Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 17, 2021

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DAY 78 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/18/2021 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.39°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.80°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.116 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -34 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.28 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.29 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 72 in SWE DAY: 15 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.31 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 23.77 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 158 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-18 07:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	78	158	25.39004	14.21006	19.80005	71.965079166667	0.27999999999997	0.82999999999997	8.46	9.29	T	T	-6.60996	-33.60996	15	330.31202495778	23.770931025789	0.11641867577438	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-18 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	78	158	25.39004	14.21006	19.80005	71.965079166667	0.27999999999997	0.82999999999997	8.46	9.29	T	T	-6.60996	-33.60996	15	330.31202495778	23.770931025789	0.11641867577438	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.17	19.72	24.945	74.246605552988	0.0775	0.6275	8.46	9.0875	T	T	-1.83	-28.83	15	331.85823335755	24.63934735161	0.27864598657804	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-17 07:00:11	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.89	17.43	23.66	74.12436240033	0.0321	0.5821	8.46	9.0421	T	T	-2.11	-29.11	15	331.77561519974	24.592655936658	0.26685161060235	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-17 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.07	17.94	24.005	74.101681633767	0.0252	0.5752	8.46	9.0352	T	T	-1.93	-28.93	15	331.7602835593	24.58399491104	0.27440474144986	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	27.39	17.29	22.34	74.084612330478	0.0221	0.4821	8.46	8.9421	T	T	-4.61	-26.61	15	331.74874454754	24.577477130927	0.17377714379646	16	1	2	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-12-16 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.91	16.32	23.115	74.06029168104	0.0162	0.4762	8.46	8.9362	T	T	-2.09	-24.09	15	331.73230269239	24.568191097421	0.26768563851372	16	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-12-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.84	16.91	23.375	74.053015470376	0.0141	0.4741	8.46	8.9341	T	T	-2.16	-24.16	15	331.72738344865	24.56541305847	0.26477229355673	16	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-12-16 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.75	17.69	23.72	74.658550922978	0.0167	0.4767	8.46	8.9367	T	T	-2.25	-24.25	15	332.13645824502	24.796826681263	0.26105036813674	16	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-12-16 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	28.89	19.09	23.99	75.072121025845	0.0175	0.5375	8.46	8.9975	T	T	-3.11	-28.11	15	332.41548777602	24.955135729187	0.22688697954287	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-16 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.12	20.52	24.82	75.052153825646	0.0172	0.5372	8.46	8.9972	T	T	-2.88	-26.88	15	332.40202293927	24.947487757594	0.2357691826718	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-15 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.32	21.82	25.57	74.165431718149	0.0435	0.4635	8.46	8.9235	T	T	-2.68	-23.68	15	331.80337480105	24.608340537659	0.24364588274188	16	1	2	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-12-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	28.88	21.14	25.01	74.034989921986	0.0199	0.4199	8.46	8.8799	T	T	-3.12	-24.12	15	331.71519648492	24.558531228731	0.2265051191321	16	1	2	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-12-15 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.18	21.18	25.18	74.033546296642	0.0187	0.4187	8.46	8.8787	T	T	-2.82	-22.82	15	331.71422043446	24.557980095789	0.23811736675542	16	1	2	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-12-15 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.61	22.16	25.885	75.219790727001	0.022	0.442	8.46	8.902	T	T	-2.39	-22.39	15	332.51504731061	25.011712272283	0.25531456764	16	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-12-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.38	21.99	25.685	74.82689286321	0.0228	0.4528	8.46	8.9128	T	T	-2.62	-22.62	15	332.25007139512	24.861240496076	0.24603626054002	16	1	2	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-12-15 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.24	21.17	25.205	75.134231121937	0.0243	0.5143	8.46	8.9743	T	T	-2.76	-24.76	15	332.45736721465	24.978928666496	0.24047828897674	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.39	21.04	25.215	73.157732422363	0.1406	0.6406	8.21	8.8506	T	T	-2.61	-22.61	15	331.12141314394	24.224091742099	0.24643587458536	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-14 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.79	20.63	25.21	73.608188895775	0.1751	0.7351	8.21	8.9451	T	T	-2.21	-22.21	15	331.42647582968	24.395702637932	0.26270123514379	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-14 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.05	22.59	26.32	74.831993274178	0.4549	0.9449	8.21	9.1549	T	T	-1.95	-21.95	15	332.2535128793	24.863192641106	0.27356032729419	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-14 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.4	19.04	24.22	78.726031895336	0.8974	1.4874	8.21	9.6974	T	T	-2.6	-22.6	15	334.86803334746	26.362831474041	0.24683583566012	16	1	2	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-12-14 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.13	19.16	24.645	78.426192739981	0.6966	1.4766	8.21	9.6866	T	T	-1.87	-19.87	15	334.6676341479	26.246708379516	0.2769456676828	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-14 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.06	19.26	24.16	79.5956624671	0.6925	1.6425	8.24	9.8825	T	T	-2.94	-20.94	15	335.44839336846	26.700237093687	0.23343380267185	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	29.45	18.98	24.215	77.867539467084	0.5111	1.5711	7.88	9.4511	T	T	-2.55	-20.55	15	334.29384773132	26.030639381822	0.24884083452994	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	31.96	19.28	25.62	77.909746700793	0.5098	1.6298	7.92	9.5498	T	T	-0.039999999999999	-18.04	15	334.32210647619	26.046950632035	0.35943356868154	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-13 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	32.77	20.52	26.645	78.719839863965	0.6526	1.8226	8.02	9.8426	T	T	0.77	-11.23	15	334.86389641137	26.360432301726	0.39847196591871	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.64	18.36	24.5	81.13851791248	0.5007	1.8507	8	9.8507	T	T	-1.36	-19.36	15	336.474889932	27.301073883847	0.29899590768179	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-13 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	30.42	16.06	23.24	79.984126359167	0.6725	1.6225	8.02	9.6425	T	T	-1.58	-19.58	15	335.70722620288	26.851249200297	0.28938649449404	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-13 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	78	158	31.06	16.89	23.975	80.301382920179	0.6776	1.6776	8.16	9.8376	T	T	-0.94	-19.94	15	335.91842433584	26.974714022535	0.31773133517285	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-12 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	31.75	16.02	23.885	69.754982110231	0.1809	1.2609	7.97	9.2309	T	T	-0.25	-9.25	15	328.80565649782	22.935832686748	0.34952936672713	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-12 19:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	32.88	17.69	25.285	67.200373712717	0.1809	1.1209	7.87	8.9909	T	T	0.88	-4.12	15	327.05390544495	21.978144670105	0.40386264799029	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	78	158	33.59	20.55	27.07	67.55311643906	0.1817	1.0317	7.91	8.9417	T	T	1.59	-1.41	15	327.29646579987	22.109896264271	0.43905387534237	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-12 11:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	34.78	20.92	27.85	68.284568997623	0.1153	0.7153	7.92	8.6353	T	T	2.78	-2.22	15	327.79875052515	22.383596397569	0.49898867647054	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-12 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	78	158	34.82	20.98	27.9	68.919904432638	0.1153	0.7853	7.89	8.6753	T	T	2.82	-11.18	15	328.2342754489	22.621874895454	0.50101132352946	16	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-12-12 03:00:15	FORECAST	2022	78	158	34.58	20.52	27.55	69.582743982647	0.1162	0.7962	7.98	8.7762	T	T	2.58	-6.42	15	328.68790604577	22.871006416575	0.48887687080323	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-11 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	33.72	18.89	26.305	53.705416708168	0.0141	0.5241	7.04	7.5641	T	T	1.72	-5.28	15	317.6091164961	17.057329951736	0.44555855065462	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-11 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	33.76	18.92	26.34	55.938691933546	0.0141	0.6741	7.35	8.0241	T	T	1.76	-4.24	15	319.19457086721	17.855326766601	0.44756302463203	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-11 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	33.51	18.93	26.22	56.744848004043	0.0142	0.6042	7.51	8.1142	T	T	1.51	-1.49	15	319.76467437255	18.144997844332	0.43505904788931	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-11 11:00:07	FORECAST	2022	78	158	32.62	21.78	27.2	63.894793219645	0.3973	1.2073	7.42	8.6273	T	T	0.62	-1.38	15	324.77026086175	20.751128661652	0.39115232793063	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-11 07:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	31.14	22.71	26.925	67.861935130627	0.387	1.247	8.09	9.337	T	T	-0.86	-15.86	15	327.50864384341	22.225370343221	0.3213555010003	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-11 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	31.16	22.7	26.93	69.980199520614	0.387	1.247	8.71	9.957	T	T	-0.84	-11.84	15	328.95954849372	23.020654837802	0.32226422202434	16	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-10 23:00:05	FORECAST	2022	78	158	33.99	20.41	27.2	67.000196407857	0	0.81	9.07	9.88	T	T	1.99	-1.01	15	326.91615863646	21.903446837545	0.45911319442642	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	34.02	20.24	27.13	66.091510840465	0	0.83	8.79	9.62	T	T	2.02	-0.98	15	326.2899889671	21.564998342954	0.4606224984029	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	32.45	21.1	26.775	66.981752934385	0.0055	0.9855	8.69	9.6755	T	T	0.45	-2.55	15	326.90346371555	21.89656703999	0.38290321846857	16	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	78	158	24.38	17.17	20.775	68.921974822075	0	0.78	8.47	9.25	T	T	-7.62	-19.62	15	328.23569356036	22.622652207274	0.093198600122326	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-10 09:23:04	FORECAST	2022	78	158	21.56	17.18	19.37	68.197275133883	0	0.78	8.4	9.18	T	T	-10.44	-21.44	15	327.73885530378	22.350896887216	0.046504182390104	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-10 07:00:10	FORECAST	2022	78	158	16.72	15.86	16.29	96.023322865965	0	0.8	8.61	9.41	T	T	-15.28	-14.28	15	346.17418689373	33.24079571596	0.01082542574337	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-12-10 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	78	158	16.42	15.81	16.115	97.161913108128	0	0.8	8.68	9.48	T	T	-15.58	-13.58	15	346.90113110718	33.705577557748	0.0097791845137133	16	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L