Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 11, 2021
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Friday, December 10, 2021 |
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Sunday, December 12, 2021 ]
DAY 72
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/12/2021 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.81°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.333
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 59
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 2.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.58 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
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Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.93 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 152
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-12 07:00:04 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.58998 | 20.03 | 24.80999 | 57.926393333333 | 2.1400000000001 | 3.7100000000001 | 7.87 | 11.58 | T | T | -2.41002 | 58.58998 | 21 | 326.84909272904 | 18.933189106066 | 0.33276413190334 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 03:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.58998 | 20.03 | 24.80999 | 57.926393333333 | 2.1400000000001 | 3.7100000000001 | 7.87 | 11.58 | T | T | -2.41002 | 58.58998 | 21 | 326.84909272904 | 18.933189106066 | 0.33276413190334 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.09 | 24.05 | 28.07 | 45.98297816417 | 0.9431 | 2.5131 | 7.87 | 10.3831 | T | T | 0.090000000000003 | 61.09 | 21 | 318.50042450515 | 14.645598065299 | 0.43500478286412 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.99 | 24.37 | 26.68 | 48.619702477331 | 1.5783 | 3.1483 | 7.87 | 11.0183 | T | T | -3.01 | 57.99 | 21 | 320.36538955858 | 15.576069924372 | 0.30967633454673 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.29 | 24.63 | 26.46 | 50.863162054017 | 2.2385 | 3.8085 | 7.87 | 11.6785 | T | T | -3.71 | 57.29 | 21 | 321.94239181276 | 16.37500804683 | 0.28366325108712 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.94 | 24.25 | 28.095 | 50.441492487842 | 2.5136 | 4.1836 | 7.87 | 12.0536 | T | T | -0.059999999999999 | 60.94 | 21 | 321.64667164755 | 16.224338171649 | 0.42866858206056 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.74 | 23.75 | 27.745 | 49.963566546137 | 2.3947 | 4.0647 | 7.87 | 11.9347 | T | T | -0.26 | 60.74 | 21 | 321.31111529194 | 16.053849290902 | 0.42024910197147 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.95 | 23.88 | 27.915 | 49.705969658137 | 2.2817 | 3.9517 | 7.87 | 11.8217 | T | T | -0.050000000000001 | 60.95 | 21 | 321.13008504738 | 15.96208226368 | 0.42909044276642 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.08 | 24.11 | 26.095 | 52.464329469554 | 2.1866 | 3.8566 | 7.87 | 11.7266 | T | T | -3.92 | 57.08 | 21 | 323.06242270458 | 16.949253384005 | 0.27606828953916 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 09:23:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.89 | 24.34 | 28.115 | 51.941935923035 | 2.1663 | 3.8363 | 7.87 | 11.7063 | T | T | -0.11 | 61.89 | 21 | 322.69750427984 | 16.761533089827 | 0.42656051003984 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.46 | 24.07 | 28.265 | 79.40916224691 | 2.203 | 3.933 | 7.87 | 11.803 | T | T | 0.46 | 62.46 | 21 | 341.24303676014 | 27.097823671714 | 0.45070225374579 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.6 | 24.14 | 28.37 | 79.726977961982 | 2.2007 | 3.9807 | 7.87 | 11.8507 | T | T | 0.6 | 62.6 | 21 | 341.45013998206 | 27.222787785465 | 0.45666337136587 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.25 | 24.5 | 28.375 | 37.139991373547 | 2.2393 | 3.5093 | 7.87 | 11.3793 | T | T | 0.25 | 64.25 | 21 | 312.15376866063 | 11.593388275276 | 0.44178180141616 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.58 | 24.28 | 27.93 | 37.300726314916 | 2.1825 | 3.4725 | 7.87 | 11.3425 | T | T | -0.42 | 63.58 | 21 | 312.27040553503 | 11.64791293311 | 0.41353949803172 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.57 | 23.95 | 27.76 | 34.230837551147 | 2.1129 | 3.4129 | 7.87 | 11.2829 | T | T | -0.43 | 63.57 | 21 | 310.03449784932 | 10.612740531132 | 0.41312096322032 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.56 | 23.19 | 27.375 | 36.536281675944 | 2.1478 | 3.5178 | 7.87 | 11.3878 | T | T | -0.44 | 64.56 | 21 | 311.71526280103 | 11.388916644389 | 0.41270252710906 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.63 | 23.26 | 27.445 | 37.033583911306 | 2.146 | 3.576 | 7.87 | 11.446 | T | T | -0.37 | 68.63 | 21 | 312.07652817345 | 11.557312292861 | 0.41563363648419 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:35:43 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.63 | 23.26 | 27.445 | 39.710471827973 | 2.146 | 3.576 | 7.8 | 11.376 | T | T | -0.37 | 61.63 | 21 | 314.01333444395 | 12.469617671045 | 0.41563363648419 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.2 | 23.86 | 28.03 | 41.232714457658 | 2.1906 | 3.6906 | 7.8 | 11.4906 | T | T | 0.2 | 61.2 | 21 | 315.10886188888 | 12.992793725342 | 0.43966205574502 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.07 | 23.49 | 27.78 | 41.823467530607 | 2.1933 | 3.7233 | 7.8 | 11.5233 | T | T | 0.07 | 56.07 | 21 | 315.53287541442 | 13.196678969734 | 0.43415895428652 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.81 | 23.08 | 26.445 | 41.209646854945 | 2.0156 | 3.6056 | 7.8 | 11.4056 | T | T | -2.19 | 58.81 | 21 | 315.09229218685 | 12.984842087735 | 0.34139828054967 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.56 | 21.18 | 25.37 | 42.384791415341 | 1.8799 | 3.4899 | 7.8 | 11.2899 | T | T | -2.44 | 61.56 | 21 | 315.93517705762 | 13.390846580356 | 0.33159434510012 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.56 | 21.18 | 25.37 | 42.384791415341 | 1.8799 | 3.4899 | 7.8 | 11.2899 | T | T | -2.44 | 61.56 | 21 | 315.93517705762 | 13.390846580356 | 0.33159434510012 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 32.11 | 22.68 | 27.395 | 53.714564677609 | 1.8682 | 3.4282 | 7.96 | 11.3882 | T | T | 0.11 | 68.11 | 21 | 323.93381188537 | 17.399963689781 | 0.43585090894012 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.05 | 22.68 | 25.865 | 54.366725201153 | 1.8657 | 3.4557 | 8.11 | 11.5657 | T | T | -2.95 | 68.05 | 21 | 324.38725784684 | 17.635872906115 | 0.31195365468702 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.55 | 23.59 | 26.57 | 45.910246456268 | 2.1358 | 3.7858 | 8.38 | 12.1658 | T | T | -2.45 | 73.55 | 21 | 318.44880386802 | 14.620063069284 | 0.33120452008916 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.27 | 23.58 | 26.425 | 45.415238896981 | 2.1154 | 3.6354 | 8.49 | 12.1254 | T | T | -2.73 | 72.27 | 21 | 318.09722353546 | 14.446461399329 | 0.32036491823025 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.94 | 24.26 | 26.6 | 45.897541123909 | 2.1207 | 3.6307 | 8.43 | 12.0607 | T | T | -3.06 | 70.94 | 21 | 318.43978540087 | 14.615603145925 | 0.30778412307502 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.82 | 24.45 | 26.635 | 46.530916865191 | 2.2722 | 3.7522 | 8.38 | 12.1322 | T | T | -3.18 | 72.82 | 21 | 318.88901238583 | 14.838198124548 | 0.30326367582599 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.83 | 24.45 | 26.64 | 62.802552147517 | 2.2722 | 3.8022 | 8.4 | 12.2022 | T | T | -3.17 | 73.83 | 21 | 330.18547446303 | 20.736490478317 | 0.30363924547894 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.73 | 23.82 | 26.275 | 63.503749359466 | 2.1903 | 3.7003 | 8.46 | 12.1603 | T | T | -3.27 | 72.73 | 21 | 330.66186062989 | 20.998267920175 | 0.29989292976459 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 28.76 | 23.58 | 26.17 | 63.258053492681 | 2.1903 | 3.6303 | 8.47 | 12.1003 | T | T | -3.24 | 72.76 | 21 | 330.49503394177 | 20.906472536154 | 0.30101462899704 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 35.14 | 23.49 | 29.315 | 41.346857563887 | 2.7665 | 4.1665 | 7.47 | 11.6365 | T | T | 3.14 | 81.14 | 21 | 315.19083779858 | 13.0321506759 | 0.5651725930659 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 34.85 | 21.9 | 28.375 | 41.845702682047 | 2.7536 | 4.0436 | 7.49 | 11.5336 | T | T | 2.85 | 82.85 | 21 | 315.54882229257 | 13.204362199325 | 0.55287739849152 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 34.77 | 21.95 | 28.36 | 41.390691998298 | 2.8796 | 4.0396 | 7.48 | 11.5196 | T | T | 2.77 | 78.77 | 21 | 315.22231273277 | 13.047269657313 | 0.5494761404891 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 33.89 | 24.58 | 29.235 | 48.705996373238 | 3.0236 | 4.1336 | 7.49 | 11.6236 | T | T | 1.89 | 80.89 | 21 | 320.42621473098 | 15.606678052578 | 0.51187712381781 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.89 | 26.71 | 28.3 | 52.948296548075 | 3.1298 | 4.4098 | 7.72 | 12.1298 | T | T | -2.11 | 67.89 | 21 | 323.40006647526 | 17.123482623399 | 0.34455866554367 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.9 | 26.57 | 28.235 | 53.615532883345 | 3.1298 | 4.2998 | 7.96 | 12.2598 | T | T | -2.1 | 74.9 | 21 | 323.86488955488 | 17.36418863569 | 0.3449544827884 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.89 | 26.64 | 28.265 | 52.789302142951 | 3.6396 | 4.8796 | 8.06 | 12.9396 | T | T | -2.11 | 75.89 | 21 | 323.28918844571 | 17.06621064841 | 0.34455866554367 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 34.56 | 25.85 | 30.205 | 51.653435271487 | 3.3878 | 4.5978 | 8.2 | 12.7978 | T | T | 2.56 | 85.56 | 21 | 322.4957642799 | 16.65801408556 | 0.54053117228305 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 33.28 | 26.58 | 29.93 | 54.359624687691 | 3.3878 | 4.5978 | 8.2 | 12.7978 | T | T | 1.28 | 83.28 | 21 | 324.38232491686 | 17.633301437801 | 0.48573179404814 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.62 | 23.33 | 26.475 | 54.379152485599 | 3.138 | 4.028 | 8.27 | 12.298 | T | T | -2.38 | 76.62 | 21 | 324.39589122303 | 17.640373634519 | 0.33393711192041 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 29.68 | 24.1 | 26.89 | 54.464897273355 | 3.138 | 4.098 | 8.36 | 12.458 | T | T | -2.32 | 75.68 | 21 | 324.45545167837 | 17.671432845442 | 0.33628636454799 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 31.33 | 24.29 | 27.81 | 54.101504096556 | 3.1792 | 3.9392 | 8.62 | 12.5592 | T | T | -0.67 | 78.33 | 21 | 324.20294073708 | 17.539866726403 | 0.40310679030627 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 33.9 | 18.46 | 26.18 | 31.450529271468 | 0.3703 | 0.7503 | 8.44 | 9.1903 | T | T | 1.9 | 74.9 | 21 | 307.99440147367 | 9.6865869389959 | 0.51230561750655 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 33.93 | 18.46 | 26.195 | 31.424801154275 | 0.0775 | 0.4875 | 8.55 | 9.0375 | T | T | 1.93 | 68.93 | 21 | 307.97545569259 | 9.6780674555368 | 0.5135910113676 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 33.6 | 18.13 | 25.865 | 34.985818590168 | 0.0109 | 0.8109 | 8.51 | 9.3209 | T | T | 1.6 | 68.6 | 21 | 310.58599470046 | 10.866105267237 | 0.49944685098527 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 22.1 | 14.97 | 18.535 | 35.484055216911 | 0.0134 | 0.7434 | 8.46 | 9.2034 | T | T | -9.9 | 57.1 | 21 | 310.94936664102 | 11.033744495553 | 0.1079384118766 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 16.11 | 15.26 | 15.685 | 37.005739089973 | 0 | 0.74 | 8.98 | 9.72 | T | T | -15.89 | 47.11 | 21 | 312.05631235167 | 11.547874476265 | 0.029834845979687 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 72 | 152 | 15.97 | 15.21 | 15.59 | 36.475773659031 | 0 | 0.74 | 8.52 | 9.26 | T | T | -16.03 | 44.97 | 21 | 311.67127558477 | 11.368450904252 | 0.028825444421815 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |