0148	0.1648	10.12	10.2848	T	T	-10.46	-133.46	3	345.5700210806	39.060571425077	0.1215019174014	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.76	7.38	14.57	104.36888076493	0.0059	0.1459	9.64	9.7859	T	T	-10.24	-135.24	3	339.95594124761	35.480821097403	0.12618886279654	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.71	5.17	13.44	103.87601869649	0.006	0.126	9.6	9.726	T	T	-10.29	-133.29	3	339.63282670162	35.279705856399	0.12511277075057	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	21.72	7.13	14.425	104.03225627005	0.0078	0.1178	9.62	9.7378	T	T	-10.28	-134.28	3	339.73529800042	35.34342958556	0.12532747639484	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	22.4	11.08	16.74	107.22909381696	0.0259	0.1859	9.6	9.7859	T	T	-9.6	-132.6	3	341.82309904695	36.653381156509	0.14053216897076	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	90	170	22.3	12.1	17.2	107.26683841183	0.0259	0.1859	9.69	9.8759	T	T	-9.7	-130.7	3	341.84764828811	36.668916450385	0.13822110240211	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	90	170	18.49	12.12	15.305	108.8728862355	0.0263	0.2063	9.88	10.0863	T	T	-13.51	-137.51	3	342.89005077269	37.331429489061	0.068710153185695	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.89	9.22	14.555	102.45567759794	0.0249	0.2249	9.59	9.8149	T	T	-12.11	-136.11	3	338.69940217103	34.701676751448	0.090209780475268	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.66	9.07	14.865	102.92218454779	0.0002	0.1902	9.68	9.8702	T	T	-11.34	-135.34	3	339.00635423306	34.891274553248	0.10397819248899	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.61	6.72	13.665	103.06364072359	0.0002	0.1902	9.63	9.8202	T	T	-11.39	-136.39	3	339.09935767093	34.948814368596	0.10304045075017	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.83	12.23	16.53	104.74435400257	0.086	0.196	9.54	9.736	T	T	-11.17	-132.17	3	340.2018257495	35.634220468626	0.10721262589868	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.6	10.78	15.19	104.17046552511	0.0841	0.1641	9.56	9.7241	T	T	-12.4	-141.4	3	339.82591120245	35.399823367455	0.085390391058586	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-24 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	19.63	9.69	14.66	107.26936344594	0.0843	0.1843	10.17	10.3543	T	T	-12.37	-133.37	3	341.84929049678	36.669955786036	0.085879848918904	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	15.84	3.55	9.695	98.672852834895	0.004	0.054	10	10.054	T	T	-16.16	-143.16	3	336.19690242813	33.173507476838	0.039023806798355	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-12-23 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	16.7	4.57	10.635	100.30642503581	0.004	0.074	10.12	10.194	T	T	-15.3	-143.3	3	337.28053043793	33.831404242412	0.047232728491526	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-12-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	16.67	4.59	10.63	99.146969890697	0.004	0.104	9.85	9.954	T	T	-15.33	-140.33	3	336.51187061007	33.364132303239	0.046924805084343	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-23 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	16.47	3.67	10.07	104.24564693883	0.0042	0.2942	9.84	10.1342	T	T	-15.53	-137.53	3	339.87518852937	35.430508906702	0.044912786247595	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-23 07:00:10	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.24	10.01	15.125	105.96777425165	0.0082	0.2582	10.14	10.3982	T	T	-11.76	-129.76	3	341.00137664683	36.135156900014	0.096290919778924	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-23 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	90	170	20.09	9.14	14.615	106.36420080943	0.0082	0.2382	10.39	10.6282	T	T	-11.91	-127.91	3	341.25992370629	36.297839053307	0.09364892751767	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-12-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	14.96	5.42	10.19	121.71415314282	0.1013	1.8513	10.62	12.4713	T	T	-17.04	-124.04	3	351.07347966861	42.730611268767	0.031862974063427	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-22 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	90	170	14.96	6.98	10.97	122.62353934715	0.1013	1.8513	10.75	12.6013	T	T	-17.04	-123.04	3	351.64295172691	43.119703327232	0.031862974063427	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-22 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	17.34	11.96	14.65	119.46410383793	0.0854	1.5954	10.48	12.0754	T	T	-14.66	-121.66	3	349.65879649861	41.771674772755	0.054194441385427	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-22 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	15.68	13.86	14.77	120.12390291328	0.2441	1.6441	10.33	11.9741	T	T	-16.32	-117.32	3	350.07447295139	42.052312001231	0.037632530979352	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-22 07:00:13	FORECAST	2022	90	170	16.98	14.82	15.9	124.87428441699	0.156	1.666	10.28	11.946	T	T	-15.02	-121.02	3	353.0467602591	44.086461553092	0.050185140604344	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-22 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	90	170	16.9	14.91	15.905	125.53975957416	0.049	1.559	10.64	12.199	T	T	-15.1	-121.1	3	353.46028778685	44.373319547775	0.049327010070125	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L