Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 20, 2021

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DAY 20 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/21/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.46°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.23°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.415 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 176 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.57 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.27 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 74 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.56 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 100 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 36.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-21 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2022	20	100	44.45996	32.23004	38.345	8.3628441666667	0.57000000000005	0.57000000000005	2.7	3.27	F	F	12.45996	176.45996	74	346.56214551886	2.8982452170399	0.41507510916355	93	2	5	1	3	3	2	36	DRY	L
2021-10-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	38.68	38.68	38.68	7.9634826666667	0.0011	0.0011	2.7	2.7011	F	F	6.68	170.68	73	345.3491925646	2.7501823089355	0.21328423208986	93	1	5	1	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2021-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	39.72	35.92	37.82	7.6288133333333	0.158	0.158	2.7	2.858	F	F	7.72	171.72	73	345.13441792555	2.6329660492627	0.24490928132405	93	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-20 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	20	100	39.03	34.95	36.99	7.5344586666667	0.3416	0.3416	2.7	3.0416	F	F	7.03	171.03	73	345.07383265079	2.5999445290556	0.2236529089675	93	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-20 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	20	100	39.33	35.79	37.56	7.8511858333333	0.4827	0.4827	2.7	3.1827	F	F	7.33	171.33	73	345.27714622399	2.7108350390076	0.23276361669643	93	1	5	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.55	34.87	38.71	4.1625613333333	0.4503	0.4503	2.7	3.1503	F	F	10.55	166.55	74	343.86633789079	1.4313647219391	0.34224680851454	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.68	36.25	39.465	5.164584	0.4624	0.4624	2.7	3.1624	F	F	10.68	176.68	74	344.51206642657	1.7792615060736	0.34705562476512	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.67	36.47	39.57	5.102756	0.5126	0.5126	2.7	3.2126	F	F	10.67	176.67	74	344.47227047015	1.7577579449752	0.34668482854655	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.38	36.26	39.82	4.0559986666667	0.4365	0.4365	2.7	3.1365	F	F	11.38	177.38	74	343.79756950315	1.394442483508	0.37335673742938	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.45	36.59	40.02	3.9061026666667	0.4504	0.4504	2.7	3.1504	F	F	11.45	177.45	74	343.70080518117	1.3425306316537	0.3760219893734	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-19 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.37	35.3	39.335	3.7762045833333	0.4275	0.4275	2.7	3.1275	F	F	11.37	175.37	74	343.61692057344	1.2975677903803	0.37297647769355	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.44	35.5	39.47	1.7417746666667	0.4661	0.4661	2.7	3.1661	F	F	11.44	178.44	74	342.29952410905	0.5962086395052	0.37564087359954	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	45.66	34.88	40.27	2.7429773333333	0.4099	0.4099	2.7	3.1099	F	F	13.66	187.66	74	342.94870431906	0.94070052244321	0.46256169442982	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-18 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.95	35.09	39.02	2.7667573333333	0.6076	0.6076	2.7	3.3076	F	F	10.95	184.95	74	342.9641032182	0.94889844764903	0.35712142289562	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.02	35.14	39.08	15.169524	0.6375	0.6375	2.7	3.3375	F	F	11.02	185.02	74	350.87016938578	5.3225334553817	0.3597477217822	93	2	5	1	3	2	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.26	34.85	39.055	15.089710666667	0.4458	0.4458	2.7	3.1458	F	F	11.26	184.26	74	350.82008497274	5.2937735782941	0.36880185778656	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.24	34.81	39.025	15.592450503841	0.3934	0.4034	2.7	3.1034	F	F	11.24	186.24	74	351.13539457842	5.4750612601109	0.36804447913517	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.85	35.7	39.275	3.0451026666667	0.426	0.436	2.7	3.136	F	F	10.85	167.85	74	343.1442784706	1.0449095574222	0.35338130246037	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.26	36.55	39.905	3.8867333333333	0.3616	0.3716	2.75	3.1216	F	F	11.26	180.26	74	343.68829875443	1.3358247670455	0.36880185778656	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.27	36.36	39.815	4.0185893333333	0.3858	0.4058	2.75	3.1558	F	F	11.27	179.27	74	343.77342361759	1.3814842132331	0.36918073840526	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.63	35.24	39.435	3.6099833182446	0.3011	0.3211	2.75	3.0711	F	F	11.63	179.63	74	343.5095390786	1.2400637057316	0.38290241263282	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.75	35.23	38.99	3.583847031022	0.3542	0.3642	2.78	3.1442	F	F	10.75	176.75	74	343.49265050975	1.2310251157072	0.34965528011672	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.66	35.69	39.175	3.7475645756433	0.3339	0.3439	2.81	3.1539	F	F	10.66	174.66	74	343.59842192045	1.287657274236	0.34631417905582	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.43	35.84	39.135	14.893109427518	0.3417	0.4017	2.85	3.2517	F	F	10.43	152.43	74	350.6966705684	5.2229638906416	0.33783045701901	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.31	36.06	39.685	15.368528189238	0.333	0.363	2.87	3.233	F	F	11.31	171.31	74	350.99500415971	5.3942766157104	0.37069752825209	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	44.56	36.14	40.35	15.416411550713	0.3699	0.4099	2.94	3.3499	F	F	12.56	173.56	74	351.02503184219	5.4115463554815	0.41899650970586	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 12:00:09	FORECAST	2022	20	100	45.32	35.94	40.63	14.68254404288	0.3453	0.3753	2.96	3.3353	F	F	13.32	168.32	74	350.56442194696	5.1471775651031	0.44902297067976	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	42.69	35.66	39.175	14.629685681173	0.3263	0.4163	2.95	3.3663	F	F	10.69	166.69	74	350.53121238389	5.1281614586169	0.34742656739601	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	20	100	41.05	35.63	38.34	15.065596308672	0.3332	0.3832	2.98	3.3632	F	F	9.05	165.05	74	350.80495074851	5.2850857710607	0.28876371158738	93	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2022	20	100	40.91	35.49	38.2	3.6500881091385	0.4769	0.4869	2.96	3.4469	F	F	8.91	164.91	74	343.53545154043	1.2539346667352	0.2839787190854	93	2	5	1	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-15 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.3	34.78	39.04	3.9799667489496	0.5152	0.5452	2.91	3.4552	F	F	11.3	181.3	74	343.74849223085	1.3681075690803	0.37031814136411	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.36	36.18	39.77	3.8957703469768	0.5329	0.5529	2.91	3.4629	T	F	11.36	180.36	74	343.69413386658	1.3389534151473	0.37259634162399	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	45.03	36.92	40.975	3.0888502049543	0.6228	0.6428	2.91	3.5528	T	F	13.03	179.03	74	343.17258503451	1.0600087096185	0.4375213384517	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-15 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.46	36.76	40.11	3.5018899360157	0.5984	0.6284	3	3.6284	T	F	11.46	166.46	74	343.43968475921	1.2026879756867	0.37640322605898	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-15 04:00:14	FORECAST	2022	20	100	43.45	36.75	40.1	3.1717046820259	0.5984	0.6084	2.98	3.5884	T	F	11.45	167.45	74	343.22618687323	1.0886121038997	0.3760219893734	93	2	5	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2021-10-15 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	44.91	37.02	40.965	7.6584786803282	0.1334	0.1534	2.19	2.3434	F	F	12.91	167.91	74	346.11207740943	2.6506919658443	0.43277687251177	93	2	5	1	2	3	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-14 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	20	100	47.07	36.97	42.02	8.0785127155793	0.0672	0.0872	2.39	2.4772	F	F	15.07	174.07	74	346.38056328476	2.7982397849255	0.51899528330247	93	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	DRY	L
2021-10-14 16:00:05	FORECAST	2022	20	100	47.07	36.94	42.005	8.3874881239463	0.0672	0.0872	2.48	2.5672	F	F	15.07	175.07	74	346.57787768321	2.9069178330905	0.51899528330247	93	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	DRY	L
2021-10-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	50.52	39.36	44.94	8.1093763046787	0.0338	0.0638	2.54	2.6038	F	F	18.52	180.52	74	346.40028000499	2.8090902226065	0.65325995577626	93	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	DRY	L
2021-10-14 08:00:06	FORECAST	2022	20	100	50.23	38.96	44.595	7.693038740807	0.0332	0.0832	2.66	2.7432	F	F	18.23	174.23	74	346.13417902616	2.6628236487657	0.64244797282377	93	3	5	1	1	3	2	13.5	DRY	L
2021-10-14 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	20	100	50.22	38.96	44.59	7.1782622015858	0.0332	0.0532	2.73	2.7832	F	F	18.22	188.22	74	345.80477174719	2.4822773221609	0.64207304001001	93	3	5	1	1	4	2	18	DRY	L
2021-10-14 00:00:06	FORECAST	2022	20	100	55.34	39.12	47.23	0	0.0118	0.0218	2.67	2.6918	F	F	23.34	193.34	74	341.1662149952	0	0.81011565534913	93	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-10-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	20	100	55.38	39.06	47.22	0	0	0.01	2.79	2.8	F	F	23.38	198.38	74	341.1662149952	0	0.81120403219804	93	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	55.4	39.05	47.225	0	0	0.01	2.65	2.66	F	F	23.4	192.4	74	341.1662149952	0	0.81174677919467	93	4	5	1	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-10-13 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	20	100	49.14	38.22	43.68	0	0	0.03	2.63	2.66	F	F	17.14	202.14	74	341.1662149952	0	0.60084466726125	93	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2021-10-13 09:28:35	FORECAST	2022	20	100	41.7	38.21	39.955	0.075893479802234	0	0.03	2.74	2.77	F	F	9.7	182.7	74	341.21570065302	0.025896046885715	0.31146133991684	93	2	5	1	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2021-10-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	20	100	39.38	38.2	38.79	0	0	0.03	2.76	2.79	F	F	7.38	178.38	74	341.1662149952	0	0.23430183599052	93	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-10-13 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	20	100	38.31	37.72	38.015	0	0	0.03	2.8	2.83	F	F	6.31	171.31	74	341.1662149952	0	0.20263337556707	93	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L