Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 7, 2021
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Saturday, November 6, 2021 |
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Monday, November 8, 2021 ]
DAY 38
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.12°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.083
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 101
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.81 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.70 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
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Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.50 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-11-08 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.08996 | 23.16002 | 25.12499 | 32.701965263158 | 0.80999999999995 | 2.1499999999999 | 11.55 | 13.7 | T | T | -4.91004 | 101.08996 | 55 | 343.94001880765 | 11.247514547658 | 0.082566490479079 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-08 03:00:12 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.08996 | 23.16002 | 25.12499 | 32.701965263158 | 0.80999999999995 | 2.1499999999999 | 11.55 | 13.7 | T | T | -4.91004 | 101.08996 | 55 | 343.94001880765 | 11.247514547658 | 0.082566490479079 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-07 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 31.2 | 24.21 | 27.705 | 11.453244024326 | 0.6243 | 1.9643 | 11.55 | 13.5143 | T | T | -0.8 | 105.2 | 55 | 329.85672209564 | 3.7779295312255 | 0.17284104686651 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-07 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.27 | 22.96 | 26.615 | 12.433763094413 | 0.716 | 2.056 | 11.55 | 13.606 | T | T | -1.73 | 104.27 | 55 | 330.52345821752 | 4.1096503766228 | 0.14832693608524 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-07 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.58 | 23.23 | 26.905 | 12.253424016992 | 0.7095 | 2.0495 | 11.55 | 13.5995 | T | T | -1.42 | 104.58 | 55 | 330.40095532802 | 4.0485430012534 | 0.1562268318352 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-07 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 31.12 | 23.22 | 27.17 | 9.8294427353921 | 0.9022 | 1.2022 | 11.55 | 12.7522 | T | T | -0.88 | 102.12 | 56 | 329.76973993035 | 3.2414527745105 | 0.17063631184016 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.07 | 22.91 | 26.49 | 7.569620024548 | 0.8209 | 1.5909 | 11.55 | 13.1409 | T | T | -1.93 | 102.07 | 56 | 328.22626021818 | 2.48454807193 | 0.14337413575845 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.12 | 24.06 | 27.09 | 8.3018269705676 | 0.9998 | 1.7698 | 11.55 | 13.3198 | T | T | -1.88 | 102.12 | 56 | 328.72733486601 | 2.7290374545534 | 0.14460176931863 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.54 | 23.87 | 27.205 | 10.364677954705 | 1.0107 | 1.7807 | 11.55 | 13.3307 | T | T | -1.46 | 102.54 | 56 | 330.13401466568 | 3.4217327439036 | 0.15519223702845 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.21 | 24.87 | 27.54 | 10.760164767835 | 1.0088 | 1.9288 | 11.55 | 13.4788 | T | T | -1.79 | 107.21 | 56 | 330.40286031759 | 3.5551892167812 | 0.14682925750175 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.77 | 24.92 | 27.845 | 10.993376659622 | 1.0157 | 2.0257 | 11.55 | 13.5757 | T | T | -1.23 | 105.77 | 56 | 330.5612675216 | 3.633984522947 | 0.16120290619049 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-06 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.28 | 23.71 | 26.995 | 11.538011428073 | 1.0491 | 2.0391 | 11.55 | 13.5891 | T | T | -1.72 | 99.28 | 56 | 330.93084083432 | 3.818283823448 | 0.14857753643635 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.14 | 23.61 | 26.875 | 12.468370452981 | 1.173 | 2.313 | 11.55 | 13.863 | T | T | -1.86 | 103.14 | 56 | 331.56097400664 | 4.1340250516661 | 0.1450947941688 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.32 | 23.75 | 27.035 | 11.07136539206 | 0.9925 | 1.9225 | 11.55 | 13.4725 | T | T | -1.68 | 103.32 | 56 | 330.61421977528 | 3.6603508309431 | 0.14958275949106 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.77 | 23.41 | 27.09 | 12.359880788863 | 1.0592 | 2.0592 | 11.55 | 13.6092 | T | T | -1.23 | 103.77 | 56 | 331.4875705135 | 4.0971468545367 | 0.16120290619049 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 29.89 | 24.19 | 27.04 | 14.521762534786 | 1.1271 | 2.6071 | 11.55 | 14.1571 | T | T | -2.11 | 106.89 | 56 | 332.94647978838 | 4.8349697162799 | 0.13901288642375 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.13 | 23.74 | 26.935 | 14.163458505391 | 0.9955 | 2.6355 | 11.55 | 14.1855 | T | T | -1.87 | 105.13 | 56 | 332.70523788755 | 4.7122568313467 | 0.14484814089273 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-05 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 29.84 | 25.06 | 27.45 | 17.309361923386 | 0.9813 | 2.6313 | 9.66 | 12.2913 | T | T | -2.16 | 98.84 | 56 | 334.81585795837 | 5.7954488630904 | 0.13781758059258 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 30.5 | 23.7 | 27.1 | 16.559821259592 | 1.1087 | 2.6087 | 10.71 | 13.3187 | T | T | -1.5 | 107.5 | 56 | 334.31451252409 | 5.5361885718865 | 0.15416216327117 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 26.05 | 23.28 | 24.665 | 16.415939965814 | 1.0393 | 2.4493 | 10.71 | 13.1593 | T | T | -5.95 | 104.05 | 56 | 334.21816536648 | 5.4865053381408 | 0.066710713242178 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.73 | 23.71 | 26.22 | 17.023657168156 | 1.0901 | 2.5001 | 10.71 | 13.2101 | T | T | -3.27 | 106.73 | 56 | 334.62487111649 | 5.6965390858255 | 0.11307211616563 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.82 | 24.15 | 26.485 | 16.960479158295 | 1.0901 | 2.4101 | 10.95 | 13.3601 | T | T | -3.18 | 104.82 | 56 | 334.5826194018 | 5.6746815430921 | 0.11495218242457 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 29.05 | 23.76 | 26.405 | 17.593003222813 | 1.097 | 2.507 | 11 | 13.507 | T | T | -2.95 | 107.05 | 56 | 335.00532837918 | 5.8937498218346 | 0.11985718430609 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.55 | 24.24 | 26.395 | 12.465444637711 | 0.8486 | 2.2686 | 11.15 | 13.4186 | T | T | -3.45 | 101.55 | 56 | 331.55899468196 | 4.1330302923431 | 0.10937783369063 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.99 | 24.41 | 26.7 | 14.431898963225 | 0.9722 | 2.3522 | 11.23 | 13.5822 | T | T | -3.01 | 109.99 | 56 | 332.88599632502 | 4.8041770652352 | 0.11856366062597 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.08 | 22.52 | 25.3 | 13.098528286359 | 0.8021 | 2.1521 | 11.25 | 13.4021 | T | T | -3.92 | 114.08 | 56 | 331.98693550238 | 4.3485402653796 | 0.10014106798674 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.91 | 22.67 | 25.29 | 14.249827424347 | 0.8745 | 2.3145 | 11.22 | 13.5345 | T | T | -4.09 | 104.91 | 56 | 332.76340915228 | 4.7418211535573 | 0.096943982789221 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 08:49:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.91 | 22.67 | 25.29 | 14.701348044426 | 0.8745 | 2.5345 | 11.2 | 13.7345 | T | T | -4.09 | 109.91 | 56 | 333.06731003301 | 4.8965384470161 | 0.096943982789221 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 08:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.12 | 21.96 | 24.54 | 52.729990185891 | 0.91 | 2.6 | 11.26 | 13.86 | T | T | -4.88 | 109.12 | 56 | 357.45159917538 | 18.848419316449 | 0.08306325162715 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 27.13 | 21.31 | 24.22 | 51.746931168692 | 0.889 | 2.499 | 11.38 | 13.879 | T | T | -4.87 | 104.13 | 56 | 356.85045654995 | 18.465916012606 | 0.083229114193507 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 35.73 | 23.01 | 29.37 | 47.140003806583 | 0.495 | 2.035 | 10.6 | 12.635 | T | T | 3.73 | 118.73 | 56 | 354.01322460127 | 16.688184755284 | 0.3252623628068 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 35.69 | 21.39 | 28.54 | 47.569374142696 | 0.4671 | 1.7771 | 10.82 | 12.5971 | T | T | 3.69 | 122.69 | 56 | 354.27906269001 | 16.852833284025 | 0.32370656335133 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 35.69 | 21.35 | 28.52 | 46.990536901274 | 0.4102 | 1.6402 | 10.84 | 12.4802 | T | T | 3.69 | 117.69 | 56 | 353.92061639924 | 16.63091978503 | 0.32370656335133 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 32.9 | 21.15 | 27.025 | 49.812961551565 | 0.4524 | 2.1524 | 10.97 | 13.1224 | T | T | 0.9 | 118.9 | 56 | 355.66343992333 | 17.716649258198 | 0.22389887077614 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 33.44 | 22.89 | 28.165 | 49.07318214241 | 0.3553 | 2.1353 | 10.81 | 12.9453 | T | T | 1.44 | 115.44 | 56 | 355.20783989912 | 17.431179025781 | 0.24174965903736 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 33.49 | 24.92 | 29.205 | 49.273384159447 | 0.3713 | 2.2113 | 10.77 | 12.9813 | T | T | 1.49 | 121.49 | 56 | 355.33122067441 | 17.508371740136 | 0.24344064071796 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 35.25 | 25.14 | 30.195 | 9.5893345090179 | 0.224 | 1.164 | 10.04 | 11.204 | T | T | 3.25 | 125.25 | 56 | 329.60616414083 | 3.1607037641806 | 0.30680050573121 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 33.27 | 25.44 | 29.355 | 13.045667784142 | 0.4325 | 1.3925 | 10.28 | 11.6725 | T | T | 1.27 | 129.27 | 56 | 331.95123010816 | 4.3305254685284 | 0.23604823013275 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 33.31 | 25.53 | 29.42 | 12.540779128044 | 0.4325 | 1.3125 | 10.25 | 11.5625 | T | T | 1.31 | 129.31 | 56 | 331.60995405256 | 4.1586471904339 | 0.23738305118301 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 28.02 | 22.89 | 25.455 | 16.139107591768 | 0.6051 | 1.5951 | 10.46 | 12.0551 | T | T | -3.98 | 120.02 | 56 | 334.03269116823 | 5.3909895419318 | 0.099004037821804 | 86 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 08:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.11 | 26.44 | 30.275 | 16.555908203658 | 0.4224 | 1.7324 | 10.72 | 12.4524 | T | T | 2.11 | 122.11 | 56 | 334.31189269219 | 5.5348370068032 | 0.26492869036051 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.01 | 26.49 | 30.25 | 13.053410560717 | 0.4224 | 1.6824 | 10.28 | 11.9624 | T | T | 2.01 | 122.01 | 56 | 331.95646037877 | 4.3331639656064 | 0.26139890547611 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
2021-11-01 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.24 | 25.33 | 29.785 | 17.608971892449 | 0.3503 | 3.0203 | 10 | 13.0203 | T | T | 2.24 | 115.24 | 56 | 335.01599128146 | 5.8992871739963 | 0.26955330012442 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-31 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.88 | 25.15 | 30.015 | 20.762368865654 | 0.1488 | 2.9588 | 9.92 | 12.8788 | T | T | 2.88 | 130.88 | 56 | 337.1131843998 | 6.9992682839839 | 0.29289322889096 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-31 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.95 | 25.19 | 30.07 | 20.306592166197 | 0.1488 | 3.0288 | 9.62 | 12.6488 | T | T | 2.95 | 130.95 | 56 | 336.81110377092 | 6.8394857213228 | 0.29550182626989 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-31 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 36.83 | 32.15 | 34.49 | 12.387537138545 | 0.0668 | 2.3968 | 10.12 | 12.5168 | T | T | 4.83 | 133.83 | 56 | 331.50628456427 | 4.1065464117011 | 0.36915820030087 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.49 | 32.66 | 33.575 | 15.648788472291 | 0 | 2.27 | 10.22 | 12.49 | T | T | 2.49 | 130.49 | 56 | 333.70386331411 | 5.2220611693887 | 0.27855885407019 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-31 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 38 | 118 | 34.5 | 33.12 | 33.81 | 18.307829241055 | 0 | 2.22 | 10.24 | 12.46 | T | T | 2.5 | 128.5 | 56 | 335.48222214654 | 6.1419512364685 | 0.27892209850338 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |