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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 9, 2021

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DAY 9 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/10/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 36.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 30.27°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 33.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.115 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 303 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.19 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.19 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 4.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 85 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.68 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 89 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 35.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-10 04:00:09	OBSERVATION	2022	9	89	36.30002	30.27002	33.28502	0.18999999999994	0.18999999999994	3.85	4.0399999999999	T	F	4.30002	303.30002	85	351.67649212947	0.11533421266397	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	39.63	39.63	39.63	0.0583	0.0583	3.85	3.9083	T	F	7.63	306.63	84	350.7390628119	0.18229170417083	94	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.14	38.25	41.195	0.1769	0.1769	3.85	4.0269	T	F	12.14	311.14	84	350.7390628119	0.30450189015851	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.37	33.11	38.24	0.1326	0.1326	3.85	3.9826	T	F	11.37	310.37	84	350.7390628119	0.28131041078844	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	9	89	41.93	32.4	37.165	0.1195	0.1195	3.85	3.9695	T	F	9.93	308.93	84	350.7390628119	0.24036917320116	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-10-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	46.93	33.93	40.43	0.0771	0.0771	3.85	3.9271	T	F	14.93	303.93	85	351.67649212947	0.39470113235858	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.11	32.71	39.91	0.0593	0.0593	3.85	3.9093	T	F	15.11	315.11	85	351.67649212947	0.4007837871271	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-08 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.09	33.34	40.215	0.0839	0.0839	3.85	3.9339	T	F	15.09	315.09	85	351.67649212947	0.40010671827154	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	46.79	33.39	40.09	0.0715	0.0715	3.85	3.9215	T	F	14.79	314.79	85	351.67649212947	0.38998777506746	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.02	31.93	39.475	0.0417	0.0417	3.85	3.8917	T	F	15.02	317.02	85	351.67649212947	0.39773935298534	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.63	32.87	39.25	0.1058	0.1058	3.85	3.9558	T	F	13.63	312.63	85	351.67649212947	0.35161363045727	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.46	32.78	38.62	0.1172	0.1172	3.85	3.9672	T	F	12.46	304.46	85	351.67649212947	0.31438366381084	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.81	33.85	39.33	0.0834	0.0834	3.85	3.9334	T	F	12.81	315.81	85	351.67649212947	0.32534589236847	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.31	34.42	39.865	0.1365	0.1365	3.85	3.9865	T	F	13.31	316.31	85	351.67649212947	0.34126977472061	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.23	34.42	39.825	0.141	0.141	3.85	3.991	T	F	13.23	316.23	85	351.67649212947	0.33870196142975	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.72	34.25	38.985	0.0762	0.0762	3.85	3.9262	T	F	11.72	314.72	85	351.67649212947	0.29174623582445	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-07 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.92	32.18	38.05	0.0731	0.0731	3.85	3.9231	T	F	11.92	309.92	85	351.67649212947	0.29778935923208	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.76	34.22	38.99	0.2256	0.2256	3.74	3.9656	T	F	11.76	309.76	85	351.67649212947	0.29295028451621	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.58	35.01	39.795	0.1957	0.1957	3.82	4.0157	T	F	12.58	317.58	85	351.67649212947	0.31812438358814	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	46.24	35.03	40.635	0.1111	0.1111	3.82	3.9311	T	F	14.24	319.24	85	351.67649212947	0.37163312100156	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	41.16	34.01	37.585	0.0812	0.0912	3.82	3.9112	T	F	9.16	314.16	85	351.67649212947	0.21988424234258	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	41.16	34.44	37.8	0.1671	0.2071	3.83	4.0371	T	F	9.16	306.16	85	351.67649212947	0.21988424234258	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-06 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.96	34.03	39.495	0.214	0.234	3.9	4.134	T	F	12.96	317.96	85	351.67649212947	0.33009134901622	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.13	34.49	38.81	0.3298	0.3698	3.92	4.2898	T	F	11.13	317.13	85	351.67649212947	0.27426003107143	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	40.7	32.94	36.82	0.1983	0.2483	4.17	4.4183	T	F	8.7	324.7	85	351.67649212947	0.20813964836815	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.11	33.54	38.325	0.3155	0.3355	4.13	4.4655	T	F	11.11	327.11	85	351.67649212947	0.27367645681224	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	43.31	34.57	38.94	0.1093	0.1593	4.1	4.2593	T	F	11.31	324.31	85	351.67649212947	0.27953964925945	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	40.61	33.99	37.3	0.1127	0.1827	4.14	4.3227	T	F	8.61	323.61	85	351.67649212947	0.20588578810469	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	9	89	40.61	33.99	37.3	0.1127	0.1927	4.14	4.3327	T	F	8.61	321.61	85	351.67649212947	0.20588578810469	94	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.26	33.65	39.455	0.0389	0.2389	4.18	4.4189	T	F	13.26	313.26	85	351.67649212947	0.3396640215257	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.29	34.32	39.805	0.0148	0.1748	4.19	4.3648	T	F	13.29	328.29	85	351.67649212947	0.34062712671206	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	46.28	34.29	40.285	0.0267	0.2167	4.16	4.3767	T	F	14.28	325.28	85	351.67649212947	0.37295877564882	94	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2021-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	48.76	33.34	41.05	0.0359	0.0659	4.12	4.1859	T	F	16.76	332.76	85	351.67649212947	0.45748202405351	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-10-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	48.22	33.33	40.775	0.0076	0.0176	4.1	4.1176	T	F	16.22	330.22	85	351.67649212947	0.43877209273994	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-10-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	9	89	50.07	31.83	40.95	0	0.01	4.07	4.08	T	F	18.07	340.07	85	351.67649212947	0.50318200002499	94	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-10-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	51.51	32.38	41.945	0	0.02	4.2	4.22	T	F	19.51	339.51	85	351.67649212947	0.55334601329183	94	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	9	89	50.78	31.99	41.385	0	0.02	4.2	4.22	T	F	18.78	350.78	85	351.67649212947	0.52797158227888	94	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-10-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	50.74	32.03	41.385	0	0.01	4.21	4.22	T	F	18.74	349.74	85	351.67649212947	0.52657696342292	94	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.77	31.2	39.485	0	0	4.1	4.1	T	F	15.77	345.77	85	351.67649212947	0.42328252875834	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2021-10-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.71	31.11	39.41	0	0	3.96	3.96	T	F	15.71	336.71	85	351.67649212947	0.421225641051	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	9	89	47.03	31.22	39.125	0	0	3.94	3.94	T	F	15.03	340.03	85	351.67649212947	0.39807731982871	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	45.51	29.44	37.475	0	0.02	3.92	3.94	T	F	13.51	327.51	85	351.67649212947	0.3477213042933	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.95	29.47	37.21	0	0	3.85	3.85	T	F	12.95	338.95	85	351.67649212947	0.32977412312013	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	44.92	29.48	37.2	0	0	3.82	3.82	T	F	12.92	336.92	85	351.67649212947	0.32882318010775	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	39.53	28.53	34.03	0	0.01	3.83	3.84	T	F	7.53	325.53	85	351.67649212947	0.17998276507366	94	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	9	89	31.1	29.46	30.28	0	0	3.87	3.87	T	F	-0.9	311.1	85	351.67649212947	0.048936117074136	94	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	9	89	30.36	29.51	29.935	0	0	3.88	3.88	T	F	-1.64	310.36	85	351.67649212947	0.04268674569565	94	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L