MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 2, 2021

[ Monday, November 1, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 3, 2021 ]

DAY 33 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.398
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 161

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.68 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-03 04:00:11OBSERVATION20223311338.6700831.9699435.3200139.7571383333330.680000000000061.35000000000018.69.9500000000001TT6.67008160.6700861354.07358439953 14.0769524751510.3977672568159490 25141216WETL
2021-11-03 00:00:01FORECAST20223311339.0439.0439.0438.9615146666670.02820.69828.69.2982TT7.04161.0460352.6501603163513.7397843933680.412660359804729025131212WETL
2021-11-02 12:00:01FORECAST20223311344.1337.5340.8339.4294440.28660.95668.69.5566TT12.13166.1360352.9414765302213.9162861841260.620955914388769035131213.5WETL
2021-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20223311343.9333.3138.6239.2918480.18930.85938.69.4593TT11.93165.9360352.8558500731213.8643584269840.613027360337219035131213.5WETL
2021-11-02 04:00:09FORECAST20223311344.6433.2338.93538.9515603333330.17390.84398.69.4439TT12.64166.6460352.6439593393813.7360324583930.640937821547779035131213.5WETL
2021-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20223311344.9731.5838.2755.25702366487650.08470.08478.68.6847TT12.97163.9761331.742869137661.74398011371070.653668753455159035114218WETH
2021-11-01 20:00:01FORECAST20223311344.4531.5938.025.24324933333330.09360.35368.68.9536TT12.45170.4561331.733556987891.73936175152110.633535189698549035124236WETH
2021-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20223311344.1232.9438.535.21633614835180.16730.42738.69.0273TT12.12170.1261331.715361363721.73033883044510.620560661548399035124236WETH
2021-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20223311344.0733.4738.774.99036133333330.17050.43058.69.0305TT12.07170.0761331.562533906091.6546168487870.61858251512789035124236WETH
2021-11-01 08:00:06FORECAST20223311344.0733.1838.6254.87744527846230.08610.35618.68.9561TT12.07170.0761331.486135559961.61680548676260.61858251512789035124236WETH
2021-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20223311343.6833.6238.654.70621622087660.11790.36798.68.9679TT11.68164.6861331.370241160151.55950000406370.603050336826839035124236WETH
2021-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20223311344.3933.5138.953.85532812198790.05570.35578.68.9557TT12.39162.3961330.793579248191.27531778864860.631187008080039035124236WETH
2021-10-31 20:00:04FORECAST20223311344.7633.0538.9053.82093424451630.07490.41498.69.0149TT12.76172.7661330.770243692111.26385135119020.645586264374169035124236WETH
2021-10-31 16:00:01FORECAST20223311344.1433.7338.9353.76386318624440.08420.45428.69.0542TT12.14175.1461330.731517625471.24482818372120.621351040846919035124236WETH
2021-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20223311344.0434.0439.043.30796417109740.07450.39458.68.9945TT12.04175.0461330.421961735851.09302401076590.61739413543669035124236WETH
2021-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20223311344.5433.3838.963.20726133333330.02050.30058.68.9005TT12.54175.5461330.353536059461.05953012253340.637048087773129035124236WETH
2021-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20223311344.2633.738.983.70474902475720.06570.35578.68.9557TT12.26175.2661330.6913992741.22512863895590.626082560672769035124236WETH
2021-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20223311344.0333.1238.575186.372326341340.0860.3768.68.976TT12.03169.0361429.8848786974480.1186449018080.61699776256163903512129WETL
2021-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20223311345.434.3339.865186.013245547270.06850.32858.68.9285TT13.4180.461429.7315680453579.9357636862350.66999879107555903512129WETL
2021-10-30 16:00:01FORECAST20223311345.7333.7239.725186.219433952380.03540.30548.68.9054TT13.73178.7361429.8196179138380.040765949540.68231718757421903512129WETL
2021-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20223311344.2131.5137.86186.089673333330.03130.29138.68.8913TT12.21177.2161429.7642108388279.9746816053540.62411335503446903512129WETL
2021-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20223311339.1833.936.54186.0938280.03210.29218.68.8921TT7.18173.1861429.7659851417879.9767973192250.41833101847782902512128WETL
2021-10-30 04:00:14FORECAST20223311344.4429.8537.145185.831732895660.03070.27078.68.8707TT12.44175.4461429.6540174367579.8433506058530.63314417019366903512129WETL
2021-10-30 00:00:05FORECAST20223311343.9133.2138.568.15521866666670.0990.2498.268.509TT11.91166.9161333.694968392132.72135543520420.612231844217949035123227WETH
2021-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20223311344.1831.9638.078.14494133333330.08060.25068.278.5206TT12.18169.1861333.688071381232.71786976503330.622930275156729035123227WETH
2021-10-29 16:00:04FORECAST20223311344.633.1738.8858.05326533333330.07030.24038.278.5103TT12.6169.661333.626540609942.6867830537740.639383653621969035123227WETH
2021-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20223311345.6933.2639.4758.16953715488830.030.38.278.57TT13.69166.6961333.704577079642.72621194120840.68083439578239035123227WETH
2021-10-29 10:44:44FORECAST20223311345.6933.2539.478.16409569464570.030.38.288.58TT13.69166.6961333.700925527832.7243662894010.68083439578239035123227WETH
2021-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20223311339.5933.2536.42114.279277757480.03080.36088.388.7408TT7.59160.5961396.1215473381645.2684843339820.43503159587355902512128WETL
2021-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20223311339.5833.2436.41114.059868433590.03080.36088.578.9308TT7.58165.5861396.0090649302345.1687418444510.43462275593052902512128WETL
2021-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20223311343.7430.236.9718.8639382154440.06290.20296.056.2529TF11.74175.7461340.784528625816.42853829277640.605451250965259035122218WETL
2021-10-28 20:00:05FORECAST20223311343.7632.2738.01519.9267255100280.06710.21717.918.1271TT11.76181.7661341.477670646266.80453181077170.606250671514169035122218WETL
2021-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20223311338.932.2635.5820.066728110020.04970.19977.948.1397TT6.9176.961341.568839908836.85416904130540.40700786816639025122216WETL
2021-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20223311344.8933.1339.0118.9739658325220.08740.237488.2374TT12.89180.8961340.85637468466.4673972070630.650597710795939035122218WETL
2021-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20223311344.9931.6738.3319.1314955013250.09390.30398.148.4439TT12.99171.9961340.959203783766.52305947332450.654434948549559035122218WETL
2021-10-28 04:00:14FORECAST20223311344.9931.6838.33518.4362812424240.09390.30398.338.6339TT12.99176.9961340.505085531456.27764752133360.654434948549559035122218WETL
2021-10-28 00:00:06FORECAST20223311344.9533.2339.096.78930538005640.03180.18188.568.7418TT12.95179.9561332.776738296182.25932289967190.652901929338099035124236WETH
2021-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20223311343.9130.5137.217.12459034223720.02340.17348.718.8834TT11.91180.9161333.002427462062.37250587863770.612231844217949035124236WETH
2021-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20223311343.8330.5637.1957.18015033881480.02270.17278.929.0927TT11.83178.8361333.039807803282.39127588883750.609045099080089035124236WETH
2021-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20223311335.9231.5833.757.30337408592930.64030.67038.779.4403TT3.92163.9261333.122692977532.43291964332710.292948963796059025134248WETH
2021-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20223311340.930.4335.6658.68962709902710.13270.13278.899.0227TT8.9168.961334.053356327452.90279909766390.489027104064519025123224WETH
2021-10-27 04:00:14FORECAST20223311341.1231.1436.139.17252401551940.13270.13278.899.0227TT9.12173.1261334.376781193063.06707905572540.498142120335559025123224WETH
2021-10-27 00:00:04FORECAST20223311344.7130.0437.3754.18681815931570.00540.00548.178.1754TT12.71177.7161331.018384111941.38591378166720.643651999625769035114218WETH
2021-10-26 20:00:07FORECAST20223311345.3828.6737.0253.3010046121351008.878.87TT13.38184.3861330.417233409951.09070881141520.66924609288939035114218WETH
2021-10-26 16:00:06FORECAST20223311345.3428.7237.033.9080231783341009.099.09TT13.34181.3461330.829327832991.2928886812440.667738645698229035114218WETH
2021-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20223311334.528.5631.538.50849832163120.32550.58558.879.4555TT2.5159.561333.931941241272.84125936159040.244372932336079015133231.5WETL
2021-10-26 09:32:51FORECAST20223311330.0828.5529.3158.4057074337190.32550.58558.699.2755TT-1.92160.0861333.863013125192.80635481127020.124723966434619015133231.5WETL
2021-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20223311331.4429.1930.315100.506243798760.32780.58788.79.2878TT-0.56161.4461388.9377042115239.0906677220140.156178524898919015131210.5WETL
2021-10-26 04:00:03FORECAST20223311331.3930.0330.71100.851513805250.23070.49079.459.9407TT-0.61156.3961389.1208808477139.2434298867250.154937069197369015131210.5WETL