Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 8, 2021
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Sunday, November 7, 2021 |
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Tuesday, November 9, 2021 ]
DAY 39
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2021 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.03°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.259
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.89 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.14 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.17 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-09 07:00:04 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.47006 | 22.58006 | 28.02506 | 28.5530925 | 0.0099999999999909 | 1.89 | 11.25 | 13.14 | T | T | 1.47006 | 87.47006 | 54 | 340.27247581588 | 9.7158314771747 | 0.25924833254974 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 03:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.47006 | 22.58006 | 28.02506 | 28.5530925 | 0.0099999999999909 | 1.89 | 11.25 | 13.14 | T | T | 1.47006 | 87.47006 | 54 | 340.27247581588 | 9.7158314771747 | 0.25924833254974 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 37.36 | 28.42 | 32.89 | 32.95702961619 | 0.0173 | 1.8973 | 11.25 | 13.1473 | T | T | 5.36 | 91.36 | 54 | 343.13823927498 | 11.308817114233 | 0.39853197574124 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 37.49 | 26.62 | 32.055 | 32.704538049064 | 0.0331 | 1.9131 | 11.25 | 13.1631 | T | T | 5.49 | 91.49 | 54 | 342.97480087336 | 11.216832425033 | 0.40355138411345 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-08 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 37.44 | 25.31 | 31.375 | 32.762378774646 | 0.0565 | 1.9365 | 11.25 | 13.1865 | T | T | 5.44 | 91.44 | 54 | 343.01225057087 | 11.237897277547 | 0.40161891336076 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 37.33 | 23.82 | 30.575 | 9.4083697744206 | 0.1369 | 1.8269 | 11.25 | 13.0769 | T | T | 5.33 | 95.33 | 54 | 327.43507224398 | 3.0806302367855 | 0.3973759973064 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 37.1 | 23.27 | 30.185 | 9.2729196695771 | 0.1027 | 1.7927 | 11.25 | 13.0427 | T | T | 5.1 | 95.1 | 54 | 327.34200459809 | 3.0354161131164 | 0.38854412040677 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.91 | 24.78 | 30.845 | 9.4940634519822 | 0.1673 | 1.8573 | 11.25 | 13.1073 | T | T | 4.91 | 94.91 | 54 | 327.49393575873 | 3.1092482062327 | 0.38129120278298 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.95 | 26.25 | 31.6 | 12.069564503353 | 0.2009 | 1.8909 | 11.25 | 13.1409 | T | T | 4.95 | 94.95 | 54 | 329.25709737065 | 3.9739897749017 | 0.38281476818158 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.34 | 25.4 | 30.87 | 13.363321339128 | 0.266 | 2.056 | 11.25 | 13.306 | T | T | 4.34 | 93.34 | 54 | 330.13844727971 | 4.4117461573995 | 0.35979042709637 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.05 | 27.14 | 31.595 | 13.194226112163 | 0.2708 | 2.0508 | 11.25 | 13.3008 | T | T | 4.05 | 94.05 | 54 | 330.02341848959 | 4.3544036058607 | 0.34901452274122 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.37 | 24.64 | 30.505 | 11.092902044777 | 0.37 | 1.3 | 11.25 | 12.55 | T | T | 4.37 | 91.37 | 54 | 328.58984154261 | 3.6450149251408 | 0.36091173597432 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.37 | 26.58 | 31.475 | 8.6987773902126 | 0.3207 | 1.6407 | 11.25 | 12.8907 | T | T | 4.37 | 91.37 | 54 | 326.94715624835 | 2.8440405305675 | 0.36091173597432 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.67 | 25.74 | 30.705 | 9.3467448644346 | 0.3592 | 1.8592 | 11.25 | 13.1092 | T | T | 3.67 | 90.67 | 54 | 327.39273379337 | 3.0600563532364 | 0.33507770686048 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.59 | 25.76 | 30.675 | 11.664837968576 | 0.4049 | 1.9149 | 11.25 | 13.1649 | T | T | 3.59 | 91.59 | 54 | 328.98078901762 | 3.8375075986647 | 0.33217155129565 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.71 | 27.11 | 31.41 | 12.026312513236 | 0.3965 | 2.0565 | 11.25 | 13.3065 | T | T | 3.71 | 95.71 | 54 | 329.2275826254 | 3.9593937966302 | 0.33653450686517 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.56 | 27.17 | 31.365 | 12.843405343401 | 0.4695 | 2.2295 | 11.25 | 13.4795 | T | T | 3.56 | 94.56 | 54 | 329.78461136932 | 4.2355574398321 | 0.33108432631877 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 34.04 | 27.48 | 30.76 | 13.243399529583 | 0.4685 | 2.5085 | 10.98 | 13.4885 | T | T | 2.04 | 86.04 | 54 | 330.0568743139 | 4.3710750540244 | 0.27801912640623 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 34.57 | 27.02 | 30.795 | 14.410032851303 | 0.5322 | 2.7722 | 11.05 | 13.8222 | T | T | 2.57 | 90.57 | 54 | 330.84938530759 | 4.767550511116 | 0.29604862223688 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.99 | 26.96 | 30.475 | 13.192593230163 | 0.4872 | 2.3372 | 11.05 | 13.3872 | T | T | 1.99 | 89.99 | 54 | 330.02230746373 | 4.3538500592488 | 0.27634624593644 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.83 | 26.75 | 29.79 | 14.092664702037 | 0.4374 | 2.4274 | 11.05 | 13.4774 | T | T | 0.83 | 89.83 | 54 | 330.63402498391 | 4.6595144531832 | 0.23897605849124 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.97 | 26.78 | 29.875 | 17.162556010154 | 0.5968 | 2.8168 | 11.37 | 14.1868 | T | T | 0.97 | 92.97 | 54 | 332.70993382521 | 5.7101528744098 | 0.24333492690085 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.94 | 25.19 | 29.065 | 17.397064452254 | 0.6958 | 2.8058 | 11.51 | 14.3158 | T | T | 0.94 | 90.94 | 54 | 332.86784763532 | 5.7909233993947 | 0.24239728726474 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 29.07 | 24.06 | 26.565 | 19.637116499285 | 0.4569 | 2.5369 | 9.64 | 12.1769 | T | T | -2.93 | 81.07 | 54 | 334.37152778129 | 6.5660926450851 | 0.13888936917145 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.45 | 23.59 | 28.52 | 17.649533970566 | 0.2149 | 2.2849 | 10.68 | 12.9649 | T | T | 1.45 | 93.45 | 54 | 333.03775100351 | 5.8779610998175 | 0.2585997811261 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.46 | 22.95 | 28.205 | 17.674465531264 | 0.2393 | 2.1793 | 10.65 | 12.8293 | T | T | 1.46 | 90.46 | 54 | 333.05452318271 | 5.8865606900245 | 0.25892298202132 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.76 | 24.28 | 28.52 | 18.961856618469 | 0.3444 | 2.2844 | 10.7 | 12.9844 | T | T | 0.76 | 92.76 | 54 | 333.91914641891 | 6.3317269765569 | 0.23681271316503 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 29.21 | 24.67 | 26.94 | 19.158610702561 | 0.4007 | 2.2107 | 10.98 | 13.1907 | T | T | -2.79 | 87.21 | 54 | 334.05103930918 | 6.3999538169104 | 0.14201120246374 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 29.22 | 24.67 | 26.945 | 19.819998867866 | 0.4007 | 2.3207 | 11.02 | 13.3407 | T | T | -2.78 | 89.22 | 54 | 334.49391392003 | 6.6296689952029 | 0.14223598893984 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.37 | 24.01 | 28.69 | 16.89122379944 | 0.988 | 2.558 | 11.28 | 13.838 | T | T | 1.37 | 88.37 | 54 | 332.52710612994 | 5.6167897690209 | 0.2560217039759 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.5 | 24.44 | 28.97 | 18.553711705636 | 0.9361 | 2.7461 | 11.2 | 13.9461 | T | T | 1.5 | 96.5 | 54 | 333.64533871296 | 6.1903594264095 | 0.26021786920164 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 33.44 | 23.87 | 28.655 | 