Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 28, 2021
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Wednesday, October 27, 2021 |
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Today |
Friday, October 29, 2021 ]
DAY 28
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/29/2021 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.13°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.567
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 137
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 2.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.82 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 400.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.49 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-10-29 04:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.33008 | 32.91998 | 39.12503 | 116.001244375 | 2.9400000000001 | 4.3500000000001 | 5.47 | 9.8200000000001 | T | T | 13.33008 | 137.33008 | 66 | 400.78318327395 | 46.491347984352 | 0.56721962589878 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-29 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 41.67 | 41.67 | 41.67 | 20.947137333333 | 0.1099 | 1.5199 | 5.47 | 6.9899 | T | T | 9.67 | 133.67 | 65 | 345.99955166095 | 7.2477001259136 | 0.43239098114113 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-28 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.88 | 41.22 | 44.55 | 21.114892 | 1.8427 | 3.2527 | 5.47 | 8.7227 | T | T | 15.88 | 139.88 | 65 | 346.10686278525 | 7.3080090281694 | 0.65758789750479 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-28 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.61 | 41.02 | 42.315 | 21.016328 | 1.9141 | 3.3241 | 5.47 | 8.7941 | T | T | 11.61 | 135.61 | 65 | 346.04381783735 | 7.2725703780421 | 0.50387255370173 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-28 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.5 | 39.55 | 43.525 | 20.426311909091 | 2.0661 | 3.4761 | 5.47 | 8.9461 | T | T | 15.5 | 139.5 | 65 | 345.66609290286 | 7.0606834300305 | 0.64454379983951 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-28 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.23 | 37.18 | 40.705 | 8.6457426666667 | 2.5426 | 3.7226 | 5.47 | 9.1926 | T | T | 12.23 | 141.23 | 66 | 338.99026028817 | 2.9308225569579 | 0.52680154350965 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.64 | 36.95 | 42.295 | 8.6038133333333 | 2.3803 | 3.8903 | 5.47 | 9.3603 | T | T | 15.64 | 144.64 | 66 | 338.96268480133 | 2.9163716669962 | 0.64937021246395 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.59 | 37.04 | 42.315 | 8.6315293333333 | 2.6181 | 4.1281 | 5.47 | 9.5981 | T | T | 15.59 | 144.59 | 66 | 338.98091299454 | 2.9259236939525 | 0.64764921023079 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.18 | 37.55 | 42.365 | 8.4388293333333 | 2.5166 | 4.0266 | 5.47 | 9.4966 | T | T | 15.18 | 144.18 | 66 | 338.85415195648 | 2.8595323572521 | 0.63342572197561 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.34 | 36.19 | 41.765 | 8.8646387474845 | 2.8005 | 4.2805 | 5.47 | 9.7505 | T | T | 15.34 | 143.34 | 66 | 339.13417306836 | 3.0063019311779 | 0.63899943453167 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 47.26 | 36.4 | 41.83 | 9.5272665961611 | 2.7992 | 4.3592 | 5.47 | 9.8292 | T | T | 15.26 | 144.26 | 66 | 339.56932899142 | 3.2351675251808 | 0.63621617972625 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 46.88 | 36.52 | 41.7 | 4.9498695793532 | 2.7742 | 3.6042 | 5.47 | 9.0742 | T | T | 14.88 | 143.88 | 66 | 336.54829648309 | 1.6658701747448 | 0.62289967706086 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 46.52 | 37.58 | 42.05 | 3.9804220436039 | 2.6866 | 4.2666 | 5.47 | 9.7366 | T | T | 14.52 | 148.52 | 66 | 335.90395190973 | 1.3370394947152 | 0.61014750835931 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.78 | 35.53 | 39.655 | 4.1912070149124 | 3.09 | 4.7 | 5.47 | 10.17 | T | T | 11.78 | 145.78 | 66 | 336.04418543318 | 1.4084307473081 | 0.51016401578243 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 41.43 | 35.43 | 38.43 | 5.7476486526381 | 2.9331 | 4.4931 | 5.47 | 9.9631 | T | T | 9.43 | 143.43 | 66 | 337.07735260965 | 1.9374021915617 | 0.42365261847272 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 09:32:51 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.61 | 36.18 | 39.895 | 5.58156802201 | 2.6134 | 4.1434 | 5.47 | 9.6134 | T | T | 11.61 | 144.61 | 66 | 336.96730272131 | 1.8808059213322 | 0.50387255370173 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 90 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.66 | 36.45 | 40.055 | 98.731746816779 | 2.5789 | 4.1289 | 5.47 | 9.5989 | T | T | 11.66 | 145.66 | 66 | 391.94430865449 | 38.697346248352 | 0.50572315381293 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-26 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 40.99 | 37.59 | 39.29 | 99.930532413938 | 2.9701 | 4.7701 | 5.47 | 10.2401 | T | T | 8.99 | 139.99 | 66 | 392.57047252244 | 39.229776329159 | 0.40773235852178 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-26 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.25 | 37.16 | 41.205 | 13.143680142429 | 2.9605 | 4.9805 | 4.86 | 9.8405 | T | T | 13.25 | 147.25 | 66 | 341.93140928022 | 4.4942370742291 | 0.5642958508075 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.41 | 37.82 | 41.115 | 11.192010361333 | 3.0338 | 5.0738 | 5.61 | 10.6838 | T | T | 12.41 | 147.41 | 66 | 340.65936090477 | 3.8126630969313 | 0.53344511140814 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 42.94 | 36.55 | 39.745 | 13.754124091496 | 3.2269 | 6.0269 | 5.61 | 11.6369 | T | T | 10.94 | 145.94 | 66 | 342.32798812002 | 4.708421628595 | 0.4790823509538 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 42.92 | 37.25 | 40.085 | 17.165620608082 | 3.3763 | 6.5663 | 5.61 | 12.1763 | T | T | 10.92 | 144.92 | 66 | 344.53300376269 | 5.9141228295533 | 0.47834311094678 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-25 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.44 | 35.76 | 40.1 | 15.225033225073 | 2.8944 | 4.9944 | 5.81 | 10.8044 | T | T | 12.44 | 148.44 | 66 | 343.28105158149 | 5.2264654158661 | 0.5345515176565 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-25 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.97 | 34.64 | 39.805 | 15.278297717674 | 2.973 | 5.013 | 5.81 | 10.823 | T | T | 12.97 | 150.97 | 66 | 343.31549711004 | 5.2452763759383 | 0.55404623646844 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-25 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.69 | 34.06 | 39.375 | 12.830684571038 | 3.9516 | 5.7016 | 4.84 | 10.5416 | T | T | 12.69 | 143.69 | 66 | 341.72783109803 | 4.3846020099639 | 0.54376037851988 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.9 | 35.3 | 40.1 | 11.884722302178 | 4.145 | 5.995 | 5.46 | 11.455 | T | T | 12.9 | 157.9 | 66 | 341.11157485794 | 4.0540163412454 | 0.55147790399942 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.73 | 36.2 | 40.465 | 12.890413493347 | 3.7992 | 5.6592 | 5.5 | 11.1592 | T | T | 12.73 | 153.73 | 66 | 341.76669240454 | 4.4055139833481 | 0.54523174747408 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.24 | 36.38 | 40.81 | 13.139297663908 | 2.8364 | 4.6064 | 5.54 | 10.1464 | T | T | 13.24 | 154.24 | 66 | 341.92855995116 | 4.4927011289896 | 0.56393049371087 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.68 | 36.87 | 41.275 | 14.248099494248 | 2.7667 | 4.5767 | 5.53 | 10.1067 | T | T | 13.68 | 154.68 | 66 | 342.64845260524 | 4.8820892442694 | 0.57995027269473 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.77 | 37.75 | 41.76 | 14.093220172153 | 3.2617 | 4.9717 | 5.59 | 10.5617 | T | T | 13.77 | 150.77 | 66 | 342.54801855746 | 4.8276046450649 | 0.58321169322097 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45 | 37.37 | 41.185 | 17.175463561331 | 2.0054 | 3.9154 | 4.92 | 8.8354 | T | T | 13 | 157 | 66 | 344.53933813744 | 5.9176228476246 | 0.55514626303205 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.38 | 36.19 | 40.285 | 17.34201397906 | 1.6639 | 3.6239 | 5.19 | 8.8139 | T | T | 12.38 | 164.38 | 66 | 344.64649667291 | 5.9768643631355 | 0.53233844665346 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 40.42 | 36.65 | 38.535 | 18.33854051726 | 1.6104 | 3.6004 | 5.14 | 8.7404 | T | T | 8.42 | 158.42 | 66 | 345.28671562309 | 6.3320544245258 | 0.38733638018074 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.18 | 36.2 | 40.69 | 20.162080111817 | 1.1203 | 3.1403 | 5.24 | 8.3803 | T | T | 13.18 | 159.18 | 66 | 346.45406191283 | 6.985234551351 | 0.56173721618659 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.98 | 37.21 | 41.095 | 20.982769733651 | 1.1598 | 3.1598 | 5.48 | 8.6398 | T | T | 12.98 | 153.98 | 66 | 346.97766802371 | 7.2805525108608 | 0.55441295863951 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 44.33 | 37.12 | 40.725 | 20.109409042423 | 1.1598 | 3.1398 | 5.47 | 8.6098 | T | T | 12.33 | 159.33 | 66 | 346.42042008931 | 6.9663099282238 | 0.53049345406693 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.42 | 33.65 | 38.535 | 16.664044035567 | 0.5824 | 3.1024 | 4.86 | 7.9624 | T | T | 11.42 | 153.42 | 66 | 344.21000736506 | 5.7359307202144 | 0.49683985223824 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.07 | 34.24 | 38.655 | 14.848331366203 | 1.119 | 3.829 | 5.02 | 8.849 | T | T | 11.07 | 156.07 | 66 | 343.03730979607 | 5.0935316468231 | 0.4838890515596 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.42 | 34.14 | 38.78 | 15.842805201411 | 1.119 | 3.799 | 4.94 | 8.739 | T | T | 11.42 | 151.42 | 66 | 343.68027126911 | 5.4448595892846 | 0.49683985223824 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.53 | 32.9 | 38.215 | 17.950907745598 | 1.4039 | 4.2139 | 4.78 | 8.9939 | T | T | 11.53 | 155.53 | 66 | 345.03787332326 | 6.1937430327632 | 0.50091143674579 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 10:56:25 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.53 | 32.9 | 38.215 | 18.617863558813 | 1.4039 | 4.1139 | 4.81 | 8.9239 | T | T | 11.53 | 145.53 | 66 | 345.46587626584 | 6.431836548543 | 0.50091143674579 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.54 | 32.8 | 38.17 | 27.195317729552 | 1.4039 | 4.1139 | 4.95 | 9.0639 | T | T | 11.54 | 150.54 | 66 | 350.90611358137 | 9.5430032520875 | 0.50128158245706 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 43.25 | 33.59 | 38.42 | 27.378642428756 | 1.4126 | 4.0626 | 5.08 | 9.1426 | T | T | 11.25 | 151.25 | 66 | 351.02109821133 | 9.610481132877 | 0.49054820252002 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 39.58 | 28.07 | 33.825 | 39.34321916607 | 3.8802 | 6.8002 | 4.81 | 11.6102 | T | T | 7.58 | 147.58 | 66 | 358.41089736603 | 14.10103848658 | 0.35785210713586 | 92 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.02 | 32.05 | 38.535 | 30.50945789609 | 4.3668 | 6.9068 | 5.73 | 12.6368 | T | T | 13.02 | 164.02 | 66 | 352.97656072414 | 10.76912351772 | 0.55587937876149 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 16:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 45.22 | 34.7 | 39.96 | 28.847136715561 | 3.8246 | 6.3646 | 5.59 | 11.9546 | T | T | 13.22 | 163.22 | 66 | 351.94023521873 | 10.152468081061 | 0.56319961615649 | 92 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 32.69 | 30.14 | 31.415 | 25.00041267121 | 0.1164 | 2.1964 | 5.83 | 8.0264 | T | T | 0.69 | 152.69 | 66 | 349.52526254309 | 8.7382758025902 | 0.15777656418724 | 92 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 31.38 | 29.48 | 30.43 | 7.0026164428194 | 0.1016 | 2.5216 | 5.74 | 8.2616 | T | T | -0.62 | 149.38 | 66 | 337.90743193324 | 2.3662361390066 | 0.13023173804957 | 92 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 28 | 108 | 31.24 | 30.47 | 30.855 | 6.975257590812 | 0.0689 | 2.4889 | 5.8 | 8.2889 | T | T | -0.76 | 145.24 | 66 | 337.88936403605 | 2.3568653513471 | 0.12749746057012 | 92 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |