Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 5, 2021

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DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2021 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.26°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.237 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 98 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.06 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 24 in SWE DAY: 27 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.97 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.35 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-06 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	66	146	27.26006	18.87008	23.06507	23.800805416667	0	1.05	8.06	9.11	T	T	-4.73994	98.26006	27	308.96965270191	7.3537265836131	0.23723563081062	91	1	3	1	4	2	2	20	WET	L
2021-12-06 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	66	146	27.26006	18.87008	23.06507	23.800805416667	0	1.05	8.06	9.11	T	T	-4.73994	98.26006	27	308.96965270191	7.3537265836131	0.23723563081062	91	1	3	1	4	2	2	20	WET	L
2021-12-05 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	66	146	30.78	22.45	26.615	20.096262741233	0.0277	1.0777	8.06	9.1377	T	T	-1.22	101.78	27	306.23812043045	6.1542417295517	0.36954665714151	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-05 07:00:14	FORECAST	2022	66	146	30.59	19.62	25.105	19.716190822573	0.0379	1.0879	8.06	9.1479	T	T	-1.41	101.59	27	305.95641915253	6.0322951434023	0.36178876366377	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-05 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	66	146	30.33	19.22	24.775	19.758162776464	0.0419	1.0919	8.06	9.1519	T	T	-1.67	101.33	27	305.98754123755	6.0457516473413	0.35126460368627	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-04 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.85	18.76	24.305	18.070318694155	0.0183	0.6183	8.06	8.6783	T	T	-2.15	100.85	27	304.73338990849	5.5066294723964	0.332136851593	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-04 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.77	18.4	24.085	18.108719695082	0.0268	0.6268	8.06	8.6868	T	T	-2.23	100.77	27	304.76198355779	5.5188493339653	0.32898932434776	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-04 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.83	20.69	25.26	18.12331498894	0.035	0.635	8.06	8.695	T	T	-2.17	100.83	27	304.7728505825	5.523494371184	0.33134884858312	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-04 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.83	20.72	25.275	19.125577693285	0.0361	0.6361	8.06	8.6961	T	T	-2.17	100.83	27	305.51812917464	5.8432107162367	0.33134884858312	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-04 07:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.84	21.23	25.535	19.928178016023	0.0348	1.0048	8.06	9.0648	T	T	-2.16	96.84	27	306.11357312205	6.100285778297	0.33174275709196	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-04 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.67	21.14	25.405	20.470652288237	0.0264	1.1064	8.06	9.1664	T	T	-2.33	99.67	27	306.5153443004	6.2745690341828	0.32507191184203	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-03 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.65	20.84	25.245	20.65965273812	0.0263	1.0763	8.06	9.1363	T	T	-2.35	102.65	27	306.65519318049	6.3353898014499	0.32429072508405	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-03 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.48	21.6	25.54	20.774299414424	0.0406	1.0206	8.06	9.0806	T	T	-2.52	103.48	27	306.73999206576	6.372308437552	0.31768210175716	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-03 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.32	21.3	25.31	20.427509830806	0.0348	0.9848	8.06	9.0448	T	T	-2.68	100.32	27	306.48341208357	6.2606929133162	0.3115147513696	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-03 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.27	20.67	24.97	21.450911368676	0.0491	1.0191	8.06	9.0791	T	T	-2.73	102.27	27	307.23994828034	6.5905768994782	0.30959813322253	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-03 07:00:16	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.55	20.48	25.015	20.25268659233	0.0667	1.0067	8.06	9.0667	T	T	-2.45	101.55	27	306.35397951358	6.2044911334018	0.32039643037336	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-03 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.55	20.8	25.175	20.455072095136	0.0961	1.0361	8.06	9.0961	T	T	-2.45	95.55	27	306.50381290606	6.2695575904274	0.32039643037336	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-12-02 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.61	20.29	24.95	19.726844770319	0.0441	0.7941	8.02	8.8141	T	T	-2.39	93.61	27	305.96431933884	6.0357106328535	0.32273067069799	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-02 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	31.23	18.77	25	19.781018952185	0.0459	0.7759	8.02	8.7959	T	T	-0.77	95.23	27	306.00448763186	6.0530805692994	0.38812842694235	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-02 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	31.5	19.27	25.385	19.587335846676	0.1365	0.6565	8.02	8.6765	T	T	-0.5	96.5	27	305.86085282135	5.9909992465625	0.39940476863129	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-02 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	31.71	19.81	25.76	18.773068814573	0.0152	0.5252	8.02	8.5452	T	T	-0.29	95.71	27	305.25622123773	5.7305960473725	0.40823417001925	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-02 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	66	146	31.87	21.08	26.475	18.544458195149	0.0332	0.4032	8.02	8.4232	T	T	-0.13	94.87	27	305.08624214369	5.6576590633488	0.41499299846092	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-12-02 03:00:19	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.03	21.03	26.53	18.460886804504	0.0332	0.3832	8.02	8.4032	T	T	0.030000000000001	98.03	27	305.02407957978	5.6310150057703	0.4217770774046	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-12-01 23:00:05	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.64	20.07	26.355	21.47409973249	0.0981	0.4681	8.06	8.5281	T	T	0.64	105.64	27	307.257067201	6.5980689045867	0.44783795033775	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-12-01 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.66	20.09	26.375	21.638417320484	0.0981	0.5181	8.06	8.5781	T	T	0.66	103.66	27	307.37834656429	6.6511809382387	0.44869686756531	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	33.63	19.59	26.61	21.031581665548	0.0452	0.4052	8.07	8.4752	T	T	1.63	104.63	27	306.93020207595	6.4552276105835	0.49056671958277	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-12-01 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	33.26	20.39	26.825	20.537476930935	0.0198	0.5998	8.06	8.6598	T	T	1.26	108.26	27	306.56479815905	6.2960674700281	0.4745582202412	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-01 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.3	21.03	26.665	20.283786609061	0.0207	0.6907	8.07	8.7607	T	T	0.3	108.3	27	306.37700900271	6.2144858725334	0.43327699813666	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-12-01 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.31	21.04	26.675	19.457239235659	0.0154	0.6854	8.1	8.7854	T	T	0.31	105.31	27	305.76433388464	5.9493297941254	0.43370407073517	91	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-11-30 23:00:07	FORECAST	2022	66	146	39.33	20.97	30.15	17.615660446966	0.0595	0.7395	8.11	8.8495	T	T	7.33	112.33	27	304.39463617694	5.3621125527709	0.72413733185155	91	4	3	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-30 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.08	27.17	34.125	16.285580155478	0.0454	0.6754	8.11	8.7854	T	T	9.08	116.08	27	303.40137963309	4.9410674872973	0.78383205612106	91	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-30 15:00:06	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.16	29.14	35.15	15.982606649025	0.0464	0.5464	8.07	8.6164	T	T	9.16	119.16	27	303.17466019767	4.8455213398912	0.78636985287372	91	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-30 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	44.28	31.26	37.77	14.084168855547	0.1102	0.3602	8.06	8.4202	T	T	12.28	120.28	27	301.7500531894	4.2498987012897	0.87135897485619	91	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	H
2021-11-30 10:16:43	FORECAST	2022	66	146	44.28	31.26	37.77	14.084168855547	0.1102	0.3602	8.06	8.4202	T	T	12.28	120.28	27	301.7500531894	4.2498987012897	0.87135897485619	91	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	H
2021-11-30 07:00:16	FORECAST	2022	66	146	44.34	31.53	37.935	27.876023583333	0.1102	0.3602	8.23	8.5902	T	T	12.34	121.34	27	311.94496101614	8.695785089988	0.87272347154099	91	5	3	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-11-30 03:00:14	FORECAST	2022	66	146	43.9	30	36.95	28.033572916667	0.1317	0.3117	8.18	8.4917	T	T	11.9	115.9	27	312.05937026816	8.7481391107415	0.86248229518874	91	5	3	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2021-11-29 23:00:05	FORECAST	2022	66	146	38.34	24.95	31.645	19.095888	0.2062	0.4862	8.12	8.6062	T	T	6.34	112.34	27	305.49607929395	5.8337189146364	0.68711548904353	91	3	3	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2021-11-29 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.72	26.45	34.085	18.798774666667	0.0179	0.2879	8.12	8.4079	T	T	9.72	120.72	27	305.27532816449	5.738802105457	0.8036433083854	91	4	3	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2021-11-29 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.69	26.55	34.12	18.791996	0.0179	0.2879	8.06	8.3479	T	T	9.69	120.69	27	305.27028976414	5.7366380641665	0.80273992412724	91	4	3	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2021-11-29 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.24	32.9	37.07	18.213841333333	0.145	0.385	8.04	8.425	T	T	9.24	127.24	27	304.8402435865	5.5523118286993	0.78889023946064	91	4	3	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2021-11-29 07:00:12	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.48	33.18	37.33	17.730542833333	0.145	0.385	8.22	8.605	T	T	9.48	120.48	27	304.48026891784	5.3986004499527	0.79634626560978	91	4	3	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2021-11-29 03:00:18	FORECAST	2022	66	146	41.3	29.53	35.415	17.8903335	0.0045	0.0845	8.4	8.4845	T	T	9.3	119.3	27	304.59933451922	5.4493836784269	0.790769062471	91	4	3	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2021-11-28 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.65	22.39	27.52	20.715020970459	0.0259	1.0459	8.9	9.9459	T	T	0.65	103.65	27	306.69614960419	6.35321717061	0.4482673786389	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-28 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.69	22.1	27.395	20.562185318034	0.0185	1.0385	8.8	9.8385	T	T	0.69	106.69	27	306.58308157959	6.3040181388135	0.44998569311889	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-28 15:00:07	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.67	23.37	28.02	19.249046666667	0.022	1.122	8.68	9.802	T	T	0.67	110.67	27	305.60980902512	5.8826974757156	0.44912641661937	91	2	3	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-28 11:00:07	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.26	25.34	28.8	18.924982666667	0.0112	0.2612	8.8	9.0612	T	T	0.26	117.26	27	305.36911932989	5.7791052902534	0.43156949156981	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-11-28 07:00:16	FORECAST	2022	66	146	32.28	25.41	28.845	18.990469916667	0.0112	0.2612	9.02	9.2812	T	T	0.28	118.28	27	305.41777417222	5.8000270524328	0.43242308711062	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2021-11-28 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	66	146	29.08	28.04	28.56	19.374448583333	0.0044	0.1844	9.02	9.2044	T	T	-2.92	104.08	27	305.7028947249	5.9228250156237	0.30236239493987	91	2	3	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L