MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 28, 2021

[ Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, November 29, 2021 ]

DAY 59 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/29/2021 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.735
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 104

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 34
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 314.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-29 07:00:10OBSERVATION20225913940.7800436.6299638.70521.56491750.350000000000023.816.9720.77TT8.78004103.7800434314.95152849895 6.79190372857880.7348474645796389 44152245WETL
2021-11-29 03:00:12OBSERVATION20225913940.7800436.6299638.70521.56491750.350000000000023.816.9720.77TT8.78004103.7800434314.95152849895 6.79190372857880.7348474645796389 44152245WETL
2021-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20225913939.6238.1338.87522.4776053333330.69514.145116.9721.1151TT7.62102.6234315.606707592167.09408301380940.690613343854238934152240WETL
2021-11-28 07:00:12FORECAST20225913939.8938.0438.96522.5119325833330.60454.054516.9721.0245TT7.89102.8934315.631320014317.10547099735060.701193025287368944152245WETL
2021-11-28 03:00:08FORECAST20225913940.7338.0839.40522.344379250.64274.092716.9721.0627TT8.73103.7334315.511165000117.04990112837170.733007543509718944152245WETL
2021-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20225913944.1736.9740.5726.0715960.75343.003416.9719.9734TT12.17106.1734318.171962035918.29525085272770.843130565109938944152245WETL
2021-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20225913943.0937.9340.5125.9178186666670.84583.095816.9720.0658TT11.09105.0934318.062680482318.24349087737440.812287927697468944152245WETL
2021-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20225913942.2938.2140.2525.9939693333330.79393.043916.9720.0139TT10.29104.2934318.1168021368.26911839914120.787190987050328944152245WETL
2021-11-27 11:00:01FORECAST20225913943.5937.8340.7125.3212960.7032.95316.9719.923TT11.59105.5934317.638358671828.04301490088330.827004990525138944152245WETL
2021-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20225913942.8537.0339.9424.8440509166670.50542.745416.9719.7154TT10.85106.8534317.298418809937.88297807269170.804957572391168944152245WETL
2021-11-27 03:00:14FORECAST20225913943.637.1440.3724.6919135833330.34352.683516.9719.6535TT11.6107.634317.189965316727.83202721310090.82729164677148944152245WETL
2021-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20225913942.3237.5239.9228.22880.37951.879516.9718.8495TT10.32106.3234319.700483921869.02476102053330.788166035302138944152245WETL
2021-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20225913942.0537.0539.5528.4041048720610.38652.106516.9719.0765TT10.05105.0534319.82433146249.08432385149470.779296998320598944152245WETL
2021-11-26 15:00:04FORECAST20225913944.8937.3941.1428.2433451910470.5131.99316.9718.963TT12.89110.8934319.710761753389.02970140549320.861730705299648954152250WETL
2021-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20225913942.2137.2339.7228.0460508070450.46962.099616.9719.0696TT10.21108.2134319.571318473888.96271343439280.784578110527148944152245WETL
2021-11-26 07:00:14FORECAST20225913941.6237.7339.67528.304331497631.00482.864816.9719.8348TT9.62107.6234319.753851380699.05041900712270.764743081540938944152245WETL
2021-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20225913944.4737.5741.0229.0315052244080.70562.995616.9719.9656TT12.47106.4734320.267119078159.29783654072330.851071256663358954152250WETL
2021-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20225913943.8137.5940.730.7245801805740.78723.477216.9220.3972TT11.81111.8134321.458490873629.8766771775730.833241555333728944152245WETL
2021-11-25 19:00:05FORECAST20225913941.3537.4339.3930.7220417919850.71243.342416.9220.2624TT9.35109.3534321.456708509319.87580643313690.755340849427098944152245WETL
2021-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20225913941.5237.0239.2729.8449770270730.52273.272716.9220.1927TT9.52108.5234320.840177003989.57546771204580.761284186614198944152245WETL
2021-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20225913941.793638.89529.4757927384960.60873.298716.9220.2187TT9.79108.7934320.580248372379.44935695707970.770559277520428944152245WETL
2021-11-25 07:00:07FORECAST20225913940.9137.7439.32530.1084857047870.33672.396716.8119.2067TT8.91108.9134321.02555443519.66559331658060.739595737082118944152245WETL
2021-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20225913940.4937.7439.11530.3542088174490.2612.28116.7118.991TT8.49104.4934321.198308023049.74972051354270.72409441204728944152245WETL
2021-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20225913946.5336.741.61525.059443179840.30332.453316.7619.2133TT14.53118.5334317.451892923987.9551676730610.8983262037048954152250WETL
2021-11-24 19:00:04FORECAST20225913946.0437.2841.6625.3867334557370.29412.424117.0419.4641TT14.04117.0434317.684937406988.06498282885370.888216881932698954152250WETL
2021-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20225913946.0937.3241.70525.5223860377670.29072.240716.9119.1507TT14.09115.0934317.781470993128.1105413783360.889280124054398954152250WETL
2021-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20225913948.7438.2543.49525.1682077283210.0251.80516.918.705TT16.74115.7434317.529359364797.99164487633370.935766419136788954152250WETL
2021-11-24 07:00:16FORECAST20225913943.8237.3540.58525.7798460681550.03941.309417.1418.4494TT11.82110.8234317.96459419558.19707829348350.833521554385568944142236WETL
2021-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20225913943.8337.3440.58525.216749807260.03961.389616.8918.2796TT11.83115.8334317.563926059138.00793007124450.833801250511068944142236WETL
2021-11-23 23:00:02FORECAST20225913947.8434.0740.95517.92487368544401.716.1317.83TT15.84113.8434312.32333759685.59835637543890.922065326046518954152250WETL
2021-11-23 19:00:06FORECAST20225913947.9234.1441.0317.85643835437101.6816.5418.22TT15.92114.9234312.273692707215.5760959435180.923366150952488954152250WETL
2021-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20225913947.9634.3441.1517.91474045273701.7516.2417.99TT15.96113.9634312.315987212685.59505985015550.924010360384878954152250WETL
2021-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20225913948.8836.4542.66518.63678887120901.816.1817.98TT16.88111.8834312.839269147015.83031940971630.93771872068658954152250WETL
2021-11-23 07:00:08FORECAST20225913948.0336.6942.3619.6674269087410.02041.790416.6918.4804TT16.03111.0334313.584531098216.16740084508580.92512782712488954152250WETL
2021-11-23 03:00:09FORECAST20225913948.0736.8142.4420.2661737493910.02041.830416.9218.7504TT16.07117.0734314.016594261876.36391485950310.925760745700468954152250WETL
2021-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20225913947.3837.6842.5321.9467117236060.03511.685117.3919.0751TT15.38115.3834315.225786849116.91816947182430.914259689670448954152250WETL
2021-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20225913947.3937.6642.52521.0786294429780.03511.885117.1719.0551TT15.39119.3934314.601822635426.63137524141770.914435360244278954152250WETL
2021-11-22 15:00:04FORECAST20225913948.0637.8242.9421.4312850501770.03541.885417.3819.2654TT16.06117.0634314.855472010376.74775737026250.925602899124378954152250WETL
2021-11-22 11:00:07FORECAST20225913950.8337.344.06521.9283728682320.18080.940817.0718.0108TT18.83116.8334315.21261938186.9120998505760.960378419082928954132230WETL
2021-11-22 07:00:10FORECAST20225913950.8237.5244.1721.7600805754370.18080.980817.2518.2308TT18.82116.8234315.091755318356.85642198438320.9602821479098954132230WETL
2021-11-22 03:00:13FORECAST20225913949.9438.3344.13521.8137296356730.18230.972317.2418.2123TT17.94115.9434315.130290579966.87416695872230.951039810394128954132230WETL
2021-11-21 23:00:04FORECAST20225913950.3436.4643.421.43780210495200.4517.6818.13TT18.34113.3434314.860157297996.74990974288850.955433661613688954122220WETL
2021-11-21 19:00:03FORECAST20225913949.3436.2242.7822.1217002782030.00430.504317.9318.4343TT17.34113.3434315.351399401516.97610913987210.943809919647668954132230WETL
2021-11-21 15:00:03FORECAST20225913949.3838.0443.7122.1563648977960.00040.500417.8518.3504TT17.38110.3834315.37627618336.98759185522530.944316650634558954132230WETL
2021-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20225913938.536.8337.66521.6926709023830.42591.345917.6819.0259TT6.598.534315.043328583916.83413124696210.645102508702548934142232WETL
2021-11-21 07:00:18FORECAST2022591393837.3437.6722.3376190600510.39741.317417.9119.2274TT69534315.506316092987.0476598999250.624045994511468934142232WETL
2021-11-21 03:00:10FORECAST20225913940.1239.0739.59522.4805655491970.34141.481417.8819.3614TT8.1292.1234315.608830132857.0950649937070.710073586427938944142236WETL