Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 4, 2021

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DAY 4 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/05/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.95°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.04°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.721 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 25 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 368 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.09 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 90 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.31 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 84 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-05 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2022	4	84	57.12008	42.94994	50.03501	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	25.12008	368.12008	90	356.31057557841	0	0.72121142508625	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-05 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	4	84	45.89	45.89	45.89	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	13.89	356.89	89	355.39078927845	0	0.33316957551592	90	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2021-10-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	57.2	45.6	51.4	0	0.0002	0.0002	7.09	7.0902	T	T	25.2	368.2	89	355.39078927845	0	0.72363916850833	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-04 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	4	84	57.44	42.93	50.185	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	25.44	368.44	89	355.39078927845	0	0.73086682992916	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-04 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.98	42.71	48.345	0	0.0001	0.0001	7.09	7.0901	T	T	21.98	364.98	89	355.39078927845	0	0.6186341844719	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	57.67	40.86	49.265	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	25.67	362.67	90	356.31057557841	0	0.73770330219804	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.99	41.44	49.215	0	0	0.01	7.09	7.1	T	T	24.99	371.99	90	356.31057557841	0	0.71723792907848	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-03 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.89	41.13	49.01	0	0.0011	0.0111	7.09	7.1011	T	T	24.89	371.89	90	356.31057557841	0	0.71416491253503	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.32	41.11	48.715	0	0.0011	0.0111	7.09	7.1011	T	T	24.32	371.32	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69635279529464	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.38	41.16	48.77	0	0.0004	0.0004	7.09	7.0904	T	T	24.38	372.38	90	356.31057557841	0	0.6982509060741	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.36	42.47	48.915	0	0.0004	0.0004	7.09	7.0904	T	T	23.36	370.36	90	356.31057557841	0	0.66529052491463	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.11	41.67	48.39	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.11	358.11	90	356.31057557841	0	0.65700077129106	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.55	40.9	47.225	0	0.0044	0.0044	7.09	7.0944	T	T	21.55	369.55	90	356.31057557841	0	0.60369820294172	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.13	41.26	47.195	0	0.0016	0.0016	7.09	7.0916	T	T	21.13	369.13	90	356.31057557841	0	0.58896098684814	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.38	41.2	47.29	0	0.0019	0.0019	7.09	7.0919	T	T	21.38	368.38	90	356.31057557841	0	0.59774969103558	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	52.7	40.88	46.79	0	0.0002	0.0002	7.09	7.0902	T	T	20.7	368.7	90	356.31057557841	0	0.57374186881964	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.03	41.13	47.08	0	0.0002	0.0002	7.09	7.0902	T	T	21.03	366.03	90	356.31057557841	0	0.58543269950803	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	54.04	41.87	47.955	0	0.0008	0.0008	7.09	7.0908	T	T	22.04	365.04	90	356.31057557841	0	0.62070486118091	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	54.33	41.86	48.095	0	0.0003	0.0003	7.09	7.0903	T	T	22.33	373.33	90	356.31057557841	0	0.63066342393412	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.56	42.92	49.24	0	0.0004	0.0004	7.09	7.0904	T	T	23.56	375.56	90	356.31057557841	0	0.67186508151937	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	54.74	42.22	48.48	0	0.0004	0.0004	7.09	7.0904	T	T	22.74	374.74	90	356.31057557841	0	0.64459310820348	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 10:03:08	FORECAST	2022	4	84	52.12	41.14	46.63	0	0.0004	0.0004	7.09	7.0904	T	T	20.12	372.12	90	356.31057557841	0	0.55304268212853	90	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.41	41.98	49.195	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	24.41	377.41	90	356.31057557841	0	0.70120976240632	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.81	40.85	48.33	0	0	0	7.09	7.09	T	T	23.81	375.81	90	356.31057557841	0	0.6821349210593	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-10-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.75	41.27	49.01	0	0	0	6.6	6.6	T	F	24.75	367.75	90	356.31057557841	0	0.71178278448448	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.25	39.69	47.97	0	0	0	6.87	6.87	T	T	24.25	381.25	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69617403473183	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.72	47.975	0	0	0.05	6.87	6.92	T	T	24.23	379.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:50:14	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.73	47.98	0	0	0.05	6.87	6.92	T	T	24.23	379.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:45:45	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.73	47.98	0	0	0.05	6.87	6.92	T	T	24.23	379.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:44:56	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.73	47.98	0	0	0.05	6.87	6.92	T	T	24.23	379.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:43:20	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.73	47.98	0	0	0.05	7.1	7.15	T	T	24.23	381.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 14:40:26	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.23	39.73	47.98	0	0	0.05	7.1	7.15	T	T	24.23	381.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.69554191775987	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	56.71	41.22	48.965	0	0	0.05	7.1	7.15	T	T	24.71	383.71	90	356.31057557841	0	0.71054809340803	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	52.88	40.41	46.645	0	0	0.03	7.27	7.3	T	T	20.88	377.88	90	356.31057557841	0	0.58276892938224	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	4	84	52.86	40.41	46.635	0	0	0.03	7.36	7.39	T	T	20.86	374.86	90	356.31057557841	0	0.58206357087829	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.81	43.87	48.84	0	0.0029	0.0029	6.94	6.9429	T	T	21.81	378.81	90	356.31057557841	0	0.61523775790206	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	50.07	43.37	46.72	0	0.0038	0.0038	6.9	6.9038	T	T	18.07	383.07	90	356.31057557841	0	0.48210629439181	89	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2021-09-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	4	84	53.08	43.2	48.14	0	0.0055	0.0055	6.87	6.8755	T	T	21.08	384.08	90	356.31057557841	0	0.58980750944045	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.53	41.78	48.655	0	0.0179	0.0179	6.9	6.9179	T	T	23.53	388.53	90	356.31057557841	0	0.67306102811164	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	55.5	41.78	48.64	0	0	0	7.02	7.02	T	T	23.5	386.5	90	356.31057557841	0	0.67208260892884	89	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2021-09-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	4	84	58.05	42.38	50.215	0	0	0	6.99	6.99	T	T	26.05	395.05	90	356.31057557841	0	0.75049719257701	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	58.66	44.78	51.72	0	0	0	6.05	6.05	T	F	26.66	390.66	90	356.31057557841	0	0.76766324403724	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	58.19	45.48	51.835	0	0	0	6.25	6.25	T	F	26.19	392.19	90	356.31057557841	0	0.75449549299013	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	58.23	45.42	51.825	0	0	0	6.38	6.38	T	F	26.23	389.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.75563151876432	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	60.19	44.7	52.445	0	0	0	6.5	6.5	T	F	28.19	396.19	90	356.31057557841	0	0.80769604054798	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	60.45	44.85	52.65	0	0	0	6.57	6.57	T	F	28.45	394.45	90	356.31057557841	0	0.8140544357069	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	4	84	60.44	44.89	52.665	0	0	0	6.81	6.81	T	T	28.44	393.44	90	356.31057557841	0	0.813812313376	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2021-09-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	60.61	45.07	52.84	0	0	0	6.31	6.31	T	F	28.61	378.61	90	356.31057557841	0	0.81790186199384	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	61.23	47.51	54.37	0	0	0	6.62	6.62	T	F	29.23	387.23	90	356.31057557841	0	0.83233689214424	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	4	84	61.26	47.54	54.4	0	0	0	6.47	6.47	T	F	29.26	389.26	90	356.31057557841	0	0.83301619268882	89	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2021-09-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	48.79	41.23	45.01	0	0.0185	0.0185	6.34	6.3585	T	F	16.79	378.79	90	356.31057557841	0	0.43624333767528	89	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-09-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	4	84	45.96	42.66	44.31	0	0.0005	0.0005	6.65	6.6505	T	F	13.96	379.96	90	356.31057557841	0	0.33864653594882	89	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2021-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	4	84	46.27	44.15	45.21	0	0	0	7.06	7.06	T	T	14.27	390.27	90	356.31057557841	0	0.3489509197999	89	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H