MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 29, 2021

[ Thursday, October 28, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 30, 2021 ]

DAY 29 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/30/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.475
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 81.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-30 04:00:11OBSERVATION20222910940.8000224.9099832.855187.564896315790.340000000000033.546.4710.01TT8.80002146.8000265432.91990085714 81.2005763173120.4752257772877591 25151220WETL
2021-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20222910929.7829.7829.781003.26.479.67TT-2.22135.7864337.910903911973.37910903911970.13447753183459115153252.5WETL
2021-10-29 12:00:01FORECAST20222910933.4428.8831.169.99496648822170.0133.2136.479.683TT1.44139.4464337.907579898953.37737493720610.223977080247029115153252.5WETL
2021-10-29 10:44:44FORECAST20222910933.4528.631.0259.9893610279790.02173.22176.479.6917TT1.45139.4564337.903878134573.37544383144050.224260402858099115153252.5WETL
2021-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20222910934.9828.3331.655115.946447090820.12483.32486.479.7948TT2.98140.9864399.2517413300946.2918209020450.269926065508139125151220WETL
2021-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20222910937.8228.3133.065115.813301766920.30593.50596.479.9759TT5.82143.8264399.1845492885946.2308806674540.365344965758059125151220WETL
2021-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20222910940.7228.2234.4720.698045568020.62450.99456.477.4645TT8.72143.7265345.840125560887.15821467810880.472210707963539125142232WETL
2021-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20222910942.0529.7135.8821.7124668433610.74792.84796.479.3179TT10.05151.0565346.488754607687.52312559601670.522398556673649135152245WETL
2021-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20222910941.7628.7535.25521.6914214433530.78222.88226.479.3522TT9.76150.7665346.47531498097.51554207696920.511458069231729135152245WETL
2021-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20222910942.228.8235.5120.8124604991890.84362.94366.479.4136TT10.2151.265345.913367027357.19930828739820.528051333728039135152245WETL
2021-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20222910942.2728.3935.3320.6964928346590.91153.08156.479.5515TT10.27147.2765345.83913144927.1576571059830.530687433465249135152245WETL
2021-10-28 04:00:12FORECAST20222910942.7528.5835.66519.9922585757580.9443.2746.479.744TT10.75151.7565345.387852812716.90508326235730.548721297082129135152245WETL
2021-10-28 00:00:04FORECAST20222910942.9830.636.798.35889471338970.92943.49946.479.9694TT10.98152.9865337.815104352222.8237608898730.557329325770839135153267.5WETH
2021-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20222910942.0728.8535.468.38629700890390.91383.65386.4710.1238TT10.07156.0765337.833206107112.83316960588440.523152545664459135153267.5WETH
2021-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20222910941.3627.8934.6258.46317700548150.8753.8556.4710.325TT9.36155.3665337.883985741872.85957197865110.496355292555719125153260WETH
2021-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20222910941.3728.9335.158.27277808592930.82883.70886.4710.1788TT9.37154.3765337.758208139292.79419870263740.496732888451489125153260WETH
2021-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20222910940.3829.0634.729.41044532795020.70013.83016.4710.3001TT8.38152.3865338.508848243063.18551900941870.459419688038799125153260WETH
2021-10-27 04:00:13FORECAST20222910939.7429.3334.5359.987116450390.62233.83236.4710.3023TT7.74152.7465338.888511922063.3845190322650.435466447235979125153260WETH
2021-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20222910938.4628.3133.3855.57671815931570.65594.20595.379.5759TT6.46151.4665335.970645552491.87361360004960.388347143968479125154280WETH
2021-10-26 20:00:05FORECAST20222910938.8727.1433.0054.61901794546850.69244.26246.0210.2824TT6.87156.8765335.33271147221.54890781199270.403297238411629125154280WETH
2021-10-26 16:00:04FORECAST20222910938.9426.0232.485.07340717833410.48174.48176.0210.5017TT6.94153.9465335.635578343861.70281595247410.405864539640139125154280WETH
2021-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20222910935.0826.9130.9956.81227706545930.47494.26496.0210.2849TT3.08147.0865336.791375055662.29431616013620.273064718120539125154280WETL
2021-10-26 09:32:51FORECAST20222910937.9326.9132.426.61327095684340.63873.94876.1510.0987TT5.93151.9365336.65935767582.22641955246690.369266760322019125154280WETH
2021-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20222910936.1227.131.6199.9095191456050.65643.90646.210.1064TT4.12151.1265391.7777347445639.1423250902840.306736279572569125151220WETL
2021-10-26 04:00:03FORECAST20222910937.0726.5831.825100.59669794060.76644.49646.3610.8564TT5.07146.0765392.1371937859139.4477068345540.338998145854899125151220WETL
2021-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20222910938.2628.0733.16513.7503499389310.71844.45845.9510.4084TT6.26154.2665341.352507563814.69371643153410.38111250730129125153260WETH
2021-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20222910938.4525.5732.0112.1712233209950.86514.62516.7711.3951TT6.45154.4565340.321433863174.14212817246980.387984467544789125153260WETH
2021-10-25 16:00:04FORECAST20222910939.2830.9135.09514.8165011036251.06425.04427.5112.5542TT7.28154.2865342.046304486445.06792944791420.418389999671399125152240WETL
2021-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20222910939.3323.7731.5519.1943815320891.43575.62577.8413.4657TT7.33153.3365344.875590851486.61967367190790.420239303617749125152240WETL
2021-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST2022291094024.9232.4616.6360743173691.47175.19176.9312.1217TT815765343.226059249475.70993422933170.445173996756359125152240WETL
2021-10-25 04:00:11FORECAST20222910939.7524.932.32515.3572018143111.55515.29516.9312.2251TT7.75159.7565342.397447603315.25826670354890.435839134893169125152240WETL
2021-10-25 00:00:05FORECAST20222910939.8427.1433.4914.3726377890691.67086.29085.7712.0608TT7.84152.8465341.757689086564.91195947687020.439195848804019125153260WETH
2021-10-24 20:00:06FORECAST20222910939.3627.2433.313.9701743482811.79066.64066.4613.1006TT7.36166.3665341.495711899264.77075463442310.42134973438619125153260WETH
2021-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20222910944.1227.0635.5914.8470481101451.80496.33496.4812.8149TT12.12167.1265342.066155250175.07867266385160.599520393476839135152245WETL
2021-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20222910936.626.0531.32514.8959252940530.70954.18956.5210.7095TT4.6159.665342.097914550925.09586497840160.3228703636969125152240WETL
2021-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20222910936.7625.7431.2516.3304510652330.73634.22636.4710.6963TT4.76160.7665343.028283428255.60180659651590.328325308131669125152240WETL
2021-10-24 04:00:14FORECAST20222910939.8626.7533.30514.5419910662420.9964.9266.4811.406TT7.86159.8665341.86784688334.97143917521230.43994238811359125153260WETH
2021-10-24 00:00:06FORECAST20222910944.9431.4538.19518.4111932500440.69953.39955.999.3895TT12.94170.9465344.371748860766.34029481813110.629194888371449135152245WETL
2021-10-23 20:00:04FORECAST20222910943.6832.7838.2318.8157120974820.55842.88846.339.2184TT11.68176.6865344.632109748426.4844985565740.583345097977379135152245WETL
2021-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20222910943.5832.5338.05519.9083293600140.55842.86846.289.1484TT11.58170.5865345.334016482436.87502333934870.579648072756659135152245WETL
2021-10-23 12:00:05FORECAST20222910939.5931.6735.6322.4753395696820.9922.7526.479.222TT7.59167.5965346.975441676227.79839087401340.429883190500469125152240WETL
2021-10-23 08:00:05FORECAST20222910939.0332.3435.68523.2326966012910.91292.69296.719.4029TT7.03162.0365347.457677967478.07237881400710.409171297615639125152240WETL
2021-10-23 04:00:14FORECAST20222910939.0730.2534.6622.6444683972540.91292.69296.689.3729TT7.07167.0765347.083212510027.85951483690060.410643059715999125152240WETL
2021-10-23 00:00:05FORECAST20222910941.9928.7835.38517.0385060174671.15272.59276.378.9627TT9.99163.9965343.486247969465.85249250294470.520136119377549135152245WETL
2021-10-22 20:00:05FORECAST20222910941.832.0736.93514.3187753662030.49752.51756.689.1975TT9.8166.865341.722643717854.8930497729410.512967800815119135153267.5WETH
2021-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20222910941.6334.6238.12515.3738198680780.49752.51756.579.0875TT9.63161.6365342.408232101795.26412248167980.506550419607849135152245WETL
2021-10-22 12:00:04FORECAST20222910937.7631.234.4821.2592229160480.71143.14146.419.5514TT5.76162.7665346.199153364077.35992497471370.36321169212529125152240WETL
2021-10-22 10:56:26FORECAST20222910934.6331.232.91522.0296469021270.66633.09636.349.4363TT2.63149.6365346.691219329477.63748514589620.259084744955019125152240WETL
2021-10-22 08:00:04FORECAST20222910932.9631.8932.42529.5796937805350.42012.85016.489.3301TT0.96152.9665351.4627813888910.3961614487390.210618341124239115151217.5WETL
2021-10-22 04:00:15FORECAST20222910933.6932.3733.0328.494157429320.19782.59786.599.1878TT1.69153.6965350.78235169839.99524755271840.231120794590059115152235WETL