Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 3, 2021

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DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.69°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 155 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.27 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.62 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.60 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.22 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 60 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.66 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-04 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2022	34	114	49.44992	36.69008	43.07	5.0327983333333	0.26999999999998	1.62	8.6	10.22	T	T	17.44992	155.44992	60	330.57734239731	1.663729097855	0.8026107538041	92	4	5	1	5	4	2	100	WET	H
2021-11-04 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	34	114	42.29	42.29	42.29	1.943748	0.0215	1.3715	8.6	9.9715	T	T	10.29	148.29	59	327.44585294856	0.63647222177706	0.52324161879834	92	3	5	1	4	4	2	72	WET	H
2021-11-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.59	42.29	46.44	2.0421306666667	0.0665	1.4165	8.6	10.0165	T	T	18.59	156.59	59	327.51342882538	0.66882521674946	0.83578028198374	92	4	5	1	4	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-03 08:49:38	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.81	39.47	45.14	1.9067213333333	0.1119	1.4619	8.6	10.0619	T	T	18.81	156.81	59	327.42041615294	0.6242994924477	0.84173982761695	92	4	5	1	4	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-11-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.75	39.4	45.075	38.876108	0.1129	1.4629	8.6	10.0629	T	T	18.75	156.75	59	351.66302686134	13.671289811868	0.84012871289677	92	4	5	1	4	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	34	114	45.5	38.84	42.17	38.641829	0.141	1.491	8.6	10.091	T	T	13.5	151.5	59	351.51645534996	13.583238758319	0.66043346755417	92	3	5	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2021-11-03 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	34	114	51.04	39.04	45.04	37.549584	0.1587	0.8587	8.6	9.4587	T	T	19.04	157.04	60	351.76904082471	13.208781147047	0.84781699365186	92	4	5	1	3	1	2	15	WET	L
2021-11-02 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	34	114	51.09	39.01	45.05	38.604250666667	0.1183	1.0783	8.6	9.6783	T	T	19.09	162.09	60	352.42750720393	13.605199829929	0.84911739124872	92	5	5	1	4	1	2	22	WET	L
2021-11-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	46.19	39.71	42.95	38.658206666667	0.1495	1.1095	8.6	9.7095	T	T	14.19	157.19	60	352.46114647188	13.62551584228	0.68794497146405	92	3	5	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2021-11-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.83	38.93	44.88	38.027736	0.1793	1.1393	8.6	9.7393	T	T	18.83	161.83	60	352.06778691991	13.388340855094	0.84227449626135	92	4	5	1	4	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	51.8	39.34	45.57	37.845313333333	0.13	0.99	8.6	9.59	T	T	19.8	162.8	60	351.9538532918	13.319803856702	0.86678659256681	92	5	5	1	3	1	2	16.5	WET	L
2021-11-02 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	34	114	51.7	39.92	45.81	37.466376333333	0.1171	0.9571	8.6	9.5571	T	T	19.7	163.7	60	351.71701617093	13.177562090697	0.86438772788031	92	5	5	1	3	1	2	16.5	WET	L
2021-11-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.68	40.89	45.785	3.7736436648765	0.2489	0.3289	8.6	8.9289	T	T	18.68	159.68	60	329.72100828709	1.2442495940993	0.838235602597	92	4	5	1	2	4	2	40	WET	H
2021-11-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.57	40.16	45.365	3.793052	0.3012	0.6512	8.6	9.2512	T	T	18.57	165.57	60	329.7342284269	1.2506990746031	0.83523139846104	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-11-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.17	40.91	45.54	3.7448188150184	0.3251	0.7551	8.6	9.3551	T	T	18.17	165.17	60	329.7013728116	1.2346719042423	0.82400534973982	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-11-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.08	39.18	44.63	3.6182826666667	0.2904	0.7204	8.6	9.3204	T	T	18.08	165.08	60	329.61515943173	1.1926408180424	0.82141441476326	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-11-01 08:00:07	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.17	39.28	44.725	3.521547945129	0.2505	0.6105	8.6	9.2105	T	T	18.17	165.17	60	329.54923208594	1.1605234210711	0.82400534973982	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-11-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	34	114	49.93	40.41	45.17	3.2936295542099	0.2354	0.6054	8.6	9.2054	T	T	17.93	159.93	60	329.39383543866	1.0849012713754	0.81704324463349	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-11-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.13	40.42	45.275	2.4292934553213	0.1307	0.4907	8.6	9.0907	T	T	18.13	157.13	60	328.80370577648	0.79876069052817	0.82285676810717	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-31 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.24	39.34	44.79	2.388940911183	0.0645	0.4745	8.6	9.0745	T	T	18.24	168.24	60	328.77612321393	0.78542673136589	0.82600401931526	92	4	5	1	2	4	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	50.68	39.27	44.975	2.387629852911	0.0902	0.5402	8.6	9.1402	T	T	18.68	170.68	60	328.77522700624	0.78499354689771	0.838235602597	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	47.99	38.71	43.35	2.1038215044308	0.136	0.526	8.6	9.126	T	T	15.99	167.99	60	328.5811522253	0.69127609400223	0.75468888043587	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	44.41	38.42	41.415	2.0891093333333	0.1774	0.4774	8.6	9.0774	T	T	12.41	165.41	60	328.57108788424	0.68642092636244	0.61523109404398	92	3	5	1	2	4	2	36	WET	H
2021-10-31 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	47.41	38.57	42.99	2.5492050247572	0.1431	0.5031	8.6	9.1031	T	T	15.41	167.41	60	328.88565340401	0.83839696022805	0.73404793001219	92	4	5	1	3	4	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-31 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	48.41	38.37	43.39	185.21426767468	0.049	0.429	8.6	9.029	T	T	16.41	162.41	60	428.74838344387	79.410317856257	0.76908124321503	92	4	5	1	2	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-10-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	48.69	37.52	43.105	184.85868554727	0.0642	0.3942	8.6	8.9942	T	T	16.69	173.69	60	428.59554031109	79.229608213332	0.77840849664242	92	4	5	1	2	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-10-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	34	114	46.46	37.97	42.215	185.12150861904	0.2589	0.5689	8.6	9.1689	T	T	14.46	170.46	60	428.7085252743	79.363168956625	0.69844206336021	92	3	5	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	46.34	37.02	41.68	185.06297866667	0.2189	0.5089	8.6	9.1089	T	T	14.34	168.34	60	428.68337037136	79.333421425789	0.69379624863601	92	3	5	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-10-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	43.89	36.09	39.99	185.13978533333	0.0923	0.3823	8.6	8.9823	T	T	11.89	161.89	60	428.71637944318	79.372458458993	0.59305638911956	92	3	5	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-10-30 04:00:14	FORECAST	2022	34	114	48.69	36.23	42.46	184.75479956232	0.0392	0.3092	8.6	8.9092	T	T	16.69	168.69	60	428.55085998065	79.176828237986	0.77840849664242	92	4	5	1	2	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-10-30 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	34	114	46.63	35.55	41.09	7.1818786666667	0.086	0.336	8.26	8.596	T	T	14.63	158.63	60	332.03259150573	2.384617785573	0.7049688040975	92	4	5	1	2	4	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	46.57	35.41	40.99	7.2007933333333	0.049	0.299	8.27	8.569	T	T	14.57	160.57	60	332.04536433416	2.3909900458617	0.7026726752033	92	4	5	1	2	4	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	47.98	35.03	41.505	7.0799253333333	0.0035	0.2435	8.27	8.5135	T	T	15.98	162.98	60	331.96373317624	2.3502784442624	0.75434043513639	92	4	5	1	2	4	2	40	WET	H
2021-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	43.07	35.2	39.135	7.331059821555	0.3528	0.6528	8.27	8.9228	T	T	11.07	155.07	60	332.13331493535	2.4348892005224	0.55750188244481	92	3	5	1	3	4	2	54	WET	H
2021-10-29 10:44:44	FORECAST	2022	34	114	43.02	35.2	39.11	7.3272036946457	0.3528	0.6528	8.28	8.9328	T	T	11.02	155.02	60	332.13071185424	2.4335893790037	0.55531581211871	92	3	5	1	3	4	2	54	WET	H
2021-10-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	34	114	42.97	35.21	39.09	113.46315909082	0.3528	0.7128	8.38	9.0928	T	T	10.97	148.97	60	394.93302767016	44.810348948758	0.55312805810615	92	3	5	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-10-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	34	114	41.68	33.68	37.68	113.40452443359	0.457	0.817	8.57	9.387	T	T	9.68	152.68	60	394.90279713599	44.783763906702	0.49631499821011	92	2	5	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-10-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	42.51	35.96	39.235	18.088327548777	0.6318	0.8318	6.05	6.8818	T	T	10.51	163.51	60	339.29667083936	6.1373093183521	0.5329332931381	92	3	5	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-10-28 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	34	114	38.48	36.36	37.42	19.218464176694	0.6318	0.8518	7.91	8.7618	T	T	6.48	165.48	60	340.03793942692	6.5350069575933	0.35812156628597	92	2	5	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	38.82	36.14	37.48	19.366830776686	0.6146	0.8146	7.94	8.7546	T	T	6.82	160.82	60	340.13509673652	6.5873388597081	0.37227075253233	92	2	5	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-10-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	44.86	37.96	41.41	17.944537832522	2.1439	2.3839	8	10.3839	T	T	12.86	170.86	60	339.20220496144	6.0868267998055	0.63412397483835	92	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2021-10-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	34	114	44.55	37.37	40.96	18.157882167992	2.1923	2.4923	8.14	10.6323	T	T	12.55	161.55	60	339.34235392632	6.1617384772031	0.62114064162291	92	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2021-10-28 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	34	114	44.56	37.32	40.94	17.464253242424	2.1923	2.4923	8.33	10.8223	T	T	12.56	166.56	60	338.88642103089	5.9183982773022	0.62156168919309	92	3	5	1	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2021-10-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2022	34	114	39.67	36.29	37.98	6.0549133800564	0.905	1.085	8.56	9.645	T	T	7.67	164.67	60	331.27045794144	2.005813928207	0.40836687758602	92	2	5	1	4	4	2	64	WET	H
2021-10-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	34	114	42.19	35.01	38.6	6.5669903422372	0.5314	0.7014	8.71	9.4114	T	T	10.19	168.19	60	331.61703101168	2.1777258399751	0.51883141625879	92	3	5	1	3	4	2	54	WET	H
2021-10-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	42.28	35	38.64	6.7504156721482	0.2946	0.4646	8.92	9.3846	T	T	10.28	166.28	60	331.74106344131	2.2393900737493	0.5228007176798	92	3	5	1	2	4	2	36	WET	H
2021-10-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	37.07	33.52	35.295	7.102036752596	0.3334	1.0034	8.77	9.7734	T	T	5.07	146.07	60	331.9786685367	2.3577247050255	0.30167825947253	92	2	5	1	4	4	2	64	WET	H
2021-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	34	114	34.17	31.97	33.07	8.6407004323604	0.0785	0.2085	8.89	9.0985	T	T	2.17	148.17	60	333.01591560474	2.8774907659488	0.20026367650728	92	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	H
2021-10-27 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	34	114	33.87	32.52	33.195	9.1431133488527	0.0202	0.1502	8.89	9.0402	T	T	1.87	151.87	60	333.35372622481	3.0478909041359	0.19108505954898	92	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	WET	H