Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 18, 2021

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DAY 18 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/19/2021 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.62°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.80°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.21°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.148 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.70 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 4 in SWE DAY: 76 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.83 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 98 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-19 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2022	18	98	37.61996	32.79992	35.20994	5.79231125	0	0	2.7	2.7	F	F	5.61996	185.61996	76	346.83114569878	2.0089539470814	0.14760005708681	93	1	4	1	1	4	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	18	98	38.45	38.45	38.45	3.96474	0	0	2.7	2.7	F	F	6.45	186.45	75	344.70264285157	1.3666563562193	0.16895230606993	93	1	4	1	1	4	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	18	98	45.35	35.13	40.24	17.491108	0.0025	0.0025	2.7	2.7025	F	F	13.35	193.35	75	353.25399755861	6.1788038227294	0.4116451362072	93	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2021-10-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	18	98	44.4	35.1	39.75	17.392817333333	0.0014	0.0014	2.7	2.7014	F	F	12.4	192.4	75	353.19291203023	6.1430198023699	0.37278244996608	93	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2021-10-18 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	18	98	45.54	34.88	40.21	17.7418905	0.0074	0.0074	2.7	2.7074	F	F	13.54	193.54	75	353.40978439392	6.2701576963455	0.41953639990115	93	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2021-10-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.57	33.76	38.665	5.3147533333333	0.0086	0.0086	2.7	2.7086	F	F	11.57	176.57	76	346.52641512323	1.8417024198642	0.33984309221374	93	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2021-10-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.85	32.96	38.405	6.3647186666667	0.0143	0.0643	2.7	2.7643	F	F	11.85	188.85	76	347.19591319679	2.209804309714	0.35083391350535	93	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2021-10-17 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.23	33.86	38.545	6.395168	0.0171	0.0671	2.7	2.7671	F	F	11.23	188.23	76	347.21530222866	2.220500189923	0.32667855376245	93	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2021-10-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	18	98	42.75	34.04	38.395	5.7423933333333	0.0233	0.0733	2.7	2.7733	F	F	10.75	187.75	76	346.79931028186	1.9914580473671	0.30845767901959	93	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	DRY	L
2021-10-17 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	41.31	34	37.655	5.5951213333333	0.0141	0.0941	2.7	2.7941	F	F	9.31	186.31	76	346.70536325556	1.9398585743322	0.25668291427977	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	18	98	40.38	34.47	37.425	5.739489053572	0.0126	0.1226	2.7	2.8226	F	F	8.38	184.38	76	346.79745793773	1.9904402136402	0.22582298911729	93	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	35.76	33.76	34.76	16.673882918798	0.0631	0.2131	2.7	2.9131	F	F	3.76	163.76	76	353.6754645496	5.8971432871515	0.10654550681574	93	1	4	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	18	98	36.63	33.15	34.89	17.605925522572	0.0318	0.2018	2.7	2.9018	F	F	4.63	180.63	76	354.25295499455	6.236951141785	0.12459374544813	93	1	4	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	18	98	40.34	32.09	36.215	17.662555550713	0.0425	0.2825	2.7	2.9825	F	F	8.34	182.34	76	354.28799873123	6.2576314585414	0.22454439746953	93	1	4	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-16 12:00:07	FORECAST	2022	18	98	41.2	30.37	35.785	16.749545376214	0.0342	0.2942	2.7	2.9942	F	F	9.2	183.2	76	353.7223957562	5.9246893183015	0.25292197992147	93	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	DRY	L
2021-10-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	41.03	32.79	36.91	16.604081681173	0.0867	0.3367	2.7	3.0367	F	F	9.03	183.03	76	353.63216088688	5.8717372844555	0.2471670893316	93	1	4	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2022	18	98	40.61	32.01	36.31	17.085857642006	0.0484	0.3284	2.7	3.0284	F	F	8.61	176.61	76	353.9308912969	6.047212823807	0.23325414349181	93	1	4	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2021-10-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	42.08	31.86	36.97	5.4703787758052	0.0101	0.2801	2.69	2.9701	F	F	10.08	177.08	76	346.62576060531	1.8961742039626	0.28380031344022	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-15 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	42.83	32.63	37.73	6.1123494156162	0.0268	0.2368	2.7	2.9368	F	F	10.83	189.83	76	347.03515587148	2.1212001321893	0.31146353074854	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.18	32.29	37.735	6.1027183469768	0.0212	0.2312	2.7	2.9312	F	F	11.18	189.18	76	347.02901891122	2.1178203606429	0.32476016224601	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	39.21	31.14	35.175	5.4841248716209	0.0175	0.2275	2.7	2.9275	F	F	7.21	185.21	76	346.63453371317	1.9009870676991	0.19015456349486	93	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	38.01	32.88	35.445	5.747815269349	0.0255	0.3255	2.7	3.0255	F	F	6.01	179.01	76	346.8027683458	1.9933582473505	0.15739841617599	93	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	18	98	42.28	28.89	35.585	5.5122580153592	0.0115	0.2915	2.7	2.9915	F	F	10.28	177.28	76	346.65248804587	1.910837955775	0.29106147939986	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	40.93	29.92	35.425	9.9115653469949	0.0204	0.3104	1.9	2.2104	F	F	8.93	177.93	76	349.44436062201	3.4635406154439	0.24381481101476	93	1	4	1	2	3	2	18	DRY	L
2021-10-14 20:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	41.45	30.05	35.75	10.371396715579	0.0205	0.3605	2.05	2.4105	F	F	9.45	182.45	76	349.7343803712	3.627234003907	0.26151127588623	93	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-14 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	41.07	30.67	35.87	10.676490790613	0.0217	0.4217	2.08	2.5017	F	F	9.07	183.07	76	349.9266190798	3.7359883259958	0.24851485986431	93	1	4	1	2	3	2	18	DRY	L
2021-10-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	42.03	30.57	36.3	10.763442971345	0.0251	0.4851	2.08	2.5651	F	F	10.03	183.03	76	349.98138007099	3.7670046254269	0.28199865148184	93	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	37.91	32.31	35.11	10.49180807414	0.0467	0.5567	2.15	2.7067	F	F	5.91	175.91	76	349.81026894244	3.6701422041075	0.15484653742186	93	1	4	1	3	3	2	27	DRY	L
2021-10-14 04:00:13	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.53	28.39	35.96	9.9874728682525	0.0174	0.4674	2.28	2.7474	F	F	11.53	189.53	76	349.49225951967	3.490544459617	0.33828375961979	93	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2021-10-14 00:00:06	FORECAST	2022	18	98	44.02	31.04	37.53	1.5094471267	0.0055	0.4255	2.25	2.6755	F	F	12.02	188.02	76	344.08498956246	0.51937809883564	0.35756901979719	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	43.61	31.15	37.38	1.9151497635623	0.008	0.468	2.33	2.798	F	F	11.61	193.61	76	344.34640733011	0.65947494058179	0.34140516839196	93	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2021-10-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	39.54	31.13	35.335	1.4905943127388	0.0065	0.2365	2.42	2.6565	F	F	7.54	187.54	76	344.07283504843	0.51287301109112	0.19984761403076	93	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	DRY	L
2021-10-13 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.71	35.02	40.865	0.66191450146856	0.0323	0.2723	2.39	2.6623	F	F	14.71	201.71	76	343.5380051026	0.22739278738299	0.46872637036122	93	2	4	2	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2021-10-13 09:28:35	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.7	37.15	41.925	1.8955281464689	0.0323	0.4923	2.28	2.7723	F	F	14.7	189.7	76	344.33377018117	0.65269435315816	0.46830281145465	93	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	DRY	M
2021-10-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.63	35.01	40.82	0	0.0323	0.4923	2.3	2.7923	F	F	14.63	187.63	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46533893037458	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-13 04:00:15	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.56	32.96	39.76	0	0.0328	0.5028	2.33	2.8328	F	F	14.56	182.56	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46237697080091	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.62	29.43	38.025	0	0.0112	0.5612	2.23	2.7912	F	F	14.62	181.62	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46491567183817	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.51	30.5	38.505	0	0.0114	0.5214	2.1	2.6214	F	F	14.51	193.51	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46026255226763	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.47	30.45	38.46	0	0.0114	0.4514	2.11	2.5614	F	F	14.47	196.47	76	343.10999603722	0	0.45857182318589	93	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2021-10-12 12:00:06	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.65	28.24	37.445	0	0.0003	0.4703	2.13	2.6003	F	F	14.65	200.65	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46618556461576	93	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2021-10-12 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.09	29.34	37.715	0	0.0029	0.5429	2.17	2.7129	F	F	14.09	189.09	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44255153171558	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-12 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.11	29.33	37.72	0	0.0029	0.5429	2.13	2.6729	F	F	14.11	194.11	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44339260061764	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	46.29	26.38	36.335	0	0.0013	0.8213	1.86	2.6813	F	F	14.29	194.29	76	343.10999603722	0	0.45097324994584	93	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2021-10-11 20:00:06	FORECAST	2022	18	98	47.94	26.38	37.16	0	0	0.8	1.85	2.65	F	F	15.94	206.94	76	343.10999603722	0	0.52094522820077	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-10-11 16:00:07	FORECAST	2022	18	98	47.93	26.37	37.15	0	0	0.8	1.78	2.58	F	F	15.93	200.93	76	343.10999603722	0	0.52052091929241	93	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2021-10-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2022	18	98	32.86	26.83	29.845	0	0.346	2.766	1.74	4.506	T	F	0.86	191.86	76	343.10999603722	0	0.060012644019678	93	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L
2021-10-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	18	98	27.43	26.76	27.095	0	0.2205	2.6405	1.69	4.3305	T	F	-4.57	175.43	76	343.10999603722	0	0.016355296976166	93	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L
2021-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2022	18	98	32.31	30.62	31.465	0	0.1016	2.4216	1.71	4.1316	T	F	0.31	179.31	76	343.10999603722	0	0.053325514105532	93	1	4	1	5	5	2	75	WET	L