Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 5, 2021
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Saturday, November 6, 2021 ]
DAY 36
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2021 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.07°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.148
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 141
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.39 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.64 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-06 04:00:10 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 31.58996 | 24.54008 | 28.06502 | 3.8845066666667 | 0.26999999999998 | 2.44 | 9.95 | 12.39 | T | T | -0.41004 | 140.58996 | 58 | 327.75116575154 | 1.2731515883696 | 0.14799815314446 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-06 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 3.0023045459337 | 0.0005 | 2.1705 | 9.95 | 12.1205 | T | T | -5.2 | 135.8 | 57 | 326.1143134946 | 0.97909448589889 | 0.058648102571836 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 29.58 | 26.82 | 28.2 | 3.2509706384303 | 0.0665 | 2.2365 | 9.95 | 12.1865 | T | T | -2.42 | 138.58 | 57 | 326.28592236083 | 1.0607459533282 | 0.10318507211269 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 30.92 | 25.64 | 28.28 | 4.4363537715341 | 0.3942 | 2.5642 | 9.95 | 12.5142 | T | T | -1.08 | 139.92 | 57 | 327.10248799191 | 1.4511423562811 | 0.1318075826052 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 31.84 | 26.39 | 29.115 | 4.3424570646525 | 0.5282 | 2.6982 | 9.95 | 12.6482 | T | T | -0.16 | 140.84 | 57 | 327.03789572336 | 1.420148020693 | 0.1543673607056 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-05 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 32.98 | 25.79 | 29.385 | 7.5619211788179 | 0.5469 | 0.8269 | 9.95 | 10.7769 | T | T | 0.98 | 131.98 | 58 | 330.2627785426 | 2.4974210996366 | 0.18566190061155 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.13 | 26.05 | 30.09 | 6.5707941982537 | 0.5448 | 1.8748 | 9.95 | 11.8248 | T | T | 2.13 | 142.13 | 58 | 329.58816306247 | 2.165655989664 | 0.22092966988763 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.02 | 28.03 | 30.525 | 6.6181981812936 | 0.5104 | 1.8404 | 9.95 | 11.7904 | T | T | 1.02 | 141.02 | 58 | 329.62046750402 | 2.1814935785522 | 0.18682685888542 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.43 | 27.17 | 30.3 | 7.4728637413105 | 0.56 | 1.89 | 9.95 | 11.84 | T | T | 1.43 | 141.43 | 58 | 330.20223057849 | 2.4675562761899 | 0.19902639877948 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.94 | 26.54 | 30.24 | 7.8814830065636 | 0.6017 | 2.1717 | 9.95 | 12.1217 | T | T | 1.94 | 137.94 | 58 | 330.4799280667 | 2.604671937068 | 0.21485219907495 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.97 | 26.56 | 30.265 | 7.7955101340008 | 0.5895 | 2.2095 | 9.95 | 12.1595 | T | T | 1.97 | 139.97 | 58 | 330.42152487586 | 2.5758043456618 | 0.21580530462619 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-04 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.41 | 26.76 | 30.585 | 4.6960047721329 | 0.6979 | 2.4679 | 9.95 | 12.4179 | T | T | 2.41 | 135.41 | 58 | 328.30742445159 | 1.5417332319513 | 0.23006253448473 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.46 | 27.43 | 30.945 | 5.4520615211454 | 0.5444 | 2.3944 | 9.95 | 12.3444 | T | T | 2.46 | 143.46 | 58 | 328.82464896477 | 1.792772215825 | 0.23171531125738 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.55 | 26.95 | 30.75 | 4.8411795418941 | 0.524 | 2.394 | 9.95 | 12.344 | T | T | 2.55 | 145.55 | 58 | 328.40681674713 | 1.5898763626548 | 0.23470688531595 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.05 | 27.37 | 30.71 | 4.434181651099 | 0.5284 | 2.3684 | 9.95 | 12.3184 | T | T | 2.05 | 143.05 | 58 | 328.12807747595 | 1.4549795003542 | 0.21835884433709 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:49:38 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.49 | 27.41 | 30.95 | 4.4545567685345 | 0.6038 | 2.4238 | 9.95 | 12.3738 | T | T | 2.49 | 143.49 | 58 | 328.14203856657 | 1.4617273389374 | 0.23271013898298 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 35.84 | 26.74 | 31.29 | 41.46711639053 | 0.5781 | 2.4581 | 9.95 | 12.4081 | T | T | 3.84 | 144.84 | 58 | 352.34690018278 | 14.610809919722 | 0.27984019584684 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 35.72 | 27.79 | 31.755 | 40.816900559944 | 0.5616 | 2.5616 | 9.95 | 12.5116 | T | T | 3.72 | 139.72 | 58 | 351.94102232923 | 14.365141711377 | 0.27547080889528 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-03 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 36.17 | 28.95 | 32.56 | 39.919781135302 | 0.6754 | 2.5454 | 9.3 | 11.8454 | T | T | 4.17 | 145.17 | 58 | 351.37992066111 | 14.027009528132 | 0.2920262391714 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.71 | 27.95 | 31.33 | 41.677323412986 | 0.7129 | 2.5429 | 9.56 | 12.1029 | T | T | 2.71 | 148.71 | 58 | 352.47797233262 | 14.69033844886 | 0.24007748979116 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.74 | 27.53 | 30.635 | 41.541952625998 | 0.6842 | 2.5342 | 9.56 | 12.0942 | T | T | 1.74 | 142.74 | 58 | 352.39357147169 | 14.639117051783 | 0.20856082798712 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.11 | 25.37 | 29.24 | 43.30479791122 | 1.1094 | 3.0894 | 9.56 | 12.6494 | T | T | 1.11 | 147.11 | 58 | 353.49040026309 | 15.307830346949 | 0.18946447156794 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.82 | 25.82 | 29.82 | 43.353615022778 | 1.2153 | 3.1353 | 9.46 | 12.5953 | T | T | 1.82 | 148.82 | 58 | 353.52070406585 | 15.326400506652 | 0.21106426592033 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.12 | 25.83 | 29.475 | 43.484233746312 | 1.2683 | 3.1683 | 9.44 | 12.6083 | T | T | 1.12 | 149.12 | 58 | 353.60176871733 | 15.376101964014 | 0.18975894444781 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-02 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 37.48 | 28.4 | 32.94 | 6.7001823825756 | 0.626 | 2.556 | 8.68 | 11.236 | T | T | 5.48 | 149.48 | 58 | 329.67632818291 | 2.2088915260434 | 0.34266464213428 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 37.49 | 28.47 | 32.98 | 8.2627690062784 | 0.642 | 2.542 | 8.95 | 11.492 | T | T | 5.49 | 155.49 | 58 | 330.73879006174 | 2.7328182236962 | 0.34306384542556 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-01 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 38.11 | 29.58 | 33.845 | 7.8546677680656 | 0.6109 | 2.4009 | 9.03 | 11.4309 | T | T | 6.11 | 155.11 | 58 | 330.46171327655 | 2.5956669678531 | 0.36814051857896 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-01 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 36.35 | 27.04 | 31.695 | 9.4628222583698 | 0.752 | 2.752 | 9.03 | 11.782 | T | T | 4.35 | 153.35 | 58 | 331.55189371144 | 3.1374166396172 | 0.2987755461367 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-01 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 37.98 | 28.01 | 32.995 | 11.769088121434 | 1.033 | 3.363 | 8.96 | 12.323 | T | T | 5.98 | 154.98 | 58 | 333.10757737612 | 3.9203724320569 | 0.3628315014787 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-01 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 38.3 | 28.2 | 33.25 | 8.1884993227215 | 0.9751 | 2.8551 | 8.97 | 11.8251 | T | T | 6.3 | 150.3 | 58 | 330.68838668228 | 2.7078416303797 | 0.37594508579196 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.65 | 25.58 | 30.115 | 10.138093871674 | 1.5596 | 3.1696 | 8.96 | 12.1296 | T | T | 2.65 | 144.65 | 58 | 332.00833973493 | 3.3659317144114 | 0.23805571165799 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.84 | 25.75 | 29.795 | 12.382068497389 | 1.6398 | 3.1198 | 9.01 | 12.1298 | T | T | 1.84 | 156.84 | 58 | 333.51953049282 | 4.129661671779 | 0.21169286117573 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 35.04 | 25.77 | 30.405 | 11.451027068009 | 1.7091 | 2.8491 | 9.05 | 11.8991 | T | T | 3.04 | 157.04 | 58 | 332.89357174438 | 3.8119733008109 | 0.25136249580801 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.92 | 28 | 31.46 | 12.017217589162 | 2.158 | 3.858 | 8.99 | 12.848 | T | T | 2.92 | 152.92 | 58 | 333.27440991691 | 4.0050311008712 | 0.24722674141726 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.9 | 25.67 | 30.285 | 15.883992931195 | 2.2603 | 4.1503 | 8.9 | 13.0503 | T | T | 2.9 | 150.9 | 58 | 335.86073735221 | 5.3348095779685 | 0.24654099855925 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 31.77 | 25.33 | 28.55 | 18.501918232026 | 2.2112 | 4.0612 | 8.96 | 13.0212 | T | T | -0.23 | 148.77 | 58 | 337.5973949818 | 6.2461993972981 | 0.15256631983757 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-31 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 30.94 | 23.74 | 27.34 | 191.17120474288 | 0.7914 | 2.0214 | 8.98 | 11.0014 | T | T | -1.06 | 142.94 | 58 | 430.01741571919 | 82.206947423456 | 0.13227253865781 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 30.88 | 23.62 | 27.25 | 190.93441594597 | 0.7914 | 2.1214 | 8.93 | 11.0514 | T | T | -1.12 | 155.88 | 58 | 429.91641345216 | 82.085839308076 | 0.13088104639657 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 31.97 | 24.06 | 28.015 | 190.84854774494 | 0.6173 | 2.2773 | 8.91 | 11.1873 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 152.97 | 58 | 429.8797713575 | 82.041930068506 | 0.15774920025505 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 37.71 | 27.23 | 32.47 | 187.14604841769 | 0.6954 | 1.9654 | 8.89 | 10.8554 | T | T | 5.71 | 156.71 | 58 | 428.29219725814 | 80.15319228499 | 0.35188992526193 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 36.92 | 27.71 | 32.315 | 187.57883466679 | 0.6954 | 1.8354 | 8.89 | 10.7254 | T | T | 4.92 | 149.92 | 58 | 428.47854078669 | 80.373505360494 | 0.32060065087145 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 37.77 | 28.68 | 33.225 | 186.93332203854 | 0.6366 | 1.5366 | 8.87 | 10.4066 | T | T | 5.77 | 158.77 | 58 | 428.20052915855 | 80.044947414268 | 0.3543111911184 | 89 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-30 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 31.97 | 27.58 | 29.775 | 12.558918679538 | 0.9933 | 1.7133 | 8.51 | 10.2233 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 140.97 | 58 | 333.63826338828 | 4.1901358182758 | 0.15774920025505 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 32.79 | 28.56 | 30.675 | 12.29209751103 | 0.9389 | 1.6189 | 8.52 | 10.1389 | T | T | 0.79 | 143.79 | 58 | 333.45910569685 | 4.0989118431666 | 0.18018997459396 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.7 | 29.5 | 31.6 | 11.235601034917 | 0.7156 | 1.2756 | 8.51 | 9.7856 | T | T | 1.7 | 145.7 | 58 | 332.74852528428 | 3.7386296750511 | 0.20731568920839 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 34.64 | 30.05 | 32.345 | 8.1652463716279 | 0.2662 | 0.9362 | 8.57 | 9.5062 | T | T | 2.64 | 136.64 | 58 | 330.67260403142 | 2.7000232802643 | 0.23771965677265 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-29 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 33.51 | 30.04 | 31.775 | 8.1219585710543 | 0.2392 | 0.9092 | 8.58 | 9.4892 | T | T | 1.51 | 138.51 | 58 | 330.64322049306 | 2.6854705386446 | 0.20146146207023 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 30.48 | 29.83 | 30.155 | 114.50804982675 | 0.2112 | 0.8812 | 8.74 | 9.6212 | T | T | -1.52 | 130.48 | 58 | 393.92667092814 | 45.107774862724 | 0.12186225674661 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 36 | 116 | 30.96 | 30 | 30.48 | 114.42828699713 | 0.168 | 0.918 | 8.93 | 9.848 | T | T | -1.04 | 130.96 | 58 | 393.8853422374 | 45.071624985503 | 0.13273862072165 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |