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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 12, 2021

[ Monday, October 11, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 13, 2021 ]

DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2021 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.069
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 223

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.43 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-10-13 04:00:12OBSERVATION2022129233.2900622.7100228.0000400.429999999999951.41999999999993.975.3899999999999TF1.29006223.2900682348.85348356404 00.06907452868954792 14245270WETL
2021-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2022129229.7429.7429.7400.02381.01383.974.9838TF-2.26219.7481347.9053064059600.0328802809041189214245270WETL
2021-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2022129241.0729.8835.47500.20411.19413.975.1641TF9.07231.0781347.9053064059600.24148431888769214245270WETM
2021-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2022129242.3225.1433.7300.2441.2343.975.204TF10.32232.3281347.9053064059600.282256804079559224245280WETM
2021-10-12 04:00:04FORECAST2022129243.1825.8634.5200.22071.21073.975.1807TF11.18233.1881347.9053064059600.312105384308649224245280WETM
2021-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2022129242.9526.1934.5700.18971.02973.974.9997TF10.95227.9582348.8534835640400.303989565217349224245280WETM
2021-10-11 20:00:01FORECAST2022129242.627.43500.16021.01023.974.9802TF10.6240.682348.8534835640400.29182344951099224245280WETM
2021-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2022129242.4926.5734.5300.19161.04163.975.0116TF10.49240.4982348.8534835640400.288047155075169224245280WETM
2021-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST2022129242.3826.0934.23500.17021.02023.974.9902TF10.38240.3882348.8534835640400.284294058634769224245280WETM
2021-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2022129242.1926.0434.11500.11940.96943.974.9394TF10.19240.1982348.8534835640400.277866981466819224235260WETM
2021-10-11 04:00:09FORECAST2022129242.2326.0134.1200.12140.97143.974.9414TF10.23234.2382348.8534835640400.279214144522719224235260WETM
2021-10-11 00:00:04FORECAST2022129242.2427.3134.77500.08140.16143.974.1314TF10.24228.2482348.8534835640400.279551430051589224225240WETM
2021-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST2022129242.3127.0334.6700.07410.38413.974.3541TF10.31231.3182348.8534835640400.281917945138119224225240WETM
2021-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2022129242.4226.6234.5200.02120.35123.974.3212TF10.42231.4282348.8534835640400.285656117162369224225240WETM
2021-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2022129242.1326.6734.400.02520.36523.974.3352TF10.13231.1382348.8534835640400.275852198336279224225240WETM
2021-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2022129240.9726.8433.90500.02020.42023.974.3902TF8.97230.9782348.8534835640400.238366349706559214225235WETM
2021-10-10 04:00:12FORECAST2022129241.6525.7133.6800.03470.52473.974.4947TF9.65235.6582348.8534835640400.259996800301789224235260WETM
2021-10-10 00:00:03FORECAST2022129242.5126.7834.64500.02261.02263.844.8626TF10.51245.5182348.8534835640400.288732037807389224245280WETM
2021-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2022129243.7228.0635.8900.010.963.964.92TF11.72250.7282348.8534835640400.331516140183589224235260WETM
2021-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2022129242.9827.9935.48500.01431.07433.965.0343TF10.98248.9882348.8534835640400.305042808737229224245280WETM
2021-10-09 12:00:04FORECAST2022129238.1325.8932.0100.01881.07883.965.0388TF6.13244.1382348.8534835640400.159496744227989214245270WETM
2021-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2022129237.6825.5431.6100.00711.04713.914.9571TF5.68243.6882348.8534835640400.148776142410839214245270WETL
2021-10-09 04:00:13FORECAST2022129242.4326.0934.2600.00261.07263.94.9726TF10.43247.4382348.8534835640400.285997115782739224245280WETM
2021-10-09 00:00:04FORECAST2022129243.3624.3733.86500.00271.07273.864.9327TF11.36243.3682348.8534835640400.318521345365389224245280WETM
2021-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2022129243.6724.5734.1200.00371.02373.844.8637TF11.67255.6782348.8534835640400.329698682157139224245280WETM
2021-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2022129243.6524.3133.9800.00051.14053.865.0005TF11.65254.6582348.8534835640400.328972819648359224245280WETM
2021-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2022129243.6524.2433.94500.00051.18053.855.0305TF11.65249.6582348.8534835640400.328972819648359224245280WETM
2021-10-08 08:00:05FORECAST2022129239.5324.1731.8500.00051.14053.824.9605TF7.53247.5382348.8534835640400.195988917871759214245270WETL
2021-10-08 04:00:06FORECAST2022129242.9223.2633.09001.383.895.27TF10.92248.9282348.8534835640400.302937944626459224245280WETM
2021-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2022129241.2321.7831.505001.453.95.35TF9.23238.2382348.8534835640400.246518730750969214245270WETL
2021-10-07 20:00:04FORECAST2022129240.7423.1331.93500.04351.49353.865.3535TF8.74247.7482348.8534835640400.231279294750389214245270WETL
2021-10-07 16:00:04FORECAST2022129240.6723.7932.2300.04351.66353.925.5835TF8.67249.6782348.8534835640400.229145888916319214255287.5WETM
2021-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST2022129243.6224.2233.9200.26421.77423.925.6942TF11.62253.6282348.8534835640400.3278852339744492242552100WETM
2021-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022129243.6324.2233.92500.25481.43483.865.2948TF11.63248.6382348.8534835640400.328247601063889224245280WETM
2021-10-07 04:00:07FORECAST2022129245.0223.9734.49500.02461.27463.855.1246TF13.02245.0282348.8534835640400.38005122116899224245280WETM
2021-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022129242.223.6932.94500.00781.63783.95.5378TF10.2247.282348.8534835640400.2782034749286492242552100WETM
2021-10-06 20:00:04FORECAST2022129243.1924.2433.715001.663.955.61TF11.19255.1982348.8534835640400.3124603603319592242552100WETM
2021-10-06 16:00:04FORECAST2022129240.123.1731.635001.513.865.37TF8.1252.182348.8534835640400.212189622984599214255287.5WETL
2021-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2022129239.4925.7332.6100.08651.85653.845.6965TF7.49244.4982348.8534835640400.194880864404329214255287.5WETM
2021-10-06 08:00:04FORECAST2022129240.1426.1133.12500.03651.53653.975.5065TF8.14240.1482348.8534835640400.213355114773149214255287.5WETM
2021-10-06 04:00:07FORECAST2022129240.0426.0433.0400.03651.77654.065.8365TF8.04252.0482348.8534835640400.210448368400829214255287.5WETM
2021-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2022129241.8722.2232.045001.724.225.94TT9.87251.8782348.8534835640400.2672052139854292242552100WETH
2021-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST2022129239.9221.3830.65001.484.355.83TF7.92255.9282348.8534835640400.206991079863089214245270WETL
2021-10-05 16:00:04FORECAST2022129241.5822.2131.895001.824.46.22TT9.58260.5882348.8534835640400.2577243982484492242552100WETL
2021-10-05 12:00:04FORECAST2022129230.6322.0226.32500.00791.67794.195.8679TF-1.37244.6382348.8534835640400.0400243002745729214255287.5WETL
2021-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022129222.9221.1922.055001.494.255.74TF-9.08237.9282348.8534835640400.00573269981651089214245270WETL
2021-10-05 04:00:09FORECAST2022129222.0321.1921.61001.494.265.75TF-9.97235.0382348.8534835640400.00442143163121849214245270WETL