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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 8, 2021

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DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/09/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 43.84°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 32.03°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 37.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.314 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 337 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.11 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 3.74 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 3.85 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 86 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-09 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2022	8	88	43.84004	32.03006	37.93505	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	11.84004	336.84004	86	352.61036597531	0.31423581461914	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-09 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	8	88	34.29	34.29	34.29	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	2.29	327.29	85	351.67649212947	0.099320068368542	91	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-10-08 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.18	34.21	39.695	0.0026	0.1126	3.74	3.8526	T	F	13.18	338.18	85	351.67649212947	0.35514007128592	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.6	33.6	40.1	0.0012	0.1112	3.74	3.8512	T	F	14.6	339.6	85	351.67649212947	0.40037782046539	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.05	31.96	38.005	0.0002	0.1102	3.74	3.8502	T	F	12.05	337.05	85	351.67649212947	0.32051222683488	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.62	33.02	39.32	0.0003	0.1103	3.74	3.8503	T	F	13.62	329.62	86	352.61036597531	0.36897391654467	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.24	32.41	38.825	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	13.24	341.24	86	352.61036597531	0.35701577914672	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.16	33.97	39.565	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	13.16	341.16	86	352.61036597531	0.35451561149289	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.89	32.5	38.695	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	12.89	340.89	86	352.61036597531	0.34612424593385	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.04	32.54	38.79	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	13.04	341.04	86	352.61036597531	0.35077710807007	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.27	32.53	38.9	0	0.11	3.74	3.85	T	F	13.27	336.27	86	352.61036597531	0.3579549334534	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.28	32.24	38.76	0	0	3.74	3.74	T	F	13.28	336.28	86	352.61036597531	0.35826817626812	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.33	32.37	38.85	0.0006	0.0806	3.74	3.8206	T	F	13.33	343.33	86	352.61036597531	0.35983581708573	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.75	32.97	39.36	0.0027	0.0827	3.74	3.8227	T	F	13.75	342.75	86	352.61036597531	0.37309482352415	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.19	32.55	39.37	0.0035	0.0935	3.74	3.8335	T	F	14.19	343.19	86	352.61036597531	0.38714796420616	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	41.42	31.99	36.705	0.0269	0.1269	3.74	3.8669	T	F	9.42	335.42	86	352.61036597531	0.24607472974928	91	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-10-06 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.62	31.94	39.28	0.0029	0.1829	3.74	3.9229	T	F	14.62	342.62	86	352.61036597531	0.40102624760161	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.54	31.86	38.7	0.0231	0.2231	3.74	3.9631	T	F	13.54	343.54	86	352.61036597531	0.36644540218791	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.26	31.58	38.92	0.0542	0.2242	4	4.2242	T	F	14.26	354.26	86	352.61036597531	0.38939792794598	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.2	32.25	39.225	0.0146	0.1546	4	4.1546	T	F	14.2	354.2	86	352.61036597531	0.38746915758108	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.33	31.85	38.09	0.0548	0.1548	4	4.1548	T	F	12.33	351.33	86	352.61036597531	0.32896256969112	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.24	32.14	38.19	0.0665	0.1865	4.02	4.2065	T	F	12.24	353.24	86	352.61036597531	0.32623658130846	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.01	31.91	37.96	0.0819	0.2119	4.01	4.2219	T	F	12.01	351.01	86	352.61036597531	0.31931245785989	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	41.37	30.86	36.115	0.187	0.347	4.03	4.377	T	F	9.37	338.37	86	352.61036597531	0.24475483313619	91	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	43.73	30.08	36.905	0.146	0.316	4.03	4.346	T	F	11.73	352.73	86	352.61036597531	0.31096750870542	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	43.96	30.7	37.33	0.1504	0.3604	3.99	4.3504	T	F	11.96	348.96	86	352.61036597531	0.31781540224978	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.93	31.28	39.105	0.0024	0.1924	3.96	4.1524	T	F	14.93	353.93	86	352.61036597531	0.41111067739474	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	42.77	32.82	37.795	0	0.14	3.97	4.11	T	F	10.77	351.77	86	352.61036597531	0.28310558119762	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.54	31.52	39.03	0	0.14	3.94	4.08	T	F	14.54	359.54	86	352.61036597531	0.39843419230449	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.91	30.13	39.02	0	0.18	4.04	4.22	T	F	15.91	357.91	86	352.61036597531	0.44334789828812	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.63	29.77	38.7	0	0.17	4.05	4.22	T	F	15.63	369.63	86	352.61036597531	0.4340891717581	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.6	29.08	38.34	0	0.18	4.04	4.22	T	F	15.6	368.6	86	352.61036597531	0.43309921403741	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	8	88	49.7	30.67	40.185	0	0.08	4.02	4.1	T	F	17.7	367.7	86	352.61036597531	0.50305530926894	91	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2021-10-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	49.19	29.47	39.33	0.0045	0.0645	3.9	3.9645	T	F	17.19	359.19	86	352.61036597531	0.48599196737075	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	8	88	48.83	29.58	39.205	0.0045	0.0545	3.89	3.9445	T	F	16.83	362.83	86	352.61036597531	0.47396083829989	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.21	28.41	37.81	0	0.06	3.88	3.94	T	F	15.21	352.21	86	352.61036597531	0.42027015277413	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.43	30.56	38.995	0	0.02	3.83	3.85	T	F	15.43	364.43	86	352.61036597531	0.42749755780773	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.46	29.02	38.24	0	0.03	3.79	3.82	T	F	15.46	362.46	86	352.61036597531	0.42848505752574	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	45.97	27.65	36.81	0	0.02	3.82	3.84	T	F	13.97	355.97	86	352.61036597531	0.38010161335884	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	47.01	28.17	37.59	0	0.04	3.83	3.87	T	F	15.01	350.01	86	352.61036597531	0.41372296166842	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	8	88	46.94	28.1	37.52	0	0.04	3.84	3.88	T	F	14.94	349.94	86	352.61036597531	0.4114370000244	91	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-10-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	8	88	40.49	28.04	34.265	0	0.13	3.97	4.1	T	F	8.49	338.49	86	352.61036597531	0.22215934267545	91	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2021-10-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.74	28.39	36.565	0	0.14	4.08	4.22	T	F	12.74	357.74	86	352.61036597531	0.34149448460872	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	44.88	28.46	36.67	0	0.14	4.1	4.24	T	F	12.88	359.88	86	352.61036597531	0.34581486964541	91	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2021-10-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	33.58	25.35	29.465	0	0.02	3.93	3.95	T	F	1.58	347.58	86	352.61036597531	0.089296280074727	91	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-01 10:03:08	FORECAST	2022	8	88	30.33	25.35	27.84	0	0.02	3.76	3.78	T	F	-1.67	342.33	86	352.61036597531	0.052784248558672	91	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	8	88	26.41	25.35	25.88	0	0.07	3.76	3.83	T	F	-5.59	342.41	86	352.61036597531	0.026381654476923	90	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	8	88	26.33	26.07	26.2	0	0.07	3.76	3.83	T	F	-5.67	341.33	86	352.61036597531	0.025974184036959	90	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L