Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 8, 2021
[
Tuesday, December 7, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Thursday, December 9, 2021 ]
DAY 69
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2021 09:37:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.12°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.456
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.22 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.77 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.47008 | 18.75992 | 25.115 | 25.323112083333 | 0.25 | 1.64 | 7.58 | 9.22 | T | T | -0.52992 | 97.47008 | 24 | 306.78482264886 | 7.7687464494025 | 0.45598943063702 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 24.17 | 20.13 | 22.15 | 27.96778212279 | 0.1848 | 1.5748 | 7.58 | 9.1548 | T | T | -7.83 | 90.17 | 24 | 308.73382426032 | 8.6346003308482 | 0.21683401558295 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:49 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 24.17 | 20.13 | 22.15 | 27.96778212279 | 0.1848 | 1.5748 | 7.58 | 9.1548 | T | T | -7.83 | 90.17 | 24 | 308.73382426032 | 8.6346003308482 | 0.21683401558295 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 26.83 | 20.29 | 23.56 | 38.915194349614 | 0.3369 | 1.7269 | 7.58 | 9.3069 | T | T | -5.17 | 92.83 | 24 | 316.66374017628 | 12.323030992436 | 0.29532237337033 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 29.75 | 20.34 | 25.045 | 39.333451681627 | 0.4869 | 1.8769 | 7.58 | 9.4569 | T | T | -2.25 | 95.75 | 24 | 316.9623595099 | 12.467223652677 | 0.39397934951863 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.09 | 20.57 | 26.33 | 29.143399995022 | 0.6412 | 2.1512 | 7.58 | 9.7312 | T | T | 0.090000000000003 | 102.09 | 24 | 309.59600661907 | 9.0226802577613 | 0.4786873628561 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.02 | 20.21 | 26.115 | 29.587194138794 | 0.7535 | 2.2635 | 7.58 | 9.8435 | T | T | 0.020000000000003 | 102.02 | 24 | 309.92081048387 | 9.1696871874387 | 0.47611951648849 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.01 | 20.21 | 26.11 | 29.419663356073 | 0.692 | 2.202 | 7.58 | 9.782 | T | T | 0.009999999999998 | 102.01 | 24 | 309.79824114464 | 9.1141599627787 | 0.47575275974003 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.94 | 20.17 | 26.055 | 29.205588103102 | 0.6449 | 2.1549 | 7.58 | 9.7349 | T | T | -0.059999999999999 | 101.94 | 24 | 309.64154288552 | 9.0432633611237 | 0.47318605502206 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.31 | 20.61 | 26.46 | 45.022492347752 | 0.6462 | 2.1662 | 7.58 | 9.7462 | T | T | 0.31 | 103.31 | 24 | 320.99276415598 | 14.451894267896 | 0.48676300315645 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.25 | 20.38 | 26.315 | 45.076646495384 | 0.685 | 2.225 | 7.58 | 9.805 | T | T | 0.25 | 103.25 | 24 | 321.03085055184 | 14.470994164438 | 0.48455987774236 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.21 | 20.33 | 26.27 | 45.171376412564 | 0.6832 | 2.2432 | 7.58 | 9.8232 | T | T | 0.21 | 103.21 | 24 | 321.09746112846 | 14.504414281752 | 0.48309138512455 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.43 | 20.22 | 25.825 | 26.542298560094 | 0.7097 | 1.2397 | 7.58 | 8.8197 | T | T | -0.57 | 106.43 | 24 | 307.68493439238 | 8.1666653910858 | 0.45452606160149 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.51 | 20.67 | 26.09 | 26.618149760525 | 0.7423 | 1.2623 | 7.58 | 8.8423 | T | T | -0.49 | 106.51 | 24 | 307.74084243575 | 8.1914918313848 | 0.45744755156122 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.56 | 20.48 | 26.02 | 26.871513344545 | 0.7808 | 1.2508 | 7.58 | 8.8308 | T | T | -0.44 | 106.56 | 24 | 307.92751240499 | 8.2744782587434 | 0.45927466129488 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.43 | 20.27 | 25.85 | 27.274671061404 | 0.7753 | 1.2553 | 7.58 | 8.8353 | T | T | -0.57 | 106.43 | 24 | 308.22429822263 | 8.4067163471543 | 0.45452606160149 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.11 | 20.49 | 25.8 | 28.222225736804 | 0.7951 | 1.4851 | 7.58 | 9.0651 | T | T | -0.89 | 102.11 | 24 | 308.92064815939 | 8.7184282671141 | 0.44286623977161 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.94 | 20.56 | 25.75 | 28.930205924062 | 0.8177 | 1.7277 | 7.58 | 9.3077 | T | T | -1.06 | 104.94 | 24 | 309.43984399771 | 8.9521584079634 | 0.4366913720352 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.93 | 22.41 | 26.67 | 24.69135402159 | 0.7729 | 1.8029 | 7.61 | 9.4129 | T | T | -1.07 | 107.93 | 24 | 306.31730516972 | 7.5633890248851 | 0.43632860928629 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.95 | 22.22 | 26.585 | 25.435201417516 | 0.8742 | 1.9442 | 7.61 | 9.5542 | T | T | -1.05 | 107.95 | 24 | 306.86769335362 | 7.8052415889778 | 0.43705418802677 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.89 | 20.61 | 25.75 | 26.322055724042 | 0.9568 | 1.9368 | 7.61 | 9.5468 | T | T | -1.11 | 108.89 | 24 | 307.52253778857 | 8.0946253760696 | 0.43487809671044 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.86 | 20.32 | 25.59 | 26.83068135262 | 1.0294 | 2.0094 | 7.61 | 9.6194 | T | T | -1.14 | 107.86 | 24 | 307.89743685355 | 8.261098017506 | 0.43379078600117 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.4 | 20.29 | 25.845 | 26.342963383165 | 1.016 | 2.086 | 7.62 | 9.706 | T | T | -0.6 | 108.4 | 24 | 307.53795800613 | 8.1014611666889 | 0.45343112811283 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.57 | 20.65 | 26.11 | 27.363745877587 | 1.0099 | 2.3499 | 7.62 | 9.9699 | T | T | -0.43 | 107.57 | 24 | 308.28982994619 | 8.435964563292 | 0.45964018773776 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.55 | 21.97 | 27.26 | 25.838579637156 | 1.1293 | 2.6393 | 7.15 | 9.7893 | T | T | 0.55 | 107.55 | 24 | 307.16572672596 | 7.9367260918138 | 0.49557887301435 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.91 | 21.61 | 26.26 | 27.468300559207 | 1.0937 | 2.7437 | 7.16 | 9.9037 | T | T | -1.09 | 100.91 | 24 | 308.36673118622 | 8.4703100546835 | 0.43560324471536 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.38 | 21.59 | 26.485 | 27.954567003909 | 1.0546 | 2.6946 | 7.17 | 9.8646 | T | T | -0.62 | 101.38 | 24 | 308.72411782932 | 8.6302490375825 | 0.45270136854252 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.29 | 21.09 | 26.19 | 29.369064367843 | 1.0194 | 2.6394 | 7.17 | 9.8094 | T | T | -0.71 | 99.29 | 24 | 309.76121151507 | 9.0973969596471 | 0.44941946220985 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.7 | 21.7 | 26.7 | 30.652864478903 | 1.0921 | 2.8021 | 7.53 | 10.3321 | T | T | -0.3 | 96.7 | 24 | 310.69925929225 | 9.5238222887809 | 0.46439502429262 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.47 | 21.71 | 26.59 | 30.186126014486 | 0.9127 | 2.2327 | 7.64 | 9.8727 | T | T | -0.53 | 94.47 | 24 | 310.35857640264 | 9.3685230969665 | 0.45598650913935 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.89 | 20.92 | 25.905 | 31.412144954893 | 1.0466 | 2.2066 | 7.61 | 9.8166 | T | T | -1.11 | 99.89 | 24 | 311.25261295381 | 9.7771121956944 | 0.43487809671044 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.1 | 20.76 | 26.43 | 30.082165580993 | 1.0665 | 1.9865 | 7.55 | 9.5365 | T | T | 0.1 | 98.1 | 24 | 310.28263833214 | 9.3339737032148 | 0.47905427277656 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.1 | 20.72 | 26.41 | 30.597252627407 | 1.0965 | 2.2265 | 7.51 | 9.7365 | T | T | 0.1 | 98.1 | 24 | 310.65868814394 | 9.5053023620389 | 0.47905427277656 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.97 | 21.85 | 27.41 | 31.643515896914 | 1.442 | 2.522 | 7.55 | 10.072 | T | T | 0.97 | 96.97 | 24 | 311.42102102871 | 9.8544560295553 | 0.51100925076596 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 33.07 | 21.87 | 27.47 | 30.227766439334 | 1.442 | 2.632 | 7.54 | 10.172 | T | T | 1.07 | 102.07 | 24 | 310.38898709587 | 9.3823658072756 | 0.51468158674793 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 33.36 | 20.75 | 27.055 | 34.037587667461 | 1.4176 | 2.8376 | 7.57 | 10.4076 | T | T | 1.36 | 91.36 | 24 | 313.1577971995 | 10.659135975927 | 0.5253232090336 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.57 | 21.44 | 26.505 | 32.036886943797 | 1.1506 | 2.8306 | 7.28 | 10.1106 | T | T | -0.43 | 94.57 | 24 | 311.70711711778 | 9.9861256706793 | 0.45964018773776 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.61 | 21.45 | 26.53 | 32.932974811483 | 1.1506 | 2.8506 | 7.27 | 10.1206 | T | T | -0.39 | 95.61 | 24 | 312.3577694582 | 10.286870553738 | 0.46110263160376 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.41 | 24.06 | 28.235 | 32.834872513849 | 1.1193 | 3.1193 | 7.15 | 10.2693 | T | T | 0.41 | 96.41 | 24 | 312.28660922654 | 10.253891001736 | 0.49043574356102 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.57 | 25.71 | 28.64 | 28.84456375202 | 0.7086 | 2.5986 | 7.02 | 9.6186 | T | T | -0.43 | 95.57 | 24 | 309.37708811234 | 8.9238471414707 | 0.45964018773776 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 33.46 | 25.41 | 29.435 | 29.60867119852 | 0.725 | 2.525 | 6.89 | 9.415 | T | T | 1.46 | 95.46 | 24 | 309.93651981886 | 9.1768085077304 | 0.5289889341266 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 33.48 | 25.42 | 29.45 | 28.105026599576 | 0.725 | 2.525 | 6.87 | 9.395 | T | T | 1.48 | 104.48 | 24 | 308.83461030189 | 8.6798049374043 | 0.52972179449543 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 30.14 | 25.34 | 27.74 | 35.121671180559 | 0.7865 | 3.9265 | 7 | 10.9265 | T | T | -1.86 | 106.14 | 24 | 313.94077690119 | 11.026124736493 | 0.40786392940842 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 32.12 | 25.11 | 28.615 | 32.147181315004 | 0.7857 | 3.8257 | 7.05 | 10.8757 | T | T | 0.12 | 108.12 | 24 | 311.78728216694 | 10.023082291533 | 0.47978814555845 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 29.74 | 26.49 | 28.115 | 29.133701452736 | 0.7095 | 3.5695 | 6.95 | 10.5195 | T | T | -2.26 | 103.74 | 24 | 309.58890436528 | 9.0194707128577 | 0.39362501873759 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 34.33 | 30.69 | 32.51 | 20.419993017992 | 0.0338 | 2.2438 | 7.13 | 9.3738 | T | T | 2.33 | 120.33 | 24 | 303.13662679187 | 6.1900478025875 | 0.56074387035023 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 31.8 | 30.49 | 31.145 | 20.162137597044 | 0.0214 | 2.2314 | 7.23 | 9.4614 | T | T | -0.2 | 117.8 | 24 | 302.94350746921 | 6.1079886817253 | 0.4680560900128 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 69 | 149 | 33.14 | 32.5 | 32.82 | 19.813009286765 | 0.0154 | 2.2154 | 7.26 | 9.4754 | T | T | 1.14 | 115.14 | 24 | 302.68182819853 | 5.9970378730324 | 0.51725149980917 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |