Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 2, 2021
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Friday, December 3, 2021 ]
DAY 63
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2021 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.78°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.608
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 92
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.40 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.05 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 18 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 307.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.53 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-12-03 07:00:13 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.69008 | 22.85996 | 29.77502 | 17.960922083333 | 0.049999999999955 | 0.39999999999995 | 8.65 | 9.05 | T | T | 4.69008 | 91.69008 | 30 | 307.97596223666 | 5.5315322612722 | 0.60849990744456 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-03 03:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.69008 | 22.85996 | 29.77502 | 17.960922083333 | 0.049999999999955 | 0.39999999999995 | 8.65 | 9.05 | T | T | 4.69008 | 91.69008 | 30 | 307.97596223666 | 5.5315322612722 | 0.60849990744456 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-02 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 32.93 | 28.26 | 30.595 | 17.022251561971 | 0.0088 | 0.3588 | 8.65 | 9.0088 | T | T | 0.93 | 87.93 | 30 | 307.28389394677 | 5.2306637437038 | 0.43047560178378 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-02 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 31.67 | 28.83 | 30.25 | 17.277245246058 | 0.0135 | 0.3635 | 8.65 | 9.0135 | T | T | -0.33 | 86.67 | 30 | 307.4720603937 | 5.3122701937327 | 0.37215494245836 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-02 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 35.62 | 28.65 | 32.135 | 17.212060914864 | 0.0142 | 0.3642 | 8.65 | 9.0142 | T | T | 3.62 | 90.62 | 30 | 307.42397078121 | 5.2914001117755 | 0.55850591539641 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.66 | 28.58 | 33.62 | 19.855892084323 | 0.029 | 0.399 | 8.65 | 9.049 | T | T | 6.66 | 96.66 | 30 | 309.36807854485 | 6.1427791819209 | 0.69549083443435 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.24 | 29.31 | 33.775 | 19.869606783434 | 0.0309 | 0.4009 | 8.65 | 9.0509 | T | T | 6.24 | 96.24 | 30 | 309.37812947615 | 6.1472217800852 | 0.6776522056166 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.11 | 29.52 | 33.815 | 19.864727301095 | 0.0418 | 0.4118 | 8.65 | 9.0618 | T | T | 6.11 | 96.11 | 30 | 309.37455354706 | 6.1456411401105 | 0.67204423143747 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.45 | 28.31 | 33.38 | 19.137066877716 | 0.0285 | 0.3985 | 8.65 | 9.0485 | T | T | 6.45 | 96.45 | 30 | 308.84079112057 | 5.9103068742411 | 0.68662604976164 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.7 | 28.71 | 33.705 | 18.447795592259 | 0.0334 | 0.4134 | 8.65 | 9.0634 | T | T | 6.7 | 95.7 | 30 | 308.33427772132 | 5.6880877294897 | 0.69716664835912 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-01 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.71 | 28.83 | 33.77 | 18.374352561995 | 0.035 | 0.435 | 8.65 | 9.085 | T | T | 6.71 | 91.71 | 30 | 308.28025555906 | 5.6644501035441 | 0.69758495633698 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.81 | 28.73 | 33.77 | 15.508121394466 | 0.0316 | 0.4516 | 8.65 | 9.1016 | T | T | 6.81 | 94.81 | 30 | 306.1640641978 | 4.7480294742025 | 0.70175371470128 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.19 | 29.16 | 33.675 | 15.497534212191 | 0.0317 | 0.4517 | 8.65 | 9.1017 | T | T | 6.19 | 95.19 | 30 | 306.15621889203 | 4.7446664765543 | 0.67549998114155 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.3 | 29.3 | 33.8 | 15.493426790654 | 0.0272 | 0.4072 | 8.65 | 9.0572 | T | T | 6.3 | 95.3 | 30 | 306.15317515684 | 4.7433618060189 | 0.68022703672122 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.16 | 28.85 | 33.505 | 14.91019854789 | 0.0604 | 0.4004 | 8.65 | 9.0504 | T | T | 6.16 | 95.16 | 30 | 305.72066120343 | 4.5583557587355 | 0.67420582343099 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 10:16:42 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.16 | 28.85 | 33.505 | 14.91019854789 | 0.0604 | 0.4004 | 8.65 | 9.0504 | T | T | 6.16 | 95.16 | 30 | 305.72066120343 | 4.5583557587355 | 0.67420582343099 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-30 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.68 | 28.78 | 33.73 | 28.823560916667 | 0.0509 | 0.5709 | 8.65 | 9.2209 | T | T | 6.68 | 95.68 | 30 | 315.86593901339 | 9.1043811346526 | 0.69632925691757 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-30 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.38 | 28.23 | 33.305 | 28.726964916667 | 0.051 | 0.521 | 8.65 | 9.171 | T | T | 6.38 | 95.38 | 30 | 315.79673238381 | 9.0718816519876 | 0.68364667282301 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.55 | 26.17 | 32.36 | 19.468824 | 0.0775 | 0.4275 | 8.68 | 9.1075 | T | T | 6.55 | 94.55 | 30 | 309.08426804797 | 6.0175072157948 | 0.69086123998056 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.91 | 27.16 | 33.035 | 19.483912 | 0.0554 | 0.4254 | 8.68 | 9.1054 | T | T | 6.91 | 97.91 | 30 | 309.09533627136 | 6.0223863315216 | 0.70589613228715 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.95 | 27.92 | 33.435 | 19.508566666667 | 0.093 | 0.373 | 8.68 | 9.053 | T | T | 6.95 | 97.95 | 30 | 309.11342147718 | 6.030359790449 | 0.70754562875682 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.02 | 26.17 | 32.595 | 19.282137333333 | 0.1023 | 0.3523 | 8.68 | 9.0323 | T | T | 7.02 | 97.02 | 30 | 308.94728373509 | 5.9571639537404 | 0.71042186324719 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.08 | 28.33 | 33.705 | 18.6832735 | 0.1161 | 0.4761 | 8.73 | 9.2061 | T | T | 7.08 | 97.08 | 30 | 308.5074192163 | 5.7639284899973 | 0.71287659736944 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-29 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.28 | 28.96 | 33.62 | 18.6158695 | 0.1227 | 0.5427 | 8.85 | 9.3927 | T | T | 6.28 | 93.28 | 30 | 308.4578691823 | 5.7422114389457 | 0.67936971558476 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 40.49 | 27.71 | 34.1 | 19.938612 | 0.0294 | 0.3994 | 9.49 | 9.8894 | T | T | 8.49 | 94.49 | 30 | 309.42869521057 | 6.1695786954698 | 0.76754820444359 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 40.51 | 27.73 | 34.12 | 19.767450666667 | 0.0319 | 0.5019 | 9.29 | 9.7919 | T | T | 8.51 | 96.51 | 30 | 309.3032551068 | 6.1141368363631 | 0.76827978774131 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 40.58 | 27.75 | 34.165 | 19.543864 | 0.0248 | 0.3248 | 9.35 | 9.6748 | T | T | 8.58 | 98.58 | 30 | 309.13931154273 | 6.0417766618448 | 0.77083021668717 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.29 | 28.33 | 33.31 | 19.629526666667 | 0.0298 | 0.2798 | 9.51 | 9.7898 | T | T | 6.29 | 93.29 | 30 | 309.20213417484 | 6.0694915381752 | 0.67979849604147 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.14 | 29.07 | 34.105 | 19.70037125 | 0.0256 | 0.4856 | 9.52 | 10.0056 | T | T | 7.14 | 94.14 | 30 | 309.25407930829 | 6.0924201729503 | 0.7153214458774 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-28 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.08 | 28.51 | 33.295 | 19.785377916667 | 0.0269 | 0.4869 | 9.52 | 10.0069 | T | T | 6.08 | 91.08 | 30 | 309.31639612244 | 6.1199417931038 | 0.67074450053185 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.52 | 29.32 | 33.92 | 23.105 | 0.1976 | 0.5576 | 8.48 | 9.0376 | T | T | 6.52 | 95.52 | 30 | 311.73945713611 | 7.2027401571299 | 0.68959330740671 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 40.9 | 29.35 | 35.125 | 22.901202666667 | 0.3252 | 0.7652 | 8.89 | 9.6552 | T | T | 8.9 | 97.9 | 30 | 311.59128915112 | 7.1358152620178 | 0.78228703755177 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 41.31 | 30.05 | 35.68 | 22.780498666667 | 0.3427 | 0.5327 | 8.61 | 9.1427 | T | T | 9.31 | 100.31 | 30 | 311.50349683292 | 7.0962049942642 | 0.79647273171376 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 38.62 | 29.49 | 34.055 | 22.634757333333 | 0.3385 | 0.6285 | 8.51 | 9.1385 | T | T | 6.62 | 95.62 | 30 | 311.39745809434 | 7.0484058981823 | 0.69381091052515 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.67 | 27.37 | 33.52 | 22.07731625 | 0.3401 | 0.6401 | 8.26 | 8.9001 | T | T | 7.67 | 93.67 | 30 | 310.99151172252 | 6.8658579553637 | 0.73647524877612 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-27 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.71 | 27.38 | 33.545 | 22.523918179916 | 0.3401 | 0.6701 | 8.29 | 8.9601 | T | T | 7.71 | 93.71 | 30 | 311.31678726323 | 7.0120738443512 | 0.73803863276437 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.22 | 24.23 | 30.225 | 26.52180223525 | 0.021 | 0.181 | 7.2 | 7.381 | T | T | 4.22 | 96.22 | 30 | 314.21220663323 | 8.3334740042281 | 0.58670652217512 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.11 | 24.15 | 30.13 | 27.138542564585 | 0.0072 | 0.1672 | 7.67 | 7.8372 | T | T | 4.11 | 93.11 | 30 | 314.65626145784 | 8.5393123447869 | 0.58156531057067 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.35 | 24.11 | 30.23 | 26.556069576017 | 0.0072 | 0.1672 | 7.46 | 7.6272 | T | T | 4.35 | 99.35 | 30 | 314.23689747345 | 8.3448969126569 | 0.5927633234008 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 33.4 | 24.54 | 28.97 | 27.397458576287 | 0.067 | 0.497 | 7.5 | 7.997 | T | T | 1.4 | 93.4 | 30 | 314.8424745213 | 8.625883653753 | 0.45269994746933 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 33.41 | 24.5 | 28.955 | 26.576731380577 | 0.067 | 0.497 | 8.22 | 8.717 | T | T | 1.41 | 96.41 | 30 | 314.25178400145 | 8.3517852492734 | 0.45317467411231 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-26 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 33.77 | 24.81 | 29.29 | 27.789030582193 | 0.068 | 0.498 | 8.47 | 8.968 | T | T | 1.77 | 94.77 | 30 | 315.12386156905 | 8.756986626321 | 0.47030416403987 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 40.39 | 25.82 | 33.105 | 29.653203668151 | 0.5015 | 0.8115 | 8.85 | 9.6615 | T | T | 8.39 | 110.39 | 30 | 316.45964152773 | 9.3840422029718 | 0.7638711185543 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.41 | 28.51 | 33.96 | 29.527272967846 | 0.5342 | 0.8742 | 8.56 | 9.4342 | T | T | 7.41 | 107.41 | 30 | 316.36960449585 | 9.3415316706783 | 0.72619866304513 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 39.4 | 29.94 | 34.67 | 27.486350271935 | 0.406 | 0.746 | 8.5 | 9.246 | T | T | 7.4 | 107.4 | 30 | 314.90637742393 | 8.6556269927401 | 0.72579949195651 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 33.66 | 29.06 | 31.36 | 30.801020950671 | 0.4992 | 3.8192 | 8.16 | 11.9792 | T | T | 1.66 | 106.66 | 30 | 317.27897353714 | 9.7725163111248 | 0.46506283885358 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.2 | 35.1 | 35.65 | 28.793435240836 | 0.349 | 3.789 | 7.19 | 10.979 | T | T | 4.2 | 96.2 | 30 | 315.84435716228 | 9.0942440441356 | 0.58577283404897 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-25 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 63 | 143 | 36.25 | 35.23 | 35.74 | 28.611995255985 | 0.2357 | 3.6757 | 6.97 | 10.6457 | T | T | 4.25 | 91.25 | 30 | 315.71433972905 | 9.0332171905741 | 0.58810613398355 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |