Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 6, 2021
[
Sunday, December 5, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Tuesday, December 7, 2021 ]
DAY 67
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2021 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.71°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.487
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.82 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.50 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-07 07:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.05994 | 21.36992 | 26.71493 | 42.854245 | 1.39 | 2.44 | 7.38 | 9.82 | T | T | 0.059939999999997 | 95.05994 | 26 | 321.57162867181 | 13.780709360151 | 0.48703409938278 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.05994 | 21.36992 | 26.71493 | 42.854245 | 1.39 | 2.44 | 7.38 | 9.82 | T | T | 0.059939999999997 | 95.05994 | 26 | 321.57162867181 | 13.780709360151 | 0.48703409938278 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.97 | 29.62 | 33.295 | 24.077356565314 | 0.3175 | 1.3675 | 7.38 | 8.7475 | T | T | 4.97 | 99.97 | 26 | 308.07328603342 | 7.4175903560745 | 0.69944288586924 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.68 | 28.27 | 30.475 | 24.799464309266 | 0.5391 | 1.5891 | 7.38 | 8.9691 | T | T | 0.68 | 95.68 | 26 | 308.60438555644 | 7.6532234452898 | 0.51500411942804 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.85 | 23 | 29.925 | 25.323450860237 | 0.7757 | 1.8257 | 7.38 | 9.2057 | T | T | 4.85 | 99.85 | 26 | 308.98916045472 | 7.8246718211209 | 0.69470334305209 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.76 | 24.68 | 30.72 | 21.780954846116 | 0.8882 | 1.9682 | 7.38 | 9.3482 | T | T | 4.76 | 103.76 | 26 | 306.3778274005 | 6.6732016244614 | 0.69112709959749 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.19 | 26.76 | 31.475 | 22.073126597843 | 0.9048 | 1.9848 | 7.38 | 9.3648 | T | T | 4.19 | 103.19 | 26 | 306.59409048574 | 6.7674901734422 | 0.6680668126004 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.5 | 25.65 | 31.075 | 21.993552808284 | 0.7912 | 1.8712 | 7.38 | 9.2512 | T | T | 4.5 | 103.5 | 26 | 306.53520653475 | 6.7417982525201 | 0.68069451079798 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.43 | 27.2 | 31.815 | 22.116723121606 | 0.8025 | 1.8825 | 7.38 | 9.2625 | T | T | 4.43 | 103.43 | 26 | 306.62634650929 | 6.7815700075357 | 0.67786067600891 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.7 | 27.56 | 31.63 | 21.66216590034 | 0.8011 | 1.8911 | 7.38 | 9.2711 | T | T | 3.7 | 102.7 | 26 | 306.28985491612 | 6.6349016507839 | 0.64771689856887 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.12 | 25.53 | 30.825 | 22.439556046482 | 1.0483 | 2.1383 | 7.38 | 9.5183 | T | T | 4.12 | 102.12 | 26 | 306.86509173365 | 6.885916424666 | 0.66518813250973 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.12 | 25.53 | 30.325 | 21.584688234042 | 1.2551 | 1.8751 | 7.38 | 9.2551 | T | T | 3.12 | 101.12 | 26 | 306.23246235436 | 6.6099322270618 | 0.62307558581978 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 30.78 | 24.8 | 27.79 | 23.081381565037 | 1.3766 | 2.0066 | 7.38 | 9.3866 | T | T | -1.22 | 96.78 | 26 | 307.33916102857 | 7.0938124455788 | 0.42965211285373 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 31.44 | 24.82 | 28.13 | 22.972248636244 | 1.3866 | 2.0266 | 7.38 | 9.4066 | T | T | -0.56 | 97.44 | 26 | 307.25860708582 | 7.0584211176013 | 0.4591331235673 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 31.04 | 25.1 | 28.07 | 24.120870981466 | 1.4068 | 2.0468 | 7.38 | 9.4268 | T | T | -0.96 | 97.04 | 26 | 308.10531782942 | 7.4317686200669 | 0.44122841228016 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 07:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.87 | 25.24 | 29.055 | 25.277784428911 | 1.4695 | 2.4695 | 7.38 | 9.8495 | T | T | 0.87 | 94.87 | 26 | 308.95564695248 | 7.8097142417594 | 0.52356634829486 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-04 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 29.01 | 24.48 | 26.745 | 25.331309281299 | 1.1958 | 2.3058 | 7.38 | 9.6858 | T | T | -2.99 | 94.01 | 26 | 308.99492717005 | 7.8272460664971 | 0.35292420151353 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.25 | 24.96 | 28.605 | 25.097335380682 | 1.0556 | 2.1356 | 7.38 | 9.5156 | T | T | 0.25 | 100.25 | 26 | 308.82318167461 | 7.7506389638168 | 0.49560702422457 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 26.66 | 23.33 | 24.995 | 24.450449569671 | 0.828 | 1.848 | 7.38 | 9.228 | T | T | -5.34 | 94.66 | 26 | 308.34781202616 | 7.5392426278641 | 0.26003849383688 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 29.94 | 22.37 | 26.155 | 24.713624253701 | 1.0069 | 1.9869 | 7.38 | 9.3669 | T | T | -2.06 | 94.94 | 26 | 308.54130247446 | 7.6251738161012 | 0.3927114008521 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 25.9 | 20.17 | 23.035 | 25.980558790114 | 0.9182 | 1.9382 | 7.38 | 9.3182 | T | T | -6.1 | 92.9 | 26 | 309.4709660964 | 8.0402286285009 | 0.23294131444159 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 30.8 | 20.18 | 25.49 | 24.465295466 | 1.0347 | 2.0447 | 7.38 | 9.4247 | T | T | -1.2 | 97.8 | 26 | 308.35873042118 | 7.5440874492748 | 0.43054058444925 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-03 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 30.46 | 20.13 | 25.295 | 26.435497221583 | 1.2609 | 2.3009 | 7.38 | 9.6809 | T | T | -1.54 | 91.46 | 26 | 309.80406593242 | 8.1898245241916 | 0.41548797512114 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 33.37 | 24.65 | 29.01 | 25.847858745021 | 1.6332 | 2.4232 | 7.34 | 9.7632 | T | T | 1.37 | 92.37 | 26 | 309.37373236426 | 7.9966485335714 | 0.54603640143859 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.74 | 23.14 | 27.94 | 26.582394968786 | 1.6379 | 2.4179 | 7.34 | 9.7579 | T | T | 0.74 | 92.74 | 26 | 309.91154031571 | 8.238190970057 | 0.51770891626234 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 31.99 | 25.07 | 28.53 | 27.094821990493 | 1.9393 | 2.5993 | 7.34 | 9.9393 | T | T | -0.010000000000002 | 92.99 | 26 | 310.28613207959 | 8.407147514815 | 0.48388065428277 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 30.45 | 24.84 | 27.645 | 25.26061706001 | 1.7753 | 2.3053 | 7.34 | 9.6453 | T | T | -1.55 | 91.45 | 26 | 308.94304722545 | 7.8040920093147 | 0.41504700985004 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 29.12 | 26.19 | 27.655 | 26.401526573615 | 1.7043 | 2.1043 | 7.34 | 9.4443 | T | T | -2.88 | 89.12 | 26 | 309.77920637381 | 8.1786439490313 | 0.35755679321144 | 94 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2021-12-02 03:00:20 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 34.89 | 26.21 | 30.55 | 24.76734703245 | 1.7043 | 2.0843 | 7.34 | 9.4243 | T | T | 2.89 | 97.89 | 26 | 308.58078446997 | 7.6427273765135 | 0.61315692823308 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.36 | 27.69 | 32.025 | 28.359584868155 | 2.5697 | 3.0397 | 7.38 | 10.4197 | T | T | 4.36 | 107.36 | 26 | 311.20860845148 | 8.82574694308 | 0.67501647132671 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.55 | 27.71 | 32.13 | 27.00421210201 | 2.5102 | 3.0302 | 7.38 | 10.4102 | T | T | 4.55 | 105.55 | 26 | 310.21993038408 | 8.3772447983624 | 0.68271225263295 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 32.42 | 30.26 | 31.34 | 22.562915041054 | 2.3305 | 2.7405 | 7.39 | 10.1305 | T | T | 0.42 | 102.42 | 26 | 306.95626795382 | 