MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 17, 2021

[ Saturday, October 16, 2021 | Index | Today | Monday, October 18, 2021 ]

DAY 17 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/18/2021 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.647
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 194

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 77
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 97

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-18 04:00:09OBSERVATION2022179751.3899636.6299644.0099618.46124916666700.013.183.19FF19.38996194.3899677355.70380541388 6.56673658127720.647224290470396 3411228DRYL
2021-10-18 00:00:01FORECAST2022179735.7635.7635.765.979445333333300.013.183.19FF3.76178.7676346.950455532672.07457128223270.126595888680069614114212DRYL
2021-10-17 12:00:01FORECAST2022179747.7436.141.926.3458040.04770.05773.183.2377FF15.74190.7476347.18386826752.20316077998740.509111465971869634114216DRYL
2021-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST2022179747.6636.4142.0356.16234266666670.07830.08833.183.2683FF15.66190.6676347.06700938382.13874584011820.506007943158739634114216DRYL
2021-10-17 04:00:12FORECAST2022179747.4236.1141.7656.32311038690530.10820.11823.183.2982FF15.42190.4276347.169416127562.1951905411320.496695944135319624124228DRYL
2021-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST2022179743.7435.9239.8317.0201415854650.15250.16253.183.3425FF11.74173.7477354.815642723046.03901247588380.357107947300529624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 20:00:01FORECAST2022179746.5935.340.94517.9316129490140.16020.18023.183.3602FF14.59189.5977355.377765430046.3724965403770.464537823693819624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022179745.0434.6339.83518.0106896419080.23080.25083.183.4308FF13.04188.0477355.426472293286.40147588299250.405257799541129624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 12:00:05FORECAST2022179744.6633.8739.26517.0338403770620.24720.26723.183.4472FF12.66187.6677354.824100679256.04401709290490.390997610781359624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 08:00:03FORECAST2022179744.7934.1439.46516.8736691478660.24050.26053.183.4405FF12.79187.7977354.725188795635.98551547415160.395860676917029624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 04:00:12FORECAST2022179744.5133.5739.0417.3408685149810.27760.28763.183.4676FF12.51181.5177355.013589880416.15624398314750.385407525643039624122214DRYL
2021-10-16 00:00:05FORECAST2022179744.4534.2339.345.80558292386770.25870.26873.183.4487FF12.45181.4577347.791828223412.01913429899460.38317806664069624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022179744.7734.9539.866.57391069395380.19650.21653.183.3965FF12.77192.7777348.279451494342.2895580106630.395111436430879624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022179744.633539.8156.5984052446570.1990.2193.183.399FF12.63191.6377348.294981442912.29819143224060.389877750068499624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST2022179744.4635.5139.9855.84855440318940.19020.22023.183.4002FF12.46192.4677347.819125429732.03423907754550.38354937686079624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022179741.3335.4238.3756.12732290816940.2820.3123.183.492FF9.33187.3377347.996138019182.13228470843940.274050128873429624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 04:00:13FORECAST2022179740.6334.6937.665.93442466791510.26990.28993.183.4699FF8.63180.6377347.873664739412.06443005734760.251843139833579624124228DRYL
2021-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022179740.4934.5837.53510.2754787047980.27460.32462.362.6846FF8.49183.4977350.615381192013.60274088301310.247518391999699614123218DRYL
2021-10-14 20:00:04FORECAST2022179740.1732.7436.45510.6884213859830.33460.39462.492.8846FF8.17187.1777350.874615724713.75029574651070.237783902826649614123218DRYL
2021-10-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022179740.1932.6136.410.9396692893370.39440.48442.492.9744FF8.19188.1977351.032209542653.84017628230170.238386102222569614123218DRYL
2021-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022179739.9531.8835.91511.0314732961120.44570.53572.493.0257FF7.95186.9577351.089768000453.87303740023510.231214992820829614133227DRYL
2021-10-14 08:00:05FORECAST2022179740.1433.6336.88510.7807916299210.5020.5422.613.152FF8.14184.1477350.932566125593.78333087155340.236882167799049614133227DRYL
2021-10-14 04:00:12FORECAST2022179742.9532.2437.59510.4238137011280.43870.47872.743.2187FF10.95191.9577350.708533288493.6557204143950.328869407764289624123221DRYL
2021-10-14 00:00:05FORECAST2022179743.7132.137.9052.01057802814310.37570.45572.73.1557FF11.71189.7177345.369300419560.694391927018730.356019969320979624124228DRYL
2021-10-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022179742.7631.1636.962.35773056924530.4160.5162.763.276FF10.76195.7677345.591875627480.814812529649730.322213751259499624134242DRYM
2021-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2022179741.3433.3337.3351.91845706952320.20890.33892.83.1389FF9.34194.3477345.310204545870.662462803089510.274374236078419624124228DRYL
2021-10-13 12:00:04FORECAST2022179747.2433.9440.591.65045183480190.22290.35292.773.1229FF15.24201.2477345.138199723760.56963397499430.489712848719439624224232DRYL
2021-10-13 09:28:35FORECAST2022179739.1933.2636.2252.95075881313560.44130.50132.733.2313FF7.19189.1977345.971639181861.02087886341080.209317722237129614134236DRYL
2021-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST2022179739.1833.2536.21500.44130.51132.743.2513FF7.18187.1877344.0763607963800.209037965522479614135245DRYM
2021-10-13 04:00:14FORECAST2022179739.1833.1636.1700.44460.52462.773.2946FF7.18182.1877344.0763607963800.209037965522479614135245DRYM
2021-10-13 00:00:03FORECAST2022179741.3330.0435.68500.50640.85642.413.2664FF9.33181.3377344.0763607963800.274050128873429624135252.5DRYMH
2021-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2022179738.9930.8834.93500.47280.61282.493.1028FF6.99192.9977344.0763607963800.203764467260939614135245DRYM
2021-10-12 16:00:03FORECAST2022179738.9830.8234.900.39250.53252.513.0425FF6.98195.9877344.0763607963800.203489124933669614135245DRYM
2021-10-12 12:00:06FORECAST2022179740.9129.1435.02500.42280.55282.543.0928FF8.91199.9177344.0763607963800.260610700858819624235260DRYH
2021-10-12 08:00:04FORECAST2022179741.0330.4235.72500.49570.61572.583.1957FF9.03189.0377344.0763607963800.26441568980519624135252.5DRYMH
2021-10-12 04:00:05FORECAST2022179740.9830.435.6900.49570.58572.573.1557FF8.98193.9877344.0763607963800.262826852489969624135252.5DRYMH
2021-10-12 00:00:05FORECAST2022179740.2627.3533.80500.75150.90152.273.1715FF8.26194.2677344.0763607963800.240500351509889614135245DRYM
2021-10-11 20:00:06FORECAST2022179738.9527.9933.4700.4550.8752.263.135FF6.95204.9577344.0763607963800.202664427913989614235252.5DRYMH
2021-10-11 16:00:07FORECAST2022179738.9427.9733.45500.4550.8552.213.065FF6.94198.9477344.0763607963800.202389972496339614135245DRYM
2021-10-11 12:00:04FORECAST2022179739.3726.9933.1801.68392.48392.174.6539TF7.37205.3777344.0763607963800.214390837401519614255287.5WETM
2021-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST2022179739.3626.9333.14501.68392.46392.144.6039TF7.36194.3677344.0763607963800.214107138788169614155275WETM
2021-10-11 04:00:09FORECAST2022179740.5930.8135.701.63572.35572.164.5157TF8.59192.5977344.0763607963800.250603446995349624155287.5WETM
2021-10-11 00:00:05FORECAST2022179741.6231.5336.57500.35641.89641.393.2864TF9.62191.6277344.0763607963800.283525190859589624155287.5DRYVH
2021-10-10 20:00:04FORECAST2022179740.8333.4237.12500.34391.98391.663.6439TF8.83195.8377344.0763607963800.258089770527349624155287.5DRYVH
2021-10-10 16:00:06FORECAST2022179740.7933.236.99500.33311.99311.733.7231TF8.79195.7977344.0763607963800.256834057529589624155287.5DRYVH
2021-10-10 12:00:05FORECAST2022179746.5541.9844.26500.00560.01561.621.6356FF14.55207.5577344.0763607963800.462992186928639624215220DRYL
2021-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2022179742.3240.8141.5650001.671.67FF10.32201.3277344.0763607963800.307020436784449624215220DRYL
2021-10-10 04:00:13FORECAST2022179742.3142.1242.2150001.691.69FF10.31207.3177344.0763607963800.306678822981379624215220DRYL