MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 25, 2021

[ Sunday, October 24, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 26, 2021 ]

DAY 25 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/26/2021 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.093
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 144

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.64 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION20222510532.0599430.3699231.2149396.9196764705880.64000000000012.05000000000014.456.5000000000001TT0.059939999999997144.0599469393.33951257489 38.1223383018570.09319832012670688 15151217.5WETL
2021-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20222510532.0432.0432.0410.0889495336910.02521.43524.455.8852TF0.039999999999999144.0468341.890703007383.44931804867960.092874153352498815143242WETM
2021-10-25 12:00:01FORECAST20222510533.0431.2732.15510.4621934319890.78012.19014.456.6401TT1.04145.0468342.133294922193.57946471099970.110174198540948815153252.5WETH
2021-10-25 08:00:02FORECAST20222510535.331.4933.39510.9065927783510.97652.38654.456.8365TT3.3147.368342.421834936933.73465551207290.157443494413348815153252.5WETH
2021-10-25 04:00:09FORECAST20222510536.7431.1733.95510.829270428040.97782.38784.456.8378TT4.74148.7468342.371654412073.70763523252390.193644564981168815153252.5WETH
2021-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20222510533.6329.9431.7858.77139989327980.86911.41914.455.8691TF1.63141.6369342.006757431762.99987803563790.121403213678818815143242WETL
2021-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20222510537.9131.8834.8958.09200459945490.9552.0354.456.485TT5.91155.9169341.564790429762.76394385516950.226496430912158815153252.5WETH
2021-10-24 16:00:01FORECAST20222510533.5531.8732.719.14021146090811.00332.08334.456.5333TT1.55151.5569342.246361211423.12820411319870.119835309971828815153252.5WETH
2021-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20222510533.7931.5232.6559.36673065729961.04452.12454.456.5745TT1.79151.7969342.393411464343.20710686402040.124582022806128815153252.5WETH
2021-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20222510533.8430.4232.1310.0037542043410.9912.1114.456.561TT1.84150.8469342.806497011623.42935193575540.125587191678938815153252.5WETH
2021-10-24 04:00:13FORECAST20222510533.8731.1632.51510.3589223044610.92232.17234.456.6223TT1.87145.8769343.036519971083.55348865797330.126192994015718815153252.5WETH
2021-10-24 00:00:05FORECAST20222510534.130.5432.3212.5991850244330.81421.50424.455.9542TF2.1154.169344.482642984414.34020055666630.130904956446518815153252.5WETM
2021-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20222510539.431.3835.3912.0314727704560.83411.77414.456.2241TT7.4162.469344.11695431534.14023376569690.27254282675568825153260WETH
2021-10-23 16:00:01FORECAST20222510538.9231.4735.19511.9491623415880.87261.72264.456.1726TT6.92160.9269344.063890730564.11127528621790.257218501592988825153260WETH
2021-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20222510538.8931.3135.112.9027787970971.02961.81964.456.2696TT6.89160.8969344.677984923844.44730379570150.256275802869748825153260WETH
2021-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20222510538.2131.4134.8114.1178076118421.1342.0644.456.514TT6.21156.2169345.458267255234.87711335502940.235399660398198815153252.5WETH
2021-10-23 04:00:13FORECAST20222510538.2130.5134.3613.6586110023091.08072.05074.456.5007TT6.21159.2169345.163657693354.71445613256760.235399660398198815153252.5WETH
2021-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20222510538.5430.334.426.54824362496831.05742.15743.735.8874TT6.54156.5469340.55768767422.23005470724650.245411948462698815154270WETH
2021-10-22 20:00:04FORECAST20222510538.4832.335.394.75456907664140.8792.0394.016.049TT6.48158.4869339.382578423281.61361791252210.24357470374628815154270WETH
2021-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20222510534.0429.9431.995.23164703808630.78941.95944.015.9694TT2.04153.0469339.695654425451.77716776432570.12966422048318815154270WETL
2021-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20222510537.630.0833.845.17713649605690.72391.80394.015.8139TF5.6156.669339.659901808981.75846567390240.217499211038898815154270WETM
2021-10-22 10:56:24FORECAST20222510532.829.9431.375.46386535668820.70511.80514.035.8351TT0.8151.869339.847907357641.85688320755440.10582577776448815154270WETL
2021-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20222510538.1929.7133.9513.8209599996060.80881.89884.085.9788TT6.19157.1969345.267856196944.77193322964750.234800175299678815153252.5WETH
2021-10-22 04:00:14FORECAST20222510538.2629.5633.9113.8972281525060.80561.95564.156.1056TT6.26159.2669345.316791635784.79894623825390.236902056270098815153252.5WETH
2021-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20222510538.4230.2134.31513.0345614973590.67551.92553.915.8355TT6.42154.4269344.762731253084.49383102251570.241744901556748815153252.5WETH
2021-10-21 20:00:04FORECAST20222510537.8829.733.7915.396442145710.90322.39324.376.7632TT5.88166.8869346.276800369665.3314307232930.22561666843898815152235WETL
2021-10-21 16:00:05FORECAST20222510537.8929.6933.7915.8809809584770.87942.32944.296.6194TT5.89162.8969346.586289746175.50413026792810.225909707924278815152235WETL
2021-10-21 12:00:06FORECAST20222510538.8629.3534.10514.7676138919631.31972.41974.446.8597TT6.86165.8669345.874580683595.10774226257990.255334905805568825152240WETL
2021-10-21 08:00:05FORECAST20222510539.8630.7435.36.09484302196141.30692.27694.496.7669TT7.86164.8669340.261151890752.07383830724590.287641428919488825154280WETH
2021-10-21 04:00:14FORECAST20222510534.7631.7933.2756.0454507585961.30692.33694.496.8269TT2.76159.7669340.22882743392.05683662290650.145093424770248815154270WETH
2021-10-21 00:00:05FORECAST20222510542.2731.3136.795.0726367127640.39191.52193.785.3019TF10.27170.2769339.591348184191.72262354013610.372470937093388825154280WETM
2021-10-20 20:00:05FORECAST20222510541.731.336.55.69813877125060.39451.39453.95.2945TF9.7164.769340.001416731881.93737525496010.351642811438478825144264WETM
2021-10-20 16:00:05FORECAST20222510541.731.2836.495.4055292162650.39451.47453.995.4645TF9.7168.769339.809667966361.83685108816150.351642811438478825144264WETM
2021-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20222510540.830.7735.7855.87965824194331.13752.55754.086.6375TT8.8160.869340.120295904981.99979110106990.319664523203518825154280WETH
2021-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20222510540.9231.9736.4455.02460574157881.31472.71474.327.0347TT8.92159.9269339.559832950671.70615428625350.323858082215038825154280WETH
2021-10-20 04:00:14FORECAST20222510540.9131.9636.4355.47926352838021.31472.77474.517.2847TT8.91156.9169339.857999927561.86217154383130.323507754768628825154280WETH
2021-10-20 00:00:04FORECAST20222510532.7530.1531.452.7943356307750.32681.72684.165.8868TT0.75152.7569338.092212306970.944743115336910.104935638259038815154270WETL
2021-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20222510536.4927.632.0454.19262450663760.36631.84634.316.1563TT4.49167.4969339.013322907811.42135556569990.187020568099638815154270WETH
2021-10-19 16:00:04FORECAST20222510536.4927.5532.023.83858501818410.36631.74634.366.1063TT4.49164.4969338.780411688521.30043741276180.187020568099638815154270WETH
2021-10-19 12:00:04FORECAST20222510531.7828.730.243.61943683015630.75892.38894.346.7289TT-0.22157.7869338.636136143551.22567210317980.0887230862524968815154270WETL
2021-10-19 08:00:06FORECAST20222510538.4930.0434.2651.7613698899950.76092.25094.266.5109TT6.49164.4969337.409651007790.594303199878860.243880395231078815154270WETH
2021-10-19 04:00:14FORECAST20222510538.513034.2551.49144217903580.76092.30094.266.5609TT6.51162.5169337.230993317850.502960527512380.244492397815238815154270WETH
2021-10-19 00:00:05FORECAST20222510532.9529.0831.0153.13162135991061.10182.91184.427.3318TT0.95166.9569338.314695818041.05947352779540.108528806616878815154270WETL
2021-10-18 20:00:05FORECAST20222510538.8629.834.330.832534656171120.77452.62454.387.0045TT6.86179.8669336.794365849940.280392981573250.255334905805568825154280WETH
2021-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20222510539.0129.8534.430.474365690079730.61552.51554.527.0355TT7.01180.0169336.556717131010.159650959372820.260057361448038825154280WETH
2021-10-18 12:00:06FORECAST20222510534.7332.3633.54511.8948813333330.95621.85623.955.8062TT2.73166.7369344.028890978794.09218283343090.144426918875088815153252.5WETH
2021-10-18 08:00:05FORECAST20222510533.9932.5633.27520.9928571890190.66661.87663.85.6766TF1.99168.9969349.828295666217.34389545159860.128636496049368815152235WETL
2021-10-18 04:00:13FORECAST20222510533.9232.6233.2719.414075982790.33991.54993.745.2899TF1.92176.9269348.831504985426.7722413429780.127207171388488815152235WETL