18.435146816867 | 1.1329 | 2.7629 | 11.2 | 13.9629 | T | T | 1.44 | 100.44 | 54 | 333.56574516428 | 6.1493334851814 | 0.25827678896519 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.17 | 25.2 | 30.685 | 18.400033857865 | 0.8602 | 2.6402 | 11.18 | 13.8202 | T | T | 4.17 | 94.17 | 54 | 333.54216895601 | 6.1371872018164 | 0.35345935975955 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:49:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.18 | 24.6 | 30.39 | 18.931572942922 | 0.8602 | 2.7902 | 11.23 | 14.0202 | T | T | 4.18 | 99.18 | 54 | 333.89884008921 | 6.3212302467059 | 0.35383067608926 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.19 | 22.85 | 29.52 | 56.860041374069 | 0.8391 | 2.8591 | 11.27 | 14.1291 | T | T | 4.19 | 98.19 | 54 | 358.14557101911 | 20.364171986086 | 0.3542021314408 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 36.19 | 21.44 | 28.815 | 55.52973634122 | 0.7911 | 2.7311 | 11.37 | 14.1011 | T | T | 4.19 | 93.19 | 54 | 357.3340766119 | 19.842667059992 | 0.3542021314408 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 31.89 | 24.5 | 28.195 | 49.318506908684 | 0.3962 | 1.7562 | 10.71 | 12.4662 | T | T | -0.11 | 103.89 | 54 | 353.50868651385 | 17.434520598113 | 0.21084125593104 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.36 | 21.61 | 26.985 | 49.821880024788 | 0.4108 | 1.4808 | 10.96 | 12.4408 | T | T | 0.36 | 108.36 | 54 | 353.82095768462 | 17.628025304019 | 0.2246593213871 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 32.47 | 21.31 | 26.89 | 49.427787108217 | 0.4108 | 1.3708 | 10.95 | 12.3208 | T | T | 0.47 | 103.47 | 54 | 353.57651321405 | 17.47650462161 | 0.2279658425915 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 34.97 | 22.46 | 28.715 | 50.77743268969 | 0.159 | 1.199 | 11.51 | 12.709 | T | T | 2.97 | 106.97 | 54 | 354.41264451499 | 17.996164201235 | 0.31000082991475 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.77 | 27.01 | 31.39 | 50.68321656885 | 0.238 | 1.158 | 11.46 | 12.618 | T | T | 3.77 | 103.77 | 54 | 354.35436883969 | 17.95981921802 | 0.33872430614879 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 35.75 | 25.12 | 30.435 | 50.996156688354 | 0.238 | 1.178 | 11.47 | 12.648 | T | T | 3.75 | 109.75 | 54 | 354.54787852744 | 18.080579166909 | 0.33799376300636 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 28.68 | 23.19 | 25.935 | 19.213678340769 | 1.1424 | 1.6724 | 10.1 | 11.7724 | T | T | -3.32 | 106.68 | 54 | 334.08794175765 | 6.4190582504609 | 0.1304399169857 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 31.87 | 24.39 | 28.13 | 21.795169595845 | 0.9547 | 1.7047 | 10.35 | 12.0547 | T | T | -0.13 | 113.87 | 54 | 335.8120953973 | 7.3190815715204 | 0.21026450384225 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 31.87 | 24.76 | 28.315 | 20.04549673661 | 0.7985 | 1.4985 | 10.29 | 11.7885 | T | T | -0.13 | 113.87 | 54 | 334.64474039987 | 6.7081200516093 | 0.21026450384225 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 27.72 | 23.94 | 25.83 | 17.991437840911 | 0.1817 | 1.0317 | 10.64 | 11.6717 | T | T | -4.28 | 100.72 | 54 | 333.26766702263 | 5.9959645156232 | 0.11117276522107 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 08:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 29.06 | 28.33 | 28.695 | 18.522156891528 | 0.2083 | 0.9083 | 11.18 | 12.0883 | T | T | -2.94 | 104.06 | 54 | 333.62415805711 | 6.1794389983377 | 0.13866817804877 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 39 | 119 | 29.12 | 28.77 | 28.945 | 13.925921806411 | 0.0868 | 0.7868 | 10.69 | 11.4768 | T | T | -2.88 | 104.12 | 54 | 330.52080666556 | 4.6028069090165 | 0.1399989170841 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |