Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 29, 2021
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Thursday, October 28, 2021 |
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Saturday, October 30, 2021 ]
DAY 29
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/30/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.86°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.475
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.01 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 81.20 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 109
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-10-30 04:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 40.80002 | 24.90998 | 32.855 | 187.56489631579 | 0.34000000000003 | 3.54 | 6.47 | 10.01 | T | T | 8.80002 | 146.80002 | 65 | 432.91990085714 | 81.200576317312 | 0.47522577728775 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-10-30 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 29.78 | 29.78 | 29.78 | 10 | 0 | 3.2 | 6.47 | 9.67 | T | T | -2.22 | 135.78 | 64 | 337.91090391197 | 3.3791090391197 | 0.1344775318345 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 33.44 | 28.88 | 31.16 | 9.9949664882217 | 0.013 | 3.213 | 6.47 | 9.683 | T | T | 1.44 | 139.44 | 64 | 337.90757989895 | 3.3773749372061 | 0.22397708024702 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 33.45 | 28.6 | 31.025 | 9.989361027979 | 0.0217 | 3.2217 | 6.47 | 9.6917 | T | T | 1.45 | 139.45 | 64 | 337.90387813457 | 3.3754438314405 | 0.22426040285809 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 34.98 | 28.33 | 31.655 | 115.94644709082 | 0.1248 | 3.3248 | 6.47 | 9.7948 | T | T | 2.98 | 140.98 | 64 | 399.25174133009 | 46.291820902045 | 0.26992606550813 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 37.82 | 28.31 | 33.065 | 115.81330176692 | 0.3059 | 3.5059 | 6.47 | 9.9759 | T | T | 5.82 | 143.82 | 64 | 399.18454928859 | 46.230880667454 | 0.36534496575805 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-10-29 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 40.72 | 28.22 | 34.47 | 20.69804556802 | 0.6245 | 0.9945 | 6.47 | 7.4645 | T | T | 8.72 | 143.72 | 65 | 345.84012556088 | 7.1582146781088 | 0.47221070796353 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.05 | 29.71 | 35.88 | 21.712466843361 | 0.7479 | 2.8479 | 6.47 | 9.3179 | T | T | 10.05 | 151.05 | 65 | 346.48875460768 | 7.5231255960167 | 0.52239855667364 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.76 | 28.75 | 35.255 | 21.691421443353 | 0.7822 | 2.8822 | 6.47 | 9.3522 | T | T | 9.76 | 150.76 | 65 | 346.4753149809 | 7.5155420769692 | 0.51145806923172 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.2 | 28.82 | 35.51 | 20.812460499189 | 0.8436 | 2.9436 | 6.47 | 9.4136 | T | T | 10.2 | 151.2 | 65 | 345.91336702735 | 7.1993082873982 | 0.52805133372803 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.27 | 28.39 | 35.33 | 20.696492834659 | 0.9115 | 3.0815 | 6.47 | 9.5515 | T | T | 10.27 | 147.27 | 65 | 345.8391314492 | 7.157657105983 | 0.53068743346524 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.75 | 28.58 | 35.665 | 19.992258575758 | 0.944 | 3.274 | 6.47 | 9.744 | T | T | 10.75 | 151.75 | 65 | 345.38785281271 | 6.9050832623573 | 0.54872129708212 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-28 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.98 | 30.6 | 36.79 | 8.3588947133897 | 0.9294 | 3.4994 | 6.47 | 9.9694 | T | T | 10.98 | 152.98 | 65 | 337.81510435222 | 2.823760889873 | 0.55732932577083 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 42.07 | 28.85 | 35.46 | 8.3862970089039 | 0.9138 | 3.6538 | 6.47 | 10.1238 | T | T | 10.07 | 156.07 | 65 | 337.83320610711 | 2.8331696058844 | 0.52315254566445 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.36 | 27.89 | 34.625 | 8.4631770054815 | 0.875 | 3.855 | 6.47 | 10.325 | T | T | 9.36 | 155.36 | 65 | 337.88398574187 | 2.8595719786511 | 0.49635529255571 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.37 | 28.93 | 35.15 | 8.2727780859293 | 0.8288 | 3.7088 | 6.47 | 10.1788 | T | T | 9.37 | 154.37 | 65 | 337.75820813929 | 2.7941987026374 | 0.49673288845148 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 40.38 | 29.06 | 34.72 | 9.4104453279502 | 0.7001 | 3.8301 | 6.47 | 10.3001 | T | T | 8.38 | 152.38 | 65 | 338.50884824306 | 3.1855190094187 | 0.45941968803879 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.74 | 29.33 | 34.535 | 9.98711645039 | 0.6223 | 3.8323 | 6.47 | 10.3023 | T | T | 7.74 | 152.74 | 65 | 338.88851192206 | 3.384519032265 | 0.43546644723597 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-27 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 38.46 | 28.31 | 33.385 | 5.5767181593157 | 0.6559 | 4.2059 | 5.37 | 9.5759 | T | T | 6.46 | 151.46 | 65 | 335.97064555249 | 1.8736136000496 | 0.38834714396847 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 38.87 | 27.14 | 33.005 | 4.6190179454685 | 0.6924 | 4.2624 | 6.02 | 10.2824 | T | T | 6.87 | 156.87 | 65 | 335.3327114722 | 1.5489078119927 | 0.40329723841162 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 38.94 | 26.02 | 32.48 | 5.0734071783341 | 0.4817 | 4.4817 | 6.02 | 10.5017 | T | T | 6.94 | 153.94 | 65 | 335.63557834386 | 1.7028159524741 | 0.40586453964013 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 35.08 | 26.91 | 30.995 | 6.8122770654593 | 0.4749 | 4.2649 | 6.02 | 10.2849 | T | T | 3.08 | 147.08 | 65 | 336.79137505566 | 2.2943161601362 | 0.27306471812053 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 09:32:51 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 37.93 | 26.91 | 32.42 | 6.6132709568434 | 0.6387 | 3.9487 | 6.15 | 10.0987 | T | T | 5.93 | 151.93 | 65 | 336.6593576758 | 2.2264195524669 | 0.36926676032201 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
2021-10-26 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 36.12 | 27.1 | 31.61 | 99.909519145605 | 0.6564 | 3.9064 | 6.2 | 10.1064 | T | T | 4.12 | 151.12 | 65 | 391.77773474456 | 39.142325090284 | 0.30673627957256 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 37.07 | 26.58 | 31.825 | 100.5966979406 | 0.7664 | 4.4964 | 6.36 | 10.8564 | T | T | 5.07 | 146.07 | 65 | 392.13719378591 | 39.447706834554 | 0.33899814585489 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2021-10-26 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 38.26 | 28.07 | 33.165 | 13.750349938931 | 0.7184 | 4.4584 | 5.95 | 10.4084 | T | T | 6.26 | 154.26 | 65 | 341.35250756381 | 4.6937164315341 | 0.3811125073012 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-25 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 38.45 | 25.57 | 32.01 | 12.171223320995 | 0.8651 | 4.6251 | 6.77 | 11.3951 | T | T | 6.45 | 154.45 | 65 | 340.32143386317 | 4.1421281724698 | 0.38798446754478 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-25 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.28 | 30.91 | 35.095 | 14.816501103625 | 1.0642 | 5.0442 | 7.51 | 12.5542 | T | T | 7.28 | 154.28 | 65 | 342.04630448644 | 5.0679294479142 | 0.41838999967139 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.33 | 23.77 | 31.55 | 19.194381532089 | 1.4357 | 5.6257 | 7.84 | 13.4657 | T | T | 7.33 | 153.33 | 65 | 344.87559085148 | 6.6196736719079 | 0.42023930361774 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 40 | 24.92 | 32.46 | 16.636074317369 | 1.4717 | 5.1917 | 6.93 | 12.1217 | T | T | 8 | 157 | 65 | 343.22605924947 | 5.7099342293317 | 0.44517399675635 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.75 | 24.9 | 32.325 | 15.357201814311 | 1.5551 | 5.2951 | 6.93 | 12.2251 | T | T | 7.75 | 159.75 | 65 | 342.39744760331 | 5.2582667035489 | 0.43583913489316 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-25 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.84 | 27.14 | 33.49 | 14.372637789069 | 1.6708 | 6.2908 | 5.77 | 12.0608 | T | T | 7.84 | 152.84 | 65 | 341.75768908656 | 4.9119594768702 | 0.43919584880401 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-24 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.36 | 27.24 | 33.3 | 13.970174348281 | 1.7906 | 6.6406 | 6.46 | 13.1006 | T | T | 7.36 | 166.36 | 65 | 341.49571189926 | 4.7707546344231 | 0.4213497343861 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-24 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 44.12 | 27.06 | 35.59 | 14.847048110145 | 1.8049 | 6.3349 | 6.48 | 12.8149 | T | T | 12.12 | 167.12 | 65 | 342.06615525017 | 5.0786726638516 | 0.59952039347683 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-24 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 36.6 | 26.05 | 31.325 | 14.895925294053 | 0.7095 | 4.1895 | 6.52 | 10.7095 | T | T | 4.6 | 159.6 | 65 | 342.09791455092 | 5.0958649784016 | 0.322870363696 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-24 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 36.76 | 25.74 | 31.25 | 16.330451065233 | 0.7363 | 4.2263 | 6.47 | 10.6963 | T | T | 4.76 | 160.76 | 65 | 343.02828342825 | 5.6018065965159 | 0.32832530813166 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-24 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.86 | 26.75 | 33.305 | 14.541991066242 | 0.996 | 4.926 | 6.48 | 11.406 | T | T | 7.86 | 159.86 | 65 | 341.8678468833 | 4.9714391752123 | 0.4399423881135 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
2021-10-24 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 44.94 | 31.45 | 38.195 | 18.411193250044 | 0.6995 | 3.3995 | 5.99 | 9.3895 | T | T | 12.94 | 170.94 | 65 | 344.37174886076 | 6.3402948181311 | 0.62919488837144 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 43.68 | 32.78 | 38.23 | 18.815712097482 | 0.5584 | 2.8884 | 6.33 | 9.2184 | T | T | 11.68 | 176.68 | 65 | 344.63210974842 | 6.484498556574 | 0.58334509797737 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 43.58 | 32.53 | 38.055 | 19.908329360014 | 0.5584 | 2.8684 | 6.28 | 9.1484 | T | T | 11.58 | 170.58 | 65 | 345.33401648243 | 6.8750233393487 | 0.57964807275665 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.59 | 31.67 | 35.63 | 22.475339569682 | 0.992 | 2.752 | 6.47 | 9.222 | T | T | 7.59 | 167.59 | 65 | 346.97544167622 | 7.7983908740134 | 0.42988319050046 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.03 | 32.34 | 35.685 | 23.232696601291 | 0.9129 | 2.6929 | 6.71 | 9.4029 | T | T | 7.03 | 162.03 | 65 | 347.45767796747 | 8.0723788140071 | 0.40917129761563 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 39.07 | 30.25 | 34.66 | 22.644468397254 | 0.9129 | 2.6929 | 6.68 | 9.3729 | T | T | 7.07 | 167.07 | 65 | 347.08321251002 | 7.8595148369006 | 0.41064305971599 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-23 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.99 | 28.78 | 35.385 | 17.038506017467 | 1.1527 | 2.5927 | 6.37 | 8.9627 | T | T | 9.99 | 163.99 | 65 | 343.48624796946 | 5.8524925029447 | 0.52013611937754 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-22 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.8 | 32.07 | 36.935 | 14.318775366203 | 0.4975 | 2.5175 | 6.68 | 9.1975 | T | T | 9.8 | 166.8 | 65 | 341.72264371785 | 4.893049772941 | 0.51296780081511 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
2021-10-22 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 41.63 | 34.62 | 38.125 | 15.373819868078 | 0.4975 | 2.5175 | 6.57 | 9.0875 | T | T | 9.63 | 161.63 | 65 | 342.40823210179 | 5.2641224816798 | 0.50655041960784 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2021-10-22 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 37.76 | 31.2 | 34.48 | 21.259222916048 | 0.7114 | 3.1414 | 6.41 | 9.5514 | T | T | 5.76 | 162.76 | 65 | 346.19915336407 | 7.3599249747137 | 0.3632116921252 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-22 10:56:26 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 34.63 | 31.2 | 32.915 | 22.029646902127 | 0.6663 | 3.0963 | 6.34 | 9.4363 | T | T | 2.63 | 149.63 | 65 | 346.69121932947 | 7.6374851458962 | 0.25908474495501 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2021-10-22 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 32.96 | 31.89 | 32.425 | 29.579693780535 | 0.4201 | 2.8501 | 6.48 | 9.3301 | T | T | 0.96 | 152.96 | 65 | 351.46278138889 | 10.396161448739 | 0.21061834112423 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2021-10-22 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 29 | 109 | 33.69 | 32.37 | 33.03 | 28.49415742932 | 0.1978 | 2.5978 | 6.59 | 9.1878 | T | T | 1.69 | 153.69 | 65 | 350.7823516983 | 9.9952475527184 | 0.23112079459005 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |