Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 4, 2021

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DAY 35 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.05°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.557 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.90 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.85 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.27 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 3 in SWE DAY: 59 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.83 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 90.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-05 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2022	35	115	43.05002	29.66	36.35501	2.5328033333333	1.9	2.85	9.27	12.12	T	T	11.05002	147.05002	59	327.85020402065	0.83038008957752	0.5568412098359	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-11-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	33.02	33.02	33.02	6.0132149129979	0.0055	0.9555	9.27	10.2255	T	T	1.02	137.02	58	329.2078968392	1.9795978347501	0.19582428386494	90	1	5	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2021-11-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	35	115	42.3	31.99	37.145	5.6430622023439	1.0611	2.0111	9.27	11.2811	T	T	10.3	146.3	58	328.95515698614	1.8563144126546	0.5271962492758	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-11-04 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	35	115	37.92	32.29	35.105	5.9593255057396	1.298	2.248	9.27	11.518	T	T	5.92	141.92	58	329.17111599023	1.9616378272733	0.35634104976801	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.56	32.24	35.9	5.9135705755462	1.3492	2.2992	9.27	11.5692	T	T	7.56	143.56	58	329.13988317019	1.9463919283539	0.41885454235533	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.63	31.8	36.715	2.3159508203215	1.7493	2.4493	9.27	11.7193	T	T	9.63	138.63	59	327.70141816707	0.75894036822454	0.50058104430697	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-11-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.27	31.36	36.315	3.7030573582249	1.7829	2.5329	9.27	11.8029	T	T	9.27	147.27	59	328.65172042479	1.2170161716123	0.48627171128242	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-03 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	35	115	42.53	31.73	37.13	3.1538040851481	1.8025	2.5525	9.27	11.8225	T	T	10.53	148.53	59	328.27582911513	1.0353176509187	0.53631087382096	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-11-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.25	31.83	36.54	2.698345757752	1.7657	2.5157	9.27	11.7857	T	T	9.25	147.25	59	327.96373008415	0.8849595397691	0.48547709633858	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-03 08:49:38	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.07	31.62	36.345	2.4896520309307	1.708	2.498	9.27	11.768	T	T	9.07	147.07	59	327.82060377748	0.81615923197555	0.47832853472149	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.92	33.32	37.12	39.431048937894	1.774	2.564	9.27	11.834	T	T	8.92	146.92	59	352.0098656817	13.880118240317	0.47237662359408	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.84	33.17	37.005	38.901333112249	1.8612	2.6812	9.27	11.9512	T	T	8.84	141.84	59	351.67880319835	13.680774271736	0.46920470639927	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-03 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.16	31.48	36.32	37.935889586845	1.7062	1.8962	9.27	11.1662	T	T	9.16	147.16	59	351.07427212063	13.31831482395	0.48190208816688	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.84	31.32	36.08	39.222683159708	1.7057	2.1157	9.27	11.3857	T	T	8.84	151.84	59	351.87969411162	13.801665752475	0.46920470639927	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.89	31.64	36.265	39.213302012029	1.7007	2.1407	9.27	11.4107	T	T	8.89	146.89	59	351.87383184161	13.798134838135	0.47118693846686	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41	31.63	36.315	38.555806868673	1.7961	2.2661	9.27	11.5361	T	T	9	152	59	351.46261559669	13.550924728505	0.4755502935579	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.7	32.24	36.47	37.996398127934	1.7926	2.1126	9.27	11.3826	T	T	8.7	152.7	59	351.11220426996	13.340999101018	0.46365867175247	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.79	32.21	36.5	37.605600950139	1.7784	2.0684	9.27	11.3384	T	T	8.79	153.79	59	350.86711495503	13.194568711526	0.46722323733319	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.85	32.1	36.475	4.2747845887579	1.681	2.011	8.6	10.611	T	T	8.85	149.85	59	329.04243555633	1.4065855325636	0.46960109333774	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.88	31.93	36.405	5.7521152482238	1.5961	1.9861	8.86	10.8461	T	T	8.88	155.88	59	330.04941154477	1.898482252814	0.47079043336123	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.24	31.95	36.595	5.5330313380441	1.4608	1.9608	8.86	10.8208	T	T	9.24	155.24	59	329.90031840963	1.8253488001912	0.48507981029327	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.92	31.68	36.3	5.8753693013062	1.711	2.171	8.86	11.031	T	T	8.92	154.92	59	330.13325314358	1.9396547808602	0.47237662359408	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 08:00:07	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.93	31.61	36.27	7.134721957688	2.0798	2.4198	8.87	11.2898	T	T	8.93	154.93	59	330.98840512369	2.3615102417761	0.47277324060055	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.02	32.92	36.97	3.8117430996248	1.6376	1.9976	8.85	10.8476	T	T	9.02	150.02	59	328.72603932619	1.2530192120686	0.47634396139085	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.68	33.24	37.46	2.2660945556374	1.482	1.672	8.9	10.572	T	T	9.68	147.68	59	327.66719942676	0.74252485668192	0.50256881061928	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-10-31 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	44.37	32.4	38.385	2.816895500151	1.424	1.554	8.94	10.494	T	T	12.37	161.37	59	328.04500007085	0.92406848454661	0.60815178422437	90	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2021-10-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.1	34.14	37.12	1.8158633866842	1.0533	1.2233	8.97	10.1933	T	T	8.1	160.1	59	327.35798789187	0.59443738455147	0.43998304985952	90	2	5	1	4	4	2	64	WET	H
2021-10-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.39	33.46	36.425	1.8536351840375	1.5566	1.7666	8.92	10.6866	T	T	7.39	156.39	59	327.38394254626	0.60685039459268	0.41224814183863	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.87	31.86	35.865	2.8354412921815	1.7101	1.9101	8.88	10.7901	T	T	7.87	153.87	59	328.0577116452	0.93018838181736	0.43095932298166	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.77	31.71	35.24	4.0351059408067	1.7092	1.9192	8.89	10.8092	T	T	6.77	154.77	59	328.87870960399	1.3270604349279	0.38837739172927	90	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-31 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.51	30.57	34.54	185.90859353164	1.1754	1.3154	8.89	10.2054	T	T	6.51	149.51	59	428.40357003543	79.643905169221	0.37848562234251	90	2	5	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-10-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.73	30.61	35.17	185.51730686223	1.2711	1.4011	8.86	10.2611	T	T	7.73	162.73	59	428.23502919398	79.445009320136	0.42548390223066	90	2	5	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-10-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.95	32.25	36.1	186.59938355635	1.3972	1.6972	8.87	10.5672	T	T	7.95	158.95	59	428.70070884366	79.995288000396	0.43409417314333	90	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-10-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.64	32.27	35.955	184.41927866667	1.0466	1.2966	8.86	10.1566	T	T	7.64	156.64	59	427.76117453156	78.887407248717	0.42197149232992	90	2	5	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-10-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	39.58	32.04	35.81	184.48930666667	1.0466	1.1666	8.86	10.0266	T	T	7.58	150.58	59	427.79143462372	78.92294517167	0.41963331056419	90	2	5	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2021-10-30 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.71	32.8	36.755	184.11585556232	0.8572	0.9272	8.84	9.7672	T	T	8.71	158.71	59	427.62999890137	78.733463111842	0.46405459584319	90	2	5	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-10-30 00:00:06	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.76	31.46	35.11	7.4914943170467	0.6255	0.8155	8.41	9.2255	T	T	6.76	146.76	59	331.23017132844	2.4814089461414	0.38799555161363	90	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	WET	H
2021-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.74	31.43	35.085	7.4199057859694	0.6255	0.7555	8.44	9.1955	T	T	6.74	148.74	59	331.18167704626	2.4573368417226	0.38723219641038	90	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	WET	H
2021-10-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.45	30.59	34.52	8.2016123404831	0.5623	0.6323	8.44	9.0723	T	T	6.45	150.45	59	331.71073011745	2.7205628176019	0.3762139028618	90	2	5	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	35.76	31.04	33.4	7.58754570322	0.3233	0.7033	8.54	9.2433	T	T	3.76	139.76	59	331.29522296978	2.5137176455417	0.27977259009256	90	2	5	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-10-29 10:44:44	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.72	30.82	34.77	7.3677712481762	0.3233	0.7033	8.55	9.2533	T	T	6.72	142.72	59	331.14635540695	2.4398105963057	0.38646927689609	90	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	WET	H
2021-10-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	35	115	40.24	30.19	35.215	113.62753842085	0.3233	0.7033	8.71	9.4133	T	T	8.24	138.24	59	394.2453342579	44.797126865631	0.44549136620344	90	2	5	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-10-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	35	115	36.26	30.91	33.585	113.58514318668	0.2861	0.7761	8.9	9.6761	T	T	4.26	138.26	59	394.22340274948	44.777921648842	0.29677922451812	90	2	5	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-10-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	35	115	42.81	34.13	38.47	17.353935548777	0.5632	1.2532	6.19	7.4432	T	T	10.81	155.81	59	337.82743305206	5.8626354997944	0.54738080475825	90	3	5	1	4	2	2	36	WET	L
2021-10-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2022	35	115	42.9	35.13	39.015	18.535732176694	0.5279	1.2279	8.06	9.2879	T	T	10.9	156.9	59	338.60693884265	6.2763275315576	0.55093160859186	90	3	5	1	4	2	2	36	WET	L
2021-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	41.71	36.47	39.09	18.820546776686	0.4552	1.1152	8.09	9.2052	T	T	9.71	151.71	59	338.79445115025	6.3762968155552	0.50376144295344	90	3	5	1	4	2	2	36	WET	L
2021-10-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	35	115	38.81	35.85	37.33	17.612711165855	0.1541	2.3841	8.15	10.5341	T	T	6.81	158.81	59	337.99831999982	5.9530667847011	0.38990582748807	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	35	115	37.17	33.7	35.435	18.035428834659	0.0205	2.3005	8.35	10.6505	T	T	5.17	148.17	59	338.27722742318	6.1009748615764	0.32888367095663	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-28 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	35	115	37.17	33.81	35.49	17.374107909091	0.0163	2.2963	8.54	10.8363	T	T	5.17	153.17	59	337.84075825561	5.869681790022	0.32888367095663	90	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L