MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 7, 2021

[ Saturday, November 6, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, November 8, 2021 ]

DAY 38 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.083
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 101

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.81 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-08 07:00:07OBSERVATION20223811827.0899623.1600225.1249932.7019652631580.809999999999952.149999999999911.5513.7TT-4.91004101.0899655343.94001880765 11.2475145476580.08256649047907986 15151217.5WETL
2021-11-08 03:00:12OBSERVATION20223811827.0899623.1600225.1249932.7019652631580.809999999999952.149999999999911.5513.7TT-4.91004101.0899655343.94001880765 11.2475145476580.08256649047907986 15151217.5WETL
2021-11-07 11:00:01FORECAST20223811831.224.2127.70511.4532440243260.62431.964311.5513.5143TT-0.8105.255329.856722095643.77792953122550.172841046866518615153252.5WETL
2021-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20223811830.2722.9626.61512.4337630944130.7162.05611.5513.606TT-1.73104.2755330.523458217524.10965037662280.148326936085248615153252.5WETL
2021-11-07 03:00:13FORECAST20223811830.5823.2326.90512.2534240169920.70952.049511.5513.5995TT-1.42104.5855330.400955328024.04854300125340.15622683183528615153252.5WETL
2021-11-07 00:00:03FORECAST20223811831.1223.2227.179.82944273539210.90221.202211.5512.7522TT-0.88102.1256329.769739930353.24145277451050.170636311840168615143242WETL
2021-11-06 20:00:01FORECAST20223811830.0722.9126.497.5696200245480.82091.590911.5513.1409TT-1.93102.0756328.226260218182.484548071930.143374135758458615154270WETL
2021-11-06 16:00:02FORECAST20223811830.1224.0627.098.30182697056760.99981.769811.5513.3198TT-1.88102.1256328.727334866012.72903745455340.144601769318638615153252.5WETL
2021-11-06 12:00:03FORECAST20223811830.5423.8727.20510.3646779547051.01071.780711.5513.3307TT-1.46102.5456330.134014665683.42173274390360.155192237028458615153252.5WETL
2021-11-06 08:00:02FORECAST20223811830.2124.8727.5410.7601647678351.00881.928811.5513.4788TT-1.79107.2156330.402860317593.55518921678120.146829257501758615153252.5WETL
2021-11-06 04:00:11FORECAST20223811830.7724.9227.84510.9933766596221.01572.025711.5513.5757TT-1.23105.7756330.56126752163.6339845229470.161202906190498615153252.5WETL
2021-11-06 00:00:03FORECAST20223811830.2823.7126.99511.5380114280731.04912.039111.5513.5891TT-1.7299.2856330.930840834323.8182838234480.148577536436358615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 20:00:01FORECAST20223811830.1423.6126.87512.4683704529811.1732.31311.5513.863TT-1.86103.1456331.560974006644.13402505166610.14509479416888615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 16:00:04FORECAST20223811830.3223.7527.03511.071365392060.99251.922511.5513.4725TT-1.68103.3256330.614219775283.66035083094310.149582759491068615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 12:00:04FORECAST20223811830.7723.4127.0912.3598807888631.05922.059211.5513.6092TT-1.23103.7756331.48757051354.09714685453670.161202906190498615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 08:00:05FORECAST20223811829.8924.1927.0414.5217625347861.12712.607111.5514.1571TT-2.11106.8956332.946479788384.83496971627990.139012886423758615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20223811830.1323.7426.93514.1634585053910.99552.635511.5514.1855TT-1.87105.1356332.705237887554.71225683134670.144848140892738615153252.5WETL
2021-11-05 00:00:02FORECAST20223811829.8425.0627.4517.3093619233860.98132.63139.6612.2913TT-2.1698.8456334.815857958375.79544886309040.137817580592588615152235WETL
2021-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20223811830.523.727.116.5598212595921.10872.608710.7113.3187TT-1.5107.556334.314512524095.53618857188650.154162163271178615152235WETL
2021-11-04 16:00:03FORECAST20223811826.0523.2824.66516.4159399658141.03932.449310.7113.1593TT-5.95104.0556334.218165366485.48650533814080.0667107132421788615152235WETL
2021-11-04 12:00:02FORECAST20223811828.7323.7126.2217.0236571681561.09012.500110.7113.2101TT-3.27106.7356334.624871116495.69653908582550.113072116165638615152235WETL
2021-11-04 08:00:05FORECAST20223811828.8224.1526.48516.9604791582951.09012.410110.9513.3601TT-3.18104.8256334.58261940185.67468154309210.114952182424578615152235WETL
2021-11-04 04:00:13FORECAST20223811829.0523.7626.40517.5930032228131.0972.5071113.507TT-2.95107.0556335.005328379185.89374982183460.119857184306098615152235WETL
2021-11-04 00:00:04FORECAST20223811828.5524.2426.39512.4654446377110.84862.268611.1513.4186TT-3.45101.5556331.558994681964.13303029234310.109377833690638615153252.5WETL
2021-11-03 20:00:02FORECAST20223811828.9924.4126.714.4318989632250.97222.352211.2313.5822TT-3.01109.9956332.885996325024.80417706523520.118563660625978615153252.5WETL
2021-11-03 16:00:03FORECAST20223811828.0822.5225.313.0985282863590.80212.152111.2513.4021TT-3.92114.0856331.986935502384.34854026537960.100141067986748615153252.5WETL
2021-11-03 12:00:05FORECAST20223811827.9122.6725.2914.2498274243470.87452.314511.2213.5345TT-4.09104.9156332.763409152284.74182115355730.0969439827892218615153252.5WETL
2021-11-03 08:49:39FORECAST20223811827.9122.6725.2914.7013480444260.87452.534511.213.7345TT-4.09109.9156333.067310033014.89653844701610.0969439827892218615153252.5WETL
2021-11-03 08:00:08FORECAST20223811827.1221.9624.5452.7299901858910.912.611.2613.86TT-4.88109.1256357.4515991753818.8484193164490.083063251627158615151217.5WETL
2021-11-03 04:00:14FORECAST20223811827.1321.3124.2251.7469311686920.8892.49911.3813.879TT-4.87104.1356356.8504565499518.4659160126060.0832291141935078615151217.5WETL
2021-11-03 00:00:01FORECAST20223811835.7323.0129.3747.1400038065830.4952.03510.612.635TT3.73118.7356354.0132246012716.6881847552840.32526236280688625151220WETL
2021-11-02 20:00:04FORECAST20223811835.6921.3928.5447.5693741426960.46711.777110.8212.5971TT3.69122.6956354.2790626900116.8528332840250.323706563351338625151220WETL
2021-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20223811835.6921.3528.5246.9905369012740.41021.640210.8412.4802TT3.69117.6956353.9206163992416.630919785030.323706563351338625151220WETL
2021-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20223811832.921.1527.02549.8129615515650.45242.152410.9713.1224TT0.9118.956355.6634399233317.7166492581980.223898870776148615151217.5WETL
2021-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20223811833.4422.8928.16549.073182142410.35532.135310.8112.9453TT1.44115.4456355.2078398991217.4311790257810.241749659037368615151217.5WETL
2021-11-02 04:00:11FORECAST20223811833.4924.9229.20549.2733841594470.37132.211310.7712.9813TT1.49121.4956355.3312206744117.5083717401360.243440640717968615151217.5WETL
2021-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20223811835.2525.1430.1959.58933450901790.2241.16410.0411.204TT3.25125.2556329.606164140833.16070376418060.306800505731218625143248WETL
2021-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20223811833.2725.4429.35513.0456677841420.43251.392510.2811.6725TT1.27129.2756331.951230108164.33052546852840.236048230132758615143242WETL
2021-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20223811833.3125.5329.4212.5407791280440.43251.312510.2511.5625TT1.31129.3156331.609954052564.15864719043390.237383051183018615143242WETL
2021-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20223811828.0222.8925.45516.1391075917680.60511.595110.4612.0551TT-3.98120.0256334.032691168235.39098954193180.0990040378218048615152235WETL
2021-11-01 08:00:08FORECAST20223811834.1126.4430.27516.5559082036580.42241.732410.7212.4524TT2.11122.1156334.311892692195.53483700680320.264928690360518625152240WETL
2021-11-01 04:00:06FORECAST20223811834.0126.4930.2513.0534105607170.42241.682410.2811.9624TT2.01122.0156331.956460378774.33316396560640.261398905476118625153260WETL
2021-11-01 00:00:05FORECAST20223811834.2425.3329.78517.6089718924490.35033.02031013.0203TT2.24115.2456335.015991281465.89928717399630.269553300124428625152240WETL
2021-10-31 20:00:05FORECAST20223811834.8825.1530.01520.7623688656540.14882.95889.9212.8788TT2.88130.8856337.11318439986.99926828398390.292893228890968625152240WETL
2021-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20223811834.9525.1930.0720.3065921661970.14883.02889.6212.6488TT2.95130.9556336.811103770926.83948572132280.295501826269898625152240WETL
2021-10-31 12:00:05FORECAST20223811836.8332.1534.4912.3875371385450.06682.396810.1212.5168TT4.83133.8356331.506284564274.10654641170110.369158200300878625153260WETH
2021-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20223811834.4932.6633.57515.64878847229102.2710.2212.49TT2.49130.4956333.703863314115.22206116938870.278558854070198625152240WETL
2021-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20223811834.533.1233.8118.30782924105502.2210.2412.46TT2.5128.556335.482222146546.14195123646850.278922098503388625152240WETL