Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 10, 2021

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DAY 71 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/11/2021 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.55°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.243 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 58 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.49 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.82 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.68 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.50 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 42 in SWE DAY: 22 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 316.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 13.32 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 151 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-11 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	71	151	26.88998	20.21	23.54999	42.04223875	0.49000000000001	1.82	8.68	10.5	T	T	-5.11002	57.88998	22	316.76010129907	13.31730380529	0.24335668774503	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-11 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	71	151	26.88998	20.21	23.54999	42.04223875	0.49000000000001	1.82	8.68	10.5	T	T	-5.11002	57.88998	22	316.76010129907	13.31730380529	0.24335668774503	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-10 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.49	21.69	24.59	43.526278223069	0.5945	1.9245	8.68	10.6045	T	T	-4.51	58.49	22	317.81785214783	13.833428256844	0.26271110141741	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 09:23:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.51	21.13	24.32	43.520710668487	0.5885	1.9185	8.68	10.5985	T	T	-4.49	58.51	22	317.8138913133	13.831486410272	0.26336950623804	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.59	20.89	24.24	70.907920694346	0.6501	1.9801	8.68	10.6601	T	T	-4.41	58.59	22	336.63542963667	23.870118347584	0.26601151283287	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.62	20.39	24.005	71.171589276455	0.6983	2.0283	8.68	10.7083	T	T	-4.38	58.62	22	336.81034469564	23.971327516739	0.26700571058394	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-09 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.41	21.62	24.515	28.294622512021	0.7294	1.5194	8.68	10.1994	T	T	-4.59	61.41	22	306.76957843691	8.6799294200443	0.26008591738024	16	2	2	1	5	2	2	25	WET	L
2021-12-09 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.45	21.83	24.64	28.446851211332	0.7494	1.5394	8.68	10.2194	T	T	-4.55	61.45	22	306.88212542647	8.7298301614244	0.26139681918535	16	2	2	1	5	2	2	25	WET	L
2021-12-09 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.37	21.76	24.565	28.144786063494	0.762	1.552	8.68	10.232	T	T	-4.63	61.37	22	306.6587576009	8.6308451271739	0.258778408535	16	2	2	1	5	2	2	25	WET	L
2021-12-09 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.55	21.27	24.41	31.246961915147	0.8337	1.6237	8.68	10.3037	T	T	-4.45	61.55	22	308.9445832969	9.6535796281692	0.26468883529961	16	2	2	1	5	2	2	25	WET	L
2021-12-09 09:37:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.6	21.13	24.365	31.67027977442	0.8527	1.6827	8.68	10.3627	T	T	-4.4	65.6	22	309.25510909466	9.7941958266965	0.26634270389097	16	2	2	1	5	2	2	25	WET	L
2021-12-09 09:35:42	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.6	21.13	24.365	34.347167691086	0.8527	1.6127	8.68	10.2927	T	T	-4.4	58.6	22	311.21103395653	10.689217570621	0.26634270389097	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-08 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.67	22.93	24.8	34.273779432918	0.6779	1.6779	8.68	10.3579	T	T	-5.33	57.67	22	311.15758838161	10.66454655307	0.23645865291393	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-08 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.45	21.25	23.85	34.731032751376	0.6959	1.7059	8.68	10.3859	T	T	-5.55	53.45	22	311.49042441732	10.818384132178	0.22966884152322	16	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-08 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.9	22.24	26.07	34.823377496618	0.6895	1.7695	8.68	10.4495	T	T	-2.1	57.9	22	311.55759552433	10.849487760882	0.3475703193178	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-08 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.83	23.27	26.55	35.561946337072	0.6802	1.7902	8.68	10.4702	T	T	-2.17	60.83	22	312.09426027206	11.098679335903	0.34496512336833	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-08 10:37:50	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.83	23.27	26.55	35.561946337072	0.6802	1.7902	8.68	10.4702	T	T	-2.17	60.83	22	312.09426027206	11.098679335903	0.34496512336833	16	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-08 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.8	23.19	26.995	46.674255720648	0.6307	1.9007	8.68	10.5807	T	T	-1.2	64.8	22	320.04842104154	14.938021846683	0.38166860205785	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-08 03:00:12	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.84	21.64	26.24	47.378227183219	0.6454	2.0754	8.68	10.7554	T	T	-1.16	67.84	22	320.54480006406	15.186844359835	0.38320790648533	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.81	23.43	26.62	37.702895770895	0.6429	2.2929	8.8	11.0929	T	T	-2.19	72.81	22	313.64425691961	11.82529672778	0.34422212222565	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.43	23.39	26.41	37.538014848311	0.5924	2.2724	8.8	11.0724	T	T	-2.57	72.43	22	313.52518638124	11.769113101699	0.33022203724394	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.43	22.98	26.205	37.284106146972	0.5855	2.1955	8.8	10.9955	T	T	-2.57	71.43	22	313.34172591956	11.68266616946	0.33022203724394	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 12:27:39	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.58	23.23	26.405	36.925361653658	0.5751	2.1151	8.8	10.9151	T	T	-2.42	72.58	22	313.08231511533	11.560677712998	0.33572139929045	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.77	21.88	25.825	53.106008870943	0.6099	2.1799	8.81	10.9899	T	T	-2.23	73.77	22	324.55070957742	17.235592861889	0.34273792385244	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 07:00:14	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.23	21.03	25.13	53.541086075148	0.6145	2.2045	8.83	11.0345	T	T	-2.77	73.23	22	324.85261996113	17.392962087076	0.32294636349761	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-07 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.25	22.89	26.07	53.090527143313	0.5802	2.1202	8.85	10.9702	T	T	-2.75	73.25	22	324.53996029115	17.229997570927	0.32367095049803	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-06 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	28.07	21.1	24.585	34.566862712083	0.4573	2.1073	7.82	9.9273	T	T	-3.93	75.07	22	311.37096904004	10.763117539335	0.28213993969102	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-06 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.27	18.87	24.07	34.09524209615	0.428	2.028	7.81	9.838	T	T	-2.73	77.27	22	311.02752555775	10.604558782458	0.32439620605834	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-06 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.06	19.76	24.41	33.47072770985	0.3934	1.9434	7.76	9.7034	T	T	-2.94	73.06	22	310.57210823881	10.395074469135	0.31681469356129	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-06 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	29.98	17.28	23.63	33.957967603806	0.3213	1.8913	7.77	9.6613	T	T	-2.02	75.98	22	310.92748222317	10.558465368467	0.35055651449319	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-06 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.45	21.43	23.94	36.162108392629	0.4548	2.0848	7.98	10.0648	T	T	-5.55	67.45	22	312.52961394967	11.301729775554	0.22966884152322	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-06 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.11	20.01	25.06	36.379278165902	0.353	1.993	8.2	10.193	T	T	-1.89	74.11	22	312.6869840501	11.375326771616	0.3554287549377	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.71	19.94	25.325	32.615156869525	0.5302	2.0102	8.35	10.3602	T	T	-1.29	74.71	22	309.94702269337	10.108970766387	0.37821203294179	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 19:00:05	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.67	17.78	24.225	33.580425008941	0.4962	2.0762	8.39	10.4662	T	T	-1.33	79.67	22	310.6521555844	10.431831414468	0.37667888363462	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 15:00:05	FORECAST	2022	71	151	30.11	18.97	24.54	34.77432866348	0.5024	2.1724	8.3	10.4724	T	T	-1.89	79.11	22	311.52191960957	10.832965618382	0.3554287549377	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	28.42	19.19	23.805	33.383235397955	0.2085	1.9185	8.3	10.2185	T	T	-3.58	76.42	22	310.50824813018	10.365769940337	0.29418918992826	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 07:00:18	FORECAST	2022	71	151	28.43	19.01	23.72	33.180148583352	0.2085	1.9785	8.4	10.3785	T	T	-3.57	75.43	22	310.35996157977	10.29778963954	0.29453691696228	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-05 03:00:11	FORECAST	2022	71	151	28.5	20.52	24.51	32.821276021706	0.2512	1.7712	8.67	10.4412	T	T	-3.5	76.5	22	310.09773890056	10.177803482162	0.29697629393359	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-04 23:00:05	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.76	14.62	20.69	29.022973484775	0.0095	1.5095	8.37	9.8795	T	T	-5.24	69.76	22	307.30767516027	8.9189825078443	0.23926777096447	92	1	2	1	5	2	2	20	WET	L
2021-12-04 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.78	14.51	20.645	30.758261947469	0.0095	1.4995	8.52	10.0195	T	T	-5.22	63.78	22	308.58568083342	9.4915592043125	0.23989448228301	92	1	2	1	4	2	2	16	WET	L
2021-12-04 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.09	18.86	22.975	34.932441619084	0.1857	1.8457	8.52	10.3657	T	T	-4.91	64.09	22	311.63690793314	10.886238092726	0.24972187223175	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-04 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	25.87	12.91	19.39	35.294422712137	0.0035	1.7535	8.5	10.2535	T	T	-6.13	63.87	22	311.89998641372	11.008329964396	0.21230139032632	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-04 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	71	151	25.81	13.97	19.89	37.005739089973	0.0172	1.8272	8.95	10.7772	T	T	-6.19	59.81	22	313.14045718496	11.587994057102	0.21054955993222	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-04 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	71	151	25.77	14	19.885	36.475773659031	0.0172	1.6472	8.67	10.3172	T	T	-6.23	57.77	22	312.75688078133	11.408049193684	0.20938639143184	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-03 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	71	151	26.45	13.81	20.13	35.498176644783	0.0192	1.4892	8.48	9.9692	T	T	-5.55	64.45	22	312.04796313272	11.07713371693	0.22966884152322	92	1	2	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-12-03 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.07	16.03	21.55	35.11777915637	0.0548	1.5748	8.18	9.7548	T	T	-4.93	65.07	22	311.77163667149	10.948727483849	0.2490814699406	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-03 15:00:06	FORECAST	2022	71	151	27.08	15.88	21.48	35.78089514084	0.0527	1.6027	8.35	9.9527	T	T	-4.92	65.08	22	312.25316121823	11.172697618945	0.24940156199548	92	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-12-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	71	151	17.46	12.35	14.905	38.319179124039	0.0005	2.1005	8.34	10.4405	T	T	-14.54	50.46	22	314.08887132762	12.03562772127	0.049656572534188	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-03 07:00:20	FORECAST	2022	71	151	13.43	12.43	12.93	37.072591188887	0.0005	2.1005	8.44	10.5405	T	T	-18.57	51.43	22	313.18880648362	11.610720587702	0.019862807633717	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-12-03 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	71	151	11.54	10.95	11.245	41.274715797737	0.0002	2.0902	8.7	10.7902	T	T	-20.46	38.54	22	316.2114821384	13.051539057244	0.012275565662176	92	1	2	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L