Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 2, 2021
[
Monday, November 1, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 ]
DAY 33
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.32°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.398
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 161
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.68 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.95 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.08 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-11-03 04:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 38.67008 | 31.96994 | 35.32001 | 39.757138333333 | 0.68000000000006 | 1.3500000000001 | 8.6 | 9.9500000000001 | T | T | 6.67008 | 160.67008 | 61 | 354.07358439953 | 14.076952475151 | 0.39776725681594 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-11-03 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 39.04 | 39.04 | 39.04 | 38.961514666667 | 0.0282 | 0.6982 | 8.6 | 9.2982 | T | T | 7.04 | 161.04 | 60 | 352.65016031635 | 13.739784393368 | 0.41266035980472 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.13 | 37.53 | 40.83 | 39.429444 | 0.2866 | 0.9566 | 8.6 | 9.5566 | T | T | 12.13 | 166.13 | 60 | 352.94147653022 | 13.916286184126 | 0.62095591438876 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.93 | 33.31 | 38.62 | 39.291848 | 0.1893 | 0.8593 | 8.6 | 9.4593 | T | T | 11.93 | 165.93 | 60 | 352.85585007312 | 13.864358426984 | 0.61302736033721 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.64 | 33.23 | 38.935 | 38.951560333333 | 0.1739 | 0.8439 | 8.6 | 9.4439 | T | T | 12.64 | 166.64 | 60 | 352.64395933938 | 13.736032458393 | 0.64093782154777 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.97 | 31.58 | 38.275 | 5.2570236648765 | 0.0847 | 0.0847 | 8.6 | 8.6847 | T | T | 12.97 | 163.97 | 61 | 331.74286913766 | 1.7439801137107 | 0.65366875345515 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.45 | 31.59 | 38.02 | 5.2432493333333 | 0.0936 | 0.3536 | 8.6 | 8.9536 | T | T | 12.45 | 170.45 | 61 | 331.73355698789 | 1.7393617515211 | 0.63353518969854 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.12 | 32.94 | 38.53 | 5.2163361483518 | 0.1673 | 0.4273 | 8.6 | 9.0273 | T | T | 12.12 | 170.12 | 61 | 331.71536136372 | 1.7303388304451 | 0.62056066154839 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.07 | 33.47 | 38.77 | 4.9903613333333 | 0.1705 | 0.4305 | 8.6 | 9.0305 | T | T | 12.07 | 170.07 | 61 | 331.56253390609 | 1.654616848787 | 0.6185825151278 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.07 | 33.18 | 38.625 | 4.8774452784623 | 0.0861 | 0.3561 | 8.6 | 8.9561 | T | T | 12.07 | 170.07 | 61 | 331.48613555996 | 1.6168054867626 | 0.6185825151278 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.68 | 33.62 | 38.65 | 4.7062162208766 | 0.1179 | 0.3679 | 8.6 | 8.9679 | T | T | 11.68 | 164.68 | 61 | 331.37024116015 | 1.5595000040637 | 0.60305033682683 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.39 | 33.51 | 38.95 | 3.8553281219879 | 0.0557 | 0.3557 | 8.6 | 8.9557 | T | T | 12.39 | 162.39 | 61 | 330.79357924819 | 1.2753177886486 | 0.63118700808003 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.76 | 33.05 | 38.905 | 3.8209342445163 | 0.0749 | 0.4149 | 8.6 | 9.0149 | T | T | 12.76 | 172.76 | 61 | 330.77024369211 | 1.2638513511902 | 0.64558626437416 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.14 | 33.73 | 38.935 | 3.7638631862444 | 0.0842 | 0.4542 | 8.6 | 9.0542 | T | T | 12.14 | 175.14 | 61 | 330.73151762547 | 1.2448281837212 | 0.62135104084691 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.04 | 34.04 | 39.04 | 3.3079641710974 | 0.0745 | 0.3945 | 8.6 | 8.9945 | T | T | 12.04 | 175.04 | 61 | 330.42196173585 | 1.0930240107659 | 0.6173941354366 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.54 | 33.38 | 38.96 | 3.2072613333333 | 0.0205 | 0.3005 | 8.6 | 8.9005 | T | T | 12.54 | 175.54 | 61 | 330.35353605946 | 1.0595301225334 | 0.63704808777312 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.26 | 33.7 | 38.98 | 3.7047490247572 | 0.0657 | 0.3557 | 8.6 | 8.9557 | T | T | 12.26 | 175.26 | 61 | 330.691399274 | 1.2251286389559 | 0.62608256067276 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.03 | 33.12 | 38.575 | 186.37232634134 | 0.086 | 0.376 | 8.6 | 8.976 | T | T | 12.03 | 169.03 | 61 | 429.88487869744 | 80.118644901808 | 0.61699776256163 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.4 | 34.33 | 39.865 | 186.01324554727 | 0.0685 | 0.3285 | 8.6 | 8.9285 | T | T | 13.4 | 180.4 | 61 | 429.73156804535 | 79.935763686235 | 0.66999879107555 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.73 | 33.72 | 39.725 | 186.21943395238 | 0.0354 | 0.3054 | 8.6 | 8.9054 | T | T | 13.73 | 178.73 | 61 | 429.81961791383 | 80.04076594954 | 0.68231718757421 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.21 | 31.51 | 37.86 | 186.08967333333 | 0.0313 | 0.2913 | 8.6 | 8.8913 | T | T | 12.21 | 177.21 | 61 | 429.76421083882 | 79.974681605354 | 0.62411335503446 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 39.18 | 33.9 | 36.54 | 186.093828 | 0.0321 | 0.2921 | 8.6 | 8.8921 | T | T | 7.18 | 173.18 | 61 | 429.76598514178 | 79.976797319225 | 0.41833101847782 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.44 | 29.85 | 37.145 | 185.83173289566 | 0.0307 | 0.2707 | 8.6 | 8.8707 | T | T | 12.44 | 175.44 | 61 | 429.65401743675 | 79.843350605853 | 0.63314417019366 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.91 | 33.21 | 38.56 | 8.1552186666667 | 0.099 | 0.249 | 8.26 | 8.509 | T | T | 11.91 | 166.91 | 61 | 333.69496839213 | 2.7213554352042 | 0.61223184421794 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.18 | 31.96 | 38.07 | 8.1449413333333 | 0.0806 | 0.2506 | 8.27 | 8.5206 | T | T | 12.18 | 169.18 | 61 | 333.68807138123 | 2.7178697650333 | 0.62293027515672 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.6 | 33.17 | 38.885 | 8.0532653333333 | 0.0703 | 0.2403 | 8.27 | 8.5103 | T | T | 12.6 | 169.6 | 61 | 333.62654060994 | 2.686783053774 | 0.63938365362196 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.69 | 33.26 | 39.475 | 8.1695371548883 | 0.03 | 0.3 | 8.27 | 8.57 | T | T | 13.69 | 166.69 | 61 | 333.70457707964 | 2.7262119412084 | 0.6808343957823 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.69 | 33.25 | 39.47 | 8.1640956946457 | 0.03 | 0.3 | 8.28 | 8.58 | T | T | 13.69 | 166.69 | 61 | 333.70092552783 | 2.724366289401 | 0.6808343957823 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 39.59 | 33.25 | 36.42 | 114.27927775748 | 0.0308 | 0.3608 | 8.38 | 8.7408 | T | T | 7.59 | 160.59 | 61 | 396.12154733816 | 45.268484333982 | 0.43503159587355 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 39.58 | 33.24 | 36.41 | 114.05986843359 | 0.0308 | 0.3608 | 8.57 | 8.9308 | T | T | 7.58 | 165.58 | 61 | 396.00906493023 | 45.168741844451 | 0.43462275593052 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.74 | 30.2 | 36.97 | 18.863938215444 | 0.0629 | 0.2029 | 6.05 | 6.2529 | T | F | 11.74 | 175.74 | 61 | 340.78452862581 | 6.4285382927764 | 0.60545125096525 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.76 | 32.27 | 38.015 | 19.926725510028 | 0.0671 | 0.2171 | 7.91 | 8.1271 | T | T | 11.76 | 181.76 | 61 | 341.47767064626 | 6.8045318107717 | 0.60625067151416 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 38.9 | 32.26 | 35.58 | 20.06672811002 | 0.0497 | 0.1997 | 7.94 | 8.1397 | T | T | 6.9 | 176.9 | 61 | 341.56883990883 | 6.8541690413054 | 0.4070078681663 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.89 | 33.13 | 39.01 | 18.973965832522 | 0.0874 | 0.2374 | 8 | 8.2374 | T | T | 12.89 | 180.89 | 61 | 340.8563746846 | 6.467397207063 | 0.65059771079593 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.99 | 31.67 | 38.33 | 19.131495501325 | 0.0939 | 0.3039 | 8.14 | 8.4439 | T | T | 12.99 | 171.99 | 61 | 340.95920378376 | 6.5230594733245 | 0.65443494854955 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.99 | 31.68 | 38.335 | 18.436281242424 | 0.0939 | 0.3039 | 8.33 | 8.6339 | T | T | 12.99 | 176.99 | 61 | 340.50508553145 | 6.2776475213336 | 0.65443494854955 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.95 | 33.23 | 39.09 | 6.7893053800564 | 0.0318 | 0.1818 | 8.56 | 8.7418 | T | T | 12.95 | 179.95 | 61 | 332.77673829618 | 2.2593228996719 | 0.65290192933809 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.91 | 30.51 | 37.21 | 7.1245903422372 | 0.0234 | 0.1734 | 8.71 | 8.8834 | T | T | 11.91 | 180.91 | 61 | 333.00242746206 | 2.3725058786377 | 0.61223184421794 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 43.83 | 30.56 | 37.195 | 7.1801503388148 | 0.0227 | 0.1727 | 8.92 | 9.0927 | T | T | 11.83 | 178.83 | 61 | 333.03980780328 | 2.3912758888375 | 0.60904509908008 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 35.92 | 31.58 | 33.75 | 7.3033740859293 | 0.6403 | 0.6703 | 8.77 | 9.4403 | T | T | 3.92 | 163.92 | 61 | 333.12269297753 | 2.4329196433271 | 0.29294896379605 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 40.9 | 30.43 | 35.665 | 8.6896270990271 | 0.1327 | 0.1327 | 8.89 | 9.0227 | T | T | 8.9 | 168.9 | 61 | 334.05335632745 | 2.9027990976639 | 0.48902710406451 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 41.12 | 31.14 | 36.13 | 9.1725240155194 | 0.1327 | 0.1327 | 8.89 | 9.0227 | T | T | 9.12 | 173.12 | 61 | 334.37678119306 | 3.0670790557254 | 0.49814212033555 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 44.71 | 30.04 | 37.375 | 4.1868181593157 | 0.0054 | 0.0054 | 8.17 | 8.1754 | T | T | 12.71 | 177.71 | 61 | 331.01838411194 | 1.3859137816672 | 0.64365199962576 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 20:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.38 | 28.67 | 37.025 | 3.3010046121351 | 0 | 0 | 8.87 | 8.87 | T | T | 13.38 | 184.38 | 61 | 330.41723340995 | 1.0907088114152 | 0.6692460928893 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 45.34 | 28.72 | 37.03 | 3.9080231783341 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 | 9.09 | T | T | 13.34 | 181.34 | 61 | 330.82932783299 | 1.292888681244 | 0.66773864569822 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 34.5 | 28.56 | 31.53 | 8.5084983216312 | 0.3255 | 0.5855 | 8.87 | 9.4555 | T | T | 2.5 | 159.5 | 61 | 333.93194124127 | 2.8412593615904 | 0.24437293233607 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 09:32:51 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 30.08 | 28.55 | 29.315 | 8.405707433719 | 0.3255 | 0.5855 | 8.69 | 9.2755 | T | T | -1.92 | 160.08 | 61 | 333.86301312519 | 2.8063548112702 | 0.12472396643461 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 31.44 | 29.19 | 30.315 | 100.50624379876 | 0.3278 | 0.5878 | 8.7 | 9.2878 | T | T | -0.56 | 161.44 | 61 | 388.93770421152 | 39.090667722014 | 0.15617852489891 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 33 | 113 | 31.39 | 30.03 | 30.71 | 100.85151380525 | 0.2307 | 0.4907 | 9.45 | 9.9407 | T | T | -0.61 | 156.39 | 61 | 389.12088084771 | 39.243429886725 | 0.15493706919736 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |