MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 1, 2021

[ Sunday, October 31, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 2, 2021 ]

DAY 32 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/02/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.332
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 165

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.67 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-02 04:00:08OBSERVATION20223211236.5700230.8100233.6900239.7177683333330.669999999999960.669999999999968.619.28TT4.57002164.5700262354.97407525055 14.098778085140.3319377234242890 25131212WETL
2021-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20223211233.7833.7833.786.00062206275860.00310.00318.618.6131TT1.78161.7861332.245096300991.99367725510710.226979667274899015114214WETH
2021-11-01 12:00:01FORECAST20223211240.5733.5137.045.69638133333330.26280.26288.618.8728TT8.57168.5761332.039726433371.89142489958010.50635419027249035124236WETH
2021-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20223211240.533.3936.9455.6525639451290.27250.27258.618.8825TT8.5168.561332.010135557571.87670852167010.503209288092089035124236WETH
2021-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20223211235.8533.1134.485.46848822087660.25210.25218.618.8621TT3.85163.8561331.885789062391.8149135281640.303044471686649025124232WETH
2021-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20223211240.1633.336.734.64072412198790.30430.30438.618.9143TT8.16161.1662332.336959614751.54228414511230.487934786428319025124232WETH
2021-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20223211240.1733.3836.7754.59004395665530.3410.3418.618.951TT8.17171.1762332.302772116221.52528433093190.488383893670559025124232WETH
2021-10-31 16:00:01FORECAST20223211242.5833.4438.014.52271380092290.36680.36688.618.9768TT10.58173.5862332.257346167091.50270488496790.595727258850669035124236WETH
2021-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20223211242.9432.5537.7454.08082927787540.31510.31518.618.9251TT10.94173.9462331.959025003991.35466810829120.611353222889269035124236WETH
2021-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20223211242.5932.5637.5754.00654266666670.27590.27598.618.8859TT10.59173.5962331.908840400831.32980693050980.596163508055739035124236WETH
2021-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20223211243.6732.3438.0054.43403098117330.28660.28668.618.8966TT11.67173.6762332.197502260741.47297401689250.642468264993949035124236WETH
2021-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20223211243.6632.3538.005186.991509333330.28820.28828.618.8982TT11.66167.6662430.7851570667980.5531667183160.6420478306839903512129WETL
2021-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20223211244.133.2538.675186.8313360.25850.25858.618.8685TT12.1178.162430.7171541873180.4714613549330.66037750381359903512129WETL
2021-10-30 16:00:01FORECAST20223211242.9232.3537.635186.938920.26770.26778.618.8777TT10.92175.9262430.7628328920580.526338756980.6104895692705903512129WETL
2021-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20223211243.0332.0537.54186.726321333330.25670.25678.618.8667TT11.03176.0362430.6725543462680.4179017723060.61523280109948903512129WETL
2021-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20223211243.6232.3637.99186.636613333330.25830.25838.618.8683TT11.62176.6262430.6344458399380.3721545562410.6403643752445903512129WETL
2021-10-30 04:00:14FORECAST20223211243.5331.8837.705186.399020315790.23960.23968.618.8496TT11.53173.5362430.5334729106380.2510175636960.63656667587991903512129WETL
2021-10-30 00:00:05FORECAST20223211243.8331.9337.888.7335920.15220.15228.278.4222TT11.83165.8362335.083421600382.92648189022170.649171408628829035123227WETH
2021-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20223211242.7432.1237.438.76436933333330.1730.1738.288.453TT10.74167.7462335.103966332672.93697492600440.602692608690319035123227WETH
2021-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20223211242.7632.4537.6058.70942933333330.17480.17488.288.4548TT10.76167.7662335.067291217982.91824489477440.603561029110939035123227WETH
2021-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20223211238.8132.7335.778.87123848822170.26980.26988.288.5498TT6.81163.8162335.175292018312.97341995085370.427677494700769025123224WETH
2021-10-29 10:44:44FORECAST20223211238.8132.7335.778.8656330279790.26980.26988.298.5598TT6.81163.8162335.17155135172.97150797570260.427677494700769025123224WETH
2021-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20223211237.3132.6834.995114.856229757480.32680.32688.398.7168TT5.31164.3162397.1812110663645.6187364335940.3627089043147902512128WETL
2021-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20223211239.2232.4535.835114.647863100260.3270.3278.588.907TT7.22169.2262397.0749522681945.5237947681840.44586546689042902512128WETL
2021-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20223211243.6432.5338.08519.3756589013530.13940.13946.066.1994TF11.64174.6462342.092420723276.62826605667240.641206445678259035122218WETL
2021-10-28 20:00:05FORECAST20223211243.1531.4137.2820.4758521766940.14730.14737.928.0673TT11.15181.1562342.806274786777.01925060777710.620387619714129035122218WETL
2021-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20223211243.1931.7437.46520.4619134433530.14730.14737.958.0973TT11.19181.1962342.797243191027.01428751879470.622101200970579035122218WETL
2021-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20223211243.1130.4536.7819.7503964991890.14640.14648.018.1564TT11.11179.1162342.335791103986.76126761016710.618671671580699035122218WETL
2021-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20223211237.4129.633.50519.7412475013250.21270.21278.158.3627TT5.41170.4162342.329852117726.75801833774790.366941530091169025122216WETL
2021-10-28 04:00:14FORECAST20223211237.429.6133.50519.0441199090910.21270.21278.348.5527TT5.4175.462341.876912120046.51074490856370.366517529320529025122216WETL
2021-10-28 00:00:06FORECAST20223211239.929.3434.627.43726938005640.14580.14588.578.7158TT7.9177.962334.21662986682.4856591076140.476265031429569025124232WETH
2021-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20223211238.8129.7534.287.56657034223720.15460.15468.728.8746TT6.81179.8162334.303215711782.52952879731930.427677494700769025123224WETH
2021-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20223211238.8429.8534.3457.62218500548150.14970.14978.939.0797TT6.84177.8462334.340449091732.54840475779290.429003607000499025123224WETH
2021-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20223211240.4230.2735.3457.54341541926260.02780.02788.788.8078TT8.42171.4262334.287712205252.52167108271910.499614881334959035113213.5WETH
2021-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20223211241.6130.6136.118.6154826612835008.98.9TT9.61170.6162335.004565398252.88622602463940.552925985693869035113213.5WETH
2021-10-27 04:00:14FORECAST20223211241.630.6136.1059.1133791170567008.98.9TT9.6174.662335.3368278063.05605164370720.552480606862339035113213.5WETH
2021-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20223211241.2729.435.3354.7161008259823008.188.18TT9.27176.2762332.387798605241.56757437154860.537749312781339035114218WETH
2021-10-26 20:00:06FORECAST20223211241.228.2434.723.7573619454685008.888.88TT9.2182.262331.740436246151.24646889092440.534617129565549035114218WETH
2021-10-26 16:00:05FORECAST20223211241.1828.234.694.2140471783341009.19.1TT9.18179.1862332.048997150811.3992701395120.533721817452429035114218WETH
2021-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20223211238.1628.5133.3356.70792530972280.25890.25898.889.1389TT6.16168.1662333.727694729932.23862045003440.399170001724389025124232WETH
2021-10-26 09:32:51FORECAST20223211238.1528.6533.46.53192592922290.25890.25898.78.9589TT6.15173.1562333.609573157792.17911302114640.398735185606219025124232WETH
2021-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20223211239.2427.5133.37599.1364778122720.26110.26118.718.9711TT7.24173.2462389.0047273937338.5645585261380.44675592739366902512128WETL
2021-10-26 04:00:03FORECAST20223211239.2427.4533.34599.8401659405970.26110.26119.469.7211TT7.24168.2462389.377766608738.8755408317910.44675592739366902512128WETL
2021-10-26 00:00:04FORECAST20223211240.3227.1433.7312.9719179263450.12990.12999.019.1399TT8.32176.3262337.897558727724.38317939932810.495121951044949025123224WETH
2021-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20223211240.3227.233.7611.4371526449940.09050.09051010.0905TT8.32176.3262336.882012050433.85297099517340.495121951044949025123224WETH
2021-10-25 16:00:05FORECAST20223211240.7927.3434.06514.1256362920040.00190.001911.1511.1519TT8.79176.7962338.658366193874.7837649080990.51623468945579035113213.5WETH
2021-10-25 12:00:04FORECAST20223211234.8528.2531.5518.8315588654220012.0712.07TT2.85165.8562341.738646639986.43547144079050.2649039642479902511228WETL
2021-10-25 08:00:06FORECAST20223211231.430.1630.7816.1550623173690010.7210.72TT-0.6169.462339.991251667065.49257985804150.15457442913837901511227WETL
2021-10-25 04:00:12FORECAST20223211231.3230.6730.99514.8771738143110010.8310.83TT-0.68172.3262339.152761896935.04563458834430.1524394693755901511227WETL