MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 26, 2021

[ Monday, January 25, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 27, 2021 ]

DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/27/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 17.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 16.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.024
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -166

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-27 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021118-16617.5899215.0816.33496120.819968333330.131.155.586.73TT-14.4100816.5899226371.21600106996 44.85030549410.02384193521126489 1114126WETL
2021-01-27 03:00:08OBSERVATION2021118-16617.5899215.0816.33496120.819968333330.131.155.586.73TT-14.4100816.5899226371.21600106996 44.85030549410.02384193521126489 1114126WETL
2021-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2021118-16621.531417.765121.727499222020.1121.1325.586.712TT-10.4720.5326371.737935013245.2507291951130.069036483543276891114126WETL
2021-01-26 07:00:07FORECAST2021118-16620.8514.2117.53121.125490541510.09621.11625.586.6962TT-11.1519.8526371.3918456007644.985019481510.058357136208044891114126WETL
2021-01-26 03:00:07FORECAST2021118-16620.3114.8517.58121.037984939890.0861.1065.586.686TT-11.6919.3126371.3414953453344.9464263211650.050835425242735891114126WETL
2021-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2021118-16622.915.9319.415116.545739189650.09180.12185.585.7018TF-9.123.926368.7415892348942.9752610873470.095024288352597891112123WETL
2021-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2021118-16622.7815.218.99116.571135214430.09550.12555.585.7055TF-9.2223.7826368.7563708283342.9863487650110.092495139222328891112123WETL
2021-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2021118-16622.7115.9319.32116.552784600740.09130.12135.585.7013TF-9.2923.7126368.7456900668242.9783369868090.091042914290765891112123WETL
2021-01-25 10:59:14FORECAST2021118-16622.9213.8118.365116.812938204670.10330.13335.585.7133TF-9.0823.9226368.897062960243.0919498194550.095450702719253891112123WETL
2021-01-25 07:00:08FORECAST2021118-16623.215.5519.375116.581366984780.1060.1665.585.746TF-8.823.226368.7623258952342.9908160453520.10156856703914891112123WETL
2021-01-25 03:00:08FORECAST2021118-16623.2615.5519.405116.85084495430.10870.21875.585.7987TF-8.7424.2626368.9191110215443.1085098426560.10291577221123891112123WETL
2021-01-24 23:00:05FORECAST2021118-16623.0113.5318.27115.579124247210.09550.58555.586.1655TF-8.9923.0126368.1782678060942.5537217598820.097386945513709891113124.5WETL
2021-01-24 19:00:06FORECAST2021118-16623.915.219.55115.255182199890.08370.52375.586.1037TF-8.127.926367.9891720398142.4126590710340.11809676243808891113124.5WETL
2021-01-24 15:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.0915.919.995115.530239934080.08620.57625.586.1562TF-7.9128.0926368.1497423708942.5324280677770.12289327369503891113124.5WETL
2021-01-24 11:00:05FORECAST2021118-16624.215.9120.055116.946781743580.08820.59825.586.1782TF-7.828.226368.9749021595743.1504273517150.12573163691455891113124.5WETL
2021-01-24 07:00:07FORECAST2021118-16623.9815.8619.92117.50884688630.09070.64075.586.2207TF-8.0224.9826369.3014928534343.3961925785970.12010000928111891113124.5WETL
2021-01-24 03:00:07FORECAST2021118-16624.0515.7519.9117.670883774170.09580.70585.586.2858TF-7.9528.0526369.395558626943.4671018458810.12187233286421891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 23:00:06FORECAST2021118-16623.7715.9119.84118.631140887110.11980.74985.596.3398TF-8.2329.7726369.9522139535243.8878532150170.11489194529998891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 19:00:05FORECAST2021118-16624.551419.275119.032258779320.14610.79615.596.3861TT-7.4530.5526370.1843378810444.0638779027050.13506476723087891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 15:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.5716.220.385119.691693599680.20490.88495.596.4749TT-7.4331.5726370.5654342678244.3536044170180.13561203473971891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 11:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.4415.2419.84119.751413148540.19350.85355.596.4435TT-7.5631.4426370.5999154995444.3798635937980.13208180404116891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2021118-16619.815.0517.425120.22735103560.19070.83075.66.4307TT-12.226.826370.8745285124444.5892621296270.044458512372648891113124.5WETL
2021-01-23 03:00:07FORECAST2021118-16624.5715.2419.905120.134603941290.17030.83035.596.4203TT-7.4328.5726370.821040092244.5484387845720.13561203473971891113124.5WETL
2021-01-22 22:56:11FORECAST2021118-16623.7917.8220.805120.664390639910.30060.99065.66.5906TT-8.2134.7926371.1264052552944.781741540510.11538093892408891114126WETL
2021-01-22 19:00:05FORECAST2021118-16623.7917.8420.815120.872510957120.30460.97465.596.5646TT-8.2131.7926371.2462519043844.8734666511020.11538093892408891113124.5WETL
2021-01-22 15:00:05FORECAST2021118-16623.7917.8420.815120.97138240980.30460.97465.596.5646TT-8.2131.7926371.3031651044144.9170571758130.11538093892408891113124.5WETL
2021-01-22 10:56:13FORECAST2021118-16622.2214.9618.59120.810658305570.21730.98735.596.5773TT-9.7832.2226371.210640503444.8462018492480.08134625953319891113124.5WETL
2021-01-22 07:00:07FORECAST2021118-16622.2214.9618.59117.694068069680.21730.99735.66.5973TT-9.7834.2226369.4090144255243.4772496893490.08134625953319891114126WETL
2021-01-22 03:00:07FORECAST2021118-16622.2214.9618.59117.73149477040.21730.99735.66.5973TT-9.7834.2226369.4307346189843.4936326008180.08134625953319891114126WETL
2021-01-21 23:00:06FORECAST2021118-16622.7513.8518.3113.19161681330.09190.84195.656.4919TT-9.2531.7526366.7809408530841.5165277114620.091870679187959891113124.5WETL
2021-01-21 19:00:06FORECAST2021118-16622.7513.8518.3113.21806426210.09190.86195.656.5119TT-9.2531.7526366.7964661056941.5279858706640.091870679187959891113124.5WETL
2021-01-21 15:00:06FORECAST2021118-16622.7513.8518.3113.24406671050.09190.90195.656.5519TT-9.2533.7526366.8117291162541.5392519222340.091870679187959891113124.5WETL
2021-01-21 11:02:05FORECAST2021118-16621.5515.4118.48113.662963520980.09920.91925.656.5692TT-10.4530.5526367.0574757907141.7208404809020.069371913765065891113124.5WETL
2021-01-21 07:02:06FORECAST2021118-16621.7315.3318.53113.603554955780.09920.75925.726.4792TT-10.2735.7326367.0226395436241.6950766014070.072447317429089891113124.5WETL
2021-01-21 03:00:08FORECAST2021118-16623.8114.319.055113.465195844190.03590.62595.846.4659TT-8.1936.8126366.9414875590941.6350877492490.11587140519105891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 23:02:04FORECAST2021118-16624.6518.4121.53122.309705607390.35070.92075.946.8607TT-7.3540.6526372.0721372582945.5080335727730.13781623971547891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 19:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.5418.3521.445121.582724863810.35070.95075.876.8207TT-7.4641.5426371.6547538519345.1867976819070.13479170055021891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 15:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.4317.0320.73120.316628012470.24330.75335.926.6733TT-7.5739.4326370.9260037711944.6285660158920.13181288927086891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 10:56:08FORECAST2021118-16626.7115.3321.02120.194871340710.00310.60315.976.5731TT-5.2947.7126370.8557984960144.5749649861850.20295710792167891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 07:00:08FORECAST2021118-16626.7115.3321.02120.289827802860.00310.60315.996.5931TT-5.2947.7126370.9105525505844.6167664965730.20295710792167891113124.5WETL
2021-01-20 02:59:20FORECAST2021118-16626.116.4421.27120.945124154830.0130.6636.096.753TT-5.948.126371.2880515052444.9054794865080.18199027804154891113124.5WETL
2021-01-19 23:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.317.1820.74119.60551330850.1121.2526.317.562TT-7.743.326370.5156657528744.3157163912120.1283512512515891114126WETL
2021-01-19 19:00:06FORECAST2021118-16624.3117.1820.745118.923680109120.08911.24916.347.5891TT-7.6941.3126370.1215275582244.0162141448330.12861527545691891114126WETL
2021-01-19 15:02:02FORECAST2021118-16623.1617.0920.125119.336865033810.03281.20286.327.5228TT-8.8440.1626370.3604533239244.1976554321770.10067757031563891114126WETL
2021-01-19 10:56:11FORECAST2021118-16619.4117.318.355116.776163586730.03520.97526.277.2452TT-12.5940.4126368.8756713625443.0758857421970.040029129338128891113124.5WETL
2021-01-19 07:00:09FORECAST2021118-16619.3518.4518.9118.960644957590.03240.97246.227.1924TT-12.6540.3526370.1429128379344.032439637680.03938055628137891113124.5WETL
2021-01-19 03:00:08FORECAST2021118-16617.7817.417.59120.743201130190.00831.18836.117.2983TT-14.2235.7826371.17179594344.8164708114010.02522313504031891114126WETL