Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 6, 2021
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Sunday, November 7, 2021 ]
DAY 37
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/07/2021 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.08°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.093
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.46 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.30 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 117
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-07 07:00:04 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 27.89996 | 24.26 | 26.07998 | 9.3641545 | 1.0699999999999 | 3.2399999999999 | 10.22 | 13.46 | T | T | -4.10004 | 117.89996 | 57 | 330.47083177692 | 3.0945799265025 | 0.092868733348081 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 03:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 27.89996 | 24.26 | 26.07998 | 9.3641545 | 1.0699999999999 | 3.2399999999999 | 10.22 | 13.46 | T | T | -4.10004 | 117.89996 | 57 | 330.47083177692 | 3.0945799265025 | 0.092868733348081 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-07 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 25.05 | 25.05 | 25.05 | 6.1163263878227 | 0.0253 | 2.1953 | 10.22 | 12.4153 | T | T | -6.95 | 115.05 | 56 | 327.22895621343 | 2.0014390997478 | 0.050443517445168 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 25.97 | 24.72 | 25.345 | 6.1578517814957 | 0.5006 | 2.6706 | 10.22 | 12.8906 | T | T | -6.03 | 115.97 | 56 | 327.25750360088 | 2.0152032015565 | 0.06201297520707 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 30.57 | 24.74 | 27.655 | 6.5946176108045 | 0.6497 | 2.8197 | 10.22 | 13.0397 | T | T | -1.43 | 120.57 | 56 | 327.55758389952 | 2.1601170113364 | 0.15233977083321 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.61 | 25.4 | 27.005 | 6.9041726285644 | 0.7436 | 2.9136 | 10.22 | 13.1336 | T | T | -3.39 | 118.61 | 56 | 327.77006241846 | 2.2629810934124 | 0.10669039599802 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 27.61 | 25.35 | 26.48 | 6.9163739320663 | 0.9857 | 2.8857 | 10.22 | 13.1057 | T | T | -4.39 | 112.61 | 57 | 328.80294811083 | 2.2741241391003 | 0.08762087063453 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.98 | 25.58 | 27.28 | 7.1886377356989 | 1.0734 | 3.0434 | 10.22 | 13.2634 | T | T | -3.02 | 116.98 | 57 | 328.98897786168 | 2.3649825808855 | 0.11445316339529 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.97 | 25.93 | 27.45 | 6.6253139855478 | 0.8646 | 2.8346 | 10.22 | 13.0546 | T | T | -3.03 | 116.97 | 57 | 328.60393318603 | 2.1771042342434 | 0.11423822380954 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 29.07 | 25.72 | 27.395 | 7.3257972759875 | 0.9322 | 2.9022 | 10.22 | 13.1222 | T | T | -2.93 | 117.07 | 57 | 329.08264617333 | 2.4107927529113 | 0.11640054064744 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.52 | 25.53 | 28.525 | 9.05904766626 | 1.0936 | 3.3836 | 10.22 | 13.6036 | T | T | -0.48 | 120.52 | 57 | 330.26350150419 | 2.9918728025524 | 0.17855148493889 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.77 | 25.49 | 27.13 | 9.3002406985308 | 1.1106 | 3.5406 | 10.22 | 13.7606 | T | T | -3.23 | 118.77 | 57 | 330.42741351922 | 3.0730544791218 | 0.1099994808899 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.81 | 25.47 | 28.64 | 12.328874804029 | 1.1048 | 1.6648 | 10.22 | 11.8848 | T | T | -0.19 | 112.81 | 57 | 332.47711407217 | 4.0990687146008 | 0.18708652197992 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 30.42 | 25.68 | 28.05 | 10.826084662947 | 0.9605 | 2.5605 | 10.22 | 12.7805 | T | T | -1.58 | 121.42 | 57 | 331.46203574722 | 3.5884360615522 | 0.14844670942464 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.96 | 25.82 | 28.89 | 10.6351229052 | 0.9029 | 2.4729 | 10.22 | 12.6929 | T | T | -0.039999999999999 | 121.96 | 57 | 331.33277056673 | 3.5237647374977 | 0.19159835387342 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 32.39 | 25.75 | 29.07 | 11.237852683306 | 0.8527 | 2.4727 | 10.22 | 12.6927 | T | T | 0.39 | 122.39 | 57 | 331.74055507947 | 3.7280514870613 | 0.20489628877687 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.06 | 26.1 | 29.58 | 11.061187463891 | 0.7212 | 2.6212 | 10.22 | 12.8412 | T | T | 1.06 | 120.06 | 57 | 331.62109464225 | 3.6681230948187 | 0.22667398102089 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 32.85 | 26.18 | 29.515 | 11.538499959913 | 0.8189 | 2.7589 | 10.22 | 12.9789 | T | T | 0.85 | 121.85 | 57 | 331.94372857862 | 3.8301326988978 | 0.21971149870619 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.25 | 25.54 | 29.395 | 7.8710094600395 | 0.7152 | 3.1652 | 9.97 | 13.1352 | T | T | 1.25 | 117.25 | 57 | 329.45465726749 | 2.5931407240065 | 0.23307906604982 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.33 | 26.4 | 29.865 | 9.1636655833437 | 0.8436 | 3.1636 | 10.02 | 13.1836 | T | T | 1.33 | 125.33 | 57 | 330.33461097127 | 3.0270759055447 | 0.2358056639929 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 34.99 | 25.34 | 30.165 | 8.5638314865077 | 0.8267 | 3.1467 | 10.02 | 13.1667 | T | T | 2.99 | 129.99 | 57 | 329.92664336241 | 2.8254361766648 | 0.29614355319169 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 29.03 | 24.78 | 26.905 | 9.1560628137967 | 0.9139 | 3.2139 | 10.02 | 13.2339 | T | T | -2.97 | 121.03 | 57 | 330.32944395689 | 3.0245171381158 | 0.11553216601576 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:49:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.9 | 24.79 | 29.345 | 9.534952272241 | 1.0649 | 3.3749 | 10.06 | 13.4349 | T | T | 1.9 | 125.9 | 57 | 330.58682443242 | 3.1521295927948 | 0.25573171749916 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 32.23 | 24.75 | 28.49 | 47.198948916581 | 1.1133 | 3.4633 | 10.06 | 13.5233 | T | T | 0.23 | 126.23 | 57 | 354.97460936668 | 16.754428454181 | 0.19988547074314 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.67 | 24.75 | 28.21 | 46.250672848491 | 1.0481 | 3.4681 | 10.09 | 13.5581 | T | T | -0.33 | 120.67 | 57 | 354.38878889104 | 16.390719936173 | 0.1829351725157 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.19 | 24.67 | 28.93 | 44.237346733413 | 0.8613 | 3.2513 | 9.46 | 12.7113 | T | T | 1.19 | 127.19 | 57 | 353.14031997064 | 15.621990780089 | 0.23104564039634 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.34 | 24.64 | 28.99 | 44.730633869514 | 0.6024 | 3.0224 | 9.68 | 12.7024 | T | T | 1.34 | 131.34 | 57 | 353.44679940499 | 15.809899376536 | 0.23614771886523 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.5 | 24.82 | 29.16 | 44.360556944191 | 0.552 | 2.932 | 9.71 | 12.642 | T | T | 1.5 | 125.5 | 57 | 353.21690649107 | 15.668898694048 | 0.24165754226846 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.65 | 24.36 | 29.005 | 46.623149365461 | 0.5893 | 3.4993 | 9.74 | 13.2393 | T | T | 1.65 | 129.65 | 57 | 354.61906355125 | 16.53345756779 | 0.24688563425373 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.19 | 24.85 | 26.52 | 46.7184734135 | 0.5629 | 3.5729 | 9.59 | 13.1629 | T | T | -3.81 | 126.19 | 57 | 354.67796035096 | 16.570012861011 | 0.098346184170669 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.84 | 24.86 | 29.35 | 46.747299921618 | 0.5698 | 3.6198 | 9.56 | 13.1798 | T | T | 1.84 | 131.84 | 57 | 354.69576825394 | 16.581069459496 | 0.2535936933437 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 36.11 | 26.22 | 31.165 | 8.1900860437103 | 0.3093 | 2.6193 | 8.93 | 11.5493 | T | T | 4.11 | 134.11 | 57 | 329.67213187102 | 2.700043126237 | 