6.9258281951608 | 0.50327695184568 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 37.06 | 30.76 | 33.91 | 20.539177747393 | 2.149 | 2.749 | 7.38 | 10.129 | T | T | 5.06 | 110.06 | 26 | 305.45688166359 | 6.2738331866527 | 0.7029756072242 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 37.1 | 30.79 | 33.945 | 20.287891888223 | 2.149 | 2.839 | 7.39 | 10.229 | T | T | 5.1 | 110.1 | 26 | 305.27016555921 | 6.1932881155654 | 0.70453959174792 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-12-01 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.42 | 30.48 | 33.45 | 20.102633286765 | 2.1444 | 2.8344 | 7.42 | 10.2544 | T | T | 4.42 | 106.42 | 26 | 305.1324341841 | 6.1339654283007 | 0.67745499268568 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.63 | 26.09 | 30.86 | 19.059659339872 | 0.375 | 1.115 | 7.43 | 8.545 | T | T | 3.63 | 112.63 | 26 | 304.35581963574 | 5.8009182403646 | 0.64477325828282 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.54 | 25.79 | 30.665 | 17.466634639254 | 0.7487 | 1.4187 | 7.44 | 8.8587 | T | T | 3.54 | 116.54 | 26 | 303.1656506291 | 5.2952836547103 | 0.64097587560064 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.89 | 25.45 | 30.67 | 16.943844424522 | 0.7487 | 1.2987 | 7.39 | 8.6887 | T | T | 3.89 | 119.89 | 26 | 302.77401670998 | 5.1301558349216 | 0.65566187835326 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.12 | 28.07 | 32.095 | 15.846146918584 | 1.5504 | 1.9104 | 7.38 | 9.2904 | T | T | 4.12 | 121.12 | 26 | 301.95001251773 | 4.7847442604242 | 0.66518813250973 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 10:16:43 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.12 | 28.07 | 32.095 | 15.846146918584 | 1.5504 | 1.9104 | 7.38 | 9.2904 | T | T | 4.12 | 121.12 | 26 | 301.95001251773 | 4.7847442604242 | 0.66518813250973 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
2021-11-30 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.11 | 28.08 | 32.095 | 27.874818652295 | 1.5504 | 1.9104 | 7.55 | 9.4604 | T | T | 4.11 | 122.11 | 26 | 310.85538614916 | 8.665037515997 | 0.66477609446905 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-30 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.16 | 25.5 | 30.33 | 27.94381025 | 1.7503 | 2.0603 | 7.5 | 9.5603 | T | T | 3.16 | 116.16 | 26 | 310.90568305501 | 8.687889412936 | 0.62479251745719 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 37.34 | 26.09 | 31.715 | 19.016621333333 | 1.6565 | 2.1465 | 7.44 | 9.5865 | T | T | 5.34 | 114.34 | 26 | 304.32372864859 | 5.7872091104584 | 0.71384302697206 | 94 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.05 | 30.09 | 32.57 | 18.672604 | 2.1232 | 2.4132 | 7.44 | 9.8532 | T | T | 3.05 | 121.05 | 26 | 304.06708841024 | 5.6777243313175 | 0.62006511211266 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.08 | 31.42 | 33.25 | 18.652596 | 1.7601 | 2.0501 | 7.38 | 9.4301 | T | T | 3.08 | 121.08 | 26 | 304.0521553482 | 5.6713620166393 | 0.6213562178472 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.95 | 32.48 | 34.215 | 18.086085333333 | 0.7172 | 1.1072 | 7.36 | 8.4672 | T | T | 3.95 | 127.95 | 26 | 303.62902242692 | 5.4914604092898 | 0.65815682305514 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 35.97 | 32.22 | 34.095 | 17.617656166667 | 0.5087 | 0.8987 | 7.54 | 8.4387 | T | T | 3.97 | 120.97 | 26 | 303.27868747587 | 5.3430596386278 | 0.6589869461536 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
2021-11-29 03:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 67 | 147 | 36.19 | 35.13 | 35.66 | 17.806638833333 | 0.0791 | 0.1591 | 7.72 | 7.8791 | T | T | 4.19 | 120.19 | 26 | 303.42007647476 | 5.4028917165685 | 0.6680668126004 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |