Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 21, 2021
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Friday, October 22, 2021 ]
DAY 21
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.89°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.522
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 173
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.84 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 101
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 54.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-10-22 04:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 46.90004 | 34.88 | 40.89002 | 7.68207125 | 0.56999999999994 | 1.1399999999999 | 2.7 | 3.8399999999999 | T | F | 14.90004 | 172.90004 | 73 | 345.16860850443 | 2.6516098437944 | 0.52215858156051 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-22 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 41.24 | 41.24 | 41.24 | 6.949488 | 0.0538 | 0.6238 | 2.7 | 3.3238 | F | F | 9.24 | 167.24 | 72 | 343.73389944328 | 2.3887746093743 | 0.31462007018692 | 94 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-21 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.03 | 41.08 | 46.055 | 7.0255666666667 | 0.4693 | 1.0393 | 2.7 | 3.7393 | T | F | 19.03 | 177.03 | 72 | 343.78300970793 | 2.4152704535703 | 0.67306881062137 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 72 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-21 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.64 | 37.02 | 44.33 | 6.874468 | 0.5514 | 1.1214 | 2.7 | 3.8214 | T | F | 19.64 | 177.64 | 72 | 343.68546327486 | 2.3626547193482 | 0.69372149690174 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 72 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-21 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.88 | 38.15 | 45.015 | 7.0794348333333 | 0.5761 | 1.1461 | 2.7 | 3.8461 | T | F | 19.88 | 177.88 | 72 | 343.81777692298 | 2.4340355462678 | 0.70168618357078 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2021-10-21 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.21 | 37.65 | 44.93 | 6.5421493333333 | 0.5609 | 0.5609 | 2.7 | 3.2609 | F | F | 20.21 | 173.21 | 73 | 344.43578922072 | 2.2533503688265 | 0.71248100237623 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-20 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.21 | 38.01 | 45.11 | 6.5686626666667 | 0.4819 | 0.6419 | 2.7 | 3.3419 | F | F | 20.21 | 174.21 | 73 | 344.45285790599 | 2.2625946281537 | 0.71248100237623 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-20 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.16 | 36.14 | 44.15 | 6.5641253333333 | 0.486 | 0.646 | 2.7 | 3.346 | F | F | 20.16 | 174.16 | 73 | 344.44993695478 | 2.2610125572299 | 0.71085733657154 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-20 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 46.06 | 38.6 | 42.33 | 6.3179066666667 | 0.6155 | 0.7755 | 2.7 | 3.4755 | T | F | 14.06 | 168.06 | 73 | 344.29138087289 | 2.1752008104927 | 0.49029476277326 | 94 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 48 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-20 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.77 | 37.9 | 44.335 | 6.193212 | 0.7291 | 1.0691 | 2.7 | 3.7691 | T | F | 18.77 | 171.77 | 73 | 344.21104409999 | 2.1317719688526 | 0.66409743016751 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 72 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-20 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.7 | 38.05 | 44.375 | 6.4911885 | 0.7971 | 1.2771 | 2.7 | 3.9771 | T | F | 18.7 | 171.7 | 73 | 344.40297855885 | 2.235584653787 | 0.66166573616263 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 72 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-20 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.02 | 38.67 | 45.345 | 2.7224773333333 | 0.5574 | 1.0074 | 2.7 | 3.7074 | T | F | 20.02 | 169.02 | 73 | 341.96472011021 | 0.93099119929972 | 0.70628830977327 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 80 | DRY | VH |
| 2021-10-19 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.65 | 38.57 | 45.11 | 3.7200173333333 | 0.4908 | 0.9508 | 2.7 | 3.6508 | T | F | 19.65 | 178.65 | 73 | 342.61237568946 | 1.2745239761793 | 0.69405522767907 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-19 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.84 | 38.06 | 44.45 | 3.692192 | 0.5664 | 1.0764 | 2.7 | 3.7764 | T | F | 18.84 | 177.84 | 73 | 342.59433225521 | 1.264924052798 | 0.6665222785856 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 72 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-19 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.79 | 37.99 | 44.39 | 2.6558213333333 | 0.4468 | 0.8868 | 2.7 | 3.5868 | T | F | 18.79 | 177.79 | 73 | 341.92138500194 | 0.90808210861103 | 0.66479094638359 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-19 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.69 | 37.39 | 44.54 | 2.5465426666667 | 0.4041 | 0.8541 | 2.7 | 3.5541 | T | F | 19.69 | 178.69 | 73 | 341.85032371581 | 0.87053643495611 | 0.69538853971378 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-19 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.78 | 36.77 | 43.775 | 2.4411899166667 | 0.3771 | 0.8071 | 2.7 | 3.5071 | T | F | 18.78 | 175.78 | 73 | 341.7817966821 | 0.83435427576056 | 0.66444425825763 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-19 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.63 | 37.31 | 44.47 | 0.36166 | 0.2374 | 0.7074 | 2.7 | 3.4074 | T | F | 19.63 | 179.63 | 73 | 340.42539970355 | 0.12311825005679 | 0.693387605464 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-18 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.94 | 36.8 | 43.87 | 1.3430186666667 | 0.2068 | 0.6168 | 2.7 | 3.3168 | F | F | 18.94 | 188.94 | 73 | 341.06639480645 | 0.45805853479776 | 0.66997429900155 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-18 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.52 | 36.06 | 43.79 | 1.3496333333333 | 0.0725 | 0.6825 | 2.7 | 3.3825 | F | F | 19.52 | 186.52 | 73 | 341.07070989666 | 0.4603203991002 | 0.68970426047417 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-18 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 47.59 | 36.45 | 42.02 | 13.917766666667 | 0.0066 | 0.6466 | 2.7 | 3.3466 | F | F | 15.59 | 182.59 | 73 | 349.14000287464 | 4.8592490940086 | 0.54823311901974 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-18 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 46.76 | 35.6 | 41.18 | 13.834892 | 0.0156 | 0.4656 | 2.7 | 3.1656 | F | F | 14.76 | 180.76 | 73 | 349.08763297218 | 4.8295897007057 | 0.51685101148745 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-18 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.82 | 35.8 | 44.31 | 14.189867837175 | 0.0148 | 0.4048 | 2.71 | 3.1148 | F | F | 20.82 | 188.82 | 73 | 349.31187070713 | 4.9566892792904 | 0.7319346469303 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 30 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-18 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.89 | 36.97 | 44.43 | 1.6080253333333 | 0.0311 | 0.4611 | 2.71 | 3.1711 | F | F | 19.89 | 169.89 | 73 | 341.2392156843 | 0.54872130354715 | 0.70201599227614 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-17 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.95 | 36.5 | 44.225 | 2.5037213333333 | 0.0597 | 0.4197 | 2.76 | 3.1797 | F | F | 19.95 | 181.95 | 73 | 341.82247265432 | 0.85582821699737 | 0.70399134820584 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-17 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.69 | 36.43 | 44.06 | 2.6103213333333 | 0.064 | 0.454 | 2.77 | 3.224 | F | F | 19.69 | 180.69 | 73 | 341.89179984386 | 0.89244745882415 | 0.69538853971378 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-17 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.83 | 36.22 | 44.025 | 2.2470339849112 | 0.0895 | 0.3895 | 2.77 | 3.1595 | F | F | 19.83 | 181.83 | 73 | 341.65545928689 | 0.76771142814809 | 0.70003465552584 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-17 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.02 | 36 | 43.01 | 2.332199031022 | 0.0526 | 0.4026 | 2.79 | 3.1926 | F | F | 18.02 | 177.02 | 73 | 341.71088391041 | 0.7969377923455 | 0.63770568867917 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-17 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.15 | 35.93 | 43.54 | 2.4584699089766 | 0.0387 | 0.3687 | 2.82 | 3.1887 | F | F | 19.15 | 176.15 | 73 | 341.79303776569 | 0.84028789844465 | 0.67717636558808 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-17 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.38 | 37.25 | 43.315 | 13.659610760852 | 0.9153 | 1.2553 | 2.91 | 4.1653 | T | F | 17.38 | 151.38 | 73 | 348.97683347362 | 4.7668877098043 | 0.61464933608736 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 54 | WET | MH |
| 2021-10-16 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.9 | 36.73 | 43.315 | 14.130109522572 | 0.918 | 1.248 | 2.9 | 4.148 | T | F | 17.9 | 170.9 | 73 | 349.27413561597 | 4.9352817896553 | 0.63341762474897 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 54 | WET | MH |
| 2021-10-16 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.86 | 36.72 | 43.29 | 14.182639550713 | 0.9246 | 1.2946 | 2.98 | 4.2746 | T | F | 17.86 | 173.86 | 73 | 349.30730662506 | 4.9540996222937 | 0.63198453207179 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 54 | WET | MH |
| 2021-10-16 12:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.82 | 35.53 | 42.675 | 13.525906709547 | 0.434 | 0.784 | 2.99 | 3.774 | T | F | 17.82 | 167.82 | 73 | 348.89228274637 | 4.7190844681083 | 0.63054960087632 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-16 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.79 | 35.5 | 42.645 | 13.47649234784 | 0.434 | 0.764 | 3.04 | 3.804 | T | F | 17.79 | 166.79 | 73 | 348.86102720911 | 4.7014229636432 | 0.6294722070272 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-16 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.27 | 36.04 | 42.655 | 13.798094975339 | 0.4337 | 0.7637 | 3.03 | 3.7937 | T | F | 17.27 | 164.27 | 73 | 349.06437677618 | 4.8164234232652 | 0.61064279066681 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 40.5 | DRY | M |
| 2021-10-16 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.77 | 35.7 | 43.735 | 2.2763694424718 | 0.0282 | 0.5082 | 2.97 | 3.4782 | F | F | 19.77 | 166.77 | 73 | 341.67455188472 | 0.77777750918064 | 0.69804738442429 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-15 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.75 | 35.72 | 43.735 | 2.6081067489496 | 0.0282 | 0.5482 | 2.94 | 3.4882 | T | F | 19.75 | 182.75 | 73 | 341.89035978233 | 0.89168655474909 | 0.69738365008681 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-15 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 52.09 | 36.06 | 44.075 | 2.4744370136435 | 0.0285 | 0.5585 | 2.93 | 3.4885 | T | F | 20.09 | 182.09 | 73 | 341.80342434321 | 0.84577104458493 | 0.70857699624124 | 94 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
| 2021-10-15 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 51.44 | 36.47 | 43.955 | 1.7195048716209 | 0.1439 | 0.7639 | 2.93 | 3.6939 | T | F | 19.44 | 180.44 | 73 | 341.31188095729 | 0.58688744204817 | 0.68701344326495 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-15 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.81 | 35.69 | 42.75 | 2.3382006026824 | 0.1459 | 0.7459 | 3.03 | 3.7759 | T | F | 17.81 | 165.81 | 73 | 341.71478922548 | 0.79899772611249 | 0.63019058296533 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-15 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 49.76 | 35.67 | 42.715 | 2.0103113486926 | 0.1459 | 0.7459 | 2.99 | 3.7359 | T | F | 17.76 | 166.76 | 73 | 341.50133939396 | 0.68652401817739 | 0.62839379716588 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 54 | DRY | MH |
| 2021-10-15 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.08 | 37.24 | 43.66 | 6.4360226803282 | 0.0974 | 0.2274 | 2.21 | 2.4374 | F | F | 18.08 | 168.08 | 73 | 344.36745576789 | 2.2163567556891 | 0.63984330027557 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-14 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.37 | 36.42 | 43.395 | 7.0769100489127 | 0.0632 | 0.1332 | 2.41 | 2.5432 | F | F | 18.37 | 174.37 | 73 | 344.7798339761 | 2.4399758717279 | 0.65011252441942 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 36 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-14 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 50.97 | 36.39 | 43.68 | 7.6303001239463 | 0.0464 | 0.1164 | 2.5 | 2.6164 | F | F | 18.97 | 175.97 | 73 | 345.13537247986 | 2.6334864754114 | 0.67100710810022 | 94 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-14 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 44.67 | 37.56 | 41.115 | 7.6501763046787 | 0 | 0.03 | 2.57 | 2.6 | F | F | 12.67 | 175.67 | 73 | 345.14813310611 | 2.6404440694925 | 0.43780294812303 | 94 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-14 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 38.23 | 37.79 | 38.01 | 7.4345200741403 | 0 | 0.03 | 2.71 | 2.74 | F | F | 6.23 | 162.23 | 73 | 345.00964609249 | 2.5649811396467 | 0.22090525223984 | 94 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-10-14 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 21 | 101 | 38.23 | 37.77 | 38 | 7.0169408682525 | 0 | 0.03 | 2.75 | 2.78 | F | F | 6.23 | 176.23 | 73 | 344.74127534075 | 2.419029143912 | 0.22090525223984 | 94 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | DRY | L |