0.3404755493988 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 35.98 | 27.76 | 31.87 | 9.9168429211738 | 0.3196 | 2.5596 | 9.25 | 11.8096 | T | T | 3.98 | 139.98 | 57 | 330.8459930963 | 3.2809477446358 | 0.33519971564967 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 35.97 | 27.39 | 31.68 | 9.3164565846719 | 0.2701 | 2.3401 | 9.36 | 11.7001 | T | T | 3.97 | 139.97 | 57 | 330.43843004707 | 3.0785152874407 | 0.33479520831706 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.53 | 25.84 | 29.685 | 10.961712573 | 0.2383 | 2.6983 | 9.32 | 12.0183 | T | T | 1.53 | 135.53 | 57 | 331.55380645663 | 3.6343975288619 | 0.24269833643318 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 08:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.44 | 25.45 | 26.945 | 13.663779542871 | 0.2815 | 3.3915 | 9.21 | 12.6015 | T | T | -3.56 | 132.44 | 57 | 333.37554831108 | 4.5551699971062 | 0.1032536166057 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 33.49 | 25.52 | 29.505 | 9.9979415370062 | 0.2815 | 2.9015 | 9.21 | 12.1115 | T | T | 1.49 | 132.49 | 57 | 330.90099801506 | 3.3083288326916 | 0.24131114925403 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.2 | 26.77 | 28.985 | 15.234666107903 | 1.1072 | 4.1472 | 9.09 | 13.2372 | T | T | -0.8 | 125.2 | 57 | 334.42891171076 | 5.0949128067429 | 0.16942241308139 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 34 | 25.69 | 29.845 | 19.550611297483 | 1.1715 | 4.2315 | 9.07 | 13.3015 | T | T | 2 | 140 | 57 | 337.30143990828 | 6.5944493417282 | 0.25931586444045 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 34.01 | 25.68 | 29.845 | 19.040014889782 | 1.1715 | 3.9315 | 9.14 | 13.0715 | T | T | 2.01 | 140.01 | 57 | 336.96324650252 | 6.4157852307171 | 0.25967569942437 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 39.07 | 26.85 | 32.96 | 12.468061138545 | 0.1676 | 3.8876 | 9.13 | 13.0176 | T | T | 7.07 | 141.07 | 57 | 332.5709333131 | 4.1465147294508 | 0.46711829776989 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-31 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 39.84 | 25.69 | 32.765 | 15.715864472291 | 0.0145 | 3.9845 | 9.08 | 13.0645 | T | T | 7.84 | 139.84 | 57 | 334.75074090995 | 5.2608972761397 | 0.50118767250604 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 39.84 | 25.7 | 32.77 | 18.348993241055 | 0.0144 | 3.9344 | 9.1 | 13.0344 | T | T | 7.84 | 137.84 | 57 | 336.50484945023 | 6.1745252081446 | 0.50118767250604 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 36.16 | 23.72 | 29.94 | 194.19379473045 | 0.451 | 2.421 | 9.03 | 11.451 | T | T | 4.16 | 128.16 | 57 | 430.66709970416 | 83.632878357107 | 0.34251312311494 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 36.18 | 23.72 | 29.95 | 192.67752841917 | 0.2375 | 2.2975 | 8.99 | 11.2875 | T | T | 4.18 | 141.18 | 57 | 430.02179104121 | 82.855535864206 | 0.34332944092229 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 35.84 | 24.47 | 30.155 | 192.98115405323 | 0.2444 | 2.2644 | 9.17 | 11.4344 | T | T | 3.84 | 137.84 | 57 | 430.15121033434 | 83.011076987714 | 0.32955418504241 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 31.87 | 27.27 | 29.57 | 188.04461175385 | 0.1581 | 1.9081 | 9.11 | 11.0181 | T | T | -0.13 | 137.87 | 57 | 428.03459670033 | 80.489599553728 | 0.18888332938448 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.47 | 26.69 | 27.58 | 188.30170988078 | 0.1055 | 1.8555 | 8.98 | 10.8355 | T | T | -3.53 | 127.47 | 57 | 428.14548756452 | 80.620527386139 | 0.10385421242535 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 37 | 117 | 28.55 | 27.61 | 28.08 | 187.50488741834 | 0.0833 | 1.5833 | 8.91 | 10.4933 | T | T | -3.45 | 136.55 | 57 | 427.80156855822 | 80.214884949899 | 0.10546813959985 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |