Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 26, 2021
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Wednesday, October 27, 2021 ]
DAY 26
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/27/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.08°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.135
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 134
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.65 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.59 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 106
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-10-27 04:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 33.76004 | 30.39998 | 32.08001 | 10.495578823529 | 1.15 | 2.65 | 5 | 7.65 | T | T | 1.76004 | 133.76004 | 68 | 342.15498273647 | 3.591114591174 | 0.13450124257189 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-27 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 33.59 | 33.59 | 33.59 | 5.1450034865014 | 0.046 | 1.546 | 5 | 6.546 | T | T | 1.59 | 133.59 | 67 | 337.66856149692 | 1.7373059261836 | 0.13068329722394 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.54 | 31.6 | 35.07 | 5.3662819303664 | 0.7031 | 2.2031 | 5 | 7.2031 | T | T | 6.54 | 138.54 | 67 | 337.81478276514 | 1.8128093645632 | 0.27253242554092 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 09:32:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.47 | 30.22 | 34.345 | 5.796039838759 | 0.8349 | 2.3349 | 5 | 7.3349 | T | T | 6.47 | 138.47 | 67 | 338.09853301276 | 1.959632566768 | 0.27010542474088 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-26 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.72 | 30.27 | 34.495 | 98.98870398021 | 0.8762 | 2.3762 | 5 | 7.3762 | T | T | 6.72 | 138.72 | 67 | 392.85932298805 | 38.88863522913 | 0.27882251642841 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-26 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 36.41 | 31.47 | 33.94 | 99.906717917834 | 1.0352 | 2.5352 | 5 | 7.5352 | T | T | 4.41 | 136.41 | 67 | 393.33687071559 | 39.296995789267 | 0.20383349996512 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-26 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.83 | 30.35 | 34.59 | 13.272485581553 | 1.2395 | 2.1295 | 5 | 7.1295 | T | T | 6.83 | 138.83 | 68 | 343.95249342409 | 4.5651045097103 | 0.28270088882395 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.73 | 30.36 | 34.545 | 11.288223755951 | 1.3128 | 2.9528 | 5 | 7.9528 | T | T | 6.73 | 139.73 | 68 | 342.66936083884 | 3.8681284194575 | 0.27917402442622 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.31 | 30.71 | 34.51 | 13.664684544803 | 2.0458 | 3.6858 | 5 | 8.6858 | T | T | 6.31 | 139.31 | 68 | 344.20534624898 | 4.703457475127 | 0.26459885418107 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.23 | 30.79 | 34.51 | 16.913388880049 | 2.3774 | 4.0174 | 5 | 9.0174 | T | T | 6.23 | 139.23 | 68 | 346.29014729411 | 5.8569399265146 | 0.26186711575029 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-25 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.33 | 30.93 | 34.63 | 14.417158561752 | 1.2686 | 3.1086 | 5 | 8.1086 | T | T | 6.33 | 141.33 | 68 | 344.68976570331 | 4.9694470067577 | 0.26528404385316 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.24 | 30.97 | 34.605 | 14.334752563102 | 1.273 | 3.113 | 5 | 8.113 | T | T | 6.24 | 143.24 | 68 | 344.63676040895 | 4.9402826846114 | 0.26220779143506 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-25 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.69 | 30.61 | 34.65 | 11.74628859193 | 1.0773 | 1.9473 | 5 | 6.9473 | T | T | 6.69 | 136.69 | 68 | 342.96614509278 | 4.0285793175214 | 0.27776928509058 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.59 | 31.3 | 34.945 | 11.196461139135 | 1.1473 | 2.6373 | 5 | 7.6373 | T | T | 6.59 | 150.59 | 68 | 342.609865502 | 3.8360180449773 | 0.27427259332211 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.4 | 31.3 | 34.85 | 12.235276906196 | 1.1266 | 2.6566 | 5 | 7.6566 | T | T | 6.4 | 146.4 | 68 | 343.28258411561 | 4.200157473729 | 0.26768927080946 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.78 | 30.63 | 34.705 | 12.347896815711 | 1.1281 | 2.6981 | 5 | 7.6981 | T | T | 6.78 | 146.78 | 68 | 343.35540817475 | 4.2397171512582 | 0.28093478470675 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.9 | 30.56 | 34.73 | 13.441732894877 | 1.0914 | 2.6514 | 5 | 7.6514 | T | T | 6.9 | 145.9 | 68 | 344.06163899257 | 4.6247846507118 | 0.28518235103073 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.95 | 30.63 | 34.79 | 13.660710365361 | 1.0441 | 2.6641 | 5 | 7.6641 | T | T | 6.95 | 140.95 | 68 | 344.20278533674 | 4.7020545574359 | 0.28696114862677 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-24 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 39.11 | 30.77 | 34.94 | 16.566283982576 | 1.2152 | 2.7152 | 4.45 | 7.1652 | T | T | 7.11 | 149.11 | 68 | 346.06821854634 | 5.7330643857829 | 0.29268830209671 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.75 | 31.77 | 35.26 | 16.230758921129 | 1.2867 | 2.7967 | 4.71 | 7.5067 | T | T | 6.75 | 156.75 | 68 | 345.85350754754 | 5.613464903031 | 0.27987768523946 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.28 | 31.25 | 34.765 | 16.560070479828 | 1.2892 | 2.7492 | 4.71 | 7.4592 | T | T | 6.28 | 155.28 | 68 | 346.06424403101 | 5.7308482717021 | 0.26357275816971 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 34.08 | 30.08 | 32.08 | 18.615175706181 | 1.3824 | 2.9424 | 4.71 | 7.6524 | T | T | 2.08 | 151.08 | 68 | 347.3753933803 | 6.4664539837781 | 0.14189068234235 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 34.42 | 31.27 | 32.845 | 19.679091879286 | 1.3816 | 3.0016 | 4.89 | 7.8916 | T | T | 2.42 | 146.42 | 68 | 348.05148389233 | 6.8493371302391 | 0.15003813206358 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 36.89 | 30.66 | 33.775 | 18.752939645158 | 1.3627 | 2.9327 | 4.93 | 7.8627 | T | T | 4.89 | 151.89 | 68 | 347.46304171624 | 6.5159534502275 | 0.21834803582547 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-23 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 34.41 | 30.79 | 32.6 | 13.66439703164 | 1.6602 | 3.3402 | 4.21 | 7.5502 | T | T | 2.41 | 147.41 | 68 | 344.20516097991 | 4.7033559799692 | 0.14979414824969 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-22 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.42 | 30.5 | 33.96 | 11.613543168387 | 1.8054 | 3.3154 | 4.54 | 7.8554 | T | T | 5.42 | 151.42 | 68 | 342.8801736915 | 3.9820536987503 | 0.23504408866134 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-22 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.42 | 30.48 | 33.95 | 12.430863587388 | 1.7808 | 3.2608 | 4.49 | 7.7508 | T | T | 5.42 | 146.42 | 68 | 343.40904413035 | 4.2688709822596 | 0.23504408866134 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-22 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 36.97 | 29.43 | 33.2 | 13.123643133952 | 1.7784 | 3.1184 | 4.47 | 7.5884 | T | T | 4.97 | 149.97 | 68 | 343.8564679257 | 4.512649574358 | 0.22082361758083 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-22 10:56:24 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 32.22 | 30.37 | 31.295 | 13.756546473987 | 1.6821 | 3.0021 | 4.52 | 7.5221 | T | T | 0.22 | 140.22 | 68 | 344.26453373963 | 4.7358910577347 | 0.10263910123477 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 32.22 | 30.36 | 31.29 | 22.239495765708 | 1.6821 | 3.1021 | 4.56 | 7.6621 | T | T | 0.22 | 145.22 | 68 | 349.67108301618 | 7.7765085701287 | 0.10263910123477 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 31.97 | 30.35 | 31.16 | 22.3579235267 | 1.6632 | 3.0932 | 4.68 | 7.7732 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 146.97 | 68 | 349.74574066179 | 7.8195885235052 | 0.098031606673877 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-22 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.63 | 28.71 | 33.17 | 20.476075997965 | 1.7221 | 3.1821 | 4.38 | 7.5621 | T | T | 5.63 | 147.63 | 68 | 348.55675056461 | 7.1370745141649 | 0.24184928003563 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.06 | 30.07 | 33.565 | 24.184289969107 | 1.7434 | 3.5234 | 4.98 | 8.5034 | T | T | 5.06 | 160.06 | 68 | 350.89425499387 | 8.4861284112655 | 0.22362772611133 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.05 | 30.05 | 33.55 | 24.877471358222 | 1.7434 | 3.4334 | 4.93 | 8.3634 | T | T | 5.05 | 156.05 | 68 | 351.328770615 | 8.7401714282941 | 0.22331516387824 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.12 | 30.97 | 34.545 | 20.479777855579 | 1.429 | 3.199 | 5.09 | 8.289 | T | T | 6.12 | 160.12 | 68 | 348.55909505794 | 7.1384128363282 | 0.25813470289629 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-21 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.4 | 32.72 | 35.06 | 5.9304843864864 | 1.7858 | 3.4758 | 5.08 | 8.5558 | T | T | 5.4 | 158.4 | 68 | 339.1722729938 | 2.0114558693188 | 0.23440152932442 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-21 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.96 | 32.51 | 35.235 | 5.8326300933368 | 1.7858 | 3.4858 | 5.13 | 8.6158 | T | T | 5.96 | 153.96 | 68 | 339.10795824955 | 1.9778912821763 | 0.25275532642023 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-21 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.28 | 32.63 | 36.955 | 4.6241513794307 | 1.5402 | 2.2702 | 4.57 | 6.8402 | T | T | 9.28 | 167.28 | 68 | 338.31236635386 | 1.5644075955537 | 0.37502492089036 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.59 | 32.4 | 36.995 | 5.3086387712506 | 1.2246 | 1.9646 | 4.55 | 6.5146 | T | T | 9.59 | 162.59 | 68 | 338.76329278463 | 1.798371950353 | 0.38738175694353 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.64 | 32.37 | 37.005 | 5.0154825495984 | 1.2246 | 1.9446 | 4.74 | 6.6846 | T | T | 9.64 | 166.64 | 68 | 338.57026338062 | 1.6980932477984 | 0.38938589159311 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.03 | 31.88 | 36.455 | 5.48562090861 | 1.2596 | 2.7896 | 5.11 | 7.8996 | T | T | 9.03 | 158.03 | 68 | 338.87975752872 | 1.8589658834042 | 0.36515164120836 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.13 | 33.81 | 37.47 | 4.5290524082454 | 1.3965 | 3.1365 | 5.29 | 8.4265 | T | T | 9.13 | 157.13 | 68 | 338.24965502725 | 1.5319504146894 | 0.36909065880935 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 41.03 | 33.79 | 37.41 | 4.9867168617136 | 1.3965 | 3.1365 | 5.54 | 8.6765 | T | T | 9.03 | 154.03 | 68 | 338.5513148008 | 1.6882595500725 | 0.36515164120836 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-20 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 36.18 | 31.55 | 33.865 | 2.6606209641083 | 2.3381 | 3.4281 | 4.8 | 8.2281 | T | T | 4.18 | 145.18 | 68 | 337.01447364653 | 0.8966677737919 | 0.19708700774639 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-19 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 38.02 | 27.57 | 32.795 | 4.7991979426896 | 1.6172 | 2.7372 | 5.04 | 7.7772 | T | T | 6.02 | 161.02 | 68 | 338.42775810408 | 1.6241818004422 | 0.25476566112997 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-19 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 37.95 | 27.51 | 32.73 | 4.5316310794325 | 1.34 | 2.4 | 5.05 | 7.45 | T | T | 5.95 | 157.95 | 68 | 338.25135568596 | 1.5328303560867 | 0.25242108339984 | 88 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 80 | WET | H |
| 2021-10-19 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 34.48 | 29.26 | 31.87 | 3.6802748810483 | 0.4588 | 2.1588 | 5.03 | 7.1888 | T | T | 2.48 | 148.48 | 68 | 337.68927232173 | 1.2427893465251 | 0.15150758147205 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-19 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 32.92 | 30.95 | 31.935 | 1.7473752233284 | 0.3662 | 2.0862 | 4.79 | 6.8762 | T | T | 0.92 | 152.92 | 68 | 336.40860963046 | 0.58783206938261 | 0.11636988685013 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |
| 2021-10-19 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 26 | 106 | 32.28 | 30.94 | 31.61 | 1.4899115123691 | 0.1748 | 1.8948 | 4.84 | 6.7348 | T | T | 0.28 | 151.28 | 68 | 336.23754936234 | 0.50096419568573 | 0.10376787691774 | 88 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 70 | WET | L |