MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 28, 2021

[ Monday, December 27, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 29, 2021 ]

DAY 89 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/29/2021 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 18.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 9.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 13.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.043
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -134

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 109 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-29 07:00:09OBSERVATION20228916918.330089.6000813.96508109.319007083330.190000000000050.5300000000000511.8212.35TT-13.66992-133.669924344.14495446972 37.6215847153690.04344936025278116 1113124.5WETL
2021-12-29 03:00:05OBSERVATION20228916918.330089.6000813.96508109.319007083330.190000000000050.5300000000000511.8212.35TT-13.66992-133.669924344.14495446972 37.6215847153690.04344936025278116 1113124.5WETL
2021-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20228916921.7914.6918.24108.152097805720.02380.363811.8212.1838TT-10.21-130.214343.3917215921737.1385350593110.095825846220133161112123WETL
2021-12-28 07:00:08FORECAST20228916922.2711.0716.67108.570626472850.03180.371811.8212.1918TT-9.73-129.734343.6621361196537.3116134135070.10575811945592161112123WETL
2021-12-28 03:00:07FORECAST20228916922.1310.0116.07108.762256441170.05620.396211.8212.2162TT-9.87-129.874343.7858537762837.3909251892610.10278752390806161112123WETL
2021-12-27 23:00:01FORECAST20228916921.878.915.385111.48428041190.06420.394211.8212.2142TT-10.13-128.134345.5367242792438.5219130621570.097431936987529161112123WETL
2021-12-27 19:00:01FORECAST20228916921.939.9215.925111.601762664880.0830.41311.8212.233TT-10.07-128.074345.612019488238.5709105730510.098649357258816161112123WETL
2021-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST20228916922.299.0815.685111.642424698090.08350.413511.8212.2335TT-9.71-127.714345.6380748399538.5878727431110.10618748943719161112123WETL
2021-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20228916922.2111.3816.795111.942538830880.0960.42611.8212.246TT-9.79-127.794345.8302982826738.7131215944040.10447751887357161112123WETL
2021-12-27 07:00:08FORECAST20228916922.011116.505111.477426280620.08390.403911.8212.2239TT-9.99-126.994345.532330724238.5190549258780.10028979620436161112123WETL
2021-12-27 03:00:09FORECAST20228916921.79.0515.375111.781452559460.11720.437211.8212.2572TT-10.3-132.34345.7271405604438.6458819610730.094042292909289161112123WETL
2021-12-26 23:00:02FORECAST20228916922.4611.3316.895109.121381318050.11550.375511.8212.1955TT-9.54-119.544344.0175452155537.5396697315660.10988788163708161112123WETL
2021-12-26 19:00:02FORECAST20228916923.1511.9517.55109.563704696230.15520.435211.8212.2552TT-8.85-118.854344.3026223317537.7230708392940.12585204668679161112123WETL
2021-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST20228916923.2112.0517.63109.979326795190.19760.477611.8212.2976TT-8.79-118.794344.570198782337.8955984957630.12731278339023161112123WETL
2021-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20228916922.6512.2417.445111.375696045090.16660.446611.8212.2666TT-9.35-119.354345.4671118054638.4766400380210.11413174301352161112123WETL
2021-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20228916921.9111.816.855112.401035370480.14110.541111.8212.3611TT-10.09-123.094346.1236830526938.9046603413660.098242323513129161113124.5WETL
2021-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST20228916921.2511.1716.21112.882699547650.11650.586511.8212.4065TT-10.75-124.754346.4315246500739.1061257109080.085489608069249161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST20228916920.157.5313.84104.304106236550.11310.683111.2411.9231TT-11.85-126.854340.8919873148835.5564340600810.067043184550351161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 19:00:03FORECAST20228916919.896.1513.02103.8011269680.10330.623311.2411.8633TT-12.11-125.114340.5634324404135.3508680914030.063168046917804161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20228916919.277.513.385103.953453866610.0890.62911.2411.869TT-12.73-125.734340.6629793556435.4130933085090.054629303803485161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20228916919.959.1514.55106.959419831930.11010.660111.2411.9001TT-12.05-125.054342.619544664336.6463877203730.064046508648717161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 07:00:08FORECAST20228916920.099.7614.925107.000091258970.12230.622311.3711.9923TT-11.91-122.914342.6459151580236.6631441914220.066133048148414161113124.5WETL
2021-12-25 03:00:07FORECAST20228916920.171015.085108.597015992230.10950.679511.5212.1995TT-11.83-125.834343.6791769547237.322533075950.067348699243734161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20228916920.819.2515.03102.168900357470.12840.688411.2411.9284TT-11.19-126.194339.4943375679234.6857631469010.077701858319313161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST20228916920.658.4814.565102.919730743880.1260.63611.3712.006TT-11.35-126.354339.9866757587334.9913371255940.075007126479526161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20228916920.87.1513.975103.061137343440.09290.672911.2911.9629TT-11.2-127.24340.0792945659135.0489588849160.07753132037928161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20228916919.187.2213.2103.769888884720.03530.635311.1511.7853TT-12.82-122.824340.5430133294835.3381106536690.053469233895923161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 07:00:05FORECAST20228916916.475.3710.92103.220588943560.03460.604611.1811.7846TT-15.53-130.534340.1836926305335.1139611023180.02675576658426161113124.5WETL
2021-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20228916919.453.3411.395106.317822261270.03810.708111.712.4081TT-12.55-122.554342.2031857023836.3822974747470.057008876969114161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20228916916.23.429.8198.6117750071190.01090.650911.5412.1909TT-15.8-128.84337.1490379313333.2468650723510.024849380736349161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20228916916.61.519.055100.246461199180.01160.691611.6412.3316TT-15.4-130.44338.2294582040833.9063062582770.027716226004798161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20228916916.711.59.10599.085477858360.0130.77311.3212.093TT-15.29-127.294337.462586186533.4376416116080.028551145486905161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST20228916919.137.9513.54104.178330051290.17860.938611.3312.2686TT-12.87-123.874340.8098674600635.505002856990.052833207705559161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 07:00:10FORECAST20228916922.1911.1416.665105.845581539430.17170.931711.612.5317TT-9.81-119.814341.896295544836.1882122281150.10405315074991161113124.5WETL
2021-12-23 03:00:09FORECAST20228916922.1711.2416.705106.234687698070.17170.891711.8712.7617TT-9.83-117.834342.1491866041636.3481119850410.10363002977878161113124.5WETL
2021-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20228916923.3715.319.335120.250986859951.38762.587611.9214.5076TT-8.63-108.634351.0941030488842.2194123723360.13126541715514161115127.5WETL
2021-12-22 19:00:03FORECAST20228916923.0815.2519.165121.097187764471.38762.577612.0614.6376TT-8.92-107.924351.6240056997142.5806782407130.12416263314021161115127.5WETL
2021-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20228916923.7214.3119.015118.109935196461.18232.282311.8514.1323TT-8.28-109.284349.7482493996341.3087430716650.1402040182356161115127.5WETL
2021-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST20228916927.8312.9120.37116.158713410621.33392.103911.7713.8739TT-4.17-103.174348.5153309687440.4830924492050.274945319993561621151210WETL
2021-12-22 07:00:12FORECAST20228916927.0213.6920.355122.27448186851.39662.066611.8613.9266TT-4.98-107.984352.3593514507943.0845571301660.24422195902357161115127.5WETL
2021-12-22 03:00:04FORECAST20228916927.0713.5420.305124.703533976611.39662.066612.2214.2866TT-4.93-107.934353.8696224468644.1287924860940.2460634240878161115127.5WETL
2021-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST2022891699.661.425.54119.271303302660.08431.254312.4613.7143TT-22.34-124.344350.4791874244541.8021094645720.0031350773580414161114126WETL
2021-12-21 19:00:03FORECAST2022891699.712.265.985117.515020046460.08061.160612.3713.5306TT-22.29-119.294349.3729876856941.0565736515770.003191652251434161114126WETL
2021-12-21 15:00:04FORECAST20228916913.396.119.75119.818516922980.07771.207712.5413.7477TT-18.61-116.614350.822844318942.0350729089910.010908565161479161114126WETL
2021-12-21 11:00:03FORECAST20228916916.041113.52119.589515211340.09440.894412.7513.6444TT-15.96-117.964350.6790865410141.9375419541940.023774263847305161113124.5WETL
2021-12-21 07:00:06FORECAST20228916913.4111.4912.45118.673631595820.05310.853112.8313.6831TT-18.59-123.594350.1032960737441.5480295787360.010976519915853161113124.5WETL
2021-12-21 03:00:09FORECAST20228916910.554.457.5120.341945114840.01860.748613.1513.8986TT-21.45-127.454351.1511170081142.2582084500060.0042898019997173161113124.5WETL