Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 1, 2021
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Tuesday, November 2, 2021 ]
DAY 32
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/02/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.69°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.332
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 165
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.67 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.28 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.10 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 112
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-11-02 04:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 36.57002 | 30.81002 | 33.69002 | 39.717768333333 | 0.66999999999996 | 0.66999999999996 | 8.61 | 9.28 | T | T | 4.57002 | 164.57002 | 62 | 354.97407525055 | 14.09877808514 | 0.33193772342428 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2021-11-02 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 33.78 | 33.78 | 33.78 | 6.0006220627586 | 0.0031 | 0.0031 | 8.61 | 8.6131 | T | T | 1.78 | 161.78 | 61 | 332.24509630099 | 1.9936772551071 | 0.22697966727489 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.57 | 33.51 | 37.04 | 5.6963813333333 | 0.2628 | 0.2628 | 8.61 | 8.8728 | T | T | 8.57 | 168.57 | 61 | 332.03972643337 | 1.8914248995801 | 0.5063541902724 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.5 | 33.39 | 36.945 | 5.652563945129 | 0.2725 | 0.2725 | 8.61 | 8.8825 | T | T | 8.5 | 168.5 | 61 | 332.01013555757 | 1.8767085216701 | 0.50320928809208 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 35.85 | 33.11 | 34.48 | 5.4684882208766 | 0.2521 | 0.2521 | 8.61 | 8.8621 | T | T | 3.85 | 163.85 | 61 | 331.88578906239 | 1.814913528164 | 0.30304447168664 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-11-01 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.16 | 33.3 | 36.73 | 4.6407241219879 | 0.3043 | 0.3043 | 8.61 | 8.9143 | T | T | 8.16 | 161.16 | 62 | 332.33695961475 | 1.5422841451123 | 0.48793478642831 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.17 | 33.38 | 36.775 | 4.5900439566553 | 0.341 | 0.341 | 8.61 | 8.951 | T | T | 8.17 | 171.17 | 62 | 332.30277211622 | 1.5252843309319 | 0.48838389367055 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.58 | 33.44 | 38.01 | 4.5227138009229 | 0.3668 | 0.3668 | 8.61 | 8.9768 | T | T | 10.58 | 173.58 | 62 | 332.25734616709 | 1.5027048849679 | 0.59572725885066 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.94 | 32.55 | 37.745 | 4.0808292778754 | 0.3151 | 0.3151 | 8.61 | 8.9251 | T | T | 10.94 | 173.94 | 62 | 331.95902500399 | 1.3546681082912 | 0.61135322288926 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.59 | 32.56 | 37.575 | 4.0065426666667 | 0.2759 | 0.2759 | 8.61 | 8.8859 | T | T | 10.59 | 173.59 | 62 | 331.90884040083 | 1.3298069305098 | 0.59616350805573 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.67 | 32.34 | 38.005 | 4.4340309811733 | 0.2866 | 0.2866 | 8.61 | 8.8966 | T | T | 11.67 | 173.67 | 62 | 332.19750226074 | 1.4729740168925 | 0.64246826499394 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
2021-10-31 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.66 | 32.35 | 38.005 | 186.99150933333 | 0.2882 | 0.2882 | 8.61 | 8.8982 | T | T | 11.66 | 167.66 | 62 | 430.78515706679 | 80.553166718316 | 0.6420478306839 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 44.1 | 33.25 | 38.675 | 186.831336 | 0.2585 | 0.2585 | 8.61 | 8.8685 | T | T | 12.1 | 178.1 | 62 | 430.71715418731 | 80.471461354933 | 0.66037750381359 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.92 | 32.35 | 37.635 | 186.93892 | 0.2677 | 0.2677 | 8.61 | 8.8777 | T | T | 10.92 | 175.92 | 62 | 430.76283289205 | 80.52633875698 | 0.6104895692705 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.03 | 32.05 | 37.54 | 186.72632133333 | 0.2567 | 0.2567 | 8.61 | 8.8667 | T | T | 11.03 | 176.03 | 62 | 430.67255434626 | 80.417901772306 | 0.61523280109948 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.62 | 32.36 | 37.99 | 186.63661333333 | 0.2583 | 0.2583 | 8.61 | 8.8683 | T | T | 11.62 | 176.62 | 62 | 430.63444583993 | 80.372154556241 | 0.6403643752445 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.53 | 31.88 | 37.705 | 186.39902031579 | 0.2396 | 0.2396 | 8.61 | 8.8496 | T | T | 11.53 | 173.53 | 62 | 430.53347291063 | 80.251017563696 | 0.63656667587991 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.83 | 31.93 | 37.88 | 8.733592 | 0.1522 | 0.1522 | 8.27 | 8.4222 | T | T | 11.83 | 165.83 | 62 | 335.08342160038 | 2.9264818902217 | 0.64917140862882 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.74 | 32.12 | 37.43 | 8.7643693333333 | 0.173 | 0.173 | 8.28 | 8.453 | T | T | 10.74 | 167.74 | 62 | 335.10396633267 | 2.9369749260044 | 0.60269260869031 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 42.76 | 32.45 | 37.605 | 8.7094293333333 | 0.1748 | 0.1748 | 8.28 | 8.4548 | T | T | 10.76 | 167.76 | 62 | 335.06729121798 | 2.9182448947744 | 0.60356102911093 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.81 | 32.73 | 35.77 | 8.8712384882217 | 0.2698 | 0.2698 | 8.28 | 8.5498 | T | T | 6.81 | 163.81 | 62 | 335.17529201831 | 2.9734199508537 | 0.42767749470076 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.81 | 32.73 | 35.77 | 8.865633027979 | 0.2698 | 0.2698 | 8.29 | 8.5598 | T | T | 6.81 | 163.81 | 62 | 335.1715513517 | 2.9715079757026 | 0.42767749470076 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-29 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 37.31 | 32.68 | 34.995 | 114.85622975748 | 0.3268 | 0.3268 | 8.39 | 8.7168 | T | T | 5.31 | 164.31 | 62 | 397.18121106636 | 45.618736433594 | 0.3627089043147 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 39.22 | 32.45 | 35.835 | 114.64786310026 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 8.58 | 8.907 | T | T | 7.22 | 169.22 | 62 | 397.07495226819 | 45.523794768184 | 0.44586546689042 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.64 | 32.53 | 38.085 | 19.375658901353 | 0.1394 | 0.1394 | 6.06 | 6.1994 | T | F | 11.64 | 174.64 | 62 | 342.09242072327 | 6.6282660566724 | 0.64120644567825 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.15 | 31.41 | 37.28 | 20.475852176694 | 0.1473 | 0.1473 | 7.92 | 8.0673 | T | T | 11.15 | 181.15 | 62 | 342.80627478677 | 7.0192506077771 | 0.62038761971412 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.19 | 31.74 | 37.465 | 20.461913443353 | 0.1473 | 0.1473 | 7.95 | 8.0973 | T | T | 11.19 | 181.19 | 62 | 342.79724319102 | 7.0142875187947 | 0.62210120097057 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 43.11 | 30.45 | 36.78 | 19.750396499189 | 0.1464 | 0.1464 | 8.01 | 8.1564 | T | T | 11.11 | 179.11 | 62 | 342.33579110398 | 6.7612676101671 | 0.61867167158069 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 37.41 | 29.6 | 33.505 | 19.741247501325 | 0.2127 | 0.2127 | 8.15 | 8.3627 | T | T | 5.41 | 170.41 | 62 | 342.32985211772 | 6.7580183377479 | 0.36694153009116 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 37.4 | 29.61 | 33.505 | 19.044119909091 | 0.2127 | 0.2127 | 8.34 | 8.5527 | T | T | 5.4 | 175.4 | 62 | 341.87691212004 | 6.5107449085637 | 0.36651752932052 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 39.9 | 29.34 | 34.62 | 7.4372693800564 | 0.1458 | 0.1458 | 8.57 | 8.7158 | T | T | 7.9 | 177.9 | 62 | 334.2166298668 | 2.485659107614 | 0.47626503142956 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.81 | 29.75 | 34.28 | 7.5665703422372 | 0.1546 | 0.1546 | 8.72 | 8.8746 | T | T | 6.81 | 179.81 | 62 | 334.30321571178 | 2.5295287973193 | 0.42767749470076 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.84 | 29.85 | 34.345 | 7.6221850054815 | 0.1497 | 0.1497 | 8.93 | 9.0797 | T | T | 6.84 | 177.84 | 62 | 334.34044909173 | 2.5484047577929 | 0.42900360700049 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.42 | 30.27 | 35.345 | 7.5434154192626 | 0.0278 | 0.0278 | 8.78 | 8.8078 | T | T | 8.42 | 171.42 | 62 | 334.28771220525 | 2.5216710827191 | 0.49961488133495 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 41.61 | 30.61 | 36.11 | 8.6154826612835 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | T | T | 9.61 | 170.61 | 62 | 335.00456539825 | 2.8862260246394 | 0.55292598569386 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 41.6 | 30.61 | 36.105 | 9.1133791170567 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | T | T | 9.6 | 174.6 | 62 | 335.336827806 | 3.0560516437072 | 0.55248060686233 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 41.27 | 29.4 | 35.335 | 4.7161008259823 | 0 | 0 | 8.18 | 8.18 | T | T | 9.27 | 176.27 | 62 | 332.38779860524 | 1.5675743715486 | 0.53774931278133 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 41.2 | 28.24 | 34.72 | 3.7573619454685 | 0 | 0 | 8.88 | 8.88 | T | T | 9.2 | 182.2 | 62 | 331.74043624615 | 1.2464688909244 | 0.53461712956554 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 41.18 | 28.2 | 34.69 | 4.2140471783341 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | T | T | 9.18 | 179.18 | 62 | 332.04899715081 | 1.399270139512 | 0.53372181745242 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 18 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.16 | 28.51 | 33.335 | 6.7079253097228 | 0.2589 | 0.2589 | 8.88 | 9.1389 | T | T | 6.16 | 168.16 | 62 | 333.72769472993 | 2.2386204500344 | 0.39917000172438 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 09:32:51 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 38.15 | 28.65 | 33.4 | 6.5319259292229 | 0.2589 | 0.2589 | 8.7 | 8.9589 | T | T | 6.15 | 173.15 | 62 | 333.60957315779 | 2.1791130211464 | 0.39873518560621 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 32 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 39.24 | 27.51 | 33.375 | 99.136477812272 | 0.2611 | 0.2611 | 8.71 | 8.9711 | T | T | 7.24 | 173.24 | 62 | 389.00472739373 | 38.564558526138 | 0.44675592739366 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 39.24 | 27.45 | 33.345 | 99.840165940597 | 0.2611 | 0.2611 | 9.46 | 9.7211 | T | T | 7.24 | 168.24 | 62 | 389.3777666087 | 38.875540831791 | 0.44675592739366 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.32 | 27.14 | 33.73 | 12.971917926345 | 0.1299 | 0.1299 | 9.01 | 9.1399 | T | T | 8.32 | 176.32 | 62 | 337.89755872772 | 4.3831793993281 | 0.49512195104494 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-25 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.32 | 27.2 | 33.76 | 11.437152644994 | 0.0905 | 0.0905 | 10 | 10.0905 | T | T | 8.32 | 176.32 | 62 | 336.88201205043 | 3.8529709951734 | 0.49512195104494 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 24 | WET | H |
2021-10-25 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 40.79 | 27.34 | 34.065 | 14.125636292004 | 0.0019 | 0.0019 | 11.15 | 11.1519 | T | T | 8.79 | 176.79 | 62 | 338.65836619387 | 4.783764908099 | 0.5162346894557 | 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-25 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 34.85 | 28.25 | 31.55 | 18.831558865422 | 0 | 0 | 12.07 | 12.07 | T | T | 2.85 | 165.85 | 62 | 341.73864663998 | 6.4354714407905 | 0.2649039642479 | 90 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 31.4 | 30.16 | 30.78 | 16.155062317369 | 0 | 0 | 10.72 | 10.72 | T | T | -0.6 | 169.4 | 62 | 339.99125166706 | 5.4925798580415 | 0.15457442913837 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 32 | 112 | 31.32 | 30.67 | 30.995 | 14.877173814311 | 0 | 0 | 10.83 | 10.83 | T | T | -0.68 | 172.32 | 62 | 339.15276189693 | 5.0456345883443 | 0.1524394693755 | 90 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |