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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 7, 2021

[ Wednesday, October 6, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, October 8, 2021 ]

DAY 7 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/08/2021 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.243
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 344

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-08 04:00:04OBSERVATION202278743.3500824.0200633.68507000.113.753.86TF11.35008344.3500887353.54069783457 00.2431501024047995 14225235DRYL
2021-10-08 00:00:01FORECAST202278734.0634.0634.06000.113.753.86TF2.06335.0686352.6103659753100.0711850705425279514225235DRYL
2021-10-07 12:00:01FORECAST202278745.8233.3139.56500.00130.11133.753.8613TF13.82346.8286352.6103659753100.311544419396389524225240DRYM
2021-10-07 08:00:01FORECAST202278746.130.8238.4600.00050.11053.753.8605TF14.1347.186352.6103659753100.319795699939869524225240DRYM
2021-10-07 04:00:05FORECAST202278740.5530.4535.500.00060.11063.753.8606TF8.55341.5586352.6103659753100.176610861682139514225235DRYL
2021-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202278744.9128.5336.7200.00220.00223.753.7522TF12.91341.9187353.5406978345700.28539018039179524215220DRYL
2021-10-06 20:00:01FORECAST202278744.830.0237.4100.00310.08313.753.8331TF12.8348.887353.5406978345700.282300783130119524215220DRYL
2021-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202278744.1330.2437.18500.00420.08423.753.8342TF12.13348.1387353.5406978345700.263838666777029524215220DRYL
2021-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST202278744.0730.637.33500.00780.08783.753.8378TF12.07348.0787353.5406978345700.262215843498969524215220DRYL
2021-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST202278744.130.0737.08500.01080.10083.753.8508TF12.1345.187353.5406978345700.263026616321529524225240DRYM
2021-10-06 04:00:06FORECAST202278743.6830.8837.2800.02240.18243.753.9324TF11.68346.6887353.5406978345700.25179338933999524225240DRYM
2021-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202278743.6230.1936.90500.02160.20163.753.9516TF11.62348.6287353.5406978345700.250209544709349524225240DRYM
2021-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202278743.9929.8736.9300.00430.43433.754.1843TF11.99358.9987353.5406978345700.260060051443979524225240WETM
2021-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202278744.3329.4736.900.00520.39523.754.1452TF12.33359.3387353.5406978345700.269284763423159524225240WETM
2021-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202278743.9829.6336.80500.00360.36363.754.1136TF11.98357.9887353.5406978345700.259791220528919524225240WETM
2021-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202278744.0529.3136.6800.0020.4023.754.152TF12.05360.0587353.5406978345700.261676039552599524225240WETM
2021-10-05 04:00:08FORECAST202278744.0529.2636.65500.00240.40243.754.1524TF12.05358.0587353.5406978345700.261676039552599524225240WETM
2021-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202278743.1330.6836.90500.01370.45373.754.2037TF11.13348.1387353.5406978345700.237474713717869514225235WETM
2021-10-04 20:00:03FORECAST202278743.1529.5236.33500.01120.46123.754.2112TF11.15360.1587353.5406978345700.237987453343659514225235WETM
2021-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202278743.2630.736.9800.03550.45553.754.2055TF11.26356.2687353.5406978345700.240818322602729514225235WETM
2021-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202278737.5829.6433.6100.03340.41343.754.1634TF5.58357.5887353.5406978345700.120050883253269514225235WETM
2021-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST202278740.0628.9834.5200.01230.37233.754.1223TF8.06360.0687353.5406978345700.166273996636659514225235WETM
2021-10-04 04:00:07FORECAST202278745.927.6836.7900.00770.33773.754.0877TF13.9363.987353.5406978345700.313892534476839524225240WETM
2021-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202278744.7430.1637.4500.02370.48373.754.2337TF12.74360.7487353.5406978345700.280622459548789524225240WETM
2021-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202278745.3130.0837.69500.01810.46813.764.2281TF13.31373.3187353.5406978345700.296757845378439524225240WETM
2021-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202278745.6829.4437.5600.01270.47273.764.2327TF13.68371.6887353.5406978345700.307453631849099524225240WETM
2021-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST202278746.5626.4736.51500.00210.35213.764.1121TF14.56368.5687353.5406978345700.333545292111059524225240WETM
2021-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST202278741.6728.6335.1500.00230.22233.753.9723TF9.67360.6787353.5406978345700.20172118679259514225235DRYL
2021-10-03 04:00:07FORECAST202278744.2528.3536.300.00390.20393.753.9539TF12.25365.2587353.5406978345700.26709958460649524225240DRYM
2021-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST202278746.3129.5337.9200.01640.19643.753.9464TF14.31356.3187353.5406978345700.326043468755049524225240DRYM
2021-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202278746.9528.5537.7500.00060.11063.753.8606TF14.95367.9587353.5406978345700.345381155959829524225240DRYM
2021-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST202278747.0328.5437.78500.00060.08063.753.8306TF15.03366.0387353.5406978345700.347828289588839524215220DRYL
2021-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST202278743.7527.9435.84500.01460.10463.753.8546TF11.75360.7587353.5406978345700.25364786712549524225240DRYM
2021-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST202278744.1826.0635.12000.133.753.88TF12.18354.1887353.5406978345700.265194915227749524225240DRYM
2021-10-02 04:00:08FORECAST202278744.1926.0535.12000.143.753.89TF12.19354.1987353.5406978345700.26546658856349524225240DRYM
2021-10-02 00:00:04FORECAST202278744.3229.0736.69500.01440.36443.754.1144TF12.32349.3287353.5406978345700.269011127144469524225240WETM
2021-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST202278744.1829.0536.61500.01440.48443.754.2344TF12.18364.1887353.5406978345700.265194915227749524225240WETM
2021-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202278744.2328.8336.5300.01440.50443.754.2544TF12.23366.2387353.5406978345700.266554690296269524235260WETM
2021-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202278742.4325.7234.07500.00340.21343.753.9634TF10.43365.4387353.5406978345700.219915256958349514225235DRYL
2021-10-01 10:03:08FORECAST202278742.4325.7234.07500.00340.04343.753.7934TF10.43363.4387353.5406978345700.219915256958349514215217.5DRYL
2021-10-01 08:00:04FORECAST202278741.8125.3133.5600.00360.09363.753.8436TF9.81366.8187353.5406978345700.208003297447469414225235DRYL
2021-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202278741.7725.333.53500.00360.09363.753.8436TF9.77365.7787353.5406978345700.207053957649699414225235DRYL
2021-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST202278741.7731.6136.6900.29590.41593.263.6759TF9.77374.7787353.5406978345700.207053957649699414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202278742.7334.3738.5500.28570.37573.533.9057TF10.73389.7387353.5406978345700.23053667475829414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202278738.2434.336.2700.26820.35823.583.9382TF6.24383.2487353.5406978345700.133604848552449414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 14:50:15FORECAST202278741.1135.0738.0900.27010.34013.583.9201TF9.11391.1187353.5406978345700.191762292712159414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 14:45:46FORECAST202278741.1135.0738.0900.27010.34013.583.9201TF9.11391.1187353.5406978345700.191762292712159414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 14:44:56FORECAST202278741.1135.0738.0900.27010.34013.583.9201TF9.11391.1187353.5406978345700.191762292712159414225235DRYL
2021-09-30 14:43:20FORECAST202278741.1135.0738.0900.27010.34013.814.1501TF9.11393.1187353.5406978345700.191762292712159414225235WETM
2021-09-30 14:40:27FORECAST202278741.1135.0738.0900.27010.34013.814.1501TF9.11393.1187353.5406978345700.191762292712159414225235WETM
2021-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST202278739.7338.4839.10500.13010.34013.814.1501TF7.73394.7387353.5406978345700.162094761085799414225235WETM
2021-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202278740.2138.0139.1100.08290.30293.964.2629TF8.21389.2187353.5406978345700.172056963239619414225235WETM
2021-09-30 04:00:08FORECAST202278740.1938.7639.47500.06010.28014.054.3301TF8.19386.1987353.5406978345700.171634244825569414225235WETM