Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 27, 2021

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DAY 27 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/28/2021 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.53°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.152 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 131 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.26 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 13 in SWE DAY: 67 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.34 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.53 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 107 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 35.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-28 04:00:10	OBSERVATION	2022	27	107	32.52992	28.59998	30.56495	21.630235909091	0.25999999999999	2.05	5.67	7.72	T	T	0.52992	130.52992	67	348.34011840085	7.5346789376111	0.15192430522734	89	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2021-10-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.5	37.5	37.5	9.9699333333333	0.0259	1.8159	5.67	7.4859	T	T	5.5	135.5	66	339.85962592367	3.3883778131506	0.28875146676355	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.95	32.03	34.99	9.8035826666667	0.3581	2.1481	5.67	7.8181	T	T	5.95	135.95	66	339.750572908	3.330772827551	0.30349071421375	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.37	30.61	33.99	10.180793414151	0.3274	2.1174	5.67	7.7874	T	T	5.37	135.37	66	339.99779137262	3.4614472752323	0.28455700819432	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.78	30.85	34.315	10.832159929494	0.4148	2.2048	5.67	7.8748	T	T	5.78	135.78	66	340.42413030453	3.6875286233177	0.29788310788563	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.73	29.55	33.64	6.1946295793532	0.7806	1.4706	5.67	7.1406	T	T	5.73	135.73	67	338.36142757703	2.0960237077808	0.29624283914667	89	2	5	1	4	4	2	64	WET	H
2021-10-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.93	29.33	33.63	5.1921633769372	0.8776	2.2176	5.67	7.8876	T	T	5.93	140.93	67	337.69973174477	1.7533921795667	0.30282855526334	89	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.88	31.17	34.525	5.2165350149124	0.9076	2.2476	5.67	7.9176	T	T	5.88	140.88	67	337.71583867334	1.76170649753	0.30117599262588	89	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.97	30.8	34.385	6.7006526526381	0.863	2.203	5.67	7.873	T	T	5.97	140.97	67	338.69479785633	2.2694761956907	0.30415351849377	89	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-26 09:32:51	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.13	30.77	34.45	6.6135653553433	0.6951	2.1651	5.67	7.8351	T	T	6.13	140.13	67	338.63745487391	2.2396009395757	0.30947897337148	89	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2021-10-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.28	30.66	34.47	99.771889483446	0.6738	2.1938	5.67	7.8638	T	T	6.28	141.28	67	393.26680316527	39.236972022913	0.31450818453846	89	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-10-26 04:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.17	30.83	34.5	100.9526350806	0.7631	2.4431	5.67	8.1131	T	T	6.17	138.17	67	393.87959794677	39.763183317215	0.31081666647733	89	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-10-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.25	31.84	35.045	14.246306809096	0.7835	2.0535	5.67	7.7235	T	T	6.25	141.25	67	343.61541003933	4.8952505557536	0.31349954700635	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.25	29.73	33.99	12.250302361333	0.7307	2.8207	5.67	8.4907	T	T	6.25	142.25	67	342.32295146302	4.193559660646	0.31349954700635	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.53	31.9	35.215	14.784262758163	0.7495	3.5795	5.67	9.2495	T	T	6.53	141.53	67	343.96262928984	5.0852338904095	0.32296676864838	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.24	31.83	35.035	18.139889941415	0.8055	3.9655	5.67	9.6355	T	T	6.24	141.24	67	346.11781423197	6.2785390569313	0.31316364340496	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.99	29.16	33.575	16.093522558406	0.8264	3.0764	5.67	8.7464	T	T	5.99	142.99	67	344.80570046567	5.5491383187112	0.30481696635423	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-25 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.59	30.25	33.92	16.198611051007	0.7723	3.0223	5.67	8.6923	T	T	5.59	144.59	67	344.87324858813	5.5864676157764	0.29167225251472	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.39	29.17	33.28	13.728639237705	0.6684	2.6184	4.81	7.4284	T	T	5.39	138.39	67	343.28083751615	4.7127787754764	0.28520041386774	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-24 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.41	29.81	33.61	12.854071635512	0.7006	2.8106	5.34	8.1506	T	T	5.41	152.41	67	342.71459738276	4.4052779852936	0.28584451122578	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.63	30.98	34.305	13.89321882668	0.7314	2.8614	5.34	8.2014	T	T	5.63	147.63	67	343.38725426923	4.7707542658554	0.29297478045161	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.12	29.14	33.13	14.172661663908	0.6373	2.8073	5.34	8.1473	T	T	5.12	148.12	67	343.56783945334	4.869270747172	0.27657342664316	89	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2021-10-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.04	30.56	34.3	15.293162160914	0.7212	2.8012	5.38	8.1812	T	T	6.04	148.04	67	344.29065782237	5.2652928605654	0.3064783901337	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-24 04:00:14	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.55	30.7	34.625	15.14861483882	0.67	2.63	5.51	8.14	T	T	6.55	143.55	67	344.19752800687	5.21411578025	0.32364750121933	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.08	29.99	34.035	18.266938227998	0.6947	2.7247	4.95	7.6747	T	T	6.08	151.08	67	346.19905190151	6.3239966956762	0.30781039881638	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.13	30.67	34.4	18.28386597906	0.6654	2.7854	5.2	7.9854	T	T	6.13	159.13	67	346.20987392557	6.3300549354823	0.30947897337148	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.9	29.96	33.93	19.186967183927	0.7024	2.8624	5.11	7.9724	T	T	5.9	156.9	67	346.78655845751	6.6537823169513	0.30183653064139	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	38.36	28.55	33.455	21.167946778484	0.6363	3.0463	5.05	8.0963	T	T	6.36	153.36	67	348.0469094849	7.3674384563922	0.31720463993353	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.53	29.87	33.7	21.997875066984	0.6159	3.1259	5.19	8.3159	T	T	5.53	147.53	67	348.57304950916	7.6678663948204	0.28972353253523	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.53	29.87	33.7	21.109262375756	0.6159	3.0559	5.23	8.2859	T	T	5.53	153.53	67	348.00966401145	7.3462273069164	0.28972353253523	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.67	28.35	33.01	17.531986702234	0.8625	3.5825	4.64	8.2225	T	T	5.67	148.67	67	345.72874354827	6.0613117344684	0.29427999815886	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.43	29.11	33.27	15.57769403287	0.8955	3.5855	4.98	8.5655	T	T	5.43	152.43	67	344.47387785665	5.3661086715673	0.28648929870145	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.26	28.99	33.125	16.577853201411	0.8955	3.4655	4.99	8.4555	T	T	5.26	147.26	67	345.11686559386	5.7212967351461	0.28103071024418	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	36.54	30.32	33.43	18.096227989105	1.0297	3.5297	4.9	8.4297	T	T	4.54	150.54	67	346.08988969703	6.2629215486816	0.25848473213053	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 10:56:25	FORECAST	2022	27	107	36.54	30.32	33.43	18.758466320663	1.0297	3.4197	4.94	8.3597	T	T	4.54	140.54	67	346.5130997601	6.5000543115182	0.25848473213053	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	36.51	30.35	33.43	27.325299497577	1.0297	3.5197	4.98	8.4997	T	T	4.51	145.51	67	351.92413255842	9.6164323225838	0.25756603486652	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 04:00:14	FORECAST	2022	27	107	36.39	29.59	32.99	27.393538523248	0.992	3.462	5.11	8.572	T	T	4.39	147.39	67	351.96676315376	9.6416150853557	0.25390825132533	89	2	5	1	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2021-10-22 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	35.35	30.09	32.72	25.77625579045	1.2008	3.6008	4.97	8.5708	T	T	3.35	147.35	67	350.95441658253	9.0462908126196	0.2233817068278	89	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2021-10-21 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.33	28.68	31.505	28.81556911051	0.7963	3.4363	5.67	9.1063	T	T	2.33	158.33	67	352.85346127816	10.167673299344	0.1955788866719	89	1	5	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-10-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2022	27	107	37.23	28.6	32.915	29.443003382228	0.7963	3.4163	5.55	8.9663	T	T	5.23	157.23	67	353.24367677092	10.400554769917	0.28007266587503	89	2	5	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-10-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.92	29.95	32.435	24.230410922808	0.6503	3.4003	5.35	8.7503	T	T	2.92	158.92	67	349.98289202206	8.4802292896474	0.21139656922974	89	1	5	1	5	2	2	35	WET	L
2021-10-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.93	29.78	32.355	7.0026164428194	0.6253	3.7253	5.27	8.9953	T	T	2.93	156.93	67	338.89352892101	2.3731413979874	0.21167095340909	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-21 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.79	29.77	32.28	6.975257590812	0.6253	3.7253	5.33	9.0553	T	T	2.79	152.79	67	338.87552955155	2.3637441098449	0.20784853635048	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-21 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.8	28.63	31.715	8.9316726227203	1.145	3.075	4.72	7.795	T	T	2.8	165.8	67	340.15950547606	3.0381933424186	0.20812020953546	89	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2021-10-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.28	29.72	32	7.5398259921952	0.8681	2.4781	4.71	7.1881	T	T	2.28	161.28	67	339.2467054134	2.5578611272426	0.19427219875025	89	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2021-10-20 16:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.32	29.85	32.085	6.6370087422417	0.7677	2.3777	4.88	7.2577	T	T	2.32	165.32	67	338.65289251435	2.2476422082032	0.19531712395034	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-20 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	35.06	32.82	33.94	5.3580835752767	0.9429	3.3429	5.31	8.6529	T	T	3.06	157.06	67	337.8093667405	1.8100108195069	0.21525683707111	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-20 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.79	34.04	34.415	4.4260604082454	0.6497	3.3597	5.53	8.8897	T	T	2.79	155.79	67	337.19291469382	1.4924362096672	0.20784853635048	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2021-10-20 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	27	107	34.78	34.05	34.415	4.9213901950469	0.3927	3.1027	5.78	8.8827	T	T	2.78	152.78	67	337.52071384421	1.6610711317381	0.20757707229234	89	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H