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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 4, 2021

[ Sunday, January 3, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 5, 2021 ]

DAY 96 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/05/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.508
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 26

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.66 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -188

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-05 07:00:07OBSERVATION202196-18832.0500424.5199228.28498126.543382083331.664.2710.5614.83TT0.05004000000000326.050044355.00736813505 44.9238330283120.5079120294445688 31151212.5WETL
2021-01-05 03:00:07OBSERVATION202196-18832.0500424.5199228.28498126.543382083331.664.2710.5614.83TT0.05004000000000326.050044355.00736813505 44.9238330283120.5079120294445688 31151212.5WETL
2021-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202196-18832.5221.3826.95127.706767694140.80953.419510.5613.9795TT0.5226.524355.7240563008945.4283694212340.530779678525198831151212.5WETL
2021-01-04 07:00:07FORECAST202196-1883222.0627.03128.18090664370.99853.608510.5614.1685TT0264356.0155363698545.6343942311310.505474291361348831151212.5WETL
2021-01-04 03:00:07FORECAST202196-18832.4622.6227.54127.873676402631.34643.956410.5614.5164TT0.4626.464355.8267045765245.5008688764340.527864221467588831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST202196-18832.9123.4228.165110.247949663221.62523.475210.5614.0352TT0.9128.914344.7429872801338.0072075084080.549683015006098831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 18:59:26FORECAST202196-18834.522.9928.745110.513220144841.77143.621410.5614.1814TT2.530.54344.9135037378238.1175019695060.625154735352798831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST202196-18833.4822.6728.075110.450344156911.75293.602910.5614.1629TT1.4829.484344.8730973006138.0913522873120.577097832222218831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202196-18834.5121.9928.25110.545379967321.69253.542510.5614.1025TT2.5130.514344.9341683358638.13087870240.625617699538158831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 07:00:08FORECAST202196-18832.6622.8727.765111.40249665491.79553.725510.5614.2855TT0.6628.664345.4842952231538.4878130429180.537575728674868831151212.5WETL
2021-01-03 03:00:07FORECAST202196-18832.2522.9427.595113.267678024312.21514.245110.5614.8051TT0.2527.254346.6773017389439.2673329917010.517649382506158831151212.5WETL
2021-01-02 22:57:06FORECAST202196-18835.3520.4727.91114.65404102922.33965.459610.5616.0196TT3.3530.354347.5603920573939.8492034510720.663801165798168831151212.5WETL
2021-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST202196-18831.5120.926.205115.944833021452.46035.610310.5616.1703TT-0.4924.514348.379814397240.3928394083280.48160685036558821151210WETL
2021-01-02 15:00:06FORECAST202196-18832.0521.5926.82114.839252928932.36415.384110.5615.9441TT0.04999999999999726.054347.6781336810339.9270971316540.507910080918878831151212.5WETL
2021-01-02 11:00:05FORECAST202196-18830.9521.2726.11123.514430515212.28845.418410.5615.9784TT-1.0523.954353.1314577489243.6168309008640.454415253631768821151210WETL
2021-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18832.3422.627.47123.157118467592.12295.532910.5616.0929TT0.3429.344352.9092116894443.4632815923410.52202898210698831151212.5WETL
2021-01-02 03:00:07FORECAST202196-18834.6224.3629.49124.339597496582.35175.961710.5616.5217TT2.6229.624353.6439367973443.9719447584890.630698225028878831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 23:00:06FORECAST202196-18834.8727.1731.02125.889493259512.46346.253410.1216.3734TT2.8733.874354.6036180035844.6408697784590.642159122886858831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 19:00:06FORECAST202196-18837.5728.7833.175123.569588305272.22355.943510.1216.0635TT5.5740.574353.1657476121943.6405460359630.756163191591938841151215WETL
2021-01-01 15:00:06FORECAST202196-18838.7930.8934.84120.802598862542.0926.06210.1216.182TT6.7941.794351.4396592953542.4548241862420.800401422000468841151215WETL
2021-01-01 11:01:31FORECAST202196-18833.6828.9431.31123.383982636031.75226.072210.1216.1922TT1.6839.684353.0503432869743.5607574257640.586636231416338831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18836.428.9432.67121.646284952251.66876.108710.1716.2787TT4.441.44351.9672491000642.8155082778840.70921834637768841151215WETL
2021-01-01 02:57:22FORECAST202196-18836.6126.2531.43122.179661781931.57796.077910.416.4779TT4.6141.614352.3002075775843.0439202075340.717946573159028841151215WETL
2020-12-31 23:00:05FORECAST202196-18833.6426.9730.305119.829486799242.37826.74829.416.1482TT1.6440.644350.8297286537842.0397463384980.58473244681698831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 19:00:06FORECAST202196-18835.2427.4531.345120.05576795152.50036.84039.4916.3303TT3.2445.244350.9716925107842.136176073620.658886101310728831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 15:00:06FORECAST202196-18836.7327.4532.09119.534615266642.56147.22149.4116.6314TT4.7345.734350.6446102045141.9141685761180.722876894178458841151215WETL
2020-12-31 11:00:05FORECAST202196-18835.5229.2232.37119.650696029062.17876.80879.4116.2187TT3.5242.524350.7175015073241.9635931649230.671342187298028831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18835.5229.2232.37109.207565275092.17876.33879.8516.1887TT3.5245.524344.0731158431537.5753872578440.671342187298028831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 03:00:07FORECAST202196-18838.2731.5834.925106.883793685172.23476.364710.3216.6847TT6.2748.274342.570503026236.6152349680760.782165001710158841151215WETL
2020-12-30 23:00:05FORECAST202196-18837.5728.4933.0396.659296154861.94696.25699.7115.9669TT5.5753.574335.8526848112332.4632841255740.756163191591938841151215WETL
2020-12-30 19:00:06FORECAST202196-18837.5728.4933.0396.3045156185961.94696.376910.0916.4669TT5.5756.574335.6164363914632.3213783403190.756163191591938841151215WETL
2020-12-30 15:00:07FORECAST202196-18837.2428.2932.76597.6195055531021.94287.03289.5216.5528TT5.2452.244336.4910216136932.8480871529860.743348643005288841151215WETL
2020-12-30 11:00:06FORECAST202196-18834.8728.6131.7496.6357466246831.22645.49649.3214.8164TT2.8753.874335.8370097708932.4538601834110.642159122886858831151212.5WETL
2020-12-30 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18834.8728.6131.7492.5598718648561.22645.47649.4814.9564TT2.8755.874333.1098521208130.8326052292230.642159122886858831151212.5WETL
2020-12-30 03:01:29FORECAST202196-18833.7526.8130.2898.6076808399991.22815.49819.7115.2081TT1.7556.754337.1463263198733.2452173421280.589962933248128831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 22:57:19FORECAST202196-18834.6327.2430.935123.700623928791.59365.62369.9315.5536TT2.6358.634353.2471890779543.6968976900320.631158976772748831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 19:00:05FORECAST202196-18834.6327.2430.935122.761900910671.59365.61369.8215.4336TT2.6357.634352.6631535685743.2935991132270.631158976772748831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 15:00:07FORECAST202196-18834.0125.2629.635123.850274438371.59445.614410.2115.8244TT2.0155.014353.3401669470943.7612766464970.602260873353068831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 11:00:05FORECAST202196-18835.6226.2230.92128.05332391111.2365.43610.2715.706TT3.6250.624355.9371385543845.5789336952940.675745974331168831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18835.6226.2230.92127.945560254221.2365.43610.4815.916TT3.6246.624355.8708994902745.5321016134550.675745974331168831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 02:57:37FORECAST202196-18835.8925.2930.59128.55047330081.04475.44479.9815.4247TT3.8956.894356.2424866130445.7951402639610.687512721143628831151212.5WETL
2020-12-28 22:57:31FORECAST202196-18830.1523.7526.95106.402015529050.95294.742910.3815.1229TT-1.8556.154342.2578608499136.4169262250910.41596860658158821151210WETL
2020-12-28 19:00:06FORECAST202196-18830.1523.7526.95105.307906313440.79534.635310.5615.1953TT-1.8553.154341.5464336987735.967539841640.41596860658158821151210WETL
2020-12-28 15:00:06FORECAST202196-18835.4327.1331.28105.474526169170.54554.175510.3414.5155TT3.4359.434341.6549032735636.0358890361520.667358322628548831151212.5WETL
2020-12-28 10:59:33FORECAST202196-18829.7626.728.23116.306234035950.68054.68059.6514.3305TT-2.2445.764348.6087584949940.54537185250.397490346578348821151210WETL
2020-12-28 07:00:07FORECAST202196-18829.7627.8328.795113.567398314830.48544.48549.3113.7954TT-2.2447.764346.8684821697539.3929510774330.397490346578348821151210WETL
2020-12-28 03:00:07FORECAST202196-18830.9430.6130.775108.447312844610.27554.47559.5414.0155TT-1.0656.944343.5824921240737.2605980113090.453931244449988821151210WETL