MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 6, 2021

[ Sunday, December 5, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 7, 2021 ]

DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2021 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.487
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-07 07:00:11OBSERVATION20226714732.0599421.3699226.7149342.8542451.392.447.389.82TT0.05993999999999795.0599426321.57162867181 13.7807093601510.4870340993827894 23151215WETL
2021-12-07 03:00:07OBSERVATION20226714732.0599421.3699226.7149342.8542451.392.447.389.82TT0.05993999999999795.0599426321.57162867181 13.7807093601510.4870340993827894 23151215WETL
2021-12-06 11:00:01FORECAST20226714736.9729.6233.29524.0773565653140.31751.36757.388.7475TT4.9799.9726308.073286033427.41759035607450.699442885869249443142232WETL
2021-12-06 07:00:03FORECAST20226714732.6828.2730.47524.7994643092660.53911.58917.388.9691TT0.6895.6826308.604385556447.65322344528980.515004119428049433152235WETL
2021-12-06 03:00:05FORECAST20226714736.852329.92525.3234508602370.77571.82577.389.2057TT4.8599.8526308.989160454727.82467182112090.694703343052099433152235WETL
2021-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20226714736.7624.6830.7221.7809548461160.88821.96827.389.3482TT4.76103.7626306.37782740056.67320162446140.691127099597499433152235WETL
2021-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20226714736.1926.7631.47522.0731265978430.90481.98487.389.3648TT4.19103.1926306.594090485746.76749017344220.66806681260049433152235WETL
2021-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20226714736.525.6531.07521.9935528082840.79121.87127.389.2512TT4.5103.526306.535206534756.74179825252010.680694510797989433152235WETL
2021-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20226714736.4327.231.81522.1167231216060.80251.88257.389.2625TT4.43103.4326306.626346509296.78157000753570.677860676008919433152235WETL
2021-12-05 07:00:16FORECAST20226714735.727.5631.6321.662165900340.80111.89117.389.2711TT3.7102.726306.289854916126.63490165078390.647716898568879433152235WETL
2021-12-05 03:00:09FORECAST20226714736.1225.5330.82522.4395560464821.04832.13837.389.5183TT4.12102.1226306.865091733656.8859164246660.665188132509739433152235WETL
2021-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20226714735.1225.5330.32521.5846882340421.25511.87517.389.2551TT3.12101.1226306.232462354366.60993222706180.623075585819789433152235WETL
2021-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20226714730.7824.827.7923.0813815650371.37662.00667.389.3866TT-1.2296.7826307.339161028577.09381244557880.429652112853739423152230WETL
2021-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20226714731.4424.8228.1322.9722486362441.38662.02667.389.4066TT-0.5697.4426307.258607085827.05842111760130.45913312356739423152230WETL
2021-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20226714731.0425.128.0724.1208709814661.40682.04687.389.4268TT-0.9697.0426308.105317829427.43176862006690.441228412280169423152230WETL
2021-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20226714732.8725.2429.05525.2777844289111.46952.46957.389.8495TT0.8794.8726308.955646952487.80971424175940.523566348294869433152235WETL
2021-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20226714729.0124.4826.74525.3313092812991.19582.30587.389.6858TT-2.9994.0126308.994927170057.82724606649710.352924201513539423152230WETL
2021-12-03 23:00:01FORECAST20226714732.2524.9628.60525.0973353806821.05562.13567.389.5156TT0.25100.2526308.823181674617.75063896381680.495607024224579423152230WETL
2021-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20226714726.6623.3324.99524.4504495696710.8281.8487.389.228TT-5.3494.6626308.347812026167.53924262786410.260038493836889423152230WETL
2021-12-03 15:00:04FORECAST20226714729.9422.3726.15524.7136242537011.00691.98697.389.3669TT-2.0694.9426308.541302474467.62517381610120.39271140085219423152230WETL
2021-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20226714725.920.1723.03525.9805587901140.91821.93827.389.3182TT-6.192.926309.47096609648.04022862850090.232941314441599413152225WETL
2021-12-03 07:00:17FORECAST20226714730.820.1825.4924.4652954661.03472.04477.389.4247TT-1.297.826308.358730421187.54408744927480.430540584449259423152230WETL
2021-12-03 03:00:07FORECAST20226714730.4620.1325.29526.4354972215831.26092.30097.389.6809TT-1.5491.4626309.804065932428.18982452419160.415487975121149423152230WETL
2021-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20226714733.3724.6529.0125.8478587450211.63322.42327.349.7632TT1.3792.3726309.373732364267.99664853357140.546036401438599433152235WETL
2021-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20226714732.7423.1427.9426.5823949687861.63792.41797.349.7579TT0.7492.7426309.911540315718.2381909700570.517708916262349433152235WETL
2021-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20226714731.9925.0728.5327.0948219904931.93932.59937.349.9393TT-0.01000000000000292.9926310.286132079598.4071475148150.483880654282779423152230WETL
2021-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20226714730.4524.8427.64525.260617060011.77532.30537.349.6453TT-1.5591.4526308.943047225457.80409200931470.415047009850049423152230WETL
2021-12-02 07:00:08FORECAST20226714729.1226.1927.65526.4015265736151.70432.10437.349.4443TT-2.8889.1226309.779206373818.17864394903130.357556793211449423152230WETL
2021-12-02 03:00:20FORECAST20226714734.8926.2130.5524.767347032451.70432.08437.349.4243TT2.8997.8926308.580784469977.64272737651350.613156928233089433152235WETL
2021-12-01 23:00:05FORECAST20226714736.3627.6932.02528.3595848681552.56973.03977.3810.4197TT4.36107.3626311.208608451488.825746943080.675016471326719433152235WETL
2021-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20226714736.5527.7132.1327.004212102012.51023.03027.3810.4102TT4.55105.5526310.219930384088.37724479836240.682712252632959433152235WETL
2021-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20226714732.4230.2631.3422.5629150410542.33052.74057.3910.1305TT0.42102.4226306.956267953826.92582819516080.503276951845689433152235WETL
2021-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20226714737.0630.7633.9120.5391777473932.1492.7497.3810.129TT5.06110.0626305.456881663596.27383318665270.70297560722429443152240WETL
2021-12-01 07:00:07FORECAST20226714737.130.7933.94520.2878918882232.1492.8397.3910.229TT5.1110.126305.270165559216.19328811556540.704539591747929443152240WETL
2021-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20226714736.4230.4833.4520.1026332867652.14442.83447.4210.2544TT4.42106.4226305.13243418416.13396542830070.677454992685689433152235WETL
2021-11-30 23:00:07FORECAST20226714735.6326.0930.8619.0596593398720.3751.1157.438.545TT3.63112.6326304.355819635745.80091824036460.644773258282829433142228WETL
2021-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20226714735.5425.7930.66517.4666346392540.74871.41877.448.8587TT3.54116.5426303.16565062915.29528365471030.640975875600649433142228WETL
2021-11-30 15:00:06FORECAST20226714735.8925.4530.6716.9438444245220.74871.29877.398.6887TT3.89119.8926302.774016709985.13015583492160.655661878353269433142228WETL
2021-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20226714736.1228.0732.09515.8461469185841.55041.91047.389.2904TT4.12121.1226301.950012517734.78474426042420.665188132509739433153252.5WETH
2021-11-30 10:16:43FORECAST20226714736.1228.0732.09515.8461469185841.55041.91047.389.2904TT4.12121.1226301.950012517734.78474426042420.665188132509739433153252.5WETH
2021-11-30 07:00:16FORECAST20226714736.1128.0832.09527.8748186522951.55041.91047.559.4604TT4.11122.1126310.855386149168.6650375159970.664776094469059433152235WETL
2021-11-30 03:00:14FORECAST20226714735.1625.530.3327.943810251.75032.06037.59.5603TT3.16116.1626310.905683055018.6878894129360.624792517457199433152235WETL
2021-11-29 23:00:05FORECAST20226714737.3426.0931.71519.0166213333331.65652.14657.449.5865TT5.34114.3426304.323728648595.78720911045840.713843026972069443152240WETL
2021-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20226714735.0530.0932.5718.6726042.12322.41327.449.8532TT3.05121.0526304.067088410245.67772433131750.620065112112669433152235WETL
2021-11-29 15:00:05FORECAST20226714735.0831.4233.2518.6525961.76012.05017.389.4301TT3.08121.0826304.05215534825.67136201663930.62135621784729433152235WETL
2021-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20226714735.9532.4834.21518.0860853333330.71721.10727.368.4672TT3.95127.9526303.629022426925.49146040928980.658156823055149433142228WETL
2021-11-29 07:00:12FORECAST20226714735.9732.2234.09517.6176561666670.50870.89877.548.4387TT3.97120.9726303.278687475875.34305963862780.65898694615369433132221WETL
2021-11-29 03:00:18FORECAST20226714736.1935.1335.6617.8066388333330.07910.15917.727.8791TT4.19120.1926303.420076474765.40289171656850.66806681260049433122214WETL