MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 8, 2021

[ Tuesday, December 7, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 9, 2021 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2021 09:37:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.456
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-09 09:37:03OBSERVATION20226914931.4700818.7599225.11525.3231120833330.251.647.589.22TT-0.5299297.4700824306.78482264886 7.76874644940250.4559894306370216 23152230WETL
2021-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20226914924.1720.1322.1527.967782122790.18481.57487.589.1548TT-7.8390.1724308.733824260328.63460033084820.216834015582951613152225WETL
2021-12-08 10:37:49FORECAST20226914924.1720.1322.1527.967782122790.18481.57487.589.1548TT-7.8390.1724308.733824260328.63460033084820.216834015582951613152225WETL
2021-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20226914926.8320.2923.5638.9151943496140.33691.72697.589.3069TT-5.1792.8324316.6637401762812.3230309924360.295322373370339023151215WETL
2021-12-08 03:00:11FORECAST20226914929.7520.3425.04539.3334516816270.48691.87697.589.4569TT-2.2595.7524316.962359509912.4672236526770.393979349518639023151215WETL
2021-12-07 23:00:01FORECAST20226914932.0920.5726.3329.1433999950220.64122.15127.589.7312TT0.090000000000003102.0924309.596006619079.02268025776130.47868736285619023152230WETL
2021-12-07 19:00:01FORECAST20226914932.0220.2126.11529.5871941387940.75352.26357.589.8435TT0.020000000000003102.0224309.920810483879.16968718743870.476119516488499023152230WETL
2021-12-07 15:00:01FORECAST20226914932.0120.2126.1129.4196633560730.6922.2027.589.782TT0.009999999999998102.0124309.798241144649.11415996277870.475752759740039023152230WETL
2021-12-07 12:27:39FORECAST20226914931.9420.1726.05529.2055881031020.64492.15497.589.7349TT-0.059999999999999101.9424309.641542885529.04326336112370.473186055022069023152230WETL
2021-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20226914932.3120.6126.4645.0224923477520.64622.16627.589.7462TT0.31103.3124320.9927641559814.4518942678960.486763003156459023151215WETL
2021-12-07 07:00:14FORECAST20226914932.2520.3826.31545.0766464953840.6852.2257.589.805TT0.25103.2524321.0308505518414.4709941644380.484559877742369023151215WETL
2021-12-07 03:00:08FORECAST20226914932.2120.3326.2745.1713764125640.68322.24327.589.8232TT0.21103.2124321.0974611284614.5044142817520.483091385124559023151215WETL
2021-12-06 23:00:02FORECAST20226914931.4320.2225.82526.5422985600940.70971.23977.588.8197TT-0.57106.4324307.684934392388.16666539108580.454526061601499023142224WETL
2021-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20226914931.5120.6726.0926.6181497605250.74231.26237.588.8423TT-0.49106.5124307.740842435758.19149183138480.457447551561229023142224WETL
2021-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20226914931.5620.4826.0226.8715133445450.78081.25087.588.8308TT-0.44106.5624307.927512404998.27447825874340.459274661294889023142224WETL
2021-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20226914931.4320.2725.8527.2746710614040.77531.25537.588.8353TT-0.57106.4324308.224298222638.40671634715430.454526061601499023142224WETL
2021-12-06 07:00:04FORECAST20226914931.1120.4925.828.2222257368040.79511.48517.589.0651TT-0.89102.1124308.920648159398.71842826711410.442866239771619023142224WETL
2021-12-06 03:00:05FORECAST20226914930.9420.5625.7528.9302059240620.81771.72777.589.3077TT-1.06104.9424309.439843997718.95215840796340.43669137203529023152230WETL
2021-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20226914930.9322.4126.6724.691354021590.77291.80297.619.4129TT-1.07107.9324306.317305169727.56338902488510.436328609286299023152230WETL
2021-12-05 19:00:04FORECAST20226914930.9522.2226.58525.4352014175160.87421.94427.619.5542TT-1.05107.9524306.867693353627.80524158897780.437054188026779023152230WETL
2021-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20226914930.8920.6125.7526.3220557240420.95681.93687.619.5468TT-1.11108.8924307.522537788578.09462537606960.434878096710449023152230WETL
2021-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20226914930.8620.3225.5926.830681352621.02942.00947.619.6194TT-1.14107.8624307.897436853558.2610980175060.433790786001179023152230WETL
2021-12-05 07:00:17FORECAST20226914931.420.2925.84526.3429633831651.0162.0867.629.706TT-0.6108.424307.537958006138.10146116668890.453431128112839023152230WETL
2021-12-05 03:00:10FORECAST20226914931.5720.6526.1127.3637458775871.00992.34997.629.9699TT-0.43107.5724308.289829946198.4359645632920.459640187737769023152230WETL
2021-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20226914932.5521.9727.2625.8385796371561.12932.63937.159.7893TT0.55107.5524307.165726725967.93672609181380.495578873014359023152230WETL
2021-12-04 19:00:04FORECAST20226914930.9121.6126.2627.4683005592071.09372.74377.169.9037TT-1.09100.9124308.366731186228.47031005468350.435603244715369023152230WETL
2021-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20226914931.3821.5926.48527.9545670039091.05462.69467.179.8646TT-0.62101.3824308.724117829328.63024903758250.452701368542529023152230WETL
2021-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20226914931.2921.0926.1929.3690643678431.01942.63947.179.8094TT-0.7199.2924309.761211515079.09739695964710.449419462209859023152230WETL
2021-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20226914931.721.726.730.6528644789031.09212.80217.5310.3321TT-0.396.724310.699259292259.52382228878090.464395024292629023152230WETL
2021-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20226914931.4721.7126.5930.1861260144860.91272.23277.649.8727TT-0.5394.4724310.358576402649.36852309696650.455986509139359023152230WETL
2021-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20226914930.8920.9225.90531.4121449548931.04662.20667.619.8166TT-1.1199.8924311.252612953819.77711219569440.434878096710449023152230WETL
2021-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20226914932.120.7626.4330.0821655809931.06651.98657.559.5365TT0.198.124310.282638332149.33397370321480.479054272776569023152230WETL
2021-12-03 15:00:05FORECAST20226914932.120.7226.4130.5972526274071.09652.22657.519.7365TT0.198.124310.658688143949.50530236203890.479054272776569023152230WETL
2021-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20226914932.9721.8527.4131.6435158969141.4422.5227.5510.072TT0.9796.9724311.421021028719.85445602955530.511009250765969033152235WETL
2021-12-03 07:00:18FORECAST20226914933.0721.8727.4730.2277664393341.4422.6327.5410.172TT1.07102.0724310.388987095879.38236580727560.514681586747939033152235WETL
2021-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20226914933.3620.7527.05534.0375876674611.41762.83767.5710.4076TT1.3691.3624313.157797199510.6591359759270.52532320903369033151217.5WETL
2021-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20226914931.5721.4426.50532.0368869437971.15062.83067.2810.1106TT-0.4394.5724311.707117117789.98612567067930.459640187737769023152230WETL
2021-12-02 19:00:04FORECAST20226914931.6121.4526.5332.9329748114831.15062.85067.2710.1206TT-0.3995.6124312.357769458210.2868705537380.461102631603769023151215WETL
2021-12-02 15:00:04FORECAST20226914932.4124.0628.23532.8348725138491.11933.11937.1510.2693TT0.4196.4124312.2866092265410.2538910017360.490435743561029023151215WETL
2021-12-02 11:00:04FORECAST20226914931.5725.7128.6428.844563752020.70862.59867.029.6186TT-0.4395.5724309.377088112348.92384714147070.459640187737769023152230WETL
2021-12-02 07:00:09FORECAST20226914933.4625.4129.43529.608671198520.7252.5256.899.415TT1.4695.4624309.936519818869.17680850773040.52898893412669033152235WETL
2021-12-02 03:00:21FORECAST20226914933.4825.4229.4528.1050265995760.7252.5256.879.395TT1.48104.4824308.834610301898.67980493740430.529721794495439033152235WETL
2021-12-01 23:00:06FORECAST20226914930.1425.3427.7435.1216711805590.78653.9265710.9265TT-1.86106.1424313.9407769011911.0261247364930.407863929408429023151215WETL
2021-12-01 19:00:04FORECAST20226914932.1225.1128.61532.1471813150040.78573.82577.0510.8757TT0.12108.1224311.7872821669410.0230822915330.479788145558459023151215WETL
2021-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20226914929.7426.4928.11529.1337014527360.70953.56956.9510.5195TT-2.26103.7424309.588904365289.01947071285770.393625018737599023152230WETL
2021-12-01 11:00:04FORECAST20226914934.3330.6932.5120.4199930179920.03382.24387.139.3738TT2.33120.3324303.136626791876.19004780258750.560743870350239033152235WETL
2021-12-01 07:00:08FORECAST20226914931.830.4931.14520.1621375970440.02142.23147.239.4614TT-0.2117.824302.943507469216.10798868172530.46805609001289023152230WETL
2021-12-01 03:00:09FORECAST20226914933.1432.532.8219.8130092867650.01542.21547.269.4754TT1.14115.1424302.681828198535.99703787303240.517251499809179033152235WETL